科技行业 | 行业追踪 苹果 2024 春季发布会：稳步 沈岱 浦 构建 AI 技术护城河 首席科技分析师 银 tony_shen@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6435 际 北京时间5月7日，苹果发布新款iPad系列及M4芯片。 马智焱 苹果发布搭载 M4 芯片的 iPad 系统，有望加速其 AI 护城河的搭 科技分析师 建。距离上次苹果发布的iPad Pro 时隔约一年。在该产品品类创 ivy_ma@spdbi.com 新放缓的情况下，苹果iPad 产品更新迭代时间超过一年一迭代。 (852) 2809 0300 苹果发布 iPad Air 的上一个更新版本已是在两年前。但是，M4 芯 片的更新周期较此前 M1-M3 缩短，我们认为这种趋势将会帮助 黄佳琦 行 iPad 的更新周期缩短。在去年 10 月底M3 芯片发布 6 个月之后， 科技分析师 业 搭载更加强大 AI 能力的 M4 就正式发布。M4 的 NPU 性能从 M3 sia_huang@spdbi.com 追 的18TOPS 大幅提升至38TOPS。我们认为苹果正在加速AI端的投 (852) 2809 0355 踪 入，并将 A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) with a target price of HKD 14.0, representing a potential upside of 27.3% from the current price of HKD 11.0 [4][5][22]. Core Views - Despite a weaker-than-expected EBITDA growth in Q1 2024, the report expresses optimism for a double-digit growth in organic EBITDA for the full year 2024, driven by strong product mix improvements in China, stable unit costs, and potential growth in South Korea [3][4]. - The report highlights that the increase in expense ratio in Q1 2024 is primarily due to marketing timing and base effects, and expects the expense ratio to remain stable year-on-year for the full year [3][4]. - The report notes that Budweiser's brand continues to drive product mix improvements in China, with a 3.7% increase in average selling price despite a 6.2% decline in volume [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with a 4.8% decline in volume but a 4.6% increase in average selling price [3][18]. - The report projects 2024 revenue of USD 7.18 billion, reflecting a 4.7% year-on-year growth [12][13]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at USD 1.099 billion, representing a 28.9% year-on-year increase [12][13]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the Chinese market is experiencing a shift towards premium and super-premium products, which is expected to continue driving revenue growth [3][4]. - In South Korea, price increases from the previous year are expected to support significant EBITDA growth in the coming quarters, despite a slight decline in volume [3][4]. Valuation - Budweiser APAC's current EV/EBITDA is 6.8x, which is significantly lower than industry peers, suggesting a high valuation discount [3][4]. - The report estimates a target price of HKD 14.0 based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with a focus on the East Asia and West Asia segments [19][22].

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call is related to the investment strategies of the "Puyian Sheng Fund" focusing on the A50 Enhanced Index [1] Core Points and Arguments - The session aims to discuss market hotspots, long-term trends, and investment strategies [1] - The specific theme of the discussion is "Smart Investment Directly in A50 Enhanced Index" [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call emphasizes the importance of regular engagement with investors to share insights and strategies [1]

Global Market Trends - Global capital positioning adjustments are likely underway, with significant net inflows observed in markets such as the US, Japan, and India, while net inflows have decreased in recent months [1][24] - The European market transitioned from net outflows to net inflows in March, indicating a shift in global capital towards less crowded markets [1][24] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, particularly as it is perceived to be undervalued compared to other markets [1][36] Northbound Capital Flows - In April, northbound capital recorded a net inflow of RMB 6 billion, a decrease from RMB 22 billion in March, while the average daily trading volume of northbound capital in A-shares increased to 15.4% [2][33] - Northbound capital favored low-valuation and defensive sectors such as banks, food and beverage, and capital goods, with significant interest in index-weighted stocks and gold-related stocks [2][33][46] Southbound Capital Flows - Southbound capital maintained strong inflows, totaling HKD 80.4 billion in April, reflecting continued interest from mainland investors in Hong Kong stocks [17][63] - The inflows were primarily directed towards traditional high-dividend stocks and quality growth stocks, with notable investments in Tencent and other defensive sectors [17][49] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese market is highlighted for its attractive valuation and strong earnings growth, which may continue to draw foreign capital back [16][28] - Domestic incremental capital recorded a net inflow of USD 3.17 billion from April 4 to May 1, indicating a potential recovery in market confidence [13][16] Sector Performance - In April, sectors such as banking, energy, and software services received significant net inflows from southbound capital, while retail and semiconductor sectors experienced net outflows [74] - Northbound capital showed a preference for sectors with low valuations and defensive characteristics, including banks and materials, while reducing exposure to media and telecommunications [69][74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Qingdao Beer [4][6][15]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer faced challenges in sales and revenue compared to peers, with a 7.6% year-on-year decline in sales volume in Q1 2024, while the average selling price increased by 2.6%, indicating a slowdown in product structure improvement [4][10]. - The company's gross margin improved due to a 1.0% decrease in unit cost and a 12% reduction in sales expenses, leading to a 10% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [4][10]. - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of product structure upgrades and cost reduction trends in 2024, given the weak performance in mid-to-high-end products [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 34,756 million, reflecting a 2.4% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 5,006 million, a 17.3% increase [9][11]. - The report adjusts the target price for Qingdao Beer A-shares to RMB 86.2 and H-shares to HKD 65.1, based on a valuation of 15x and 10x EV/EBITDA for 2024, respectively [4][6][15]. - Key financial metrics include a projected PE ratio of 23.7 for A-shares and 14.8 for H-shares in 2024 [9][11].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance on Interest Rates - In April, the Federal Reserve shifted from a dovish to a hawkish stance regarding interest rate cuts, indicating no immediate urgency for rate reductions due to strong economic conditions[1] - The Fed's previous dovish signals included a focus on balancing inflation and growth, and the potential for job growth to coexist with declining inflation[1] - The Fed's current position is influenced by persistently high inflation rates and robust domestic demand reflected in Q1 GDP data[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Projections - The first quarter's GDP growth showed resilience, with key indicators like retail sales and industrial production exceeding market expectations[7] - Non-farm payrolls in April fell to 175,000, below the market expectation of 240,000, indicating a potential softening in the labor market[31] - The core CPI inflation rate has consistently exceeded expectations, with a March reading showing a rebound, raising concerns about the Fed's confidence in further inflation declines[6] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Scenarios - The Fed is expected to consider rate cuts starting in Q3, with a probability of 60% for a reduction of 50-75 basis points if economic momentum weakens significantly[36] - If labor market data continues to decline unexpectedly, rate cuts could begin as early as July[36] - There remains a 30% chance that rate cuts could be delayed until Q4, and a 10% possibility that no cuts will occur throughout the year[36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer with a target price of RMB 87.3, representing a potential upside of 24.0% from the current price of RMB 70.4 [2][4]. Core Insights - Chongqing Beer achieved a 5% year-on-year sales growth in Q1 2024, making it one of the few Chinese beer players to report positive sales growth during this period. The high-end product segment saw an impressive 8.3% revenue growth, significantly outperforming mainstream products [2][10]. - The improvement in product structure is attributed to the strong performance of the Lebao brand, which has reinvigorated sales and revenue growth for Chongqing Beer [2]. - A notable decrease in unit costs by 3.3% year-on-year contributed to a significant expansion in gross margin by 2.7 percentage points [2][10]. - Despite the positive trends, the company anticipates additional depreciation costs from the Foshan factory starting in Q2 2024, which may offset some benefits from raw material cost reductions [2][10]. - The report indicates that the operating profit for Q1 2024 grew by 19% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin increase of 2.5 percentage points [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the projected revenue is RMB 15,742 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3%. The net profit is expected to reach RMB 1,481 million, with a growth rate of 10.8% [3][8]. - The report outlines a consistent improvement in gross profit margin, expected to be 43.6% in 2024, up from 42.7% in 2023 [3][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 63.8% in 2024 from 74.5% in 2023, indicating a potential shift in profitability dynamics [3][9]. Market Expectations - The report highlights that despite uncertainties surrounding the sales performance of the Wusu brand, the overall market confidence in Chongqing Beer is expected to improve due to the sustained growth of Lebao and other brands [2][10]. - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, with a decrease in expected revenue and net profit compared to previous estimates, reflecting a more conservative outlook [11].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the April Politburo meeting released positive policy signals, which are expected to improve market sentiment. The meeting emphasized the continuation of proactive fiscal policies and stable monetary policies, reducing the likelihood of sudden policy withdrawal [2][9] - The meeting highlighted the need to address the real estate market by promoting the digestion of existing properties and optimizing new housing policies, which is anticipated to lead to a recovery in the real estate sector, particularly benefiting well-capitalized and stable real estate companies in core cities [2][3] - The report suggests that emerging industries such as advanced manufacturing, renewable energy, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, aerospace, and low-altitude economy are expected to become new engines of economic growth in China, presenting potential long-term investment opportunities [3][10] Group 2 - The meeting called for the expansion of domestic demand through large-scale equipment upgrades and a consumption renewal program, with a focus on sectors such as building materials, medical equipment, and the automotive supply chain, which could create more consumption scenarios to meet diverse consumer needs [10][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of advancing the integration of the Yangtze River Delta region, which is expected to benefit infrastructure, green energy, modern services, and emerging industries, particularly in the context of external pressures on China's production capacity [19][10]

Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on April 30, 2024, indicated that the economy is recovering but still faces significant challenges, reducing the likelihood of a sudden withdrawal of policy stimulus[3] - The annual GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 4.9% amid ongoing policy support for the real estate sector[3] Real Estate Policy - The meeting highlighted the need for more specific measures to digest existing housing stock and optimize new housing supply, indicating potential upgrades in support for the real estate industry[3] - The government reiterated the importance of localized policies and responsibilities among local governments, real estate companies, and financial institutions to ensure housing delivery and protect buyers' rights[3] Investment and Consumption - The government is expected to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds, with over 30 trillion yuan in special bonds and 1 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term treasury bonds planned for issuance in the second to fourth quarters[3] - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs is estimated to boost economic growth by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points this year[5] Monetary Policy - The meeting emphasized the continuation of a prudent monetary policy, with flexible use of interest rates and reserve requirements to support the real economy and reduce financing costs[5] - Future monetary policy direction may become more cautious, depending on economic recovery and target achievement[5] Risks - Key risks include the real estate sector's inability to stabilize, a sharp decline in exports, and geopolitical uncertainties[6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the policy interest rate unchanged, indicating a neutral overall tone[1] - The statement noted that "economic activity continues to expand steadily," with the addition of "continues" compared to the previous meeting[1] - The analysis of inflation highlighted a lack of further progress towards the 2% inflation target in recent months[1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Balance - The statement indicated that the risks to achieving employment and inflation targets are "moving toward better balance," reflecting slight dissatisfaction with the progress made in the first quarter[1] - Powell ruled out the possibility of an interest rate hike, stating that the next action is unlikely to be an increase[1] - There are two potential paths for triggering a rate cut: significant decline in inflation towards 2% or unexpected weakness in the labor market[1] Group 3: Economic Data and Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed announced a reduction in the monthly redemption cap for Treasury bonds from $60 billion to $25 billion, which was higher than market expectations[1] - The company maintains the view that the first rate cut will occur in the third quarter, expecting a total reduction of 50-75 basis points for the year[2] - There is a 30% probability that rate cuts may be delayed until the fourth quarter, and a 10% chance that there will be no cuts at all this year[2]