[Table_Title] 每日复盘 证券研究报告 2024 年 12 月 11 日市场全天窄幅震荡，大消费板块表现 活跃 报告要点： 2024 年 12 月 11 日市场全天窄幅震荡，大消费板块表现活跃。上证指数 上涨 0.29%，深证成指上涨 0.33%，创业板指下跌 0.11%。市场成交额 17760.97 亿元，较上一交易日减少 4237.90 亿元。全市场 3913 只个股上涨， 1434 只个股下跌。 风格上看，各指数涨跌幅排序为：消费>周期>成长>稳定>0>金融；中盘 成长>小盘价值>中盘价值>小盘成长>大盘成长>大盘价值；中证全指表现优 于基金重仓。 分行业看，30 个中信一级行业普遍上涨；表现相对靠前的是：商贸零售 （3.70%），纺织服装（2.75%），综合（2.65%）；表现相对靠后的是：银行 （-1.18%），非银行金融（-0.65%），电力设备及新能源（-0.24%）。概念板 块方面，多数概念板块上涨，退税商店、赛马、AI 眼镜等大幅上涨；同步磁 阻电机、人脑工程、蚂蚁等板块走低。 资金筹码方面，主力资金 12 月 11 日净流出 278.30 亿元。其中超大单净 流出 55.49 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the media sector, including JiBit, KaiYing Network, and ShenZhou TaiYue, while recommending "Hold" for others like Perfect World and Visual China [7][11]. Core Insights - The media industry saw a monthly increase of 6.65% in November 2024, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [3][38]. - The AI sector is highlighted as a key investment theme, with significant developments in AI products and models, which are expected to drive growth in the media sector [5][44]. - The gaming market in China reached a total scale of 29.083 billion yuan in October 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.4% [55]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media industry ranked fourth among sub-industries with a 6.65% increase in November 2024, while the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.66% and 1.42%, respectively [3][38]. - All sub-sectors within the media industry experienced growth, with digital media leading at 13.18% [38]. AI Sector - The Wind AI Index rose by 9.15% in November, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 by 8.49 percentage points [44]. - Major AI developments include the release of new models by companies like Quark and Tencent, which are expected to enhance the competitive landscape [46][48]. Gaming Industry - The gaming market's total revenue for October 2024 was 29.083 billion yuan, driven by new game releases [55]. - The mobile gaming segment saw a 17.07% year-on-year increase, with popular titles contributing to revenue growth [55]. Film and Television - The total box office for November 2024 reached 1.877 billion yuan, with the top film "Good Things" earning 341 million yuan [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for box office growth driven by upcoming releases during the Spring Festival [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI as a primary investment theme, anticipating continued prosperity in model iterations and applications [5]. - In the gaming sector, it recommends investing in companies with robust product pipelines, such as KaiYing Network and Perfect World [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [8]. Core Insights - The automotive industry continues to show strong performance within the Shenwan first-level industry categories, ranking fifth in revenue growth and seventh in net profit growth for the first three quarters of 2024. However, the industry remains heavily reliant on policy support [3][16]. - The first half of 2024 experienced a price reduction trend and the implementation of "old-for-new" policies, with the fourth quarter expected to see increased support for these policies. The third quarter is viewed as a period of natural development, making it a key reference point for assessing industry performance [3][4]. - The motorcycle and auto parts sectors are experiencing rapid growth, while the automotive service sector shows signs of recovery. The passenger vehicle segment is facing revenue growth without profit growth, indicating competitive pressures [4][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the automotive sector's revenue growth was 4.28%, ranking fifth among 31 industries, while net profit growth was 9.17%, ranking seventh. However, the third quarter saw a decline in both revenue and profit growth, with revenue decreasing by 0.25% and net profit by 10.13% [16][19]. - The sales margin for the automotive sector was 16.44% for the first three quarters, with a slight increase to 16.96% in the third quarter [16][28]. 2. Sector Differentiation - The motorcycle sector showed both revenue and profit growth, while the automotive service sector experienced declines in both. The auto parts sector's profit growth significantly outpaced revenue growth, reflecting its resilience amid competitive pressures [4][34]. - For the first three quarters, the revenue for automotive parts, automotive services, motorcycles, passenger vehicles, and commercial vehicles was 981.82 billion, 84.95 billion, 64.67 billion, 1,327.82 billion, and 246.72 billion respectively, with varying growth rates [34]. 3. Revenue Growth Slowdown, Profit Growth Remains Strong - The majority of automotive companies reported revenue growth in the 0-20% range, while net profit growth was predominantly above 30%. This trend highlights the strong resilience of the auto parts sector [5][47]. - Companies with high revenue and profit growth are often led by top-tier automakers, with significant contributions from new business areas such as flying cars and international expansion [5][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring the continuity of the "old-for-new" policy and the potential implementation of subsequent policies. It maintains an optimistic outlook for the automotive industry, anticipating steady growth in revenue and profit under stable macroeconomic conditions [6][66]. - Attention is drawn to leading automakers and their supply chain opportunities, as well as the motorcycle sector and the potential rebound in the automotive service sector [6][67].

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in policy tone, indicating a more proactive approach to economic management, with expectations for significant policy support in 2025 [5][6]. - The meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, reflecting a higher requirement for the smooth operation of these sectors [8][10]. - The report anticipates a series of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and enhancing consumption, addressing current demand deficiencies [6][10]. Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy will be more active and effective, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment efficiency [6][10]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be more aggressive, with an emphasis on increasing government spending and utilizing special bonds effectively [6][10]. - Monetary policy is projected to be moderately loose, potentially leading to interest rate cuts and increased liquidity through new tools [6][10]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the real estate market has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in new housing transactions, marking a positive shift after a prolonged decline [8][10]. - The capital market is also expected to benefit from policy support, with a focus on attracting long-term funds and enhancing market stability [8][10]. - The emphasis on technological innovation and comprehensive reform is seen as a pathway to developing new productive forces, which will drive future economic growth [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Bozhon Precision Industry Technology with a "Buy" rating [1][3] Core Views - Bozhon Precision has been deeply involved in the intelligent manufacturing equipment sector for over 20 years, with a diversified business layout spanning semiconductors, automotive electronics, new energy, and low-altitude economy [2][10] - The company has established stable strategic partnerships with globally renowned clients, including Apple, CATL, and SAIC Motor, with a significant portion of revenue tied to the Apple supply chain [2][14] - Bozhon Precision has actively entered the low-altitude economy sector, leveraging government policy support to develop solutions for smart city governance and urban management [2][15] - The company's revenue has grown steadily, with a CAGR of 23.1% from 2019 to 2023, reaching RMB 4.84 billion in 2023 [2][17] Business Overview - Bozhon Precision's core business is in consumer electronics, contributing 76.39% of total revenue in 2023, with a 4.2% YoY growth [12] - The new energy sector is a strategic focus, generating RMB 840 million in revenue in 2023, accounting for 17.38% of total revenue [12] - The semiconductor sector is an emerging growth area, with the company focusing on advanced packaging, optoelectronics, and AI computing power [12] - Key components and smart warehousing logistics are also important business segments, with applications across multiple industries [12] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 5.11 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.04 billion in 2026, with net profit projected to increase from RMB 420 million to RMB 640 million [2][22] - The company's gross margin has shown signs of recovery, reaching 34.78% in Q1-Q3 2024, up from 33.79% in 2023 [18] - R&D expenses remain high, with a 11.70% R&D expense ratio in Q1-Q3 2024, reflecting continued investment in innovation [18] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's PE ratio is expected to decline from 30x in 2024 to 20x in 2026, indicating potential valuation upside [2][26] - Compared to peers such as Quick Intelligent and Opt Machine, Bozhon Precision's valuation is relatively attractive, with lower PE multiples projected for 2024-2026 [27] Industry Trends - The low-altitude economy has been elevated to a national strategic level, with Bozhon Precision well-positioned to benefit from this emerging sector [15] - The company is expected to benefit from the AI upgrade trend in smartphones and the ongoing automation trend in manufacturing [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the automotive and automotive parts industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of the HI model in the automotive industry, driven by Huawei's collaboration with various car manufacturers, particularly in the electric vehicle sector. The HI model is gaining traction alongside the successful smart selection model [2]. - The report discusses the modular automotive hardware ecosystem proposed by Xiaomi, aiming to enhance the integration of smart devices within vehicles, indicating a trend towards more collaborative efforts in the automotive sector [3]. - The report emphasizes that the future of the automotive industry may not be limited to a few dominant players, as new partnerships and collaborations are emerging to share costs and benefits, particularly in the electric vehicle market [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 3.56%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.12 percentage points. The automotive services sector had the highest weekly increase at 5.14% [17][20]. Sales Data Tracking - In November 2024, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.446 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 20.281 million units, up 5% [26]. - The new energy vehicle market saw retail sales of 1.277 million units in November, a 52% increase year-on-year, with cumulative sales for the year reaching 9.605 million units, up 41% [26]. Industry News - GAC Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Huawei to develop a new high-end smart electric vehicle brand, leveraging both companies' strengths in hardware and software [39]. - Seres announced a significant acquisition of the "Wenjie Super Factory," enhancing its production capabilities in the electric vehicle sector [40]. - The establishment of the "ZEEKR Technology Group" following the integration of ZEEKR and Lynk & Co aims to cover various driving forms and smart technology fields [43]. Future Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the ongoing transformation of state-owned enterprises in China, particularly in their self-research and collaborative efforts to enhance value, with specific attention to companies like Dongfeng Group, SAIC Group, and GAC Group [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Saiteng Co Ltd (603283 SH) with a target price of 72 38 RMB [6][9] Core Views - Saiteng Co Ltd has diversified its business into consumer electronics semiconductors and new energy sectors through strategic acquisitions [3] - The company is deeply integrated into Apple's supply chain with over 50% of its revenue coming from Apple-related business [3] - Saiteng has entered the high-end semiconductor inspection equipment market through the acquisition of Japan's Optima and is well-positioned to benefit from the AI-driven demand for HBM and other advanced semiconductor technologies [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries [5] Business Segments Consumer Electronics - Saiteng's consumer electronics business is closely tied to Apple with over 50% of its revenue coming from Apple-related products [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in Apple's supply chain and the launch of new products such as the iPhone 15 series and Apple Vision Pro [3][5] - Revenue from consumer electronics is projected to grow from 46 19 billion RMB in 2024 to 60 00 billion RMB in 2026 with a stable gross margin of around 48% [107] Semiconductor Equipment - Saiteng entered the semiconductor equipment market through the acquisition of Japan's Optima in 2019 and has since expanded its product line to include HBM and other advanced semiconductor technologies [4][5] - The company has secured batch orders from major clients and is expected to see significant growth in its semiconductor business with revenue projected to increase from 5 80 billion RMB in 2024 to 12 99 billion RMB in 2026 [107] - The gross margin for the semiconductor business is expected to improve from 48 5% in 2024 to 50% in 2026 [107] New Energy - Saiteng's new energy business is focused on the automotive and photovoltaic sectors with revenue expected to grow from 0 56 billion RMB in 2024 to 0 67 billion RMB in 2026 [107] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in the new energy vehicle market and the increasing demand for photovoltaic equipment [5][107] - The gross margin for the new energy business is expected to remain stable at around 25% [107] Financial Projections - Saiteng's total revenue is projected to grow from 52 64 billion RMB in 2024 to 73 79 billion RMB in 2026 with a CAGR of 18 39% [6][107] - Net profit is expected to increase from 8 11 billion RMB in 2024 to 11 66 billion RMB in 2026 with a CAGR of 18 13% [6][107] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decline from 18x in 2024 to 13x in 2026 indicating potential undervaluation compared to industry peers [6][113] Industry Insights - The global semiconductor equipment market was valued at 1 062 5 billion USD in 2023 with China being the largest market at 366 6 billion USD [4][78] - The demand for HBM and other advanced semiconductor technologies is expected to grow significantly driven by the AI boom [5][97] - The new energy vehicle market in China is expected to continue its rapid growth with sales reaching 944 8 million units in 2023 and the photovoltaic market is projected to reach 507 GW globally by 2024 [100][103]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, emphasizing the coexistence of traditional and innovative sectors within the market [7]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is currently in a transitional phase characterized by three concurrent industry curves: traditional fuel vehicles, emerging new energy vehicles, and future industries represented by autonomous driving [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of brand strength and technological innovation in the new energy vehicle sector, predicting a significant increase in market penetration [3][4]. - The report suggests that traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers should focus on transformation and collaboration to enhance their market position and valuation [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition and Transformation - The automotive industry is entering a critical phase where both maintaining existing operations and innovating for the future are essential [63]. - The lifecycle theory indicates that the industry is in a late growth phase, with traditional, emerging, and future industries coexisting [63][64]. - The report emphasizes the need for companies to prepare for the next growth curve while managing the current competitive landscape [63][78]. 2. New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle sector is expected to reach a 50% market penetration by 2025, marking a shift towards mainstream adoption [3][4]. - Brand loyalty is becoming increasingly important, with companies like Hongmeng Zhixing and Xiaomi being highlighted as key players [3][4]. - The report encourages investment in companies that are leading in brand development and technological innovation within the new energy vehicle space [3][4][9]. 3. Future Industries - The report discusses the potential of autonomous driving, robotics, and flying cars as future growth areas, suggesting that these sectors will require significant investment and innovation [9]. - It highlights the importance of policy support and technological advancements in driving the development of these future industries [9][78]. - The report advises stakeholders to monitor developments in autonomous driving technologies and related market opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The report gives an initial rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5][56]. Core Views - The company is positioned to achieve sustainable high-quality growth by focusing on the societal trends of "unmanned and less manpower" and targeting specific sectors such as finance, logistics, unmanned retail, catering, lottery, healthcare, transportation, and government services [3][12]. - The company has improved its operational efficiency and profitability through a management theme centered on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" [3][15]. - The company has a stable growth trajectory, with a strategic focus on "one body and two wings" and eight business segments, promoting both domestic and international business development [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. R&D and Business Strategy - The company leverages its core technologies and innovative spirit to provide integrated solutions across various sectors, maintaining a strategic focus on "one body and two wings" [12][13]. - The company has established a global marketing service network and has formed strategic partnerships with numerous international and industry-leading enterprises [13][12]. 2. Revenue Stability and Profitability Improvement - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 2.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.65% [15][31]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 30.76% in 2023, with a net margin of 2.45% [15][31]. 3. Business Segments and Financial Performance - The company's main products include key components, printing and scanning products, smart self-service terminals, smart financial devices, and logistics equipment, with respective revenue contributions [19][31]. - The revenue from key components was 0.261 billion yuan in 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.29% [23][19]. - The smart self-service terminal segment generated revenues of 0.382 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 18.52% [25][19]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.344 billion, 2.473 billion, and 2.597 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 0.047 billion, 0.053 billion, and 0.059 billion yuan respectively [56][56]. - The report anticipates an EPS of 0.06, 0.07, and 0.08 yuan per share for the same period, with corresponding P/E ratios of 111.48, 98.44, and 87.96 [56][56].

Industry Overview - Machine vision is a core technology in modern industry, enabling machines to "see" and "cognize" through simulating human vision systems, with applications in recognition, measurement, positioning, and inspection [2] - The global machine vision market is expected to exceed 120 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 13.22% from 2022 to 2025 [3] - The Chinese machine vision market is projected to reach 56.565 billion yuan by 2027, driven by the rise of domestic manufacturers and increasing demand in industries like 3C electronics, new energy, and logistics [3] Market Growth and Domestic Players - Domestic machine vision manufacturers, such as Hikrobot, Opt, and Lingyun Guang, have gained competitiveness, with local brands surpassing foreign brands in market share since 2020 [3] - The 3C electronics sector accounts for 25% of China's machine vision application market, followed by automotive, lithium battery, and semiconductor industries [38] - The machine vision market in China is expected to grow steadily, with applications expanding into new energy, AI, autonomous driving, and facial recognition technologies [40] Investment Recommendations - Opt is recommended for its comprehensive machine vision core hardware and software products [4] - Lingyun Guang is highlighted as a leading provider of configurable vision systems and intelligent vision equipment [4] - Tianzhun Technology is noted for its focus on visual measurement, inspection, and intelligent driving solutions [4] - Hikrobot, currently in the application stage, is a global provider of machine vision and mobile robotics solutions, focusing on industrial IoT and smart logistics [4] Key Companies - Opt has a complete product line covering visual algorithm libraries, industrial cameras, and 3D sensors, serving over 15,000 clients globally [74] - Lingyun Guang has a strong presence in consumer electronics, new energy, and media industries, with clients including Apple, Huawei, and CATL [78] - Tianzhun Technology specializes in visual measurement and inspection equipment, serving over 5,000 industrial clients worldwide [82] - Hikrobot's machine vision business accounts for over 50% of its revenue, with a growing focus on mobile robotics and smart logistics solutions [86]