珀莱雅（603605.SH） 化妆品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 06 日 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 分析师：张前 执业证书编号：S0740524080002 Email：zhangqian08@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |-------------------|-----------| | | | | 基本状况 | | | 总股本 (百万股) | 396.25 | | 流通股本(百万股 ) | 395.41 | | 市价(元 ) | 97.24 | | 市值(百万元 ) | 38,531.11 | | 流通市值 (百万元) | 38,449.18 | 相关报告 1、《24H1 业绩超预期，强品牌驱动 持续高增长》2024-09-09 深耕大单品策略，未来增长可期。 ①大单品源力面霜 2.0 首次将 XVII 型重组胶 原蛋白应用其中，进一步巩固了品牌在基底膜修护抗初老领域的专业性；红宝 石精华 3.0 将中国美妆领域首款专利环肽新原料与专研双 A 组合结合，实现进 阶抗皱。②针对油皮上新"净源 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a positive trend in RevPAR during the National Day holiday, indicating a recovery in performance [1] - The opening structure of the company continues to optimize, with a focus on enhancing the proportion of standard brands [1] - The company is expected to maintain stable performance in the upcoming quarters, driven by the recovery of business travel demand [1] Financial Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported revenue of 5,089 million in 2022, with a projected increase to 7,809 million in 2024 and 8,939 million in 2026 [1] - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to rise from -582 million in 2022 to 850 million in 2024 and 1,061 million in 2026 [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to improve from -0.52 in 2022 to 0.76 in 2024 and 0.95 in 2026 [1] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: ROE is expected to recover from -5% in 2022 to 7% in 2024 and 8% in 2026 [1] Operational Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 21.6 billion in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 3.7 billion, down 9.5% year-on-year [1] - The hotel management business saw a year-on-year growth of 8% in Q3, while the scenic area business declined by 9% [1] Store Opening and Structure - The company opened a total of 385 new stores in the first three quarters, with a net increase of 273 stores [1] - The proportion of standard brand hotels has increased, contributing positively to revenue [1] Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - **Operating Cash Flow**: The operating cash flow is projected to be 2,158 million in 2024, increasing to 2,444 million in 2026 [4] - **Debt Ratios**: The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.7, indicating a stable financial structure [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights that passive and northbound funds have significantly increased their holdings in the banking sector during Q3 2024, with passive funds surpassing northbound funds for the first time, becoming the dominant pricing power in the market [2] Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Bank Stock Holdings Changes - Passive funds accounted for a substantial portion of the inflow, with inflows of 620.99 million, while active and northbound funds had inflows of 13.87 million and 135.07 million respectively, representing 4.83%, 0.11%, and 1.05% of the total trading volume in Q3 [2] - The proportion of institutional holdings in bank stocks, ranked from highest to lowest, is as follows: passive funds (1.94%) > northbound funds (1.91%) > active funds (0.52%) [2] Active Funds - Active funds increased their holdings in bank stocks, with a rise of 0.09 percentage points to 2.93%, marking three consecutive quarters of increases, and a narrowing low allocation gap of 8.70% compared to Q2 [2] - Notable increases in holdings were observed in quality city and rural commercial banks, with Jiangsu, Shanghai, Ningbo, and Chongqing showing increases of 0.76, 0.33, 0.30, and 0.27 percentage points respectively [2] - Major net inflows into active funds were recorded for Jiangsu, Bank of China, and Ningbo, with inflows of 10.99 million, 9.11 million, and 4.14 million respectively [2] Passive Funds - Passive funds significantly increased their holdings in the banking sector, with total holdings reaching 1671.7 million, a 59.1% increase from Q2, representing 1.94% of the total market capitalization of listed banks [2] - The growth in passive fund holdings was driven by a substantial increase in ETF sizes, with a total growth of 1.03 trillion, including a 456.1 billion increase in the CSI 300 index, leading to significant inflows into banks with high weights in this index, such as Industrial Bank, China Merchants Bank, and major state-owned banks [2] - The largest inflows in Q3 2024 were seen in China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Bank of Communications, and Agricultural Bank, with inflows of 122.97 million, 73.34 million, 55.81 million, 43.37 million, and 40.50 million respectively [2] Northbound Funds - Northbound funds continued to increase their holdings in the banking sector, with total holdings reaching 1646.4 million, a 7.34% increase from Q2 [2] - The proportion of northbound funds in the total market capitalization of listed banks decreased slightly by 4 basis points to 1.91% [2] - Major inflows from northbound funds were observed in China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, ICBC, and Pudong Development Bank, with inflows of 27.25 million, 16.05 million, 15.58 million, and 15.49 million respectively [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality city and rural commercial banks with debt repayment benefits, particularly those with strong fundamentals and low valuations [2] - If economic expectations continue to improve, core assets within the banking sector are recommended [2] - In a scenario of weak economic recovery with debt repayment benefits, high dividend yield stocks, particularly large banks, are advised [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (downgraded) [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was under pressure, with revenue of 720 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 465 million yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year [2][3] - The overall market environment for medical aesthetics is weak, impacting terminal institutions and customer acquisition due to stricter marketing regulations [3] - The company has a robust pipeline with several products in clinical trials and approvals, indicating potential for future growth [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit of 1.59 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year [2] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 3.16 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to reach 2.06 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 94.55%, showing a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 0.65 percentage points to 64.65% [3] Pipeline and Product Development - The company successfully obtained approval for its second-generation Bonida product in October 2024, aimed at improving moderate chin retrusion [4] - The company is advancing its weight loss pipeline, with Liraglutide entering clinical trials and Semaglutide set to begin trials soon [4] - The company has expanded its medical device portfolio through partnerships and acquisitions, enhancing its market position in the medical aesthetics sector [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.9 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 258 million yuan, down 43% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company has opened 1,149 new hotels in the first three quarters, achieving over 95% of its target, with a pipeline of 3,986 hotels [1][2]. - Despite the pressure on earnings due to domestic and overseas factors, the company is expected to improve its performance in Q4 2024, with a focus on operational improvements and a strong pipeline for future growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the hotel business revenue decreased by 7% to 3.84 billion yuan, while the restaurant business revenue fell by 9% to 59 million yuan [3]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters was 10.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.55% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.1 billion yuan, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for 2024-2026 projects net profits of 1.2 billion, 1.25 billion, and 1.49 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [4][5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.13 yuan in 2024, 1.17 yuan in 2025, and 1.39 yuan in 2026 [2][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company’s RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) in Q3 2024 decreased by 8.4%, with occupancy rates showing slight growth but average daily rates declining [3]. - The company is actively expanding its hotel network, with a significant number of new openings planned, indicating a positive outlook for future growth despite current challenges [1][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongchang Biologics is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the third quarter reached 4.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.6% [1] - The total revenue for the first nine months of 2024 was 12.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57.1% [1] - The net loss for the third quarter was 2.9 billion yuan, which is a decrease in loss by 32.6% compared to the previous quarter [1] - The company continues to see robust growth in revenue, aligning with expectations, and maintains strong profitability [1] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 772 million yuan - 2023A: 1,083 million yuan - 2024E: 1,608 million yuan - 2025E: 2,167 million yuan - 2026E: 2,880 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: 40%, 2024E: 48%, 2025E: 35%, 2026E: 33% [1][2] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: -999 million yuan - 2023A: -1,511 million yuan - 2024E: -1,025 million yuan - 2025E: -776 million yuan - 2026E: -587 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: -51%, 2024E: 32%, 2025E: 24%, 2026E: 24% [1][2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: -1.83 yuan - 2023A: -2.78 yuan - 2024E: -1.88 yuan - 2025E: -1.43 yuan - 2026E: -1.08 yuan [1][2] - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow for 2023A: -1,502 million yuan - Net profit for 2023A: -1,511 million yuan [3] Research and Development - The company is advancing its international research and development efforts, with significant clinical trials ongoing for key products such as Taitasip and Vidisizumab [1] - The early pipeline aligns with industry development trends and demonstrates differentiation [1]

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 4.3% in October 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 3.2%, ranking 28th among 31 sub-industries [2][3] - The report highlights a significant drop in fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector, with the top ten A-share funds holding a 9.69% share in Q3 2024, down 2.07 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][3] - The report suggests that the market will focus on investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector as short-term pressures ease, particularly looking towards 2025 for potential improvements in fundamentals [2][3] October Review - The pharmaceutical sector's performance was characterized by volatility, with a nearly 40% increase in late September followed by a decline post-National Day [2][3] - Sub-sectors such as chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and traditional Chinese medicine saw declines of 2.67%, 3.68%, and 4.48% respectively in October [2][3] - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector is currently at a historical low in terms of fund holdings, suggesting potential for recovery as market sentiment shifts [2][3] Q3 2024 Summary - In the first three quarters of 2024, pharmaceutical companies reported a 0.3% decline in revenue and a 7.4% drop in total profit, with a 4.6% decrease in net profit excluding non-recurring items [2][3] - Q3 2024 saw a 0.5% increase in revenue, but total profit fell by 13.0%, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability despite some stabilization in revenue [2][3] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical industry has faced challenges due to regulatory actions, difficulties in new product admissions, and macroeconomic pressures affecting both hospital and outpatient services [2][3] Sector Performance - Among the sub-sectors, chemical preparations and raw materials showed positive performance, with revenue growth rates of 4.46% and 3.46% respectively for Q1-Q3 2024 [3] - The report ranks the performance of various sub-sectors, with chemical preparations leading in net profit growth at 48.97%, while biological products faced a significant decline of 34.28% [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining market share and operational efficiency in a challenging environment, highlighting the need for companies to focus on revenue stability [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth areas such as innovative drugs and the GLP-1 sector, with specific companies like Kangfang Biotech and Aier Eye Hospital recommended for investment [2][3] - It also highlights the potential for recovery in companies that can identify turning points in their performance, particularly in the raw materials and CRO/CDMO sectors [2][3] - The report advises investors to consider companies with strong earnings prospects, particularly in traditional Chinese medicine and blood products, as potential investment opportunities [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that passive and northbound funds are the main drivers of the recent rally in bank stocks, with passive funds now holding a larger share than northbound funds for the first time [2][5]. - The banking sector's total market capitalization is approximately 124,740.24 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of 123,553.12 billion [2]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality city commercial banks with strong fundamentals and low valuations, particularly Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Active Fund Allocation in the Banking Sector - Active funds have increased their holdings in bank stocks for three consecutive quarters, with a slight increase of 0.09 percentage points to 2.93% [4][8]. - The report ranks the banking sector 13th among all industries in terms of fund allocation, reflecting a growing interest [8]. 2. Active Fund Holdings in Individual Bank Stocks - Active funds have notably increased their positions in quality city commercial banks, with Jiangsu, Shanghai, Ningbo, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Banks seeing significant increases in their holding ratios [2][4]. 3. Passive Fund Allocation in the Banking Sector - Passive funds have significantly increased their holdings in the banking sector, with the total market value of bank stocks held by passive funds rising to 1,671.7 billion, a 59.1% increase from the previous quarter [2][4]. - Major banks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Agricultural Bank have received substantial inflows from passive funds [2][4]. 4. Northbound Fund Allocation in the Banking Sector - Northbound funds continue to increase their holdings in the banking sector, with significant inflows into shareholding banks and large banks [5]. 5. Summary of Fund Flows - The report concludes that passive and northbound funds are the primary forces behind the recent upward trend in bank stocks, with passive funds now holding a higher proportion than northbound funds [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [1][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue in Q3 2024, driven by successful expansion in downstream customer segments, particularly in the new energy sector [1]. - The gross margin has seen a decline due to intensified industry competition and product structure changes, but the company is actively working on improving profitability through technology development and supply chain optimization [1]. - The company plans to invest up to 1 billion RMB in establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hungary, enhancing its overseas presence and core competitiveness [1]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 3,836 million RMB - 2023A: 3,880 million RMB - 2024E: 4,787 million RMB - 2025E: 5,867 million RMB - 2026E: 6,942 million RMB - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: 2023A: 1%, 2024E: 23%, 2025E: 23%, 2026E: 18% [1][2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: 1,007 million RMB - 2023A: 1,024 million RMB - 2024E: 1,140 million RMB - 2025E: 1,384 million RMB - 2026E: 1,638 million RMB - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: 2023A: 2%, 2024E: 11%, 2025E: 21%, 2026E: 18% [1][2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 4.47 RMB - 2023A: 4.55 RMB - 2024E: 5.06 RMB - 2025E: 6.15 RMB - 2026E: 7.28 RMB [1][2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E: 2023A: 28.3, 2024E: 25.5, 2025E: 21.0, 2026E: 17.7 - P/B: 2023A: 6.2, 2024E: 5.0, 2025E: 4.1, 2026E: 3.3 [1][2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the film capacitor market, actively pursuing opportunities in various sectors including new energy, industrial control, and consumer electronics [1]. - The strategic investment in Hungary is aimed at enhancing the company's global footprint and fostering collaboration with international markets [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Panjiang Coal and Electric Power (600395 SH) [2] Core Views - The company's coal business is expected to recover gradually, with improved profitability in Q3 2024 despite a significant decline in sales volume [3] - The power generation business showed strong growth in Q3 2024, with a 7877 64% YoY increase in power generation and the successful grid connection of the Puding 1 unit [3] - The report forecasts revenue growth of 17 5% in 2025 and 11 2% in 2026, with net profit expected to increase by 87 6% in 2025 [6] Financial Performance - In 2024 Q3, the company reported revenue of 2 403 billion yuan (+3 50% YoY, +14 60% QoQ) and a net loss of 2 million yuan (-101 36% YoY, -113 10% QoQ) [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 6 449 billion yuan (-15 36% YoY) with net profit of 35 million yuan (-95 45% YoY) [3] - The company's coal sales volume in Q3 2024 was 1 85 million tons (-33 11% YoY, -14 97% QoQ) [3] Business Segments Coal Business - Coal production in Q3 2024 was 2 44 million tons (-13 61% YoY, +0 40% QoQ) [3] - The average coal price in Q3 2024 was 815 yuan/ton (+2 38% YoY, +4 01% QoQ) with a cost of 644 yuan/ton (+18 23% YoY, +2 96% QoQ) [3] - Gross profit per ton of coal was 172 yuan (-31 88% YoY, +8 15% QoQ) [3] Power Business - Power generation in Q3 2024 reached 2 417 billion kWh (+7877 64% YoY, +161 80% QoQ) [3] - The average grid electricity price was 0 363 yuan/kWh (-8 79% YoY, -0 92% QoQ) [3] - The Puding 2*660MW coal-fired power project's first unit was successfully connected to the grid on September 30, 2024 [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 8 844 billion yuan in 2024, 10 393 billion yuan in 2025, and 11 553 billion yuan in 2026 [1][3] - Net profit attributable to parent company is expected to be 380 million yuan in 2024, 712 million yuan in 2025, and 740 million yuan in 2026 [1][3] - EPS is forecasted at 0 18 yuan in 2024, 0 33 yuan in 2025, and 0 34 yuan in 2026 [1][3] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is 31 4x for 2024, 16 8x for 2025, and 16 1x for 2026 [1][3] - The P/B ratio remains at 1 0x across all forecast years [1][3] - ROE is expected to improve from 3% in 2024 to 6% in 2025-2026 [1] Capital Structure - The debt-to-equity ratio is projected to increase from 144% in 2024 to 187 8% in 2026 [6] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to rise from 64 7% in 2024 to 70 4% in 2026 [6] - Current ratio is forecasted to decline from 0 6 in 2024 to 0 4 in 2026 [6]