Group 1: Impact of "Anti-Inner-Loop" Policy on the Market - The "Anti-Inner-Loop" policy has gained significant attention from the central government, particularly in industries facing overcapacity, as highlighted in the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1, 2025 [2][11] - Following the policy announcement, sectors such as photovoltaic and cement have taken measures to reduce production and optimize industry structure, leading to a strong market response with noticeable capital inflow [2][11] - The policy aims to enhance supply structure, stabilize market expectations, and improve overall industry efficiency and competitiveness [11][12] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The current market is in a volatile phase, with investment hotspots concentrated in technology, military industry, and state-owned enterprises, benefiting from stable policies and capital inflow from U.S. markets [5][16] - The technology sector is expected to be a key focus in July, supported by reduced policy uncertainty and domestic planning emphasizing technology [16][17] - The military sector is anticipated to perform well due to increased defense budgets and upcoming high-profile military events [17] - State-owned enterprises and public utilities are seen as having good allocation value in the third quarter, given the weakening internal dynamics of real estate and strict regulatory measures [18] Group 3: Market Overview and Trends - The market has shown a trend of oscillating upward, with major indices such as the Wind All A, CSI 300, and CSI 2000 rising by 1.22%, 1.54%, and 0.59% respectively [8][21] - The steel, banking, and building materials sectors have led the market, indicating a recovery in activity levels [21][23] - The average turnover rate for the entire market has increased, reflecting a rise in trading activity [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is committed to stabilizing the real estate market, with new policies being introduced in Hainan and Guangdong to facilitate the conversion of commercial loans to provident fund loans [9][16] - The report notes a decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with first-hand housing transactions down by 40.8% year-on-year and second-hand housing transactions down by 13.7% year-on-year [7][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of financially stable leading real estate companies, suggesting that investors focus on firms like Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others that can effectively respond to market fluctuations [9] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The real estate index increased by 0.29%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.54%, indicating underperformance of the real estate sector compared to the broader market [6][14] 2. Industry Fundamentals - In the week of June 27 to July 3, a total of 39,921 first-hand homes were sold across 38 key cities, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.8% and a month-on-month increase of 3.1% [7][22] - The total area sold was 4.553 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 33.3% and a month-on-month increase of 21% [7][22] - For second-hand homes, 18,203 units were sold, down 13.7% year-on-year and 10.9% month-on-month, with a total area of 178.6 million square meters sold [36][47] 3. Company Announcements - Poly Developments reported a signed area of 152.33 million square meters in June 2025, a decrease of 26.20% year-on-year, with a total signed amount of 290.11 billion yuan, down 30.95% [20][21] - China Merchants Shekou and Yuexiu Property also reported declines in their sales figures for June 2025, with year-on-year decreases of approximately 29.4% and 39.7% respectively [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that high temperatures are driving an increase in electricity coal demand, with a notable rise in coal prices due to seasonal consumption peaks [8]. - The "anti-involution" policy may lead to tighter domestic coal supply, despite a temporary increase in production levels [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-elasticity coal stocks, particularly during the peak demand season [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Business Tracking - The report discusses the impact of high temperatures on electricity coal consumption, with daily coal consumption reaching 5.733 million tons as of July 3, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 3.28% and a year-on-year increase of 7.52% [8]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to tighten coal supply, as the government aims to eliminate low-efficiency production and promote market consolidation [8]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of power coal at the port increased by 3 CNY/ton week-on-week, with the average price at 628 CNY/ton as of July 4, 2025 [9]. - The report tracks the production levels of coal, indicating a daily average production of 5.661 million tons from 462 sample mines, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.20% [9]. 3. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies are highlighted for their strong performance and potential for growth, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and Guohua Energy [14]. - The report provides insights into dividend policies and growth prospects for various coal companies, indicating a focus on maintaining high dividend payouts and stable earnings [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6 to 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The North Exchange has shown a strong performance with the North 50 Index increasing by 6.84% to close at 1439.63 points as of June 28, 2025, outperforming other major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext [4][12]. - The total market capitalization of the industry reached 846.65 billion yuan, with an average market value of 3.14 billion yuan per listed company [4][12]. - A significant 94% of the 268 listed companies on the North Exchange experienced price increases during the week, with 252 stocks rising and only 16 declining [20]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of June 28, 2025, the North Exchange comprises 268 constituent stocks, with an average market capitalization of 3.14 billion yuan. The North 50 Index has risen by 6.84%, while the Shanghai Composite, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech 50 indices have seen increases of 1.95%, 5.69%, and 3.17%, respectively [4][12]. - The top five performing sectors in the A-share market this week were Computer, Defense Industry, Non-Bank Financials, Communication, and Electronic Equipment/Nonferrous Metals, with gains of 7.70%, 6.90%, 6.66%, 5.53%, and 5.11%, respectively [18]. New Listings on the North Exchange - Guangxin Technology officially listed on the North Exchange on June 26, 2025, becoming the 268th listed company, and saw a remarkable first-day increase of 500% [6][26]. Key News from the North Exchange - The North 50 Index has accumulated a 38.72% increase year-to-date, leading all major A-share indices, surpassing the Hang Seng Index's 21.06% increase [33]. - A total of 26 stocks have doubled in value this year, primarily driven by technology innovation companies [33]. Investment Strategy for the North Exchange - The report suggests focusing on high-quality development in the North Exchange for 2025, with specific attention to sectors such as Data Centers, Robotics, Semiconductors, Consumer Goods, and Military Information Technology [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on strong domestic automotive brands, emphasizing the importance of complete vehicles, intelligent driving, and robotics for the year [6][8]. Core Viewpoints - The report continues to favor strong domestic automotive brands, with a focus on complete vehicles, intelligent driving, and robotics throughout the year [6][8]. - It highlights the potential for significant investment opportunities in the automotive sector, particularly in the context of domestic brand growth and technological advancements [6][8]. Market Tracking - The total insurance volume for the week of June 23-29 reached 585,000 units, exceeding the 400,000 weekly threshold, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.5% and a week-on-week increase of 4.3% [7]. - New energy vehicle insurance volume for the same week was 297,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 39.4% and a week-on-week increase of 4.9%, achieving a penetration rate of 50.8% [7][32]. - The report notes that the overall market remains stable, with some companies experiencing slight declines in deliveries, and anticipates a year-on-year decline in deliveries for July [7][37]. Industry Prosperity - The report tracks terminal data, orders, and export totals, indicating a stable overall situation in June, with some companies showing growth while others experience slight declines [27][46]. - It emphasizes the ongoing trend of domestic brands replacing joint ventures, with market share for domestic brands increasing from 36% in January 2021 to 64% by December 2024 [42]. Stock Tracking - The report recommends several automotive stocks, including Xiaomi, Leap Motor, Xpeng, BYD, Seres, Geely, and Changan, highlighting their potential for growth based on product cycles and market conditions [6][8]. - It notes that the automotive parts sector has shown strong performance, with a weekly increase of 4.6% and a year-to-date increase of 11% [15][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [3][48]. Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 Index has shown a significant increase of 6.84% this week, closing at 1439.63 points, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and the ChiNext [3][14]. - The North Exchange has a total of 268 constituent stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.139 billion [3][14]. - The North Exchange has led the A-share market with a cumulative increase of 38.72% year-to-date, surpassing the Hang Seng Index's increase of 21.06% [43]. Summary by Sections 1. North Exchange Market Overview - The North Exchange 50 Index's performance this week was strong, with a closing increase of 6.84% [3][14]. - The top five performing sectors in the A-share market this week were Computer, Defense Industry, Non-bank Financials, Communication, and Electrical Equipment, with increases of 7.70%, 6.90%, 6.66%, 5.53%, and 5.11% respectively [28][31]. 2. New Stocks on the North Exchange - Guangxin Technology (920037) officially listed on the North Exchange on June 26, becoming the 268th listed company, and saw a remarkable first-day increase of 500% [3][36]. 3. Key News from the North Exchange - The North Exchange has recorded a total of 26 stocks that have doubled in value this year, primarily driven by technology innovation companies [43]. 4. Investment Strategy for the North Exchange - The report suggests focusing on several sectors for the second half of 2025, including: 1. Data Centers: Shuguang Jiaochuang (leading in liquid cooling technology) 2. Robotics: Suzhou Axis (leading in needle roller bearings), Audiwei (ultrasonic sensor "little giant"), JunChuang Technology (benefiting from lightweight trends), and Fuheng New Materials (PEEK materials) 3. Semiconductors: Hualing Co. (leading third-party testing in semiconductors) and Kaide Quartz (domestic leader in 12-inch semiconductor quartz devices) 4. Consumer Goods: Taihu Snow (first silk stock of new national goods), Boshenglong (first creative packaging stock), Lusi Co. (first pet food stock on the North Exchange), Kangbiter (first sports nutrition stock on the North Exchange), and Thunder God Technology (leading in AI + glasses applications) 5. Military Information Technology: Chengdian Guangxin (driven by military aircraft upgrades) and Xingtum Control (rare aerospace measurement and control target benefiting from satellite internet construction) [44].

美国劳动力市场仍稳 点评 2025年5月非农就业数据 证券研究报告/宏观事件点评报告 2025年07月04日 分析师:杨畅 相关报告 报告摘要 总体来看,6月美国新增非农总数偏稳、失业率回落,指向劳动力市场仍稳健运行, 但背后仍存三点隐忧需要关注:第一,行业结构分化较大,州和地方政府新增就业分 别创近 29个月、15个月新高,合计大幅增长 8万人,支撑了非农总体增量的 54.4%, 与此同时,服务业新增就业明显放缓,联邦政府就业连续第五个月萎缩。第二,住户 调查数据显示,整体劳动力人口下降 13.0万人,显示劳动力供给明显减少,这将同时 压低失业率的分子与分母,意味着失业率回落一定程度由于劳动力市场整体萎缩。此 外,外国出生的劳动力人数环比下降 13.4万人,连续第三个月回落,显示特朗普政府 强硬移民政策对劳动力供给的压降作用。第三,时薪增速放缓,居民消费需求仍可能 降温。 对美联储而言,这份超预期的非农数据反映出整体经济形势在短期仍有韧性,这可能 会支持他们在7月议息会议上保持按兵不动继续观望,但9月降息成为大概率事件。 数据公布后,FedWatch 显示市场定价美联储在 2025年将降息 2.1 次/53 ...

政府采购本国商品的经验、重点与效果 ——当前经济与政策思考 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 参考美国、日本和欧盟在推动政府采购本国产品方面的经验： 美国通过《购买美国产品法》、《贸易协定法》、《贝瑞修正案》等立法，确立优先采购 本国产品的原则，同时兼顾国际协定义务，针对中小企业和国防领域设立特殊支持和 例外。 日本名义上遵循世贸组织《政府采购协议》（GPA）透明原则，但通过高门槛技术标 准和合同拆分等隐性手段保护本土企业；其承诺覆盖范围有限，排除多类敏感产品与 服务。 相关报告 欧盟则强调公开竞争，早期以消除壁垒为主，但在 2014 年开始引入"战略性采购" 理念，将绿色、社会责任和创新纳入评标，加大本土中小企业参与力度，又在 2022 年实施《国际采购工具》，针对非互惠第三国设置限制。 从效果来看，即使只考虑 GPA 所覆盖的政府采购合同，美日欧的本国供应占比也均 高于 85%，其中日、美高于 95%。 美国政府采购重点从冷战时期的国防本土化，逐步转向支持技术创新、中小企业、绿 色与基建领域。日本则在保障国防与基建等敏感行业本土化的同时，对高技术 ...

Supply Side - The approach to eliminate outdated production capacity includes market-driven mergers and government guidance, as seen in Japan's steel industry where the number of major companies reduced from six to three, achieving a combined crude steel production share of 71.6% by 2011[8] - Japan's government encouraged mergers through tax incentives, leading to the formation of Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation, the world's second-largest steel company, with a crude steel production share of 80.7% by 2014[8] - China has also implemented market-oriented reforms to promote mergers and capacity elimination, resulting in the establishment of China Baowu Steel Group, the largest steel conglomerate globally[8] Demand Side - Japan's "National Income Doubling Plan" in the 1960s aimed to boost domestic demand, resulting in an annual income growth exceeding 10% and private consumption reaching over 60% of GDP[20] - From 1983 to 1989, Japan's construction investment surged from 27.5 trillion yen to 46.4 trillion yen, driving steel consumption by approximately 10.3 trillion yen[20] - The U.S. "Marshall Plan" from 1948 to 1952 provided $15 billion in aid to Europe, facilitating the export of surplus production and stimulating the U.S. economy[22] Policy Measures - The U.S. has established a comprehensive bankruptcy procedure allowing companies to reorganize during bankruptcy, maximizing value for stakeholders[24] - Japan's legislation in 1978 provided employment assistance for laid-off workers during capacity reduction, including job training and extended unemployment benefits[25] - Risk factors include unexpected fluctuations in overseas economies and potential delays in the update of public data used in the report[26]

Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The first technology innovation green corporate bond on the Beijing Stock Exchange was successfully issued on June 25, 2025, by China Communications First Highway Engineering Group Co., Ltd. with a total issuance scale of 300 million yuan[2] - The bond has a maturity of 60 days and an issuance interest rate of 1.60%, marking a historical low for short-term corporate bonds issued by central state-owned enterprises on the exchange[2][13] - Multiple financial institutions, including SPDB, Xiamen International Bank, Huaxia Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and CITIC Securities, participated in the subscription[2] Group 2: Bond Characteristics and Impact - This bond is characterized by both "technology innovation" and "green" labels, with all raised funds allocated to the green building sector[3][15] - The successful issuance supports the green transformation in infrastructure, promoting a high-quality development path through the integration of technology finance and green finance[3][15] Group 3: Support Measures and Future Outlook - The Beijing Stock Exchange has introduced nine specific measures to support the development of technology innovation bonds, including broadening the range of issuers and simplifying information disclosure[4][18] - The exchange aims to enhance financing support for the technology innovation sector and will continue to innovate bond varieties while strengthening the synergy between equity and bond markets[4][18] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology for investment opportunities in 2025[4][17][20] - Specific companies highlighted include Krait (data center), Suzhou Axis (robotics), and Hualing (semiconductors), among others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance[4][17][20] Group 5: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include policy risk, liquidity risk, macroeconomic environment risk, and the risk of technological innovation not meeting expectations[21][22]