执业证书编号：S0740519080002 Email：xiongxw@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 783.22 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 770.99 | | 市价(元) | 21.21 | | 市值(百万元) | 16,612.15 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 16,352.65 | 调味发酵品Ⅱ 2024-10-27 2024-08-10 2024-04-24 中炬高新（600872.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：熊欣慰 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 5,139 | | 5,519 | 5,633 | 6,079 | 6,479 | | | | 增长率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [3][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.958 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 23.94%, while net profit increased by 16.4% to 384 million yuan [4][5]. - The company is actively focusing on AI applications and has announced plans to issue H-shares for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 29.02%, an increase of 3.08 percentage points year-on-year, with operating cash flow reaching a historical high of 941 million yuan, a 110.67% increase from the previous year [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.208 billion yuan, 4.552 billion yuan, and 5.010 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 6%, 8%, and 10% [3][5]. - Net Profit Forecast: The expected net profits for the same years are 433 million yuan, 505 million yuan, and 607 million yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 17%, and 20% respectively [3][5]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.62 yuan, 0.72 yuan, and 0.86 yuan respectively [3][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue from banking IT products and solutions was 3.461 billion yuan, accounting for 87.45% of total revenue, while non-banking IT products and solutions contributed 371 million yuan, or 9.37% [5]. - Major clients include state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock banks, which contributed 52.49% of total revenue [5]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 9.7%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 8% [3][5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 45.2 in 2023 to 24.2 by 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [3][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3,696 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 11.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 945 million yuan, down 16.02% year-on-year [5] - The company has a healthy cash flow with a cash dividend total of 718 million yuan for 2024, representing 75.94% of net profit, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.57% based on the closing price on April 7, 2025 [5] - The core product revenue showed a decline, with the main titles experiencing a total revenue of 3,788 million yuan in 2024, down 14.92% year-on-year [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: Revenue of 4,185 million yuan, net profit of 1,125 million yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 3,696 million yuan, net profit of 945 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 3,909 million yuan, net profit of 908 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 4,222 million yuan, net profit of 1,063 million yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 4,433 million yuan, net profit of 1,122 million yuan [2][5] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 16.7x for 2025, 14.3x for 2026, and 13.5x for 2027 [5] Business Trends - The company has several new products in the pipeline, including "Wanjian Changsheng" set to launch in January 2025 and "Zhangjian Chuanqi" planned for the first half of 2025 [6] - The company’s overseas revenue has shown significant growth, with a total of 500 million yuan in 2024, up 83.92% year-on-year [5] Cash Flow and Expenses - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 1,249 million yuan, with a cash conversion ratio of 132.2% for net profit [5] - Sales expenses decreased by 13% year-on-year to 980 million yuan, while R&D expenses increased by 11.52% to 758 million yuan due to a rise in personnel [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [5][44]. Core Viewpoints - The company demonstrates resilience in its 2024 performance, achieving a revenue of 18.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.9% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.5% to 1.83 billion yuan [7][12]. - The company is positioned as a leader in differentiated competition within the photovoltaic industry, with significant benefits expected from its production capacity in Indonesia [7][21]. - The magnetic materials business remains robust, with a sales volume of 232,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.9% [7][31]. - The lithium battery segment is rapidly expanding, with revenue growing from 470 million yuan in 2020 to 2.42 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 50.9% [7][35]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1980, is a leading global manufacturer of magnetic materials and has expanded into the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors, forming a dual-driven business model [10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 18.56 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan, with a significant turnaround in Q4, where revenue reached 4.98 billion yuan, up 25.4% year-on-year [7][12]. Photovoltaic Business - The company has established a strong presence in the photovoltaic market, with a production capacity of 23 GW for solar cells and 17 GW for modules by the end of 2024, and expects to ship 20 GW in 2025 [21][26]. - The company has successfully implemented a differentiated product strategy, including the production of all-black modules, which have gained high recognition in markets such as Europe and Japan [23][26]. Magnetic Materials Business - The company is the largest producer of ferrite magnetic materials globally, with a production capacity of 290,000 tons and a sales volume of 232,000 tons in 2024 [31][33]. - The company focuses on developing new materials and continuously iterating products to meet the demands of various applications, including AI servers and electric vehicles [33]. Lithium Battery Business - The lithium battery segment has seen rapid growth, with a sales volume of 530 million units in 2024, primarily driven by demand from electric two-wheelers [35][37]. - The company anticipates continued growth in the lithium battery sector, targeting over 600 million units in 2025 [35]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 25 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits of 1.97 billion yuan and an EPS of 1.21 yuan [42].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][10] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 55.86 billion yuan in 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 960 million yuan, a decrease of 11.33% year-on-year, primarily due to one-time restructuring costs in Europe. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.7% [4][7] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 64.84 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16%. The net profit is projected to reach 1.48 billion yuan, representing a 54% increase year-on-year [2][4] - The company has secured new projects with a total lifecycle value of approximately 83.9 billion yuan, indicating strong future growth potential in its core automotive safety and electronics businesses [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 55.86 billion yuan in 2024, 64.84 billion yuan in 2025, 68.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 71.63 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 0%, 16%, 5%, and 5% [2][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 960 million yuan in 2024, 1.48 billion yuan in 2025, 1.88 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.18 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -11%, 54%, 27%, and 16% respectively [2][9] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.68 yuan in 2024, 1.05 yuan in 2025, 1.34 yuan in 2026, and 1.55 yuan in 2027 [2][9] Business Performance - The automotive safety business generated revenue of 38.62 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2%. The automotive electronics business revenue was 16.6 billion yuan, showing a decline of 1.1% [7] - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 16.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for the automotive safety business was 14.8%, up by 2.0 percentage points, while the automotive electronics business gross margin was 19.7%, down by 0.9 percentage points [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 14,024 million HKD in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1,511 million HKD, up by 12.5% [3][5]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to an increase in property management area and enhanced value-added services, with the gross profit margin rising from 15.9% to 16.6% [5][9]. - The company proposed a dividend of 0.095 HKD per share, an increase from 0.085 HKD in 2023, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [3][5]. Revenue Performance - The company reported a main business revenue of 14,024 million HKD for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7% projected for 2025 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 1,511 million HKD in 2024 to 1,870 million HKD by 2026, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [2][9]. Business Segments - The property management area increased to 431 million square meters, a 7.4% growth year-on-year, with third-party project area contributing 39.4% [7]. - The revenue from property management services rose to 76.1% of total revenue, up from 72.1% in 2023, indicating a strategic focus on core business [7]. Value-Added Services - The non-residential value-added services revenue decreased by 14.7% year-on-year to 1,829 million HKD, while residential value-added services revenue grew by 7.2% to 1,385 million HKD, maintaining its share of total revenue [8][9]. - The company is actively optimizing its service structure in response to the downturn in the real estate sector [8]. Financial Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.46 HKD in 2024 to 0.63 HKD by 2027, reflecting a consistent growth outlook [2][9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decline from 9.9 in 2025 to 7.2 by 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, with a focus on financially stable and well-performing leading companies [2]. Core Views - Recent government policies have been implemented to support the real estate market, including the cancellation of sales restrictions in Nanjing and adjustments to down payment ratios in Tianjin, which are expected to stimulate demand [7][17]. - The real estate market is experiencing structural differentiation, with new home sales declining while second-hand home sales show slight resilience [7][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading real estate companies that can effectively navigate market fluctuations, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Mixc Life [7][19]. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.9%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.37%, indicating that the sector outperformed the broader market by 0.47% [3][13]. - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 1,034.3 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 995.5 billion yuan [8]. Industry Fundamentals Primary Market Analysis - In the week of March 28 to April 3, a total of 31,221 new homes were sold across 38 key cities, representing a year-on-year decline of 33.7% and a month-on-month decline of 15% [5][21]. - The total transaction area for new homes was 3.821 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.9% [5][21]. Secondary Market Analysis - During the same week, 22,398 second-hand homes were sold in 16 key cities, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 10.7% [32]. - The total transaction area for second-hand homes was 2.178 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.5% [32]. Inventory Situation - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 186.291 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a depletion cycle of 156.6 weeks [45][52]. Land Market Analysis - In the week of March 24 to March 30, land supply reached 21.186 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, while the average supply price was 2,715 yuan per square meter, up 223.2% year-on-year [53]. - Land transactions totaled 23.359 million square meters, with a transaction amount of 62.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.4% [53].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][14] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.342 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.474 billion RMB, up 6.8% year-on-year [5][7] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement while expanding the quality of its services [4][6] - The company proposed a final dividend of 1.332 RMB per share, increasing the payout ratio from 40% to 50% of net profit attributable to shareholders [7][11] Revenue Performance - The company reported a revenue of 16.342 billion RMB for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8% projected for 2025 and 2026 [4][8] - The revenue increase was primarily driven by the continuous expansion of property management services [7][10] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin slightly declined from 19.61% in 2023 to 18.26% in 2024, with specific service segments experiencing varying degrees of margin compression [7][10] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 9.0%, with a projected decline in return on equity (ROE) from 16% in 2024 to 13.2% by 2027 [4][13] Business Segmentation - The property management service segment generated 11.675 billion RMB in revenue, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase, while non-owner value-added services saw a revenue decline of 6.4% [8][10] - The company secured new third-party project contracts worth 3.005 billion RMB in 2024, with a significant portion of its managed area coming from third-party projects [8][10] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.88 RMB and 3.09 RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 3.33 RMB [10][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [15]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of HKD 14.024 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 1.511 billion, up 12.5% year-on-year [4][6]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of HKD 0.095 per share, an increase from HKD 0.085 per share in 2023, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [4][6]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue growth is attributed to an increase in property management area and the expansion of value-added services [6]. - The gross profit margin improved from 15.9% to 16.6% due to cost-saving measures and better management of loss-making projects [6]. - The company’s core property management business is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected revenues of HKD 15.426 billion in 2025 and HKD 16.814 billion in 2026 [10]. Business Operations - The managed area increased to 431 million square meters, a 7.4% year-on-year growth, with third-party project contributions accounting for 39.4% of this area [8]. - The company signed new contracts worth HKD 4.441 billion during the reporting period, including notable projects in Beijing, Chengdu, and Hong Kong [8]. Value-Added Services - The company’s non-residential value-added services revenue decreased by 14.7% year-on-year to HKD 1.829 billion, while residential value-added services revenue grew by 7.2% to HKD 1.385 billion [9]. - The proportion of non-residential services in total revenue fell from 16.5% in 2023 to 13.0% in 2024, indicating a shift in service focus due to market conditions [9]. Financial Projections - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 0.51 for 2025 and HKD 0.57 for 2026, with a long-term outlook for EPS to reach HKD 0.63 by 2027 [10]. - The net asset return rate is expected to decline from 37% in 2023 to 21% by 2027, reflecting the anticipated market challenges [3].

政策加码提振市场，成交热度有所降温 ——20250406 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | (元) | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | 保利发展 | 7.93 | 1.0 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.27 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 买入 | | | 招商蛇口 | 9.11 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 14.0 | 24.6 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com ...