1 证券研究报告：大宗商品观察系列 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 全球制造业PMI跟踪：10月回暖 谢鸿鹤（ SAC证书编号：S0740517080003 ） 安永超（ SAC证书编号：S0740522090002 ） 2024年11月17日 42 40 -0.15 0 9-0 6 0 9-10 10-0 2 10-0 6 10-10 11-0 2 11-0 6 11-10 12-0 2 12-0 6 全球制造业景气（vs.库存周期）刻度：低位震荡 10月全球制造业PMI (J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI)指数录得49.4，环比回升0.7个百分点，仍处于收缩区间。若以2023年1月份为启动点，目前本轮周期累计 运行22个月，在全球主要经济体逆周期调节等政策，尤其是新兴市场的拉动下，下滑趋势有所放缓并出现低位震荡。 图表： 全球制造业PMI指数与库存周期滤波图 60 全球制造业摩根大通PMI 库存周期（即基钦周期，滤波数据，40个月，右轴） 库存周期象限分界 0.15 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the media industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the release of the "Guidelines for Market Value Management" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), which encourages listed companies to enhance their operational efficiency and investment value through mergers, acquisitions, and cash dividends [1] - It emphasizes the advantages of state-owned cultural enterprises in resource integration and their potential to improve competitiveness under supportive policies [1] - The report suggests that companies with sufficient cash reserves and strong resource endowments, such as Shanghai Film, Zhejiang Cultural, and others, are worth monitoring for investment opportunities [1] Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The number of listed companies in the industry is 130 - The total market value of the industry is 14,953.42 billion - The circulating market value of the industry is 13,379.67 billion [1] Market Trends Comparison - The report notes that the CSRC's guidelines require listed companies to focus on their main business, improve operational efficiency, and enhance profitability [1] - It encourages companies to develop and disclose medium to long-term dividend plans, increase dividend frequency, and optimize dividend rates [1] Related Reports - The report lists several related publications that provide insights into the industry, including summaries of quarterly reports and analyses of specific companies [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a reduction in export tax rebates for lithium batteries from 13% to 9%, effective December 1, 2024, which may impact the industry dynamics [20][21] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the offshore wind sector, with increased bidding activity and project advancements expected in the coming years [5][6] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - The battery industry index increased by 0.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.503 percentage points, indicating strong performance in the lithium battery sector [14] - Notable companies such as CATL are considering establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. if permitted by the government, reflecting a strategic shift towards becoming a green energy supplier [16] - The report mentions that the production capacity utilization is nearing full capacity, with expectations for profitability improvements in Q4 for certain companies [14] Electric Vehicle Sales - In October, the sales of new energy vehicles in nine European countries totaled 188,000 units, showing a slight decrease compared to previous months [22] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe reached 23.6%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [22] Offshore Wind Sector - The report identifies key players in the offshore wind supply chain, including cable manufacturers and turbine producers, as beneficiaries of the growing demand [5] - It notes that the domestic offshore wind projects are progressing well, with significant advancements expected in 2024 [5] Solar Energy Sector - The report expresses a bullish outlook on the solar sector, recommending companies involved in various stages of the solar supply chain, including polysilicon and module manufacturers [5] - It highlights the potential for operational improvements and market recovery in the solar industry due to recent policy changes and market dynamics [5]

Group 1: Market Value Management Guidelines - The official draft of the market value management guidelines has been released, maintaining consistency with the consultation draft, aimed at continuously improving the quality of listed companies [3] - The new "National Nine Articles" sets the tone by encouraging market value management, mergers and acquisitions, and dividend repurchases, with policies designed to enhance the quality of listed companies and improve investor returns [3] - The guidelines define market value management as a process based on improving company quality, utilizing methods such as mergers and acquisitions, equity incentives, cash dividends, and investor relations management [3] Group 2: Specific Requirements and Responsibilities - The guidelines clarify the responsibilities of relevant parties, including the board of directors, senior management, and controlling shareholders [3] - Special requirements are outlined for two types of companies: major index constituent companies must establish market value management systems, while long-term companies below net asset value must disclose valuation improvement plans [3] - Prohibited actions are specified to enhance compliance awareness, including market manipulation and insider trading [3] Group 3: Market Value Management Logic and Path - The theoretical logic of market value management is described as a positive feedback loop from value creation to value realization, emphasizing a long-term strategic management process [3] - The management process involves three dimensions: enhancing company value, effectively communicating this value to the capital market, and achieving market recognition [3] - This round of market value management is distinct from previous cycles, occurring under a backdrop of stringent financial supply-side reforms aimed at promoting long-term healthy market development [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the brokerage industry, which is expected to benefit from increased capital market activity and anticipated improvements in industry concentration due to mergers and acquisitions [3] - Specific stocks recommended for attention include Dongcai, Citic, Huatai, Guojun, Zhongjin, and Yinhe [3] Group 5: Economic Data Insights - October economic data shows overall improvement, with industrial output, retail sales, and fixed asset investment growing by 5.3%, 4.8%, and 3.4% year-on-year, respectively [9] - The service sector has accelerated growth, with the service production index increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, driven by significant contributions from finance, information technology, and leasing services [9] - Retail sales in October reached a year-high growth rate of 4.8%, with notable increases in home appliances and automotive sales, contributing significantly to the overall retail growth [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The domestic home furnishing sector shows significant recovery, with October retail sales of furniture increasing by 7.4% year-on-year, the highest monthly growth rate in 2023 [1] - The report highlights the positive impact of government subsidies and promotional events like Double 11 on consumer demand, particularly in the home furnishing and decoration sectors [1] - Analysts recommend focusing on leading companies in the soft furniture segment, such as Xilinmen and Kuka Home, as well as custom furniture brands like Sophia and Oppein [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From November 9 to November 15, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.7%. The light industry manufacturing index dropped by 3.68%, ranking 16th among 28 industries [1][19] - The textile and apparel index decreased by 3.38%, ranking 12th among the same industries [1][19] Key Company Data - The report lists 154 companies in the industry, with a total market capitalization of 878.31 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 758.19 billion yuan [1] Industry News - The report notes that October saw a significant improvement in retail sales, with furniture sales showing a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming Double 11 shopping festival, which is expected to further boost sales across various sectors, including home furnishings and apparel [2][25] Raw Material Price Tracking - MDI prices decreased by 0.27% week-on-week, while TDI prices fell by 1.92%. Soft foam polyether prices increased by 0.57% [25] - Cotton prices have shown a year-on-year decline, with the cotton price index for various grades dropping between 9.09% and 13.32% [30] Real Estate Market Data - In the week of November 10 to November 16, 2024, the transaction volume of new homes in major cities increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a 51.4% increase [38][39] - The report indicates a significant decline in new construction and sales area year-on-year, with a cumulative decrease of 23.4% in completed housing area from January to October 2024 [40][41]

光伏、电池出口退税率下调，海风招标密集发布 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

运营商/AI 算力双主线，星舰 6 试飞在即 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Insights - The National People's Congress Standing Committee approved an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits to replace hidden debts, with a focus on managing expectations rather than direct stimulus[1] - The new debt limit will raise the total local government special debt limit from 29.52 trillion yuan to 35.52 trillion yuan by the end of 2024[9] - The emphasis on "debt management" is expected to benefit state-owned enterprises, particularly in industries closely linked to local governments, such as construction and environmental protection[16] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Following the announcement, the market experienced a pullback, particularly in the real estate sector, which saw significant declines[1] - Historical analysis indicates that market reactions to policy announcements typically occur in two phases: an initial surge followed by a structural adjustment phase[21] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to generate new policy expectations, suggesting potential market opportunities despite short-term volatility[27] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The election of Trump and the associated tariff increases may pressure export-oriented sectors, while domestic demand policies are expected to become a focal point[3] - Industries with high accounts receivable ratios, such as construction and environmental sectors, are likely to benefit from the debt management policies[30] - The anticipated increase in the fiscal deficit ratio to 3.5% next year may lead to further policy directions, including capital injections into banks and reductions in transaction taxes for real estate[20]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - US CPI for October increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth rising to 2.6% from 2.4%[9] - Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and maintained a year-on-year growth of 3.3%[10] - Retail sales in October increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.3%[12] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Powell indicated that the Fed does not need to rush to lower interest rates, with a 62.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December[15] - The market adjusted expectations for rate cuts following Powell's comments, reducing the likelihood from 82.5% to 62.6%[15] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index fell to 12.5 from 20.1, indicating increased pessimism among respondents[17] - The ECB's decision to cut rates in October was driven by risk management concerns amid economic growth worries[19] Group 4: Market Performance - The US dollar index rose, leading to a depreciation of other currencies and a decline in equity markets[46] - 10-year US Treasury yields increased by 13 basis points, reflecting market adjustments to economic data and Fed policy[46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The official guidelines for market value management have been released, maintaining consistency with the draft version. The new "National Nine Articles" establishes a foundation that encourages market value management, mergers and acquisitions, and dividend repurchases, with policies expected to continue promoting improvements in the quality of listed companies and enhancing investor returns [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on the brokerage industry, which is expected to benefit from increased capital market activity and anticipated improvements in industry concentration due to mergers and integrations. Specific stock recommendations include Dongcai, Citic, Huatai, Guojun, Zhongjin, and Yinhe [1] Summary by Sections 1. Background of Market Value Management Policy - The new "National Nine Articles" encourages market value management, mergers and acquisitions, and dividend repurchases, aiming to enhance the investment value of listed companies. The policy emphasizes the importance of integrating market value management into the performance evaluation system of enterprises [12][11] 2. Analysis of Market Value Management Guidelines - The guidelines define market value management as a strategic management process aimed at improving company quality and enhancing investor returns through various methods such as mergers and acquisitions, stock incentives, cash dividends, and investor relations management [19][25] - Responsibilities of relevant parties, including the board of directors and major shareholders, are clearly outlined, emphasizing the need for compliance and the prohibition of market manipulation and insider trading [21][30] 3. Logic and Impact Outlook of the Current Market Value Management Cycle - The report highlights a shift in the market value management cycle, focusing on a long-term strategic management process that integrates value creation, transmission, and realization. It emphasizes the need for companies to enhance their operational quality and investor relations to achieve recognition in the capital market [45][49]