华福证券 行 业 研 究 23-08 23-09 23-10 23-11 23-12 24-01 24-02 24-03 24-04 24-05 24-06 24-07 证 报 告 业绩环比回暖，创新驱动成长 投资要点： 电子 2024 年 9 月 5 日 强于大市(维持评级) 一年内行业相对大盘走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|-------|-------|-------|-------|---------|------------| | | | | | | | | | 20% | | | | | 沪深300 | 电子(申万) | | 0% 10% | | | | | | | | -10% | | | | | | | | -20% | | | | | | | | -30% | | | | | | | 电子行业估值(PE) | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------|------------| | | | | | | | | | | PE(TTM) | 区间平均PE | | 60 | | | | ...

华福证券 电子 2024 年 09 月 05 日 电子 国产算力基本面向好趋势不变，把握市场波动下 的投资机遇-算力周跟踪 投资要点： 本周算力板块表现低迷，建议关注市场调整后的投资机遇。本周 （0902-0904）除龙芯中科外，海内外算力板块均下跌，英伟达-11.02%， 英特尔-11.84%，AMD-5.18%，寒武纪-19.40%。9 月 4 日，英伟达股价暴 跌 9.5%，市值蒸发 2790 亿美元，创美股史上单日最大跌幅，或受美国司 法部升级了对英伟达的反垄断调查催化，也可能受到美国宏观因素影响。9 月 5 日，寒武纪收盘大跌，阶段性股价调整或体现市场博弈，我们认为公 司基本面变化不大，且从资产负债表端来看，公司存货和预付款已经明显 起量，根据公司半年报，客户端进展向好，建议关注市场调整后的投资机 遇。 最新一周数据显示文生图大模型总体访问量上升趋势明显，AI 推理需 求持续释放。据 similarweb 最新数据（0823-0829）：（1）OpenAI 和 Perplexity 访问量上升趋势已持续一月。（2）文心一言本周访问量略有抬 升。8 月 23 日，文心一言升级阅读长文体验，允许文件分屏 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [7][17]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its battery business, with a revenue increase of 4.92% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, reaching 2.313 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 42.74% to 93 million yuan [2][3]. - The alkaline battery segment has demonstrated stable performance, contributing significantly to revenue, while the company is actively expanding its B2B market to attract high-quality international clients [3][4]. - The gross margin improved to 49.21% in the first half of 2024, driven by customer structure optimization and cost control measures [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.765 billion yuan, 5.251 billion yuan, and 5.737 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 10% and 9% in the following years [6][11][13]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 189 million yuan, 213 million yuan, and 239 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 63%, 13%, and 12% [6][11][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.90 yuan in 2024 to 1.13 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 25.6 to 20.2 [6][11][13][14].

华福证券 锦浪科技（300763.SZ） 24Q2 业绩显著改善，盈利能力实现修复 投资要点： 业绩点评 公司发布 24H1 业绩公告，实现营业收入 33.5 亿元，同比+3.2%； 归母净利 3.5 亿元，同比-44%；扣非归母净利 3.2 亿元，同比-51%； 其中 Q2 实现营业收入 19.6 亿元，同比+22.6%，环比+40.2%；归母净 利 3.3 亿元，同比+9.5%，环比+1536%；扣非归母净利 3.1 亿元，同比 -8.8%，环比+2146%。 24Q2 逆变器出货环比显著增长 公司 24H1 逆变器营收 22.4 亿元，综合毛利率 19.3%（环比 23H2 提升 4.4pct），其中并网逆变器毛利率 18.5%（环比提升 4.7pct），储 能逆变器毛利率 27.6%（环比下降 2pct）；整体 24H1 逆变器销量 50.12 万台（同比+29%，环比+40%），我们预计并网逆变器销量约 47-48 万 台，储能逆变器销量约 3 万台，其中 24Q2 逆变器销量约 30 万台（环 比增长约 43%），并网逆变器销量 27-28 万台（环比增长约 35%）， 储能逆变器销量 2-3 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SF Holding (002352 SZ) [3][5] Core Views - SF Holding achieved revenue of 134 41 billion yuan in 2024H1, up 8 1% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 4 81 billion yuan, up 15 1% YoY [2] - The company's express delivery volume grew 6 3% YoY to 6 24 billion pieces in 2024H1, with adjusted growth of 14 3% after excluding Fengwang [2] - SF Holding's profitability improved significantly, with gross profit up 10 8% YoY to 18 63 billion yuan and gross margin increasing by 0 4 percentage points to 13 9% [2] - The company's capital expenditure decreased by 26 0% YoY to 6 17 billion yuan in 2024H1, indicating a peak has passed [2] Business Segment Performance - Time-sensitive express business revenue grew 5 6% YoY to 59 19 billion yuan in 2024H1 [2] - Economy express business revenue increased 9 3% YoY to 13 25 billion yuan [2] - Freight business revenue rose 16 1% YoY to 17 55 billion yuan [2] - Cold chain and pharmaceutical business revenue declined 5 2% YoY to 5 06 billion yuan [2] - Intra-city delivery business revenue surged 18 5% YoY to 3 96 billion yuan [2] - International and supply chain business revenue grew 8 1% YoY to 31 20 billion yuan [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 291 46 billion yuan in 2024E to 368 52 billion yuan in 2026E [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 9 45 billion yuan in 2024E to 12 92 billion yuan in 2026E [4] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 1 96 yuan in 2024E to 2 68 yuan in 2026E [4] - ROE is expected to improve from 9 1% in 2024E to 10 5% in 2026E [8] Valuation Metrics - Current P/E ratio stands at 21 2x for 2023A, expected to decrease to 13 5x by 2026E [8] - P/B ratio is 1 9x for 2023A, projected to decline to 1 5x by 2026E [8] - The stock's current price is 36 68 yuan with a market capitalization of 176 65 billion yuan [5]

华福证券 e p yT tro p eR _ e lb aT |ts r iF _ e lb aT 交通运输 2024 年 9 月 5 日 Table_First|Table_Rating 买入(维持评级) 当前价格： 15.92 元 Table_First|Table_MarketInfo 基本数据 总股本/流通股本（百万股） 3445/3445 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 54849/54849 每股净资产（元） 8.60 资产负债率（%） 30.95 一年内最高/最低（元） 17.14/10.7 Table_First|Table_Chart 一年内股价相对走势 团队成员 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 执业证书编号：S0210524070004 | | 邮箱： | lc30018@hfzq.com.cn | | | | | | | | | | | 2023.11.01 | | | | | | 元，业绩稳健》2023. ...

华福证券 Table_F irst e p y T t r o p e R _ e l b a T | t s r i F _ e l b a T 交通运输 2024 年 9 月 5 日 韵达股份（002120.SZ） 买入(维持评级) 当前价格： 7.56 元 24Q2 归母净利同比+23.2%，成本费用持续改善 副标题事件：韵达股份公布2024半年报。24H1公司实现营业收入232.5亿元，同比增长 7.8%；归母净利润10.4亿元，同比增长19.8%；扣非归母净利润8.3亿元，同比 增长5.4%。分季度看，24Q1/Q2公司分别实现营业收入111.6亿元（同比增长 6.5%），121.0亿元（同比增长9.0%）；归母净利润4.1亿元，同比+15%，6.3亿 元，同比+23.2%；扣非归母净利润3.9亿元（同比增长11.5%），4.5亿元（同比 增长0.7%）。 件量增长明显，价格同比下降。量：2024H1公司快递业务量为109.2亿件，同比 增长30.0%，市占率为13.6%，通达系第三。24Q2公司快递业务量为59.8亿件， 同比增长30.8%。价：2024H1公司ASP为2.08元，同比-15.3% ...

华福证券 司 研 悦康药业（688658.SH） 创新面向未来，重磅品种羟 A 上市在即 投资要点： 聚焦大品种，传统品种集采影响逐步出清有望重回增长轨道 1.心脑血管为公司核心板块，主要产品为银杏叶提取物注射液：2022 年来，湖北与广东联盟集采中多种竞品银杏叶类中成药集采中标，悦康银 杏叶提取物注射剂全国集采流标，整体销量增速放缓，我们认为中短期来 看该品种依旧是贡献公司业绩的主要品种之一；老牌中药悦康活心丸（浓 缩丸）是国家医保甲类，国家基药品种。伴随活心丸研发循证推进，销量 有望持续提高；2.公司消化、糖尿病、抗感染领域诸多传统仿制药品种已 陆续被集采，如奥美拉唑肠溶胶囊被纳入第三批集采，注射用盐酸头孢吡 肟被纳入第七批国家集采，其余众多早期中标品种已完成续标，我们预计 集采品种在集采执行后的短期影响陆续出清。3.枸橼酸爱地那非片为公司 研发的 1.1 类新药，用于治疗男性 ED。我国两性用药市场空间巨大，经 头豹研究院测算，预计 2024-2028 年中国抗 ED 药物行业的规模将从 93.1 亿元增至 157.0 亿元。其中，2023 年西地那非销售额达 57.2 亿元，爱地那 非仍处于市场扩张阶 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [11]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 60.2% year-on-year, achieving 1.136 billion yuan in revenue for the first half of 2024, with a net profit of 327 million yuan, reflecting a 128.4% increase [2][3]. - The company is experiencing rapid growth in plasma collection, with an expected total of 1,400 tons for the year, supported by ongoing construction of new plasma collection stations [4]. - The blood products segment remains robust, with revenue of 1.133 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, also showing a 60.3% year-on-year increase, and the company is expanding its overseas sales efforts [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 790 million yuan, with a growth rate of 29%, followed by 919 million yuan in 2025 and 1.044 billion yuan in 2026, with respective growth rates of 16% and 14% [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.84 yuan in 2023 to 1.08 yuan in 2024, and further to 1.25 yuan in 2025 and 1.42 yuan in 2026 [8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 30 in 2023 to 23 in 2024, 20 in 2025, and 17 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [8].

司 研 华福证券 华熙生物（688363.SH） 中报业绩暂承压，医疗终端业务高增 投资要点： 中报业绩暂承压，管理仍在变革。公司 24H1 营收 28.11 亿元，同比下 滑 8.61%，归母净利润为 3.42 亿元，同比下滑 19.51%，扣非归母净利润为 3.16 亿元，同比下滑 12.38%。单 Q2 营收 14.50 亿元，同比下滑 18.09%， 归母净利润为 0.98 亿元，同比下滑 56.10%，扣非归母净利润为 0.84 亿元， 同 比 下 滑 59.7% 。 24H1 毛 利 率 为 74.52%/yoy+0.72pct ， 净 利 率 为 12.11%/yoy-1.6pct。上半年业绩承压主要系：1）管理变革在短期产生费用， 影响短期损益；2）对研发、创新业务等长期性、战略性的投入持续增长； 3）功能性护肤品业务等正处于管理变革深水区，成果短期受到影响。 原料和医疗终端业务稳健增长，医疗终端业务为主要增长驱动力。拆 分来看：1）原料业务：2024 H1 公司原料业务实现收入 6.30 亿元 /+yoy11.02%，收入占比 22.47%。原料业务（不含弗思特）整体毛利率为 70.71%， ...