446 风险提示：市场需求变化，行业竞争加剧，渠道拓展不及预期等。 数据来源：聚源、华金证券研究所 投资建议：公司坚持全品类全渠道建设，并以高端性价比战略牵引内外部变革，优 化供应链打造低价优质大单品，叠加抖音等短视频电商赋能全渠道、线下分销深化 助推增长，以及内部组织架构优化升级，业绩有望持续实现快速增长；中长期来看， 子品牌小鹿蓝蓝借势差异化定位，有望成为第二增长引擎。预计 2024-2026 年公 司营业收入分别为 101.65/123.76/146.08 亿元，同比增长 42.9%/21.8%/18.0%， 归母净利润 3.33/4.67/6.07 亿元，同比增长 51.5%/40.4%/29.8%，对应 EPS 分别 为 0.83/1.17/1.51 元，首次覆盖，给予"增持-B"评级。 公司快报/休闲食品Ⅲ 公司快报/休闲食品Ⅲ 预计 2024-2026 年公司收入预计同比增长 42.9%/21.8%/18.0%，毛利率为 24.1%/24.9%/2 （1） 线上渠道：公司以高端性价比为导向，积极构建全品类基本盘和"抖+N"全渠道协 同体系，通过发力抖音等短视频渠道加快培育大单品、提高产品品牌势能 ...

http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 费率管控良好，盈利能力同比提升。24Q1 公司毛利率为 33.64%，同比+2.62pct， 或主要得益于规模效应增强带来的成本优化。费用端，24Q1 公司销售费用率为 2 4.01%，同比-2.81pct，预计受益于费用投放效率提升，管理/研发/财务费用率为 7.65%/1.04%/-2.66%，同比-0.33pct/+0.06pct/-0.49pct，最终净利率为 3.49%，同 比+2.63pct，盈利能力显著改善。 风险提示：市场需求变化，行业竞争加剧，渠道拓展不及预期，产品销售不及预期 等。 公司快报/非乳饮料Ⅲ 资料来源：wind，华金证券研究所 一、盈利预测 （1） 冲泡类产品：国内冲泡市场竞争格局稳定，公司稳居龙头、连续 12 年杯装冲泡奶茶 市场份额第一，香飘飘品牌深入人心。冲泡现已成为公司重要基本盘业务，伴随着 产品健康化升级、泛冲泡品类扩充和渠道的持续下沉，该业务有望持续实现稳健增 长，预计 2024-2026 年冲泡类产品收入增速为 10.09%/8.07%/7.06%，毛利率为 4 6.0% ...

Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - The fiscal policy framework includes four accounts and three levels: macro-control, real estate market, and state-owned economy[2] - Broad fiscal revenue in 2023 reached 38.1 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.2% of GDP, with 70.3% coming from taxes and social security contributions[13] - Broad fiscal expenditure is expected to account for 36.2% of GDP in 2024, up 0.2 percentage points from 2023, driven by aging population and the need for stable growth[28] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 7.7% in narrow terms and 10% in broad terms in 2024, supported by special bonds and additional treasury bonds[36] - Over half of the 1 trillion yuan in special bonds and additional treasury bonds issued in 2023 will directly support key infrastructure projects, particularly in water conservancy[36] - Local debt risk mitigation has accelerated, increasing the urgency for central government to take on the responsibility of stabilizing new infrastructure investment[34] Manufacturing and Consumer Spending - Fiscal support for manufacturing investment is expected to increase by 800 billion yuan, potentially boosting annual manufacturing investment growth by 9.5%[47] - A 200 billion yuan subsidy for durable goods like cars, home appliances, and home furnishings is expected to stimulate an additional 300 billion yuan in consumer demand, contributing 0.8 percentage points to retail sales growth[52] - The real estate market adjustment has significantly dragged down consumer demand, particularly for durable goods, necessitating fiscal subsidies to stimulate consumption[48] Fiscal Revenue and Debt Risks - Low inflation and a high base effect may lead to a significant shortfall in general public budget revenue, potentially requiring an additional 1 trillion yuan in treasury bond issuance to cover the gap[94] - Government fund revenue, heavily reliant on land sales, is expected to decline further in 2024, with land sales revenue potentially falling short of the budget by 4000 billion yuan[115] - The fiscal deficit is expected to widen due to the dual pressures of declining revenue and increasing expenditure, necessitating careful balancing of debt financing efficiency and scale[29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" which is maintained from the previous assessment [1][3]. Core Views - The company has shown strong growth momentum in Q1 2024, with revenue reaching 3.482 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 664 million yuan, up 33.51% year-on-year [1]. - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth target of no less than 20% for 2024, focusing on multi-category and all-channel layout [1][3]. Revenue Analysis - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue from Dongpeng Special Drink was 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.11%, driven by the sales of new products [1]. - The electrolyte drinks and tea beverages contributed 377 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase, indicating a strong performance from the second growth curve [1]. - The company expanded its distribution channels, achieving revenue of 3.06 billion yuan from direct sales and 340 million yuan from franchise channels, reflecting year-on-year growth of 36.02% and 73.47% respectively [1]. Profit Analysis - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 42.77%, a slight decrease of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the increased proportion of lower-margin beverages [1]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2024 was 19.07%, down 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, but the company expects profitability to improve with the expansion of national channels and new product launches [1]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 14.333 billion yuan, 17.591 billion yuan, and 21.171 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.3%, 22.7%, and 20.4% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.621 billion yuan, 3.263 billion yuan, and 3.993 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 28.5%, 24.5%, and 22.4% respectively [3][4]. Strategic Outlook - The company plans to enhance its product matrix and introduce new flavors and specifications to capture market share, while also optimizing its regional structure for national development [1]. - The brand strategy focuses on promoting the Dongpeng Special Drink through various media and leveraging major sports events to enhance brand image [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][40]. Core Views - The company is expected to continue its multi-category and all-channel development strategy, with stable operations in its core products and promising growth in newly cultivated categories. This, combined with refined and diversified channel management, is anticipated to lead to sustained sales growth and improved operational efficiency [4][26]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.36%, and a net profit of 329 million yuan, up 107.8% year-on-year [40]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 586 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.75% [40]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 36.24%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material procurement costs [40]. Revenue Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 2.402 billion yuan, 2.940 billion yuan, and 3.491 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.0%, 22.4%, and 18.7% [4][5]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 406 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 597 million yuan, with growth rates of 23.2% for both 2024 and 2025, and 19.4% for 2026 [4][5]. Product Segmentation - The core product lines, including sunflower seeds, green peas, and broad beans, are expected to maintain leading market shares, with revenue growth rates projected at 15%, 18%, and 12% for 2024 to 2026, respectively [23]. - The comprehensive nut and bean series is anticipated to see significant growth, with revenue growth rates of 49.35%, 31.30%, and 26.25% from 2024 to 2026 [25]. Operational Strategy - The company plans to enhance product strength, channel capabilities, and operational efficiency through talent development, cost control, and logistics improvements [3]. - A shareholder dividend plan for 2023-2025 has been introduced, committing to distribute at least 30% of the annual distributable profits in cash, subject to certain conditions [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next six months compared to the CSI 300 index [2]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the cybersecurity software sector in China, focusing on safeguarding the industrial internet and becoming a security intelligent platform enterprise in the 5G cloud network era. The forecasted revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 19.50 billion, 23.46 billion, and 27.99 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 0.26 billion, 1.02 billion, and 1.84 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth rates [30][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024E at 19.50 billion yuan, 2025E at 23.46 billion yuan, and 2026E at 27.99 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.3%, 20.3%, and 19.3% respectively [7][30]. - The gross profit margins are expected to be 50.7%, 50.6%, and 50.6% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [7][30]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 0.26 billion yuan, with a significant increase to 1.02 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.84 billion yuan in 2026, indicating growth rates of 108.8%, 297.7%, and 80.6% respectively [30][19]. Product Segmentation - The revenue from cybersecurity products is expected to grow from 17.27 billion yuan in 2024 to 24.31 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.5% [19]. - The cybersecurity services segment is projected to see revenue growth from 1.24 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.31 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 39.0% [19]. - Revenue from cloud network virtualization software is expected to increase from 0.99 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.37 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15.9% [19]. Market Trends - The report highlights that the demand for cybersecurity products and services is expected to rebound due to the ongoing penetration of 5G-A communication technology and the emergence of new market applications such as AI large models [7][30]. - The integration of AI and machine learning technologies in cloud security is anticipated to drive the evolution of automated threat detection and response mechanisms, making cloud security a rapidly growing area in enterprise security and risk management spending [15][30].

2024年05月07日 公司研究●证券研究报告 古井贡酒（ ） 公司快报 000596.SZ 食品饮料 | 白酒Ⅲ 23 年顺利完成目标，24Q1 开局表现靓丽 投资评级 买入-B(首次) 股价(2024-05-06) 279.12元 事件： 公司发布2023年年报及2024年一季报，2023全年公司实现营业收入202.54亿元， 交易数据 同比+21.18%，实现归母净利润45.89亿元，同比+46.01%，实现扣非归母净利润44.95 总市值（百万元） 147,542.83 亿元，同比+46.59%。单季度来看，23Q4公司实现营业收入43.01亿元，同比+8.92%， 流通市值（百万元） 114,048.43 实现归母净利润7.77亿元，同比+49.20%，实现扣非归母净利润7.52亿元，同比 总股本（百万股） 528.60 +53.98%。 流通股本（百万股） 408.60 24Q1公司实现营收82.86亿元，同比+25.85%，实现归母净利润20.66亿元，同比 12个月价格区间 290.50/201.60 +31.61%，实现扣非归母净利润20.50亿元，同比+32.67%。 一年股价表现 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-B" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.94 yuan [3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 456 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 134 million yuan, up 9.63% year-on-year [3][15]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a significant revenue increase of 71.79% year-on-year, reaching 44 million yuan, although the net profit decreased by 27.27% to 4.05 million yuan [3]. - The company is actively expanding its capabilities in commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy sectors, aligning with national development priorities [3][15]. - The company has made substantial investments in R&D, totaling 48 million yuan in 2023, which is a 6.55% increase from the previous year [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 636 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 1.155 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.4%, 36.9%, and 32.7% respectively [5][15]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to be 187 million yuan, 253 million yuan, and 339 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 38.8%, 35.4%, and 34.1% [5][15]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 51.19%, a decrease of 8.47 percentage points compared to the previous year [3]. Business Development - The company has successfully secured a significant order for the C929 project, valued at up to 175 million yuan, which is expected to positively impact its operational performance [14][15]. - The company is enhancing its production capabilities in the drone industry, with a new drone industrial park project expected to partially commence production in the first half of 2024 [3][15].

2024年05月06日 公司研究●证券研究报告 华勤技术（ ） 深度分析 603296.SH 电子 | 消费电子设备Ⅲ ODM 龙头强者更强，高性能计算成长动能充沛 投资评级 买入-A(维持) 股价(2024-05-06) 73.66元 国产ODM龙头，布局稳健、强者更强：公司成立于2005年，经过18年的探索和 交易数据 发展，华勤技术从成立之初的以研发设计为主的IDH业务模式逐步发展到目前集研 总市值（百万元） 53,462.56 发设计与生产制造为一体的ODM业务模式，并由手机单一产品逐步发展为以智能 流通市值（百万元） 4,534.13 手机为主，笔记本电脑、平板电脑、智能穿戴、AIoT产品及服务器共生发展的多 总股本（百万股） 725.80 品类智能硬件平台。市场研究机构CounterpointResearch发布了2023年度全球 流通股本（百万股） 61.55 智能手机IDH/ODM厂商出货量市场份额报告，显示华勤技术以27.8%的市场份额 12个月价格区间 82.50/54.96 位居第一，紧随其后的则是龙旗、闻泰、天珑、Mobiwire。2015年至2019年，华 一年股价表现 勤技术逐渐 ...

2024年05月06日 公司研究●证券研究报告 明阳智能（ ） 公司快报 601615.SH 电力设备及新能源 | 风电Ⅲ 新能源装备综合经营，业务多点开花 投资评级 买入-B(首次) 股价(2024-04-30) 9.81元 投资要点 交易数据 事件： 总市值（百万元） 22,285.96 流通市值（百万元） 22,210.80 公司发布2023年年报及2024年一季报。2023年，公司实现营业收入278.59亿 总股本（百万股） 2,271.76 元，同比下滑9.39%，归母净利润3.72亿元，同比下滑89.19%，扣非后归母净 流通股本（百万股） 2,264.10 利润为2.06亿元，同比下滑93.36%。2024Q1，公司实现营业收入50.75亿元， 12个月价格区间 18.84/8.52 同比增长84.6%，归母净利润3.04亿元，扣非后归母净利润为2.91亿元。 一年股价表现 海陆并进，引领风电新技术。公司是国内风电整机龙头企业，产品种类丰富，包括 单机功率覆盖 1.5-11MW 系列陆上型风机和单机功率覆盖 5.5-22MW 系列海上 型风机。2023年，公司实现风机对外销售 9.69GW， ...