证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 智驾提速，继续看好板块机会 新能源汽车行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2025年02月09日 ◼ 分析师：黎江涛 ◼ SAC编号：S1050521120002 投 资 要 点 继续看好板块机会。根据中汽协数据，2024年12月新能源汽车产销分别完成153万辆和159.6万辆，同比分别增长30.5%和 34%。2024年新能源汽车产销分别完成1288.8万辆和1286.6万辆，同比分别增长34.4%和35.5%。供给端，电池及主机厂新 品不断推出，需求端反馈积极，政策也不断发力。价格层面，产业链历经价格大幅下行，资本开支不断收缩，供需格局不断优 化，行业协会、产业链公司均在积极优化产能与供给，力争价格保障企业盈利。整体而言，产业链价格处于底部，价格易涨难 跌，需求端韧性强劲，继续看好产业链优质公司。 行业评级及投资策略： 政策持续呵护，供给端部分企业开始收缩资本开支，供需结构在边际优化，2025年产业链价格触底修复。继续优选有望贡献 超额收益方向，看好固态电池、电池材料α品种、液冷、机器人等方向。维持新能源汽车行业"推荐"评级。 1）主材：浙江荣泰、尚太科 ...

2025 年 02 月 08 日 业绩承压不改长期动能，技术驱动孕育成长新机 —华曙高科（688433.SH）公司动态研究报告 | 分析师：吕卓阳 | S1050523060001 | | --- | --- | | lvzy@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：尤少炜 | S1050124040003 | | yousw@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2 0 2 5-0 2-0 7 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 26.39 | | 总市值（亿元） | 109 | | 总股本（百万股） | 414 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 200 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 14.34-30.85 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 51.09 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 (%) 华曙高科 沪深300 买入(首次) 投资要点 证 证券研究报告 ▌ 盈利预测 华曙高科是全球极少数同时具备 3D 打印设备、材料及软件自 主研发与生产能力的增材制造企业，销售规模位居全球前 列，有望持续提升市场份额和盈利能力。 ...

传媒战略性布局窗口下看什么？ 2025 年 02 月 09 日 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：朱珠 | S1050521110001 | | --- | --- | | zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：于越 | S1050522080001 | | yvyue@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 传媒板块在 2025 年具战略性布局价值，内需与创新双轮驱 动，从 2G 的政策支持到 EPS 端的业绩修复，再到 PE 端的 AI 助力，三因子共振下可关注传媒板块布局窗口。第一维度， 可关注春节前业绩预告利空已落地板块，如蓝色光标、奥飞 娱乐、风语筑、万达电影、横店影视等；第二维度，可关注 已接入 DeepSeek 的标的，如浙文互联完成 DeepSeek-R1 部 署，加速赋能智慧内容生态平台；第三维度，可关注 AI 应用 板块，AI+IP 玩具陪伴、文化科普、数字营销、直播电商、 内容制作、动画电影生成等，如奥飞娱乐、汤姆猫、风语 筑、蓝色光标、浙文互联、遥望科技、华策影视、芒果超 媒、中信出版、新经典、万达电影、上海电影、中文在线、B 站、美图、姚记科技、创梦天地等 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Chongqing Beer [1][4] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 fell short of expectations, with total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 14.645 billion, 1.245 billion, and 1.222 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of -1.15%, -6.84%, and -7.04% [2] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant pressure on profits, with revenue and profit figures of 1.582 billion and -0.87 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year revenue decline of -11.45% and a loss in profit [2] - The company is committed to a high-end strategy and plans to increase the development of non-drinking channels, with high-end products expected to grow in sales while some brands like Chongqing and others are projected to decline [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company experienced a decline in both volume and price, with sales volume down by -0.75% and -8.03% in 2024 and Q4 respectively, primarily due to challenges in the dining and entertainment channels and adverse weather conditions in some markets [2] - The average price per unit also decreased, with declines of -0.40% and -3.72% for the full year and Q4 respectively [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to enhance its high-end product offerings and reduce the proportion of mid-to-low-end products in non-drinking channels, while also promoting non-beer products [3] - In 2025, the company will continue to refine its non-drinking channel management by segmenting it into nine channels and teams, aiming to improve operational efficiency [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.57, 2.71, and 2.92 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21, 20, and 19 times [4] - The company is expected to benefit from lower barley costs in 2025, although it will face increased depreciation expenses from the Foshan factory and freight optimization [3]

2025 年 02 月 06 日 电源线龙头加码新能源链接产品，控股达为互联 发力高速线缆市场 —泓淋电力（301439.SZ）公司动态研究报告 买入(首次) 投资要点 | 分析师：宝幼琛 | S1050521110002 | | | --- | --- | --- | | baoyc@cfsc.com.cn | | | | 基本数据 | 2 0 2 5-0 2-0 5 | | | 当前股价（元） | | 15.92 | | 总市值（亿元） | | 62 | | 总股本（百万股） | | 389 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | 183 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | | 9.46-18.36 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | | 73.0 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20 0 20 40 60 80 (%) 泓淋电力 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 深耕电源线与特种线缆，产品结构丰富 公司专业从事电源线组件和特种线缆的研发、生产和销售， 是全球电源线组件行业龙头企业之一，专业为计算机、家用 电器客户提供电源线组件产品，并为家用电器、船舶及焊 枪、新能源电动汽车等客户提供精密电器配线、橡 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry [6][21]. Core Insights - The media industry is expected to benefit from advancements in AI technology, particularly with the introduction of new models like DeepSeek R1 and Janus Pro, which are anticipated to lower application costs and enhance performance [5][19]. - The 2025 Spring Festival box office performance has been strong, with significant increases in both ticket sales and audience attendance, indicating resilience in content consumption [15][28]. - The report highlights the importance of quality content in driving audience engagement, as seen with successful films like "Nezha: The Devil's Child" and "Detective Chinatown 1900" during the Spring Festival [15][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The media sector has shown varied performance, with the animation index experiencing smaller declines compared to other segments [14]. - The overall market sentiment reflects a mixed performance across different media sub-industries [14]. Market Performance - The Spring Festival box office reached a record high, with a single-day revenue of 1.616 billion yuan, marking a 33% year-on-year increase [15]. - The total box office for the Spring Festival period exceeded 7 billion yuan, with "Nezha: The Devil's Child" leading the charts [28]. AI Developments - The introduction of DeepSeek R1 and Janus Pro models is expected to revolutionize AI applications in the media sector, allowing companies to develop tailored AI solutions at lower costs [19][20]. - The open-source nature of these models is anticipated to lower barriers for startups and encourage innovation across various media applications [17][19]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks within the media sector, including Light Media, Wanda Film, and Mango Super Media, based on their strong performance and potential for growth [6][21]. - Specific films and their anticipated box office success are highlighted as key drivers for these companies [15][28]. Game Market Insights - The gaming sector is also experiencing growth, with significant revenue generated from mobile games, indicating a robust market recovery [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights 1. The value of Chinese innovative drugs for external authorization is being continuously validated, with significant partnerships emerging in various therapeutic areas, including autoimmune diseases [3] 2. The weight loss and NASH markets are seeing innovative developments, with Chinese companies actively pursuing overseas authorizations [4] 3. The domestic influenza positivity rate is declining, leading to increased testing and treatment rates [6] 4. The continuation of centralized procurement in 2025 is expected to drive growth in innovative drugs within the domestic market [8] 5. The introduction of a category of drugs for commercial insurance is anticipated to broaden the payment capabilities for innovative drugs [9] Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.70 percentage points over the past week, with a decline of 1.03% [21] - Over the past month, the industry also lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.85 percentage points, with a decline of 5.97% [25] Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation is currently below the historical five-year average, with a PE ratio of 29.59 times [38] Recent Research Achievements - The research team has published several in-depth reports highlighting positive trends in the supply and demand sides of the pharmaceutical industry, including the growth of blood products and the acceleration of the import substitution process in inhalation preparations [41] Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies include the implementation of a new payment management regulation aimed at improving the efficiency of medical insurance fund usage [44] - Notable industry news includes the acceptance of new drug applications by the National Medical Products Administration, indicating ongoing innovation and development within the sector [46][48]

Market Overview - The overseas market is primarily focused on the impact of tariffs and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, leading to a mixed sentiment in the A-share market[4] - The overall tariff impact is less severe than expected, allowing for potential negotiation space, which helps to stabilize market sentiment[4] - A-shares are expected to trend upwards in February due to improved liquidity and policy expectations from the Two Sessions[4] Top Stock Picks - Semiconductor leader SMIC (688981.SH) is projected to achieve revenues of 574.77 billion, 655.70 billion, and 742.45 billion from 2024 to 2026, with a "buy" rating[16] - Aojie Technology-U (688220.SH) anticipates a revenue of approximately 33.86 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of about 30.23%[18] - Hangzhou Steel (600126.SH) expects a net profit of 16.8 million in 2023, down 64.99% year-on-year due to weak demand in the steel industry[20] - Zhejiang Rongtai (603119.SH) forecasts a net profit of 0.975-1.045 billion in the first half of 2024, representing a growth of 40%-50%[39] - JunDa Co. (002865.SZ) is projected to achieve revenues of 196.26 billion, 245.26 billion, and 294.26 billion from 2024 to 2026, with a "buy" rating[47] - Shanjin International (000975.SZ) reported a revenue of 65.05 billion in the first half of 2024, up 42.27% year-on-year[49] Risk Factors - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and potential shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy pose risks to market stability[5] - The steel industry faces significant pressure from high raw material prices and weak demand, impacting profitability for companies like Hangzhou Steel[20] - Risks related to macroeconomic fluctuations and competition in the semiconductor and technology sectors could affect companies like SMIC and Aojie Technology-U[17][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [7] Core Views - The performance of the liquor sector during the Spring Festival aligns with pre-holiday expectations, with high-end liquor benefiting from gifting scenarios, while local brands show resilience due to demand from family gatherings and banquets [4][5] - The report highlights a positive trend in the snack retail sector, with major brands maintaining fresh production dates and stable sales performance [5][6] - The liquor sector is expected to follow a path of "valuation recovery followed by fundamental improvement," with three main investment lines identified: high-end liquor, local brands benefiting from scene recovery, and mid-range liquor with strong performance certainty [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown a relative performance decline of -3.7% over the past month, -7.7% over three months, and -3.9% over the past year, compared to a 1.1% increase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index over the past month [1] Company News - Guizhou Moutai's logistics park project is expected to be completed within the year [15] - Shanxi Fenjiu has achieved double-digit growth in both dealer numbers and revenue scale, with 38 markets exceeding 100 million yuan in 2024 [15][16] - The total revenue of Gujing Gongjiu is projected to reach 248.2 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 15% increase [16] Key Company Feedback - Water Weaving's performance is in line with expectations, with projected total revenue of 52.17 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 5.32% year-on-year increase [64] - The report notes that the overall sales performance during the Spring Festival is in line with expectations, with good inventory levels maintained [64] Market Trends - The liquor industry generated revenue of 756.3 billion yuan in 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.7% [36] - The snack market is expected to continue its recovery, with various brands expanding their presence in discount supermarkets to enhance consumer engagement and increase average transaction values [6]

Market Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook for 2025, suggesting that the market is in the early stages of a bull market, with a recommendation to increase positions if adjustments occur[4]. - A-share market timing model has turned bullish for the first time since October 2024, indicating a full position signal[27]. U.S. Market Insights - U.S. stocks are advised to be approached with caution, as hedge funds are reducing positions, although a short-term rebound in AI infrastructure may last for one to two weeks[2]. - The healthcare sector in the U.S. has seen significant inflows, becoming the top sector for three consecutive weeks[32]. Japanese Market Strategy - The report strongly recommends Japanese stocks, viewing the recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan as manageable, with hedge fund positions beginning to rise[33]. Hong Kong Market Recommendations - A strong bullish stance is maintained for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in banking, AI software, and internet platforms[36]. Gold Price Forecast - The report maintains a bullish view on gold, predicting prices to oscillate between $2,700 and $2,850 in 2025, supported by central bank purchases and speculative buying[3]. ETF Performance - The equity-focused ETF strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 23.2% since early 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 by 10.01%[47]. Small Cap Stocks - The report suggests a shift towards small-cap stocks, with recommendations to hold high-elasticity targets such as IM and small-cap technology stocks[2]. Sector Rotation - The report highlights a recovery in the effectiveness of sector rotation strategies, with a focus on industries such as computing, batteries, and automotive parts[2]. Risk Considerations - The report warns of potential model failures due to significant market changes and emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results[8].