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扣非业绩符合预期,长投价值显著
Tebon Securities· 2024-04-26 12:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 170.87 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 39.67% to 21.24 billion yuan [5] - The coal business showed a growth in production and sales volume, with self-produced coal output increasing by 4.1% to 163.72 million tons in 2023 [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 13.15 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 60.03% and a dividend yield of 5.21% based on the closing price on April 25 [6] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 21.56 billion, 22.42 billion, and 23.40 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.3, 10.8, and 10.3 [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a gross profit of 62.5 billion yuan from its coal business, with a gross margin of 38%, a decrease of 7.06 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company’s total assets were reported at 201.97 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 34.01% as of the end of Q1 2024 [6][8] - The company’s operating income for Q1 2024 was 40.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.73% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.65 billion yuan, down 32.69% [5] Production and Sales Data - In 2023, the company’s self-produced coal sales volume reached 16.37 million tons, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year, while trade coal sales rose by 29% to 8.95 million tons [5] - For Q1 2024, the company reported a coal production of 4.15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.49%, and sales volume of 6.15 million tons, up 9.16% [5]
年报及一季报点评:2023年镁行业供需双弱,未来公司各领域镁产品销量有望提升
Tebon Securities· 2024-04-26 11:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baowu Magnesium Industry (002182.SZ) [3][7]. Core Views - The magnesium industry faced weak supply and demand in 2023, but the company's sales volume of magnesium products is expected to improve in the future [3][5]. - In 2023, the company's revenue was 7.651 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.96%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 306 million yuan, down 49.82% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2024, revenue increased by 10.03% year-on-year to 1.863 billion yuan, and net profit rose by 19.94% to 60.72 million yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Baowu Magnesium's stock performance has been significantly lower than the market, with a 34% decline compared to the CSI 300 index [3]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 7.651 billion yuan and a net profit of 306 million yuan. The forecast for 2024 shows expected revenues of 9.126 billion yuan and a net profit of 417 million yuan [4][10]. Industry Overview - The global magnesium market experienced a significant downturn in 2023, with production down by 9.9% to 1 million tons and consumption down by 8.7% to approximately 1.05 million tons. The average price of magnesium ingots in China fell by 27.23% to 23,699.21 yuan per ton [5][6]. Demand Expansion - The company is actively expanding its demand in various sectors, including automotive die-casting, construction templates, low-altitude economy, and magnesium-based hydrogen storage materials [6][7]. Profit Forecast - The revenue projections for Baowu Magnesium for 2024 to 2026 are 9.126 billion yuan, 12.414 billion yuan, and 16.394 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 417 million yuan, 707 million yuan, and 959 million yuan [7][10].
食品饮料行业专题:2024Q1基金重仓分析:持仓环比增配明显,赛道龙头更受青睐
Tebon Securities· 2024-04-26 09:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Views - The food and beverage sector has seen significant institutional allocation, with a total market value of heavy holdings reaching CNY 384.998 billion in Q1 2024, reflecting a 2.67% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][16] - The report highlights a clear preference for leading companies in the sector, particularly in the liquor segment, where major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are favored [2][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 0.23% in Q1 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.17 percentage points, ranking 14th among 31 first-level sub-industries [10][13] Institutional Holdings - The food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio remains the highest among all industries at 14.14%, with a significant increase in the allocation to liquor stocks [16][17] - The top four heavy holdings in Q1 2024 include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with Kweichow Moutai's holding ratio rising to 5.43% [19][29] Sub-Sector Analysis - The liquor segment has seen a notable increase in heavy holdings, with the ratio rising to 12.54% and the overweight ratio to 8.13% in Q1 2024 [21][22] - The beer segment has reversed a three-quarter decline, with heavy holdings increasing to 0.43% [22] - The snack segment shows a positive trend, with leading companies like Jianzi Foods and Yanjinpuzi seeing increased institutional interest [22][24] Individual Stock Holdings - Despite a general trend of reduced holdings, the overall market value of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector has increased, driven by larger companies [27] - The top ten heavy holdings in Q1 2024 are dominated by liquor stocks, with Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao leading the list [28][29]
洞藏延续高增,业绩超预期
Tebon Securities· 2024-04-26 07:30
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 迎驾贡酒(603198.SH) 2024年04月26日 增持(维持) 迎驾贡酒(603198.SH):洞藏延续高 所属行业:食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 增,业绩超预期 当前价格(元):65.75 证券分析师 投资要点 熊鹏 资格编号:S0120522120002 事件:公司发布 2023 年年报,2023 年公司实现营业收入 67.2 亿元,同比增长 邮箱:xiongpeng@tebon.com.cn 22.1%;实现归母净利润22.9亿元,同比增长34.2%;实现扣非归母净利润22.3 研究助理 亿元,同比增长36.0%。根据计算,2023Q4实现营业收入19.2亿元,同比增长 18.8%;实现归母净利润6.3亿元,同比增长26.0%;实现扣非归母净利润6.2亿 尤诗超 元,同比增长32.4%。2024Q1公司实现营业收入23.3亿元,同比增长21.3%; 邮箱:yousc3@tebon.com.cn 实现归母净利润9.1亿元,同比增长30.4%;实现扣非归母净利润9.0亿元,同比 增长32.7%。 市场表现 迎驾贡酒 沪深300 23 年圆满收官,产品结 ...
盈利进入底部,向上拐点或仍需等待
Tebon Securities· 2024-04-26 07:30
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [3][15]. Core Insights - The carbon fiber industry is currently facing a phase of weak demand and increased supply, leading to a challenging pricing environment. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the marginal optimization of supply and demand dynamics [3][6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately 2.35 billion, 2.60 billion, and 2.87 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31.54, 28.48, and 25.83 times [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenues of approximately 401 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 20 million yuan, down 88.44% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was approximately 19 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 88.75% year-on-year [1][3]. - For the full year 2023, the company achieved revenues of approximately 2.049 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.65% year-on-year, and a net profit of about 231 million yuan, down 63.25% year-on-year. The gross profit margin was approximately 24.71%, a decline of 14.08% year-on-year [17][24]. - The company’s core business, carbon fiber raw silk, generated revenues of approximately 1.559 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.82% year-on-year, with a gross margin of about 26.20%, down 13.82 percentage points year-on-year [6][17]. Market Dynamics - The carbon fiber market has experienced a significant supply-demand imbalance in 2023, with domestic production capacity reaching 120,200 tons, an increase of 34.75% year-on-year. However, global demand for carbon fiber fell by 14.8% to approximately 115,000 tons [6][17]. - The average market price for carbon fiber in China was approximately 118.49 yuan/kg in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.52% [6][17]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its competitive edge in the market [14][24].
2024Q1业绩表现亮眼,电动智能&全球化进程加速


Tebon Securities· 2024-04-26 06:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 长城汽车(601633.SH) 2024年04月26日 长城汽车(601633.SH):2024Q1 买入(维持) 所属行业:汽车/乘用车 业绩表现亮眼,电动智能&全球化 当前价格(元):26.59 进程加速 证券分析师 邓健全 资格编号:S0120523100001 投资要点 邮箱:dengjq@tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 事件:公司发布 2024 年一季度报告。2024Q1 公司实现营收 428.6 亿元,同比 资格编号:S0120523100002 +47.6%,环比-20.2%;归母净利润32.3亿元,同比+1752.5%,环比+59.3% ; 邮箱:zhaoyy5@tebon.com.cn 扣非归母净利润20.2亿元,同比扭亏,环比+97.3%。从盈利能力来看,2024Q1 赵启政 公司毛利率为20.0%,同比+4.0pcts,环比+1.6pcts。费用率方面,2024Q1四费 资格编号:S0120523120002 率为11.1%,同环比分别-2.9/-1.9pcts,其中销售、管理、研发费用率同环比均下 邮箱:zhaoqz@tebo ...
电子:德州仪器Q1业绩超预期,持续关注模拟芯片板块
Tebon Securities· 2024-04-26 01:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Texas Instruments, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1][4]. Core Insights - Texas Instruments reported Q1 2024 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue of $3.66 billion, a decrease of 10.3% quarter-over-quarter and 16.4% year-over-year, marking the lowest level since 2020. Net profit was $1.11 billion, down 35% year-over-year, but above market expectations of $983 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.10, slightly above the expected $1.08. The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 57.22% due to declining utilization rates and rising costs from capacity expansion. The company anticipates Q2 revenue to be between $3.65 billion and $3.95 billion, indicating a potential for continued growth [3]. - Demand for consumer electronics is recovering, while the decline in industrial demand is expected to ease. The consumer electronics sector has shown a clear recovery trend since Q4 2023, with AI and other incremental demands likely to boost the need for smartphones and PCs. In Q1 2024, revenue from analog products was $2.835 billion, down 14% year-over-year; embedded products revenue was $652 million, down 22%; and other products revenue was $173 million, down 33%. Some industrial clients have begun to deplete their inventories, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial demand [3]. - China is the largest market for analog chips globally, with a low domestic production rate. In 2022, China's semiconductor market reached $180.3 billion, accounting for 32.5% of the global market. The analog chip market in China was valued at $42.2 billion, representing 47.4% of the global analog chip market. However, the domestic production rate for analog ICs in China is only about 12%. With improvements in domestic manufacturers and favorable national policies, the market for analog chips in China is expected to grow, providing significant opportunities for local manufacturers [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was $3.66 billion, down 10.3% quarter-over-quarter and 16.4% year-over-year [3] - Net profit was $1.11 billion, down 35% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [3] - Non-GAAP EPS was $1.10, slightly above the expected $1.08 [3] - Gross margin for Q1 2024 was 57.22% [3] - Q2 revenue forecast is between $3.65 billion and $3.95 billion [3] Market Demand - Recovery in consumer electronics demand since Q4 2023 [3] - Industrial demand decline expected to ease as clients deplete inventories [3] - Revenue breakdown for Q1 2024: analog products at $2.835 billion, embedded products at $652 million, and other products at $173 million [3] Market Position - China holds the largest share of the global analog chip market [3] - 2022 China's semiconductor market was valued at $180.3 billion [3] - Analog chip market in China was $42.2 billion, with a domestic production rate of only 12% [3] - Growth potential for local manufacturers due to favorable policies and market trends [3]
24Q1价格探底影响业绩,底部建立有望带来龙头弹性
Tebon Securities· 2024-04-26 01:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 中国巨石(600176.SH) 2024年04月25日 买入(维持) 中国巨石(600176.SH):24Q1 价格探底 所属行业:建筑材料/玻璃玻纤 影响业绩,底部建立有望带来龙头弹性 当前价格(元):11.98 证券分析师 投资要点 闫广 资格编号:S0120521060002 事件:2024年4月25日,公司发布2024年第一季度报告,24Q1公司实现营收 邮箱:yanguang@tebon.com.cn 约33.82亿元,同比-7.86%,实现归母净利润约3.50亿元,同比-61.97%,实现 王逸枫 扣非归母净利润约1.68亿元,同比-65.95%。 资格编号:S0120524010004 邮箱:wangyf6@tebon.com.cn 24Q1 价格持续探底拖累收入。24Q1 公司收入同比小幅下降 7.86%至 33.82 亿 研究助理 元,我们判断主要为 24Q1 粗纱及电子纱价格持续下降影响,公司在市场竞争加 剧背景下有望凭借产能、产品、成本等优势进一步扩大市占率,保持销量的稳健增 长。根据卓创资讯,23年全国粗纱价格呈现逐季度下降 ...
2023年年度报告及2024年Q1点评:业绩表现或迎来拐点,海外拓展助力走出低谷
Tebon Securities· 2024-04-26 01:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 瑞可达 (688800.SH), indicating a potential performance improvement and overseas expansion aiding recovery from a downturn [12][15]. Core Insights - The company has shown signs of a performance turnaround in Q1 2024, with a year-on-year increase in net profit and revenue, breaking a four-quarter streak of negative growth [2][14]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas operations and increasing R&D investment, which is expected to enhance its market competitiveness and drive future growth [23]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 1.555 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.32% year-on-year, and a net profit of 137 million yuan, down 45.86% year-on-year [14]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 462 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.66%, and a net profit of 42 million yuan, up 1.66% year-on-year [14]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 24.88%, a decrease of 2.54 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.43%, down 3.02 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The company's revenue from the new energy connector business was approximately 1.367 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 87.89% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of about 1.98% due to reduced order volume [2]. - The communication connector business saw a significant decline, with revenue of approximately 106 million yuan, representing 6.83% of total revenue, and a year-on-year decrease of about 31.57% due to project delays [2]. Future Projections - The report forecasts revenues of 2.278 billion yuan, 2.829 billion yuan, and 3.518 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 201 million yuan, 298 million yuan, and 404 million yuan [15][25].
24Q1玻纤及锂膜价格同比下降,看好玻纤涨价释放弹性
Tebon Securities· 2024-04-26 01:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 中材科技(002080.SZ) 2024年04月25日 买入(维持) 中材科技(002080.SZ):24Q1 玻纤及锂 所属行业:建筑材料/玻璃玻纤 膜价格同比下降,看好玻纤涨价释放弹性 当前价格(元):16.44 证券分析师 投资要点 闫广 资格编号:S0120521060002 事件:2024 年 4 月 25 日,公司发布 2024 年第一季度报告,24Q1 公司实现营收约 邮箱:yanguang@tebon.com.cn 44.30亿元,同比-12.16%,归母净利润约2.16亿元,同比-47.66%,扣非归母净 王逸枫 利润约1.08亿元,同比-70.76%。 资格编号:S0120524010004 邮箱:wangyf6@tebon.com.cn 24Q1 玻纤及锂膜价格承压影响业绩表现。24Q1 淡季公司实现收入同比-12.16%至 研究助理 44.30亿元,毛利率约19.43%,同比-5.74pct,主要系玻纤及锂电池隔膜产品价格 同比下降所致。23 年全国粗纱价格呈现逐季度下降且降幅延续至 24Q1,根据卓 创资讯,24Q1全国无碱240 ...