证券行业：国信、万和并购重组启 动，业内整合或再提速 2024 年 8 月 23 日 看好/维持 非银行金融 行业报告 事件：8 月 21 日，国信证券发布公告，拟通过发行股份的方式购买深圳市资 本运营集团有限公司持有的万和证券 53.0892%的股份。同时，公司拟自 8 月 22 日开市时起停牌，最晚于 9 月 5 日开市时复牌。 点评： 本次国信证券相关收购事宜，是年内继"西部+国融"、"浙商+国都"、"国联+ 民生"后又一公告并购重组进展的案例，券商短期内密集更新并购进展，或标 志着行业内整合进程进一步提速。6 月 21 日，西部证券公告正在筹划以支付 现金形式收购国融证券控股权；7 月 16 日，浙商证券公告称，证监会已受理 公司提出的关于国都证券变更主要股东及实控人的申请；8 月 8 日，国联证券 公告发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金的草案，拟通过发行 A 股股份的方式向 国联集团等 45 名交易对手方购买其合计持有的民生证券 99.26%股份，交易价 格为 294.92 亿元。在不超过三个月的时间内，四起并购案例更新进展，对于 并购重组并不常见的证券行业来说已属高频，或标志着行业内并购整合将显著 提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company achieved steady revenue growth, with a total revenue of 5.712 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 563 million yuan, up 3.38% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses increased by 20% to 366 million yuan [2][3]. - The company is in a phase of continuous investment in computing power, with significant support for domestic computing power initiatives. The government has introduced various policies to promote the development of domestic computing power, and the company’s storage and computing products have gained recognition across multiple industries [3][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing construction of computing power infrastructure and has a positive long-term development outlook, with projected net profits of 2.302 billion, 2.834 billion, and 3.398 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.712 billion yuan, a 5.77% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 563 million yuan, a 3.38% increase year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 366 million yuan, reflecting a 20% increase [2][3]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 26.25%, slightly up from 26.04% in the same period last year, indicating stable profitability [2][3]. Computing Power Development - The company is actively involved in the construction of computing power infrastructure, with strong government support for domestic computing initiatives. Various local governments have introduced policies to promote the use of domestic chips in computing centers [3][4]. - The company has participated in the construction and operation of computing power service platforms in cities like Beijing, Chongqing, and Qingdao, contributing to the national integrated computing power network [3][4]. Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.302 billion, 2.834 billion, and 3.398 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 1.57, 1.94, and 2.32 yuan [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strongly Recommend" rating for the company, citing its stable gypsum board business, rapid growth in its "two wings" businesses (waterproofing materials and coatings), and overseas expansion as key drivers for future growth [3][7] Core Views - The company's "one body, two wings" strategy is effectively implemented, with the gypsum board business remaining stable and the waterproofing materials and coatings businesses growing rapidly [2] - The company's profitability remains stable, with an improvement in asset turnover and ROE, driven by optimized product structure and cost control [2] - Overseas expansion in markets such as Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia provides new growth opportunities for the company [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 13.597 billion, a YoY increase of 19.25%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.214 billion, a YoY increase of 16.79% [3] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 30.94%, up 0.74 percentage points YoY, driven by higher margins in gypsum board, keel, and coatings businesses [2] - The company's total asset turnover ratio increased to 0.41, up 0.02 percentage points YoY, and ROE improved to 8.81%, up 0.3 percentage points YoY [2] Business Segments - Gypsum board and keel businesses grew steadily, with YoY growth rates of 4.05% and 4.06%, respectively [2] - Waterproofing materials business grew 32.37% YoY, outperforming the industry despite a downturn in the sector [2] - Coatings business grew 265.79% YoY, driven by the acquisition of Jia Baoli, which contributed to rapid expansion [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 4.4 billion, RMB 4.896 billion, and RMB 5.511 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of RMB 2.60, RMB 2.90, and RMB 3.26 [3] - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.04% to 13.26% from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 34.664 billion by 2026 [4][8] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 9.33x, 8.39x, and 7.45x, respectively, indicating attractive valuations [3][8] Overseas Expansion - The company is actively expanding its presence in overseas markets, including Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, which is expected to contribute to future growth [2] Industry Context - The company benefits from its leading position in the domestic gypsum board market, with a market share exceeding 60%, and its ability to leverage synergies from acquisitions in the waterproofing and coatings sectors [5]

Group 1: Electronic Industry - The company achieved a revenue growth of 40.12% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with a net profit growth of 122.76%, driven by recovering demand in downstream markets and product structure upgrades [2][3] - The company's operating cash flow increased by 68.81% year-on-year, reaching 292 million yuan, while financial expenses rose by 139.33% to 12.22 million yuan due to increased loan interest and foreign exchange losses [2] - The semiconductor discrete device market demand is expected to reach 355.46 billion yuan in 2024, with the company adopting an IDM model and partially a Fabless+testing model to enhance its production capabilities [2][3] Group 2: Metal Industry - The global alumina market has seen significant expansion, with global alumina production capacity increasing by 87.8% from 2014 to 2023, and China's share exceeding 54.9% of global capacity [3][4] - The top ten global alumina producers hold a market share of 64.5%, with five Chinese companies among them, indicating a strong oligopolistic market structure [4] - China's alumina production capacity is concentrated in four provinces, which account for 79% of the total national capacity, highlighting regional concentration in supply [5] Group 3: Aviation Industry - In July, domestic airlines increased capacity by approximately 19% compared to June, with capacity reaching about 130% of the levels seen in July 2019 [6][7] - International flight capacity also saw a significant increase, reaching about 89% of July 2019 levels, although passenger load factors remained stable [7] - The aviation industry is expected to improve profitability compared to last year, despite ongoing operational pressures [7] Group 4: Communication Industry - The company reported a 13.2% decline in revenue for the first half of 2024, primarily due to reduced demand from operators for 5G network construction [8] - Despite the revenue decline, the company is investing in satellite internet research and development, with a total expected investment of 300 million yuan [8] Group 5: Construction and Building Materials Industry - The real estate market continues to experience price declines, with new housing prices down for 27 consecutive months [9] - Various policies have been introduced to mitigate the downturn in the real estate sector, including reduced down payments and lower loan rates [9] - The industry is anticipated to undergo valuation recovery as policies take effect and the market stabilizes [9] Group 6: Non-Banking Financial Sector - Recent policies are expected to gradually show positive effects, enhancing investor risk appetite in both domestic and Hong Kong capital markets [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of capital market reforms and macroeconomic recovery trends in driving industry value [10] Group 7: Computer Industry - The company reported a revenue of 2.413 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, reflecting an 11.09% year-on-year growth, with net profit increasing by 20.38% [16][17] - The company is focusing on expanding its AI capabilities and enhancing its product ecosystem, which is expected to improve customer retention and willingness to pay [18][19] - The company anticipates continued growth in net profit over the next three years, with projected earnings per share of 3.38, 4.65, and 6.02 yuan for 2024-2026 [19]

顾家家居（603816.SH）：外销稳步 增长，毛利率保持提升 2024 年 8 月 23 日 推荐/维持 顾家家居 公司报告 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 事件：公司发布 2024 半年报。2024 上半年营收 89.1 亿元，同比+0.3%；归 母净利润 9.0 亿元，同比-3.0%。其中 Q2 营收 45.6 亿元，同比-7.4%；归母 净利润为 4.8 亿元，同比-9.1%。 分市场看，内销静待回暖，外销稳健增长。2024H1 内销收入 47.2 亿元，同比 -9.8%，行业需求恢复较缓。面对行业变化，公司积极提高产品性价比，推出 "惠民工程"系列产品，在定制家具商推出 698 套餐进攻市场。整家模式继续 推进中，融合大店快速拓展，整家套餐销售占比超 35%。内销毛利率 37.8%， 同比提升 1.3pct，性价比趋势下逆势提升，运营提效措施效果明显。针对存量 市场，公司探索"局装/微改换新丢旧"模式，有望在未来成为业绩增长点。 2024H1 外销收入 38.9 亿元，同比+12.6%，有所回暖。推测海运费涨价导致 订单延后，对 Q2 收入造成扰动。商超客户的拓展有望 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [4][9][15] Core Views - ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 15.62 billion pieces in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8%. The second quarter saw a business volume of 8.45 billion pieces, up 10.1% year-on-year [2][3] - The company's market share decreased from 21.6% to 19.6% year-on-year in Q2, as ZTO prioritized revenue quality over volume, leading to slower growth compared to the industry average [2][3] - Despite a decline in market share, ZTO's revenue quality improved, with Q2 single-ticket revenue slightly increasing to 1.24 CNY from 1.23 CNY year-on-year, indicating a focus on quality service [2][3] - The report anticipates a business volume growth rate of at least 18% in the second half of the year to meet the annual guidance of 15-18% growth [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, ZTO reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit was 5.03 billion CNY, up 13.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a 673 million CNY impairment charge on equity investments [2][3] - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 9.38 billion CNY, 11.72 billion CNY, and 13.37 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.9X, 10.3X, and 9.0X [3][7] - The company maintains a balanced strategy of enhancing service quality, business scale, and profitability, which has led to a strong brand recognition and customer satisfaction [3][7] Cost and Profitability Analysis - In Q2, ZTO's single-ticket cost was 0.82 CNY, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, with transportation costs decreasing by 6.8% to 0.39 CNY, while sorting costs rose by 4.6% to 0.26 CNY [2][3] - The report indicates that while single-ticket costs have stabilized, there is potential for further cost reduction as new equipment utilization increases with growing business volume [3][8]

公 司 研 究 中宠股份（002891.SZ）：主粮表现 亮眼，员工持股计划彰显发展信心 2024 年 8 月 22 日 强烈推荐/维持 中宠股份 公司报告 事件：公司公布 2024 年半年报，公司 2024 年上半年实现营业收入 19.56 亿 元，yoy14.08%，实现归母净利润 1.42 亿元，yoy48.11%。公司同时公告 2024 年员工计划（草案）。 境内外收入稳健增长，毛利率提升带动业绩高增。分区域来看，公司境外主营 业务收入 13.39 亿元，同比增长 10.22%；境内主营业务收入 6.17 亿元，同比 增长 23.45%，境外境内业务共同带动公司营业收入稳健增长。24H1 公司整体 毛利率 28.98%，相比去年同期提升 3.33 个百分点，带动了业绩高速增长。分 区域来看，境外、境内业务毛利率分别为 25.10%和 37.03%，相比去年同期分 别提升 2.80%和 3.61%。 主粮业务表现亮眼，自主品牌梳理调整有序推进。公司宠物主粮销售高速增长， 24H1 实现营收 4.22 亿元，同比增长 83.96%；主粮产品毛利率提升幅度最大， 24H1 毛利率 35.84%，相比去年同期 ...

安井食品（603345.SH）：小龙虾及 水产短期承压，主业依旧稳健 2024 年 8 月 22 日 强烈推荐/维持 安井食品 公司报告 事件： 公司 2024H1 实现营业收入 75.44 亿元，同比+9.42%；实现归母净利 8.03 亿 元，同比+9.17%，扣非归母净利润 7.72 亿元，同比+11.11%。其中，24Q2 营收 37.89 亿元，同比+2.31%；归母净利润 3.64 亿元，同比-2.51%；扣非归 母净利润 3.52 亿元，同比+0.79%。公司披露半年度利润分配方案，拟每股派 发现金红利 1.38 元（含税），24H1 现金分红和回购金额合计 4.6 亿元（含税）， 约占公司 2024 年半年度归母净利润 57.50%，现金分红重视股东回报，彰显 企业长期信心。 速冻调制食品稳健增长，短时间受餐饮及小龙虾拖累。分产品来看，公司上半 年速冻调制食品/菜肴制品/速冻面米制品/农副产品/休闲食品收入分别为 38.33/22.08/12.91/1.90/0.0015 亿 元 ， 分 别 同 比 +21.86%/+0.40%/+1.37%/-27.08%/-94.48%。其中，Q2 公司将 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 2.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.09% [1][2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company reached 721 million yuan, up 20.38% year-on-year [1][2] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 688 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.35% [1][2] - In the second quarter, the company reported operating revenue of 1.188 billion yuan, a 5.98% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 354 million yuan, up 6.74% [1][2] Group 2: Business Segmentation - Revenue from domestic personal office service subscriptions was 1.53 billion yuan, growing 22.17% year-on-year [2][7] - Revenue from domestic institutional subscription and service business was 443 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.95% [2][7] - Revenue from domestic institutional authorization business decreased by 10.14% to 325 million yuan, while international and other business revenue fell by 18.12% to 115 million yuan [2][7] Group 3: Customer Metrics - The number of monthly active devices for the company's main products reached 602 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.08% [2][8] - The cumulative number of annual paying individual users reached 38.15 million, reflecting a growth of 14.79% [2][8] - The company served over 18,000 major government and enterprise clients with its WPS365 product by the end of the reporting period [2][8] Group 4: Financial Health - The company's gross margin was 84.92%, a slight decrease of 1.15 percentage points year-on-year, but still at a high level [2][7] - Contract liabilities totaled 2.685 billion yuan, indicating a strong potential for long-term revenue growth [2][7] Group 5: AI and Product Development - The company launched WPSAI 2.0 and introduced the WPS365 productivity platform, enhancing its AI capabilities [4][8] - The integration of AIHub, AIDocs, and CopilotPro into the WPSAI Enterprise Edition aims to improve customer experience and retention [4][8] - The company collaborated with Huawei to develop a WPS version compatible with HarmonyOS, addressing cross-platform compatibility issues [4][8] Group 6: Industry Insights - In July, the national express service industry completed a business volume of 14.26 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.2% [5][9] - The average single ticket price in the express industry fell to 7.77 yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [5][9] - The ongoing price war in the express industry is pushing companies to enhance service quality and reduce homogenization [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [7][12][26] Core Views - Changshu Bank demonstrates outstanding growth characteristics with a leading profit growth rate in the industry [2][3] - The bank's revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024 increased by 12.0% and 19.6% year-on-year, respectively, indicating strong operational performance [2][3] - The bank's annualized weighted average ROE improved to 13.28%, up 0.88 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] Revenue Summary - Core revenue, which includes net interest income and net fee income, grew by 6.6% year-on-year, with net interest income increasing by 6.1% [4] - Fee income surged by 71.4%, driven by significant growth in agency services, particularly in wealth management and insurance [4] - Other non-interest income rose by 52.9%, accounting for 16.1% of total revenue, with investment income increasing by 96% due to favorable bond market conditions [4] Cost Summary - Management expenses decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, leading to a cost-to-income ratio of 35.2% [5] - Pre-provision profit grew by 23.2% year-on-year, reflecting effective cost control measures [5] - The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 538.8%, indicating a solid buffer against potential loan losses [5][13] Loan and Asset Quality Summary - Total assets increased by 15.6% year-on-year, with loans growing by 11.3% [6] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a slight increase in the ratio of loans under scrutiny [13] - The bank's loan growth was primarily driven by corporate lending, while retail lending saw a decline [6][13] Interest Margin Summary - The net interest margin (NIM) for the first half of 2024 was 2.79%, slightly down by 4 basis points from the previous quarter [7] - The bank's ability to maintain a competitive NIM is attributed to effective pricing strategies and a focus on small and medium-sized enterprises [12][13] Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue is projected to reach 108.7 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 10.2% [14] - Net profit is expected to grow to 38.9 billion in 2024, reflecting an 18.6% increase [14] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve to 14.6% by 2024 [14]