Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Shenhua [2][9] Core Views - The company is expected to continue high cash dividends, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.26 CNY per share, totaling 44.903 billion CNY, which represents 75.2% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, a 2.4 percentage point increase year-on-year [9] - The coal and power joint operation model is deepening, with significant growth in coal production and sales, and an expected increase in capacity from new projects [9] - The company’s net profit for 2023 was 59.694 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.3% year-on-year, while the average coal sales price fell by 9.3% to 584 CNY per ton [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 343.074 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 59.694 billion CNY, down 14.3% [2][10] - The average net asset return rate was 14.6%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [10] Coal Division - The average coal sales price (excluding tax) was 584 CNY per ton, down 9.3% year-on-year, while coal sales volume increased by 7.7% to 450 million tons [3] - The coal division's revenue was 273.306 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, primarily due to falling sales prices and rising production costs [3] Power Generation Division - Total power generation increased by 11.0% to 212.26 billion kWh, with sales volume rising by 11.1% to 199.75 billion kWh [3] - The revenue from the power generation division was 92.407 billion CNY, up 9.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points [3] Transportation and Coal Chemical Divisions - The transportation division saw a revenue increase of 1.8% to 42.961 billion CNY, while the coal chemical division's revenue decreased by 4.4% to 6.098 billion CNY [4] - The transportation division's operating costs rose by 9.5%, impacting the gross margin across all business segments [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to invest 11 billion CNY in new coal mining projects, with an expected production capacity of 16 million tons per year [9] - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to reach 60.316 billion CNY, 60.659 billion CNY, and 64.075 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.04 CNY, 3.05 CNY, and 3.22 CNY [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for CNOOC Services (601808.SH) [6] Core Views - CNOOC Services reported a revenue of RMB 44.109 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.013 billion, up 27.75% year-on-year [1][2] - The drilling services segment is recovering due to increased upstream capital expenditures, with a projected increase in performance [1][2] - The oilfield technical services segment, which accounted for 58.4% of total revenue in 2023, saw a revenue increase of RMB 25.6 billion, a growth of 31.4% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections Drilling Services - The drilling services segment is experiencing recovery driven by upstream capital expenditures, with a significant increase in operational days to 17,726, up 6.0% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from drilling services reached RMB 12.07 billion, reflecting a growth of 16.6% [1][2] Oilfield Technical Services - This segment is the largest revenue contributor, achieving RMB 25.76 billion in 2023, an increase of RMB 6.16 billion year-on-year [1][2] - The company has made significant investments in technology R&D, leading to innovations recognized in the industry [1] Ship Services and Geophysical Exploration - Ship services generated RMB 3.94 billion in revenue, a 5.9% increase from RMB 3.73 billion in 2022 [2] - Geophysical exploration and engineering services reported revenue of RMB 2.34 billion, up 17.7% from RMB 1.99 billion in 2022 [2] Profitability - The company's net profit for 2023 was RMB 3.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.35% [2] - The return on equity (ROE) improved to 7.2%, up 21.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.0%, reflecting a 29.4% increase [2] Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is RMB 3.89 billion, RMB 4.61 billion, and RMB 5.56 billion respectively [2][7]

宏 观 研 究 2024 年 4 月 10 日 宏观经济 事件点评 分析师 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 降息仍由通胀主导，年内降息概率略有下 降 ——美国 3 月非农数据点评 事件： 美国 3 月季调后非农就业增 30.3 万，预期 21.4 万，前值 27.5 万；失业率 3.8%，预期 3.8%，前值 3.9%。 主要观点： 1、 就业紧绷程度进一步下降，非常接近疫情前的高位，二季度非农总量无忧。 2、 就业主力医疗和政府为非周期性行业，扣除后非农环比新增较为低迷。 3、 美联储降息的诉求是在经济不出现衰退的前提下，政策利率能够匹配回落的通胀水平，即从限制性区域回落至略微限制 ~中性利率的区间，因此降息仍由通胀主导。 4、 降息最佳窗口为 5 月至三季度中期，但 5 月几无可能，降息窗口很窄，降息幅度进一步下降，由 50bp 降至 50~25bp。 5、 维持美国十年期国债利率下限 3.65~3.85%，上限 4.35~4.6%；美股维持短期没有明显风险点，长期中性。 就业紧绷程度进一步下降，二季度非农总量 ...

公 司 研 究 分析师：曹奕丰 021-25102904 caoyf_yjs@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号： S1480519050005 北京首都机场股份（00694.HK）：成本 管控到位，收入端有待国际客运恢复 事件：2023 年公司实现营收 45.59 亿元，同比增长 104.3%，其中航空性收入 20.97 亿元，同比增长 195.0%，非航收入 24.62 亿元，同比增长 61.9%。公 司税后净亏损为 16.97 亿元，较去年同期的 35.27 亿元减少 51.9%。 吞吐量回升带动航空与非航收入增长：23 年公司旅客吞吐量为 5288 万人次， 相当于 19 年同期的 53.0%，其中国内航线（不含港澳台）4520 万人次，同比 增长 269.0%，相当于 19 年同期的 62.7%，国际航线 618 万人次，同比增长 2359.6%，相当于 19 年同期的 25.8%。考虑到大兴机场的分流影响，我们认 为首都机场的国内旅客吞吐量已经得到了较好的恢复，后续增速会明显放缓。 今年 1-2 月，首都机场国际旅客量分别相当于 19 年同期的 43.4%和 49.5%， 因此预计今年国际吞吐量 ...

Company Overview - The report focuses on **China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)** (600938 SH), a Hong Kong-based investment holding company established on August 20, 1999, primarily engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, and trade [5] - CNOOC operates in markets including China, Canada, the UK, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Brazil, with its business segments covering conventional oil and gas, shale oil and gas, oil sands, and other unconventional oil and gas activities [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, CNOOC achieved **RMB 4160 09 billion** in revenue, a **1 33% YoY decline**, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of **RMB 1238 43 billion**, down **12 60% YoY** [5] - Despite a **19 29% YoY decline** in Brent crude oil prices to **USD 82 56 per barrel**, CNOOC's cost control was strong, with its main oil cost per barrel decreasing by **5 13%** to **USD 28 83** [5] - The company's oil and gas production reached a **5-year high** at **678 0 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE)**, exceeding its initial target of **650-660 million BOE** and marking an **8 65% YoY increase** [5] Future Outlook - CNOOC plans to increase its oil and gas production to **700-720**, **780-800**, and **810-830 million BOE** in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of **4 72%**, **11 27%**, and **3 80%**, respectively [5] - The company's capital expenditure in 2023 rose **27 46% YoY** to **RMB 1279 13 billion**, with a projected range of **RMB 1250-1350 billion** for 2024 to support further production growth [5] - CNOOC expects to launch several new projects in 2024, including the **Bozhong 19-2 oilfield development project**, **Deep Sea No 1 Phase II project**, and **Brazil's Mero3 project**, enhancing its growth potential [5] Dividend Policy - In 2023, CNOOC distributed **RMB 53 934 billion** in cash dividends, with a dividend payout ratio of **44%** [5] - The company's A-share dividend yield was **5 44%**, while its H-share dividend yield reached **9 62%** [5] - Since its listing in April 2022, CNOOC has paid cash dividends **3 times**, totaling **RMB 80 745 billion**, with a cumulative dividend payout ratio of **32 78%** and a total return ratio (including share repurchases) of **80 44%** [5] Valuation and Investment Rating - The report forecasts CNOOC's revenue for 2024-2026 to be **RMB 4349 88 billion**, **RMB 4612 20 billion**, and **RMB 4876 00 billion**, respectively, with net profits of **RMB 1312 10 billion**, **RMB 1478 85 billion**, and **RMB 1554 54 billion** [12] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at **RMB 2 76**, **RMB 3 11**, and **RMB 3 27**, with corresponding PE ratios of **10 85x**, **9 62x**, and **9 16x** [12] - The report upgrades CNOOC's rating to **"Strongly Recommend"** based on its strong cost control, stable earnings, and growth potential [20] Industry Context - The oil and gas industry is influenced by global economic trends, with **Brent crude oil prices** averaging **USD 82 56 per barrel** in 2023, down **19 29% YoY** [5] - CNOOC's performance in 2023 was resilient, with its profit decline being less severe than the drop in oil prices, highlighting its operational efficiency and cost management [5]

东 兴 晨 报 核心观点：我们认为国有行盈利端具有较强稳定性；高股息稳健分红，在利 率中枢下行背景下，配置价值凸显；机构低仓位、维稳市场资金增持预期强； 中央金融工作会议明确定调"支持国有大型金融机构做优做强"。多重利好因 素将对国有行估值修复形成持续支撑。 高股息吸引力强。从资产配置角度来看，在当前低增速、低通胀、低利率的 宏观环境下，防御高股息投资价值上升。当前银行板块股息率为 5.29%，处 于历史相对高位，成为高股息策略的较好选择。其中，国有大行平均股息率 达 5.35%，较 10 年期国债收益率溢价超 300BP。在利率中枢下行背景下，稳 定高股息的国有大行配置价值凸显（复盘 2008 年以来，在 10 年期国债收益 率下行期，国有大行相较沪深 300 均获得相对正收益）。同时，国有大行分红 稳定性强，部分银行已将最低分红率要求写入公司章程。近五年国有大行分 红比例稳定在 30%，分红收益有保障。 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------|-------|--- ...

行 业 研 究 银行行业：盈利承压在预期之内， 2024年4月9日 看好/维持 高股息价值仍突出 东 银行 行业报告 兴 ——国有行 2023 年业绩综述 证 券 业绩概览：盈利进一步承压符合预期。2023年，国有行营收、净利润 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 增速预计之内环比下降。拆解来看，息差收窄是最大负向影响；规模 4月：上市银行披露年报、一季报 份 扩张、其他非息增长和拨备计提减少是盈利正增的主要支撑。各因素 有 影响幅度均符合预期。 限 资料来源：iFinD、东兴证券研究所 公 收入拆解：息差继续成为主要拖累。（1）净利息收入：整体降幅有所 行业基本资料 占比% 司 扩大，主要是第四季度存量按揭贷款重定价影响，息差环比收窄、量 股票家数 50 1.09% 证 难补价。其中，中行、邮储实现了净利息收入同比正增长，主要得益 行业市值(亿元) 109667.75 12.79% 券 于其息差收窄幅度相对较小。（2）手续费及佣金净收入：由于2023年 流通市值(亿元) 74778.81 10.92% 研 资本市场震荡，且行业面临降费压力，国有行手续费收入继续承压。 行业平均市盈率 5.28 / 究 其中，仅中行 ...

行业要闻：深圳明确符合条件的安居房可补差价后上市，杭州放开二手房限购。3 月 13 日，《深圳市安居型商 品房产权管理有关事项处理办法（征求意见稿）》发布，明确了安居型商品房符合条件者可补差价后上市交易。 3 月 14 日，杭州市发布通知，优化二手住房限购政策，在该市范围内购买二手住房，不再审核购房人资格； 同时明确优化增值税征免年限，该市范围内个人出售住房的增值税征免年限统一调整为 2 年。 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 从细分贷款资产质量来看：①对公相对平稳：2023 年末，一般企业贷款不良率为 0.74%，同比微升 2BP。重 点领域，对公房地产贷款不良率同比下降 57BP 至 0.86%；地方政府融资平台（含整改为一般公司类贷款和仍 按平台管理贷款）贷款余额 789.93 亿，无不良贷款。②零售有所波动：2023 年末，个贷不良率为 1.37%， 同比上升 5BP。其中，信用卡不良率最高（2.77%、同比上升 9BP），消费贷不良率次之（1.23%、同比上升 15BP）。经营贷、住房按揭贷款不良率相对较低，分别为 0.83%、0.3%，同比上升 9BP、2BP。我们判断， 在当前经 ...

交易数据 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 52 周股价走势图 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 公司是一家专注于兽用生物制品研发、生 产、销售及动物防疫技术服务的生物医药企 业。构建了兽用生物制品的完整产业链，完 成了涵盖畜用疫苗、禽用疫苗、宠物疫苗等 产品布局。 资料来源：公司公告、恒生聚源 未来 3-6 个月重大事项提示： 2024-04-22 年度股东大会 2024-04-30 一季报披露 资料来源：公司公告、恒生聚源 发债及交叉持股介绍： 无 资料来源：公司公告、恒生聚源 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|---------------| | | | | 52 周股价区间（元） | 28.32-14.37 | | 总市值（亿元） | 91.56 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 91.55 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（万股） | 46,617/46,617 | | 流通 B 股 /H 股（万股） | -/- | | 52 周日均换手率 | 1.7 | -57.0% -43.9% -30.8% -17.7% -4.5% 8.6% 4/3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 30.75 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.62 billion yuan, up 11.08% year-on-year [2][4]. - The domestic revenue grew steadily, while the gross margin for overseas projects improved significantly [2]. - The company has effectively controlled expenses, with a net cash flow from operating activities reaching a record high of 5.13 billion yuan, a 54.67% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - The new production targets set by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) provide strong support for future work volume [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): 2022A: 29,358.37, 2023A: 30,752.04, 2024E: 33,414.78, 2025E: 36,323.17, 2026E: 39,500.74 [4]. - Net profit (in million yuan): 2022A: 1,457.41, 2023A: 1,620.51, 2024E: 1,888.54, 2025E: 2,077.83, 2026E: 2,148.68 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 6.54% in 2023, increasing to 7.29% in 2024 [4][9]. Company Overview - The company is the only large-scale engineering contractor in China that integrates offshore oil and gas development engineering and liquefied natural gas engineering [5]. - It is one of the largest EPCI contractors in the Asia-Pacific region [5]. Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 30.375 billion yuan [6]. - The stock price has ranged between 6.97 and 5.14 yuan over the past 52 weeks [6].