Group 1 - The report analyzes the valuation of major global indices, highlighting that the S&P 500 is closest to its historical peak, being 16.56% lower than its highest value, while the Hang Seng Index is 25.97% above its historical low [1][7] - The report indicates that the A-share market saw an increase in valuation during the week of March 11-15, with significant policy signals from the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at enhancing the quality of listed companies [7][10] - Among the major sectors, coal saw the largest increase in closing prices at 4.52%, while non-ferrous metals experienced the largest decline at -3.8% [19][53] Group 2 - The report details that 21 sectors experienced an increase in PE (TTM) ratios, while 9 sectors saw a decrease during the week of March 11-15 [51][52] - The consumer sector showed the largest increase in valuation, with consumer services rising by 6.55%, followed by light industry manufacturing at 4.95% [53][48] - The report notes that the current PE (TTM) values for the top three sectors are computer, defense and military, and electronics, while the bottom three are banking, construction, and coal [49][50] Group 3 - The report highlights that the risk premium for major A-share indices showed differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.02% during the week of March 11-15 [38][60] - The report indicates that the risk premium for the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.20%, reflecting a downward trend in its valuation [59][60] - The report also mentions that the valuation contribution from the CSI 500 was the most significant during the week, indicating a notable change in market dynamics [26][53]

分析师推荐 【东兴交通运输】快递行业 1-2 月数据点评：低基数下维持较高增速，价格 竞争或将逐步缓解（20240325） 事件：2 月全国快递服务企业业务完成量 85.6 亿件，同比下降 15.6%。其中 同城件业务量下滑 12.2%，异地件业务量下滑 16.6%，业务量下滑主要系春节 错期。通过将 1-2 月数据合计以消除春节影响，我们可以发现今年年初快递 行业业务量增速依旧维持较高水平。1-2 月全国快递服务企业业务完成量 232.6 亿件，同比提升 28.6%。其中同城件业务量提升 28.3%，异地件业务量 提升 28.5%。 上市公司业务量增速维持较快增长：1-2 月行业业务量快速增长一方面是由 于去年年初行业受疫情影响基数较低，另一方面是经历了去年一年较为激烈 的价格竞争，今年行业单票价格同比下降，刺激了业务量的提升。 考虑 1-2 月合计，申通、韵达、圆通、和顺丰的业务量增速分别为 40.0%、 27.0%、26.6%和4.9%，顺丰若考虑不含丰网的口径则1-2月累计增速为14.5%。 与行业 1-2 月 28.6%的累计增速相比，申通增速依旧明显高于行业，韵达与 圆通增速接近行业均值；顺丰主营 ...

行 业 研 究 证券行业：证监会六文齐发强监管， 2024年3月19日 看好/维持 行业环境或将发生质变 东 非银行金融 行业报告 兴 证 事件：证监会3月15日集中发布六项政策，包含《关于加强证券公司和公募 未来3-6个月行业大事： 券 基金监管加快推进建设一流投资银行和投资机构的意见（试行）》、《关于加强 无 股 上市公司监管的意见（试行）》、《关于严把发行上市准入关从源头上提高上市 行业基本资料 占比% 份 公司质量的意见（试行）》、《关于落实政治过硬能力过硬作风过硬标准全面加 有 股票家数 83 1.8% 强证监会系统自身建设的意见》、《首次公开发行股票并上市辅导监管规定（修 限 行业市值(亿元) 54891.71 6.43% 订稿）》、《首发企业现场检查规定（修订稿）》。 公 流通市值(亿元) 42485.77 6.24% 司 做大做强做精，打造具备国际竞争力的投行和投资机构。证监会首次明确行业 行业平均市盈率 16.31 / 证 中期和长期战略发展规划，提出通过五年左右时间，形成 10 家左右优质头部 行业指数走势图 券 机构引领行业高质量发展；到2035年形成2-3家具备国际竞争力与市场引领 研 ...

行 业 研 究 银行行业：社融同比少增，信贷需 2024年3月18日 看好/维持 求仍较弱 东 银行 行业报告 兴 ——2 月社融金融数据点评 证 券 事件：3月15日人民银行披露2024年2月金融数据：新增贷款1.45 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 万亿元，社融新增1.52万亿元（社融口径新增信贷9799亿元）。2月 3月20日 LPR报价 份 末，M2 YoY+8.7%；M1 YoY +1.2%；社融增速9.0% 3-4月 上市银行披露年报 有 限 点评： 公 资料来源：iFinD 前两月社融同比少增超万亿，信贷和政府债同比均少增。前两月社融 行业基本资料 占比% 司 累计新增8.06万亿，同比少增1.1万亿，主要源于①信贷少增（前两 证 股票家数 50 1.09% 月增5.82万亿，同比少增9298亿），反映了实体信贷需求偏弱；②政 券 行业市值(亿元) 107274.9 12.56% 府债融资少增，主要是地方政府债发行偏慢。主要增量项目是企业债 研 券融资，前两月累计新增6592亿，同比多增1299亿。社融增速回落。 流通市值(亿元) 73111.86 10.73% 究 去年4季度由于政府债券发行力度 ...

Group 1: Education Industry - The government emphasizes the importance of private education and vocational training, aiming to enhance the quality of education and support the diversification of higher education [1] - The investment strategy highlights strong internal demand in the education sector, with clear and stable policy signals, indicating a positive outlook for non-subject quality education and private education [1] - Key companies expected to benefit include Xueda Education, New Oriental, TAL Education, Gaotu, and Excellence Education Group [1] Group 2: Real Estate Industry - In the first two months of 2024, new home sales and construction areas significantly declined, with sales area down by 20.5% and sales amount down by 29.3% year-on-year [3] - The new construction area also saw a sharp decline of 30.5%, indicating ongoing pressure on sales and development investment [3] - The report suggests that urban village renovations and affordable housing construction are crucial for stimulating real estate investment and market demand [4] Group 3: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry experienced a strong performance during the Spring Festival, with passenger transport volume reaching 17.99 million, a 25.1% increase compared to 2019 [6] - Domestic airlines saw a significant increase in load factors, with an overall rise of approximately 4.6 percentage points [9] - The report indicates that the recovery of international routes is underway, with capacity utilization improving to about 82% compared to 2019 [11] Group 4: Banking Industry - The report indicates a weak growth in social financing, with a year-on-year increase of only 9.0% in February, reflecting weak demand for credit [13] - The structure of new loans is favorable, but individual loans have significantly decreased due to weak housing mortgage demand [15] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on high-growth regional banks and stable dividend-paying state-owned banks, as the industry is expected to maintain stable profitability [16] Group 5: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The capital market is seeing improved conditions, with daily trading volume increasing by approximately 500 billion to 1.04 trillion [27] - Recent policies from the securities regulatory authority aim to enhance investor confidence and improve the quality of listed companies [29] - The report anticipates a positive cycle between policy, market, and investors, which could accelerate the recovery of the capital market [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous decline in new home sales, with a year-on-year decrease of -31.95% in the cumulative sales area of commercial housing across 26 cities from January 1 to March 17, 2024 [3][12]. - The report notes that first-tier cities are experiencing a significant drop in both new and second-hand home sales, with second-hand home sales in 13 cities down by -14.41% year-to-date [3][20]. - Policy changes, such as the lifting of second-hand housing purchase restrictions in Hangzhou and adjustments to housing fund loan requirements in Tianjin, are expected to impact market dynamics positively [24][25]. Market Performance - The A-share real estate index (801180.SL) increased by 4.47% during the week of March 11-15, 2024, outperforming the broader market [3][6]. - The H-share real estate index (HSPDM.HK) also saw a rise of 4.65% during the same period [10]. Sales Data - New home sales in first-tier cities showed a year-on-year decline of -32.14% for the same period, with a monthly decline of -42.29% in March [3][12]. - Second-hand home sales in first-tier cities experienced a year-to-date decline of -18.82%, with a monthly decline of -36.89% in March [20][22]. Industry News - Recent policy announcements include the Shenzhen government's new measures for affordable housing and the optimization of second-hand housing purchase policies in Hangzhou, which are expected to stimulate market activity [24][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality central state-owned enterprises in first and second-tier cities, which are likely to benefit from ongoing policy support and urban renewal projects [4][25].

行 业 研 究 航空机场 2 月数据点评：春运数据强劲 2024年3月18日 看好/维持 验证旺季弹性，淡季表现还需重点关注 东 交通运输 行业报告 兴 证 事件：上市航司发布2月运营数据。民航业受春运的带动，国内与国际需求都 未来3-6个月行业大事： 券 有较明显的提升，主要体现为客座率环比大幅增长。 2024-4-10民航局公布2024年3月民航运行 股 数据 份 国内航线：需求旺盛带动客座率环比大幅增长 2024-4-15起上市公司披露2024年3月运行 有 2月的春运中，民航业数据表现强劲。航班管家发布的数据显示，2024年春节 数据 限 期间（2月10日-2月17日），民航旅客运输量达1799.2万人次，日均达224.9 公 万人次，为历年春节最高水平，日均旅客运输量较2019年同期增长25.1%， 行业基本资料 占比% 司 较2023年同期增长74.8%。除了量的增长外，票价的提升也较为明显。航班 股票家数 128 2.78% 证 管家数据显示，2024年春节期间，民航经济舱平均票价达1011元，较2019 行业市值(亿元) 29040.67 3.4% 券 年增长16%，较2023年增长19.5% ...

行 业 研 究 非银行金融行业跟踪：政策加速推 2024年3月18日 看好/维持 进落地，资本市场生态有望持续改 东 非银行金融 行业报告 兴 善 证 券 证券：本周日均成交额环比增加约500亿至1.04万亿；两融余额（3月14日） 未来3-6个月行业大事： 股 回升至 1.52 万亿。继证监会吴清主席在两会记者会上表态后，资本市场相关 无 份 政策正加速推进落地。本周证监会连发六文，分别涉及加强上市公司监管、从 行业基本资料 占比% 有 上市准入源头提高上市公司质量、加快推进一流投资银行和投资机构、加强证 限 股票家数 83 1.8% 监会自身建设、首发企业现场检查、IPO&上市辅导监管。上述政策主要聚焦 公 行业市值(亿元) 54891.71 6.43% 三个方面：1.不断优化资本市场环境，特别是从上市公司层面（涉及分红、减 司 流通市值(亿元) 42485.77 6.24% 持、财务报表编制、信息披露等）和中介机构层面加强监管，提升投资者信心 证 和获得感，吸引中长期价投资金进场；2.建设一流投资银行和投资机构，聚焦 行业平均市盈率 16.31 / 券 做大、做强、做精，到2035年形成2-3家具备国际 ...

行 业 研 究 社会服务行业：政策信号积极明朗， 2024年3月18日 看好/维持 教育行业合规化发展 东 消费者服务 行业报告 兴 证 事件：全国两会近期召开，在《2024 年政府工作报告》中明确提出“引导规 未来3-6个月行业大事： 券 范民办教育发展，大力提高职业教育质量”、“大力发展数字教育”、“开展基础 无 股 教育扩优提质行动”等内容。我们结合本次政府工作报告和此前《校外培训管 份 理条例（征求意见稿）》内容，认为未来教育行业以下几条主线值得关注： 有 行业基本资料 占比% 限 政策信号清晰稳定，教育行业合规化发展。政府工作报告提出“开展基础教育 公 扩优提质行动，加快义务教育优质均衡化和城乡一体化，持续深化“双减”， 股票家数 39 0.85% 司 推动学前教育普惠发展，加强县域普通高中建设”，主要落脚点在于进一步提 行业市值(亿元) 4018.53 0.47% 证 升校内教育的优质性与均衡性。而此前发布的《校外培训管理条例（征求意见 流通市值(亿元) 3647.22 0.54% 券 稿）》中，明确提出要规范校外培训活动，提高校外培训质量，满足多样化的 行业平均市盈率 44.37 / 研 文化教 ...

首 席 观 点 宏观：美国通胀仍有粘性，降息窗口较窄 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 幅度预期过于乐观。当经济特别是地产开始恢复对利率的敏感度时，降息幅度应更为谨慎。 刘航 | 东兴证券电子行业首席分析师 首席周观点：2024 年第 11 周2024 年 3 月 15 日 首席观点 周度观点 我们关于降息节奏的观点逐步得到印证：即最早不会早于 5月。维持若要避免后期过早衰退， 停留在 5.25%上方的时间不宜过长的观点。关于降息节点，1、2 月非农和通胀均较强，一季 度降息可能不大已被市场接受，目前市场预期首次降息为 6 月。无论劳动力市场还是房地产 市场，虽有所缓和但仍处于紧绷状态，叠加拜登政府推出的基建法案，建筑业也进入相对繁 荣期，过早降息可能会引起后期通胀反弹。降息时间节点可以参考核心 CPI 环比跌落当前 0.3% 这一平台的时间点，比如连续 2 个月不高于 0.2%。 东兴证券研究报告 风险提示：全球通胀超预期导致全球衰退。 电子：捷捷微电（300623.SZ）：业绩环比明显改善，打造 IDM 全产业链布局 2024 年 3 月 13 日，捷捷微电发布 2023 年 ...