证券研究报告·北交所报告·北交所专题报告 北交所专题报告 20260226 工程机械复苏动能稳步释放，建议关注北交 所工程机械相关标的 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 2026 年 02 月 26 日 证券分析师 朱洁羽 执业证书：S0600520090004 zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 易申申 执业证书：S0600522100003 yishsh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 余慧勇 执业证书：S0600524080003 yuhy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 武阿兰 执业证书：S0600124070018 wual@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 陈哲晓 执业证书：S0600124080015 sh_chenzhx@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《年度业绩快报密集发布，北证 50 上 涨 0.77%》 2026-02-25 《人民银行开展 5260 亿元 7 天期逆 回购操作，北证 50 上涨 0.37%》 2026-02-24 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 工程机械行业自 2025 年下半年进 ...

Market News - Shanghai has initiated the first major relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in 2026, implementing a "new seven measures" to lower barriers for non-local buyers and improve housing loan conditions[6] - The new policy is expected to stimulate demand in the real estate market, leading to a "volume increase and price stability" trend in Shanghai's housing market[7] Industry News - Short-seller Citron Capital has taken a short position against SanDisk, citing cyclical pressures in the NAND industry and increased competition from Samsung, causing SanDisk's stock to drop over 8%[9] - During the recent Spring Festival holiday, sales of home appliances and digital products exceeded 5.1 million units, marking a 21.7% increase compared to last year[11] Market Performance - As of February 25, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index rose by 0.77%, while the ChiNext index increased by 1.41% and the A-share index rose by 0.73%[12] - The average market capitalization of the 294 constituent stocks in the North Exchange is 3.214 billion, with a trading volume of 18.656 billion, an increase of 2.277 billion from the previous trading day[12] Company Announcements - Companies such as Thunder God Technology and Haidaer have released their annual performance reports, with Thunder God reporting a revenue of 3.042 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.93%[23] - Haidaer reported a revenue of 371 million, a decrease of 11.15% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 20.21%[33] Risk Warning - There are risks of individual stock earnings falling short of expectations, intensified industry competition, and potential trade frictions impacting market stability[36]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - Focus on investment opportunities in the M9 PCB supply chain and CPO industry chain, highlighting key players such as 菲利华, 东材科技, and 英伟达 [2] - The report emphasizes the technological evolution of SerDes, which drives the upgrade of interconnect media for computing power, indicating a shift towards M9 materials and optical packaging [4][9] - The Rubin Ultra cabinet is expected to significantly enhance the performance of M9 materials and NPO optical engines, marking a definitive growth trend [4][34] - The CPO switch market is poised for rapid expansion, with core suppliers likely to benefit from increased demand for optical components [4][46] Summary by Sections 1. SerDes Evolution and Interconnect Media Upgrade - Continuous upgrades in SerDes technology are driving the growth of GPU interconnect bandwidth, with Nvidia's architectures showing a clear trend of doubling speeds from 56Gbps to 224Gbps [9][19] - The transition to M9 materials is necessary to support the increasing demands of SerDes speeds, as traditional materials cannot handle the higher frequencies without significant losses [19][22] - The report outlines the need for advanced materials and manufacturing techniques to meet the requirements of next-generation SerDes, emphasizing the importance of low-loss substrates [24][25] 2. Rubin Ultra Scale-Up Architecture - The Rubin Ultra cabinet achieves a groundbreaking total bandwidth of 1.5PB/s, representing a 12-fold increase over previous models, facilitated by a dual-layer network structure [34][37] - The internal network utilizes orthogonal backplane technology to minimize signal loss and latency, crucial for high-density GPU communication [38][42] - The second layer of the network employs NPO technology for inter-Canister communication, significantly enhancing bandwidth and reducing power consumption [43][45] 3. CPO Switch Product Matrix - Nvidia's Quantum X800-Q3450 is the first CPO switch to market, featuring a total switching bandwidth of 115.2T, showcasing advancements in port density and performance [46][49] - The upcoming Spectrum-X series will further expand Nvidia's CPO offerings, providing a complete technology layout from InfiniBand to Ethernet [54][57] - The design of the Spectrum-X switches emphasizes maintainability and redundancy, addressing challenges associated with tightly integrated optical components [58]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that there is potential for interest rate cuts in 2026, with expectations of one rate cut or a 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio reduction, while retaining the possibility of two additional rate cuts depending on economic growth and financial market conditions [1][14]. Fixed Income Analysis - The semiconductor industry faces significant financing challenges due to its high capital intensity and long investment cycles. Despite the inclusion of semiconductor companies in the "bond technology board" for support, there remains a structural mismatch between the bond market's capabilities and the industry's needs, particularly for private companies [2]. - The report analyzes the bond financing strategies of three leading semiconductor companies: SK Hynix, ASML, and Broadcom, highlighting how their financing paths align with their strategic development phases [16][17]. Real Estate Policy Impact - The report evaluates the effects of housing loan interest subsidy policies, noting significant regional disparities in their effectiveness. For instance, Nanjing's Rain Flower District saw a 28.6% increase in residential sales, while other regions like Wuhan and Hangzhou experienced declines [3][19]. - If a nationwide 1% subsidy policy is implemented, the estimated fiscal cost could reach approximately 470 billion yuan, depending on the coverage of new and existing loans [4][19]. Company Recommendations - **Oriental Electric (600875)**: The company is expected to see steady growth in its energy equipment business, with projected net profits of 35.0 billion, 45.2 billion, and 54.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 20%, 29%, and 20% respectively. A target price of 41.9 yuan is set, with a "buy" rating [5][21]. - **China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK)**: The company is positioned to benefit from the unique export of cigarettes in the domestic duty-free market, with an upward adjustment in profit forecasts due to expected improvements in gross margins [6][22]. - **Liyang Chip (688135)**: The company is expanding its high-end testing capacity and is expected to continue growing, with a focus on automotive electronics and other emerging applications [7][8]. - **Sany Heavy Industry (600031)**: As a global leader in construction machinery, the company is projected to benefit from the industry recovery, with net profits forecasted at 85 billion, 111 billion, and 127 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document doesn't provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The semiconductor industry is of strategic importance, but its financing system faces challenges. The report analyzes the bond financing strategies of three overseas semiconductor companies to provide reference for Chinese semiconductor companies and the domestic bond market [9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Asia: SK Hynix Inc - **Company Overview**: A global leading semiconductor storage solutions provider, focusing on memory chips with products like DRAM, NAND flash, and CIS. In 2025, it became the world's largest DRAM manufacturer and had a strong position in other markets [12][14][15]. - **Development Path**: It went through four stages: "start - up and foundation - building (1983 - 1998)", "scale expansion (1999 - 2011)", "strategic transformation (2012 - 2020)", and "AI - enabled (2021 - 2025)". It achieved strategic upgrades through technology iteration and capacity expansion [16][17][20]. - **Bond Issuance History and Changes**: The bond - issuing mode evolved from "point - like exploratory financing" to "normalized, large - scale, diversified strategic financing". The financing strategy changed in different stages, with the bond financing frequency, term, and coupon rate showing corresponding characteristics [24][31][34]. 3.2 Europe: ASML Holding NV - **Company Overview**: The global leader in semiconductor lithography equipment, with a monopoly in the EUV market. Its products include EUV, DUV lithography equipment, and related services. In 2025, it further consolidated its monopoly position [46][47][48]. - **Development Path**: It went through three stages: "breaking through difficulties (1984 - 2007)", "technological monopoly (2007 - 2013)", and "ecosystem binding (2013 - present)". It achieved a leading position through technological focus and strategic choices [49][50][54]. - **Bond Issuance History and Changes**: The bond - issuing mode evolved from "supplementary financing" to "strategic supporting financing". The financing strategy was adjusted according to different development stages, with the bond financing frequency, term, and coupon rate changing accordingly [57][62][65]. 3.3 United States: Broadcom Inc - **Company Overview**: A global leading provider of semiconductor chips and infrastructure software solutions, with a dual - business pattern of "semiconductor chips + infrastructure software". It ranked 7th in the global semiconductor companies in 2025 [77][79]. - **Development Path**: It went through three stages: "merger and acquisition expansion (1991 - 2013)", "technology integration (2013 - 2018)", and "chip + software ecosystem closed - loop (2018 - present)". It reshaped its business through mergers and acquisitions [81][82][85]. - **Bond Issuance History and Changes**: The bond - issuing mode evolved from "supplementary R & D financing" to "merger - driven large - scale financing". The financing strategy was closely related to the merger and acquisition process, with the bond financing frequency, term, and coupon rate showing different characteristics in different stages [86][93][94].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20260225 若政府房贷贴息政策实施，效果如何？ 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 当前，中国房地产市场正处于新旧动能转换、寻求新的动态平衡的关键 阶段。2025 年末至 2026 年初，市场环境呈现出新的特点：一方面，存 量房贷利率与住房公积金贷款利率的同步下调，已将居民购房成本推至 近年来的新低；另一方面，市场信心的稳固仍需更多精准、有效且可持 续的政策支持，尤其在"高月供挤压消费"这一矛盾上，亟待破题。在 此背景下，由财政资金主导的"房贷贴息"政策，存在从地方试点走向 大众的可能性，构建了"财政补息差、银行扩投放、购房者享红利"的 格局。 观点 ◼ 试点城市政策效果评估：对房地产销售的影响 ◼ 从已实施贴息政策的城市数据看，政策效果存在显著的区域性差异。南 京市雨花台区的政策促进效果最为突出：2024 年 6 月至 12 月期间，其 商品住宅销售面积同比上升 28.6%，大幅领先于同期南京全市 4.9%的同 比增幅，短期刺激效应明显。其他试点区域的相对起色有限：武汉 2025 年 1 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20260225 从利率曲线"久期分割"看 2026 年货币政策 空间 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 核心观点 2026 年 02 月 25 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪 或会好转【勘误版】》 2026-02-24 《市场短期进入结构混沌期，但大盘 指数仍然稳健【勘误版】》 2026-02-24 东吴证券研究所 1 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 2025 年 5 月"降息"以来的利率市场运行特点，我们总结认为当前中债 利率曲线出现了不同影响因素驱动的"久期分割"：货币政策管住短端 利率、通胀预期在影响中端利率、财政融资主导长端利率。在"久期分 割"的市场特征下，10 年期与主要政策利率的利差、30 年期和 10 年期 利率的利差或仍有继续陡峭化的空间。 ◼ 2026 年以来利率调控思路的变化：（1）在流动性 ...

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 526 billion yuan, achieving a net withdrawal of 926.4 billion yuan[6] - The operation interest rate was set at 1.4%[6] - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged for 9 consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%[7] - A 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation is scheduled for February 25, 2026, to maintain liquidity in the banking system[8] Industry News - China and Germany's bilateral trade has remained above 200 billion USD, with mutual investments exceeding 65 billion USD, accounting for nearly 25% of China's total trade with the EU[9] - The tourism-related service sales revenue increased by over 39% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, with daily sales growth of 13.7% compared to the previous year[12][13] Market Performance - On February 24, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index rose by 0.37%, while the ChiNext index increased by 0.99%[16] - The average market capitalization of the North Exchange component stocks was 3.195 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 16.379 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.057 billion yuan from the previous trading day[16] - Among the North Exchange stocks, 242 stocks closed higher, with *ST Yun Chuang leading at a 29.97% increase[17]

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·其他电源设备Ⅱ 东方电气（600875） 东方巨擎，筑能源之基 2026 年 02 月 24 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 60,677 | 69,695 | 80,756 | 90,713 | 99,988 | | 同比（%） | 9.60 | 14.86 | 15.87 | 12.33 | 10.22 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,550 | 2,922 | 3,501 | 4,524 | 5,440 | | 同比（%） | 24.23 | (17.70) | 19.80 | 29.23 | 20.24 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.03 | 0.84 | 1.01 | 1.31 | 1.57 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 32.96 | 40.05 | 33.43 | 25.87 | 21.51 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-25 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 金融产品周报 20260207：海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪或会好转【勘 误版】 市场行情展望：（2026.2.2-2026.2.6） 观点：市场短期进入结构混沌期， 但大盘指数仍然稳健。 2 月整体走势判断：2026 年 2 月，宏观择时模 型的月度评分是 0 分，历史上该分数万得全 A 指数后续一个月上涨概率 为 78.57%，平均涨幅为 3.37%。叠加日历效应中财报预告的结束，我们 对 2 月 A 股大盘走势持乐观的观点。但鉴于 1 月权益已累计不少盈利盘， 春节前可能有一定的止盈压力。 本周 A 股中，宽基 ETF 仍在持续流出, 但能观察到 1 月 30 日多数宽基 ETF 呈现明显成交额缩小的特征，说明 后续来自宽基 ETF 的抛压可能会逐步减小。同时通信、芯片、化工、石 油石化、港股非银等方向呈现资金流入的特征，可以关注后续资金的持续 性。 结构上，市场短期呈现混沌期特点。上周提示过的周期性行业表现 相对不错，石油、化工等方向仍旧较为稳健。但有 ...