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海外周报20250921:美联储降息后,市场交易逻辑将如何转变?-20250921
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-21 13:01
Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25bps as expected during the September FOMC meeting, with indications of two more rate cuts within the year and an additional cut next year, which is more hawkish than market expectations[2] - Following the FOMC meeting, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.31bps to 4.127%, while the 2-year yield increased by 1.59bps to 3.572%[3] - The market initially reacted to a more dovish 2025 dot plot but later adjusted to a more hawkish outlook for 2026, influenced by Powell's statements[3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 1.22% and 2.21% respectively, driven by the Fed's rate cut and positive developments in U.S.-China TikTok negotiations[3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.10% to 97.64, reflecting a mixed response to the Fed's actions and economic data[3] - Gold prices initially rose by 1.16% to $3685 per ounce but later declined, indicating volatility in response to the Fed's hawkish stance[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, surpassing expectations of 0.2%, with core retail sales (excluding autos) rising by 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4%[3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 fell to 231,000, below the expected 240,000, indicating a strengthening labor market[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a Q3 2025 GDP growth of 3.3%, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates it at 2.1%[3] Group 4: Political Risks - The failure of temporary spending bills in the Senate raises the risk of a federal government shutdown on October 1, increasing political uncertainty in the market[4] - The potential for Trump to gain more influence over the Federal Reserve could lead to a shift from a data-dependent to a Trump-dependent policy framework, impacting future monetary policy decisions[4]
非银金融行业跟踪周报:基本面向好趋势确定性高,保险、券商估值修复均可期-20250921
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-21 12:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The fundamentals of the non-bank financial industry show a positive trend with high certainty of recovery in valuations for insurance and brokerage firms [1] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sub-Industry Performance - In the recent five trading days (September 15-19, 2025), only the diversified financial sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with diversified finance down 0.03%, securities down 3.55%, insurance down 4.80%, and the overall non-bank financial sector down 3.80% [10][11] - Year-to-date performance shows diversified finance up 11.54%, insurance up 5.74%, brokerage up 4.47%, and the overall non-bank financial sector up 5.27%, while the CSI 300 index is up 14.41% [11][12] Securities Sector - Trading volume has significantly increased year-on-year, with the average daily trading volume for September reaching CNY 28,214 billion, up 209.19% year-on-year and 7.65% month-on-month [16] - The margin trading balance as of September 18 was CNY 24,025 billion, up 75.22% year-on-year and 28.85% since the beginning of the year [16] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.3x for 2025, with recommendations for leading firms benefiting from active capital market policies, such as CITIC Securities and Dongfang Zhi Tong [21] Insurance Sector - The net profit of listed insurance companies showed a slight increase, with a total net profit of CNY 1,782 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [23] - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance remains high, with significant growth rates reported by major firms, driven by improved value rates due to declining interest rates and increased new premium sales [23] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.65-0.86 times the 2025E P/EV, which is considered historically low, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [27] Diversified Financial Sector - The trust industry saw its total assets reach CNY 29.56 trillion by the end of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 23.58%, although profits have significantly declined [29] - The futures market experienced a trading volume of 10.59 billion contracts in July, with a transaction value of CNY 71.31 trillion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 48.89% and 36.03% respectively [36] - The report suggests that innovation in risk management will be a key direction for the futures industry moving forward [41] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the industry is insurance > securities > diversified finance, with key recommendations including China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, and Dongfang Zhi Tong [47]
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:受节前补库影响,港口煤价有所上涨-20250921
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-21 08:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The port coal price has increased due to pre-holiday stockpiling, with the current price at 704 RMB/ton, up by 24 RMB/ton week-on-week [1] - Supply from the four ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased, with an average daily inflow of 1.4861 million tons, down by 127,400 tons or 7.90% from the previous week [1] - Demand has also weakened, with a daily outflow of 1.5383 million tons, down by 45,100 tons or 2.85% week-on-week [1] - The total inventory in the Bohai Rim ports has decreased to 20.61 million tons, down by 207,700 tons or 9.16% from the previous week [1] - The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term due to seasonal demand fluctuations and decreasing temperatures [1] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,820.09 points, down 1.05% week-on-week, while the coal sector index rose by 2.16% to 2,735.68 points [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector reached 73.185 billion RMB, an increase of 91.54% from the previous week [10] Production and Pricing - Domestic coal prices have shown stability with slight increases; for instance, the price of 5500 kcal coal in Datong rose by 37 RMB/ton to 597 RMB/ton [18] - The international coal price index has shown a slight decline, with the Newcastle coal price down by 6.67 USD/ton to 101.11 USD/ton [20] Inventory and Shipping - The average daily shipping volume in the Bohai Rim has decreased, with a total inventory reduction indicating a tightening supply situation [28][31] - Domestic shipping costs have increased by 19.91%, now averaging 35.53 RMB/ton [33] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as potential investment opportunities due to their low valuations and market elasticity [35]
大炼化周报:长丝产销数据承压-20250921
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-21 08:29
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The domestic key refining projects' price spread this week is 2516 CNY/ton, down by 19 CNY/ton (1% decrease) compared to the previous week, while the foreign key refining projects' price spread is 1181 CNY/ton, down by 12 CNY/ton (1% decrease) [2]. - In the polyester sector, the average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6704, 6936, and 7982 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -86, -143, and -39 CNY/ton. The weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 79, -33, and 64 CNY/ton respectively [2]. - The operating rate for polyester filament is 91.5%, which is a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [2]. - The downstream weaving machine operating rate is 62.2%, down by 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [2]. - The average price of PX this week is 831.9 USD/ton, down by 3.7 USD/ton, with a price spread compared to crude oil of 338.7 USD/ton, down by 11.6 USD/ton [2]. - The report highlights several listed companies in the refining and polyester sectors, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices for gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene have increased this week [2]. - The average price of Brent crude oil is 67.6 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [9]. 2. Polyester Sector - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 6704, 6936, and 7982 CNY/ton respectively, with corresponding week-on-week changes [9]. - The inventory days for POY, FDY, and DTY are 20.6, 28.8, and 31.5 days respectively, with slight increases week-on-week [9]. - The operating rates for PX, PTA, and MEG are 85.3%, 75.5%, and 70.9% respectively [9]. 3. Chemical Sector - The report provides insights into the average prices and profit margins for various chemical products, including PX and PTA [9]. - The average price of PX is 831.9 USD/ton, with a decrease in the price spread compared to crude oil [9].
电池行业:技术突破加速,盈利拐点显现
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-21 07:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the battery industry [1] Core Insights - The battery industry is experiencing accelerated technological breakthroughs, with profitability turning a corner [1] - Solid-state batteries are entering a critical mid-test phase, with significant advancements in the supply chain and technology [3][8] - The demand for energy storage batteries is exceeding expectations, with a notable improvement in profitability [28] Summary by Sections 1. Battery Industry Hotspot Value Analysis - **Solid-State Batteries**: The technology is converging towards sulfide as the main route, with new materials and technologies being rapidly developed. Solid-state batteries significantly enhance safety and energy density, with theoretical values exceeding 500 Wh/kg [8][9] - **Energy Storage Batteries**: Demand is being driven by domestic capacity price compensation and high growth in Europe and emerging markets. Global energy storage battery demand is expected to increase by 60% year-on-year in 2025, with a revised forecast of 500-550 GWh [28][29] 2. Battery ETF (159755): The Largest Battery-Themed ETF - The ETF closely tracks the core leaders in the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, showcasing significant long-term investment value due to the high growth potential of these industries [3][28] - As of September 16, 2025, the ETF's scale reached 10.8 billion yuan, with a daily trading volume significantly higher than the industry average [3][28] 3. Solid-State Battery Development - The industry anticipates that small-scale production of solid-state batteries will begin in 2027, with large-scale production expected to exceed 100 GWh by 2030 [25][27] - Major manufacturers like CATL and BYD are making significant progress, with 60Ah automotive-grade cells already offline, achieving energy densities of 350-400 Wh/kg [19][21] 4. Energy Storage Battery Demand and Supply - The global energy storage market is projected to see a demand of 310 GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 47%. The supply side is expected to maintain a high capacity utilization rate of 86% [35][36] - The price of energy storage batteries is showing signs of recovery, with a bottom-up trend observed in pricing, leading to improved profitability for leading companies [37][38]
转债建议在中低价寻找科技扩散方向
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-21 06:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut was confirmed this week, with the yield curve steepening rapidly. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The long - end is expected to fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short - end is likely to decline and hard to rise. Gold is still favored [2][40]. - In the equity market, AI computing power showed a tendency to spread to other technology sectors. The market is still considered a "slow bull" and short - term is more structural. In the convertible bond market, high valuations are a psychological obstacle. It is recommended to invest in the mid - low - price range for technology diffusion, more left - side cycle directions, or alpha - focused gaming points [2][41]. - The top ten high - rating, mid - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Energy - saving Convertible Bond, Jiayue Convertible Bond, Energy - chemical Convertible Bond, Qingnong Convertible Bond, and Jiangong Convertible Bond [2][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1 Equity Market: Overall Decline with Most Industries Falling - This week (September 15 - 19), the equity market was significantly differentiated and overall declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.34%, and the CSI 300 fell 0.44%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 196.154 billion yuan to 2.494834 trillion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 8.53% [7][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 12 industries rose, with 5 industries rising more than 2%. Coal, power equipment, electronics, automobiles, and machinery had the highest increases [14]. 1.2 Convertible Bond Market: Overall Decline with Most Industries Falling - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.55%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 3 industries rose, with 1 industry rising more than 2%. Communication, national defense and military industry, and automobiles had the highest increases [15]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 9.0635 billion yuan, a significant increase of 364.4 million yuan, a week - on - week change of 4.19%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Jingxing Convertible Bond, Jing 23 Convertible Bond, etc. [15]. - About 18.29% of individual convertible bonds rose, with 6.48% rising between 0 - 1% and 9.26% rising more than 2% [15]. - The overall market conversion premium rate increased. The average daily conversion premium rate this week was 37.17%, up 1.07 pcts from last week. There were different changes in different price and parity intervals [23]. 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - This week, the weighted average and median weekly returns of convertible bonds and underlying stocks were negative, and the convertible bonds had a larger weekly decline. The trading volume of both markets increased significantly, with the convertible bond trading volume having a larger increase but a lower percentile level [37]. - About 18.88% of convertible bonds rose, and about 31.65% of underlying stocks rose. About 43.85% of convertible bonds had a higher return than the underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [37]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut was confirmed. The long - end has high volatility and strong gaming attributes, while the short - end has relatively strong supply and demand. The long - end is expected to fluctuate between 4 - 4.5%, and the short - end is likely to decline and hard to rise. Gold is still favored [2][40]. - In the equity market, AI computing power showed a tendency to spread to other technology sectors. The market is still considered a "slow bull" and short - term is more structural. In the convertible bond market, high valuations are a psychological obstacle. It is recommended to invest in the mid - low - price range for technology diffusion, more left - side cycle directions, or alpha - focused gaming points [2][41]. - The top ten high - rating, mid - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hope Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Energy - saving Convertible Bond, Jiayue Convertible Bond, Energy - chemical Convertible Bond, Qingnong Convertible Bond, and Jiangong Convertible Bond [2][41].
基础化工周报:尿素价格回调-20250921
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-21 05:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the weekly price and profit data of various chemical products, including polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical sectors, along with the performance of related listed companies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Foundation Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance** - **Stock Price Fluctuations**: From September 19, 2025, the Foundation Chemical Index dropped by 1.3% in the past week, rose by 2.7% in the past month, 17.4% in the past three months, 50.5% in the past year, and 23.4% since the beginning of 2025. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical fell 3.7% in the past week, Baofeng Energy dropped 3.8%, Satellite Chemical declined 4.1%, Huaxin Chemical rose 0.2%, and New Hope Liuhe fell 3.7% [8]. - **Profit Tracking**: As of September 19, 2025, the total market value of Wanhua Chemical was 204.5 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13 billion yuan in 2024, expected to be 13.5 billion yuan in 2025, 16.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 19 billion yuan in 2027. Similar data is provided for other companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,600 yuan/ton, 15,071 yuan/ton, and 13,694 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 179 yuan/ton, + 143 yuan/ton, and + 109 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 4,312 yuan/ton, 2,784 yuan/ton, and 2,558 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 221 yuan/ton, + 101 yuan/ton, and - 157 yuan/ton [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - **Raw Material Prices**: The average weekly prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,348 yuan/ton, 4,273 yuan/ton, 503 yuan/ton, and 4,293 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 46 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton, and 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average price of polyethylene was 7,704 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1,093 yuan/ton, 1,844 yuan/ton, and - 143 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 29 yuan/ton, 22 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 6,800 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were - 335 yuan/ton, 1,442 yuan/ton, and - 369 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 5 yuan/ton, 21 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,108 yuan/ton, 1,683 yuan/ton, 3,875 yuan/ton, and 2,344 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 21 yuan/ton, - 24 yuan/ton, - 107 yuan/ton, and + 56 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross profits were 152 yuan/ton, - 4 yuan/ton, - 316 yuan/ton, and 80 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of - 27 yuan/ton, - 16 yuan/ton, - 122 yuan/ton, and + 56 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2. Foundation Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Foundation Chemical Index Trend** No specific content about the index trend is provided, only the topic is mentioned [12]. - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector** The report shows the price trends of pure benzene, pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI, as well as the price and profit data of polymer MDI, TDI, and pure MDI [17][18]. - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector** It presents the price trends of MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic steam coal, and naphtha, along with the profitability of different production processes such as ethane cracking to produce polyethylene, PDH to produce polypropylene, etc. [25][26]. - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Sector** The report shows the price trends and profitability of domestic coking coal, coke, synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, acetic acid, and other products [42][46].
策略周评20250921:四季度胜负手,可能是哪些方向?
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-21 03:30
Core Insights - The report suggests that the key market drivers in the fourth quarter may shift towards cyclical sectors and low-positioned technology branches, as historical trends indicate a structural change in market dynamics during this period [1][2][4]. Market Trends - The report highlights that the main risk-reward ratio for leading sectors has decreased, necessitating a shift in investment focus. The concentration of capital in AI upstream hardware has led to a few stocks disproportionately influencing the market [2][3]. - Historical data from 2010 to 2024 shows that sectors with the highest gains in the first three quarters tend to underperform in the fourth quarter, with financial and stable sectors having a higher probability of outperforming the market [2][3]. Institutional Behavior - In the fourth quarter, institutions are likely to prioritize locking in profits from previously successful investments rather than seeking further excess returns. This behavior is driven by the need to mitigate ranking volatility risks, leading to a potential sell-off in previously high-performing sectors [3][4]. Cyclical Sector Opportunities - The report identifies that if optimistic economic expectations materialize, the fourth quarter will present a favorable window for cyclical investments. Historical examples from 2015 to 2022 demonstrate that consumer sectors often yield excess returns during this period [4][5]. Technology Sector Dynamics - Within the technology sector, the report anticipates a "high cut low" strategy, where investments will shift from high-performing upstream hardware to relatively underperforming segments within the AI industry chain [8][11]. - Specific areas of interest include midstream storage and AIDC-related facilities, which are expected to benefit from increasing demand driven by AI applications and capital expenditures from domestic cloud providers [9][10]. Application Sector Potential - The report emphasizes that while downstream AI applications have lagged, their potential for growth remains significant. The emergence of breakthrough products and business models could catalyze a shift in investor sentiment towards these applications [10][11]. - Notable segments to watch include AI in pharmaceuticals, humanoid robots, smart driving, and AI applications, which are positioned for potential growth as market narratives evolve [10][11].
固收点评20250920:绿色债券周度数据跟踪(20250915-20250919)-20250920
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-20 11:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report conducts a weekly data tracking of green bonds from September 15 to September 19, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and the valuation deviation of the top 30 individual bonds [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance - **Number and Scale**: 34 new green bonds were issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of about 3.1388 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1336 billion yuan compared to last week [1]. - **Issuance Term**: Most issuance terms are 3 years [1]. - **Issuer Nature**: Issuers include local state - owned enterprises, large - scale private enterprises, and central enterprise subsidiaries [1]. - **Subject Rating**: Most subject ratings are AAA and AA+ [1]. - **Issuer Region**: Issuers are from Beijing, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, Guizhou, Hainan, Hebei, Jiangxi, Shandong, Shanghai, Sichuan, Tianjin, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and Zhejiang [1]. - **Bond Types**: Bond types include general corporate bonds, commercial bank ordinary bonds, enterprise ABS, medium - term notes, private placement corporate bonds, and ultra - short - term financing bills [1]. 3.2 Secondary Market Trading - **Total Turnover**: The weekly turnover of green bonds totaled 6.04 billion yuan, an increase of 0.95 billion yuan compared to last week [2]. - **By Bond Type**: The top three in trading volume are non - financial corporate credit bonds, financial institution bonds, and interest - rate bonds, with trading volumes of 2.64 billion yuan, 2.56 billion yuan, and 0.74 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **By Issuance Term**: Green bonds with a term of less than 3 years had the highest trading volume, accounting for about 83.10%, indicating continuous market popularity [2]. - **By Issuer Industry**: The top three industries in trading volume are finance, public utilities, and transportation equipment, with trading volumes of 2.45 billion yuan, 1.14 billion yuan, and 0.18 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **By Issuer Region**: The top three regions in trading volume are Beijing, Guangdong, and Hubei, with trading volumes of 1.53 billion yuan, 0.74 billion yuan, and 0.44 billion yuan respectively [2]. 3.3 Valuation Deviation of the Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Overall Situation**: The overall deviation of the weekly average trading price valuation of green bonds is not large. The discount trading amplitude is smaller than the premium trading, and the discount trading proportion is less than the premium trading [3]. - **Discount Bonds**: The top three discount bonds are 25 Shui Neng G1 (- 0.7382%), 24 Nan Hu Green Bond 01 (- 0.4538%), and GC San Xia K3 (- 0.3254%). The issuer industries are mainly finance, public utilities, and building materials, and the regions are mainly Beijing, Fujian, and Jiangsu [3]. - **Premium Bonds**: The top four premium bonds are 25 Shui Neng G3 (0.9662%), 24 Kang Fu Lease MTN004 (Carbon - neutral Bond) (0.5175%), 22 Guangdong Bond 07 (0.4758%), and 25 Fuzhou Metro GN003 (Carbon - neutral Bond) (0.4274%). The issuer industries are mainly finance, public utilities, and transportation, and the regions are mainly Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin [3].
固收点评20250920:二级资本债周度数据跟踪(20250915-20250919)-20250920
Soochow Securities· 2025-09-20 08:18
Report Overview - This is a weekly data tracking report on secondary capital bonds from September 15 to September 19, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and valuation deviation of individual bonds [1]. 1. Primary Market Issuance - Two secondary capital bonds were newly issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets this week, with a total issuance scale of CNY 60 billion. The issuers are central financial enterprises in Beijing, with a credit rating of AAA. The issuance terms are 10 - year and 15 - year [1]. - The issuer is Agricultural Bank of China Limited, issuing two bonds: "25 Agricultural Bank Secondary Capital Bond 03B(BC)" with an issuance amount of CNY 25 billion and a term of 15 years, and "25 Agricultural Bank Secondary Capital Bond 03A(BC)" with an issuance amount of CNY 35 billion and a term of 10 years [7]. 2. Secondary Market Trading 2.1 Trading Volume - The total trading volume of secondary capital bonds this week was approximately CNY 177.8 billion, an increase of CNY 16.3 billion compared to last week. The top three bonds in terms of trading volume were "25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 02BC" (CNY 7.509 billion), "25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC" (CNY 6.623 billion), and "25 China Construction Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01BC" (CNY 5.416 billion) [2]. - By issuer's regional location, the top three regions in terms of trading volume were Beijing (CNY 131.5 billion), Shanghai (CNY 15.3 billion), and Guangdong (CNY 7 billion) [2]. 2.2 Yield to Maturity - As of September 19, for 5 - year secondary capital bonds, the yield - to - maturity changes of AAA -, AA +, and AA - rated bonds compared to last week were - 1.51BP, - 1.01BP, and 1.99BP respectively; for 7 - year bonds, the changes were 1.63BP for all of AAA -, AA +, and AA - rated bonds; for 10 - year bonds, the changes were 3.53BP, 4.06BP, and 4.06BP respectively [2]. 3. Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds 3.1 Discounted Bonds - This week, the overall valuation deviation of the weekly average trading price of secondary capital bonds was not significant. The proportion of discounted transactions was less than that of premium transactions, but the discount amplitude was greater than the premium amplitude. - The top three bonds with the highest discount rates were "23 Huaibei Rural Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01" (- 0.8469%), "23 Feixi Rural Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01" (- 0.8123%), and "22 Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank Secondary 01" (- 0.7313%). The remaining discount rates were within - 0.50%. The implied ratings of ChinaBond were mainly AAA -, AA, and AA +, and the bonds were mostly from Beijing, Guangdong, and Sichuan [3]. 3.2 Premium Bonds - The top four bonds with the highest premium rates were "23 Chouzhou Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01" (0.8295%), "21 Xingtai Bank Secondary 01" (0.7102%), "24 Fudian Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01" (0.6358%), and "24 Bank of Communications Secondary Capital Bond 02B" (0.3861%). The remaining premium rates were within 0.37%. The implied ratings of ChinaBond were mainly AAA -, AA +, and AA -, and the bonds were mostly from Beijing, Shanghai, and Yunnan [3].