证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 广东 136 号文正式发布，藏粤直流特高压开 工 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary ] ◼ 投资建议：迎峰度夏关注水电、火电投资机会。1 ）火电： 迎峰度夏建 议关注区域火电投资机会 。 建议关注【建投能源】【华电国际】【华能 国际】【国电电力】【申能股份】【皖能电力】。2 ）水电：量价齐升、 低成本受益市场化。 度电成本所有电源中最低，省内水电市场电价持续 提升，外输可享当地电价。现金流优异分红能力强，折旧期满盈利持续 释放。重点推荐【长江电力】。3 ）核电：成长确定、远期盈利 & 分红提 升。 22/23 年连续两年核准 10 台，24 年再获 11 台核准，成长再提速。 在建机组投运+资本开支逐步见顶。公司 ROE 看齐成熟项目有望翻倍， 分红同步提升。重点推荐【中国核电】【中国广核】，建议关注【中广 核电力 H】。4 ）绿电：化债推进财政发力，绿电国补欠款历史问题有 望得到解决。资产质量见底回升，绿电成长性再次彰显。 重点推荐【龙 净环保】，建议关注【龙源电力 H】【中闽能源】【三峡能源】。5 ）消 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250922 美国降息落地，后续看什么？——港股&海 外周观察 首先，美联储降息靴子落地。美联储主要考虑就业下行风险，以及通胀 上行风险降低的背景下，利率从限制性转向中性，如期降息 25bp。经济 预测（Summary of Economic Projections）点阵图对 2025 年的降息预期， 中值以 10-9 的微弱优势显示从 2 次增至 3 次，今年还剩余 2 次。但是 随后在 2026 年和 2027 年各降息一次，分歧较为明显，显示最终利率降 至 3.125%(此前为 3.375%)。 其次，宏观经济初现复苏状态。一方面，美国 9 月费城联储制造业指数 大幅反弹达 23.2，远高于预期的 2.3 和前值-0.3，创下今年 1 月以来的新 高。结构上看，新订单及出货指数显著上行，表明制造业活动增加的强 劲势头；另一方面，美国当周（9 月 13 日）首次申请失业救济人数为 23.1 万人，较前周下降 3.2 万人，主要是德克萨斯州异常数据的正常化。考虑 到德克萨斯州季节性就业变动，这种导致的异常数据波动往往是暂时的。 因此目前来看，首次申请失业救济人 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for future price appreciation [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading provider of financial IT solutions in China, focusing on banking and related sectors, with a stable upward trend in its fundamentals [7][12]. - The collaboration with Ant Group is expected to enhance the company's AI capabilities and expand its market reach in the banking sector [29][30]. - Revenue growth is projected to accelerate significantly, with expected increases of 23.4% in 2025, 125.1% in 2026, and 25.3% in 2027, driven by AI applications and a focus on software business [34]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a comprehensive solution provider for financial information technology, serving a diverse client base in banking, insurance, and securities [12]. - It has a strong market position in credit and risk management solutions, with a focus on AI and partnerships with leading data firms like Ant Group [7][12]. 2. Market Opportunities - The report highlights a significant gap in the housing loan market, with an estimated shortfall of 3 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, which is expected to grow to 6 trillion yuan by 2026 [19][20]. - The company aims to leverage its capabilities to provide detailed customer profiles and meet the credit needs of underserved populations [25]. 3. AI and Innovation - The company is actively developing its AI Agent business, focusing on applications in financial marketing, credit assessment, and risk management [29][30]. - It has initiated collaborations with Ant Group to enhance its AI solutions and improve service delivery to banking clients [30]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate a recovery with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -9.7% from 2022 to 2024, followed by a positive growth trajectory starting in 2025 [13]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is expected to reach 52.31 million yuan, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years [1][34]. 5. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 215, 32, and 23, respectively, reflecting strong profit growth potential [34]. - A target price of 51.5 yuan per share is set for 2026 based on a price-to-sales (P/S) valuation method [34].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the simultaneous advancement of policies and corporate innovation in the AI sector, highlighting the establishment of the China-ASEAN AI Application Cooperation Center to foster regional collaborative innovation and promote AI applications across various industries [2][4] - Major tech companies are enhancing AI efficiency through significant technological advancements, such as Huawei's detailed roadmap for its Ascend chips and Alibaba's open-source DeepResearch model, which significantly lowers the barriers for AI development and deployment [3][5] - The report suggests that while upstream hardware investments may have limited risk-reward potential, there are promising opportunities in relatively underperforming segments of the AI industry, particularly in storage and AI applications in healthcare, robotics, and smart driving [5] Group 2: Key Events - The China-ASEAN AI Ministerial Roundtable announced the launch of an AI Application Cooperation Center, focusing on collaborative efforts in computing power, open-source communities, and talent exchange [4] - Huawei unveiled its Ascend chip roadmap, including the launch of the Ascend 950PR and 950DT chips, and introduced the Atlas SuperPoD infrastructure to enhance AI training and inference capabilities [4] - Alibaba's DeepResearch model, which is open-source and comparable to leading proprietary models, has achieved significant performance improvements, making high-performance AI research more accessible [4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Hikvision, which is expanding its smart IoT ecosystem, and Dingzhi Technology, which is enhancing its capabilities through strategic acquisitions [6][12] - It highlights the potential of AI applications in various sectors, including healthcare and robotics, suggesting that these areas may see significant growth with the right technological breakthroughs [5]

Macro Strategy - The September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25bps rate cut, with guidance indicating two more cuts within the year and an additional cut next year, which is more hawkish than market expectations [1][17] - Powell's statements on employment and inflation were consistent with the August Jackson Hole meeting, lacking significant dovish information, leading to volatile movements in major asset classes [1][17] - The focus is shifting towards the independence of the Federal Reserve, with potential political pressures influencing future rate cuts and increasing dollar credit risks [1][17] Fixed Income - The convertible bond market experienced fluctuations, with high-priced bonds outperforming mid and low-priced ones, indicating a highly structured opportunity landscape driven by the current equity market [2][19] - The China convertible bond index has risen over 30% since its low in August 2024, with a corresponding increase in the premium rate of about 8-12 percentage points [2][19] - The issuance of green bonds totaled approximately 20.052 billion yuan this week, a significant increase from the previous week, indicating strong market interest [4][23] Industry Insights - In the semiconductor equipment sector, domestic equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit significantly from the development of domestic computing power chips [12] - The oil service equipment industry is poised to gain from Saudi Aramco's plan to initiate 85 major projects over the next three years, with specific recommendations for companies like Jereh and Neway [13] - The precision manufacturing sector, particularly in 3C electronics, is highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Fuliwang expected to see significant profit increases from 2025 to 2027 [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Views - The demand for energy storage and lithium batteries is robust, with advancements in humanoid and solid-state technologies accelerating [1] - The report highlights a significant growth trajectory in the electric vehicle sector, with domestic sales expected to increase by 25% to 16 million units in 2025 [3][26] - The energy storage market is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30-50% from 2025 to 2028, driven by demand in Europe, the Middle East, and the U.S. [3][7] Industry Trends - **Energy Storage**: The U.S. energy storage market saw a cumulative installation of 5.5 GW in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27% [7] - **Electric Vehicles**: In August 2025, domestic electric vehicle sales reached 1.4 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27% [26] - **Humanoid Robots**: The humanoid robot market is expected to reach over 100 million units, with a market potential exceeding 15 trillion yuan [11] Company Insights - **Ningde Times**: Recognized as a global leader in power and energy storage batteries, with a low valuation despite strong growth prospects [6] - **Sunpower**: A leading inverter manufacturer with significant overseas market integration [6] - **BYD**: Continues to see strong sales growth in electric vehicles, with a focus on structural upgrades [6] Investment Strategy - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the lithium battery sector, such as Ningde Times, Yihua Lithium Energy, and Xinwangda, as well as companies involved in humanoid robotics and energy storage solutions [3][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, with a focus on the growth potential of passenger vehicles and related components [1]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a notable increase in demand, with passenger car insurance registrations reaching 450,000 units in the second week of September, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 24.9% and a month-on-month increase of 4.9% [2][47]. - Key developments include the successful launches of several new models, such as the Ideal i6, which is set to officially launch on September 26, and the Galaxy M9, which has already received over 23,000 pre-orders [2][3]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: AI smart vehicles, AI robotics, and sectors benefiting from favorable market conditions, such as buses and heavy trucks [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector ranked third in A-shares and second in Hong Kong stocks for the week, indicating strong market performance [7]. - The automotive components sector showed the best performance within the automotive industry, with a notable increase in stocks like Yanfeng Automotive and Xinquan [15][24]. Sales and Demand Forecast - The report forecasts a total retail sales volume of 23.7 million units for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [48]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 56.6% by 2025, with sales projected to be 1.34 million units [49]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights key investment opportunities in the automotive sector, particularly in the AI smart vehicle supply chain, including companies like Tesla, Xiaopeng Motors, and Horizon Robotics [3]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of component suppliers, such as Desay SV and Junsheng Electronics, in the growth of the automotive sector [3]. Policy and Market Trends - The report notes that government policies, such as the expansion of vehicle scrappage subsidies, are expected to support domestic demand in 2025 [48][56]. - The report anticipates a continued recovery in the bus market, with domestic sales expected to grow by 15% in 2025 [56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor equipment industry, particularly driven by the rapid development of AI chips and the resulting demand for advanced testing and packaging equipment. Core Insights - The rapid development of AI chips is creating new demands for packaging and testing equipment, particularly for SoC and advanced storage chips, which are becoming increasingly complex and require high-performance testing machines [2][4]. - The semiconductor testing equipment market is projected to exceed $13.8 billion by 2025, with SoC and storage testing machines expected to account for approximately $4.8 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively [2][57]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic testing machine manufacturers, particularly in the context of rising AI testing requirements and the anticipated growth in the semiconductor testing equipment market [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Chip Development and Equipment Demand - The growth of AI chips is driving new requirements for testing and packaging equipment, particularly for SoC and advanced storage chips, which are becoming more complex [2][4]. - The demand for high-performance testing machines is significantly increasing due to the complexity of AI chips and advanced storage chips [2][9]. 2. Post-Process Testing - The report highlights the increasing requirements for AI testing and the focus on domestic testing machine leaders, predicting a market space for semiconductor testing equipment to exceed $13.8 billion by 2025 [2][57]. - The core barriers in testing machines are identified as the testing boards and chips, with a significant market share held by companies like Advantest and Teradyne [2][9]. 3. Post-Process Packaging - The report notes the rapid development of advanced packaging technologies, such as HBM and CoWoS, which are driving the demand for advanced packaging equipment [2][41]. - The distinction between traditional and advanced packaging processes is highlighted, with advanced packaging requiring additional graphic processing equipment [2][41]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on domestic opportunities arising from AI chip development, particularly in testing and packaging equipment sectors [2][9]. - Specific companies mentioned for potential investment include Huafeng Measurement and Control, Changchuan Technology, and others involved in advanced packaging and testing equipment [2][9]. 5. Market Trends - The report indicates that the global SoC chip market is expected to reach $274.1 billion by 2030, driven by the increasing integration of AI applications in various devices [2][25]. - The demand for advanced storage solutions is also expected to rise, with AI servers requiring significantly higher DRAM capacities compared to traditional servers [2][20].

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.91%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index is at 50.04%, down 0.03 percentage points from August, and the demand index is at 49.91%, up 0.02 percentage points from August[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.93%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.68%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 14.5% year-on-year, improving from 6.8% in the first half of the month[7] - The retail sales of passenger cars in September showed a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, indicating a gradual emergence of base effect in consumer spending[24] Export and Industrial Production - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports recorded a year-on-year growth of approximately 7.8%, improving from 4.6% in August, suggesting strong export resilience[7] - The industrial production index shows a slight recovery, with the national blast furnace operating rate at 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week[16] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.73%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[12] - The central bank is expected to restart the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to stabilize liquidity around the quarter-end, with a net monetary injection of 562.3 billion yuan this week[51] Risks and Policy Measures - Risks include uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[58] - Recent policies aimed at expanding service consumption were announced, which may help alleviate pressures on commodity consumption and prices[57]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250921 周观：央行重启买入国债将如何影响债市? （2025 年第 37 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 央行重启买入国债预期再度发酵，如何看待其可能性及对债市影响？本 周（2025.9.15-2025.9.19），10年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的1.7895% 上行 0.55bp 至 1.795%。周度复盘：周一（9.15），2025 年 8 月经济数据 公布，1-8 月固定资产投资累计同比 0.5%，前值 1.6%；8 月社会消费品 零售总额当月同比 3.4%，前值 3.7%；8 月规模以上工业增加值当月同 比 5.2%，前值 5.7%。受偏弱数据的推动，利率略有下行。午后，两则 消息打压债市情绪。一是《求是》发表习近平总书记重要文章《纵深推 进全国统一大市场建设》，文章中强调着力整治企业低价无序竞争乱象， 二是国新办将于周三下午举行发布会，介绍扩大服务消费有关政策措 施。这两则消息引发政策加码的预期，利率转而大幅上行，全天 10 年 期国债活跃券收益率上行 1.05bp。周二（9.16），早盘受夜盘双焦 ...