业 研 究 2025 年 09 月 10 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 银行 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《测算：高息定存到期规模、节奏与 成 本 改 善 空 间 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.8.21 《"过度减点"贷款减少，定价暂难突 破成本线—2025Q2 央行货币政策执 行报告学习》-2025.8.17 《2025Q2 银行经营：盈利修复、息差 平稳、风险改善 —行业点评报告》 -2025.8.17 理财规模有望受益，投资基金偏好或生变 ——基金销售费新规征求意见稿点评 | 刘呈祥（分析师） | 吴文鑫（分析师） | | --- | --- | | liuchengxiang@kysec.cn | wuwenxin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523060002 | 证书编号：S0790524060002 | 居民仍偏好高流动性产品，理财性价比凸显，规模有望加速上升。2025 年 1-5 月理 财增长最多的产品为"最小持有期"型（比如最短持有 7 天/ ...

商贸零售/互联网电商 赛维时代（301381.SZ） 公司发布股权激励计划，关注后续经营趋势改善 2025 年 09 月 10 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/9/9 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 24.58 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 32.80/16.49 | | 总市值(亿元) | 99.17 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 48.01 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.03 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.95 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 198.41 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 赛维时代 沪深300 相关研究报告 《库存因素短期拖累利润，服饰品类 增长维持靓丽—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.4.29 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 吕明（分析师） | 姚慕宇（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | lvming@kysec.cn | yaomuyu@kysec.cn | | 证书编号 ...

行业走势图 房地产 房地产 2025 年 09 月 10 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 72% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《深圳政策调整点评：八个行政区限 购大幅放松，有望对金九银十形成支 撑—行业点评报告》-2025.9.8 《新房成交面积同环比下降，深圳购 房政策放松—行业周报》-2025.9.7 《新房成交面积环比增加，上海购房 政策放松—行业周报》-2025.8.31 2025 上半年房地产行业综述：行业仍处于缩表进程， 关注重点房企边际改善 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 板块总体仍处于缩表进程，重点房企表现显著好于行业水平 20 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - Non-US demand may still be anchored to US demand, indicating resilience in exports despite rising tariffs [4][5][6] - In August 2025, China's exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.3%, showing a decline from previous values [4] - The contribution to exports in August was primarily from the EU and ASEAN, which contributed 1.6 and 3.4 percentage points respectively [6] Group 2: Small and Medium Enterprises - The "Key Small Giants" initiative aims to support high-quality tech SMEs, with 4,264 companies recognized as of June 2025 [9][10] - Over 137 "Key Small Giants" have gone public, raising over 120 billion yuan, with a focus on strategic emerging industries [11] - These companies exhibit higher innovation and growth rates, with R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue at 8.93%, surpassing the average for listed companies [11] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The peak production capacity for phenol and acetone has passed, with future capacity growth expected to slow down [14] - By the end of 2024, China's effective capacity for phenol is projected to be 6.57 million tons, with a CAGR of 19.83% from 2019 to 2024 [14] - The profitability of the bisphenol A (BPA) sector is under pressure, with a projected effective capacity of 5.93 million tons by the end of 2024 [16] Group 4: Home Appliance Sector - The company, XGIMI Technology, has launched a new employee stock ownership plan, reflecting confidence in long-term growth [20][21] - The performance targets for the stock ownership plan include sales volume, overseas revenue, and net profit margin, indicating a focus on profitability and market expansion [22] - The company aims to increase its overseas revenue targets for 2025 and 2026, demonstrating confidence in international market growth [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company has introduced a new employee stock ownership plan, reflecting confidence in long-term development and aims to enhance net profit margins and overseas market revenue [2][3] - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 289 million, 365 million, and 431 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.14, 5.21, and 6.16 yuan [2][3] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 31.3, 24.8, and 21.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for a leading consumer projection company [2][3] Summary by Sections Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The 2025 employee stock ownership plan allows for approximately 1.3989 million shares, representing 2.00% of the total share capital [3] - Performance assessment will focus on key product sales, overseas revenue, and net profit margin from 2025 to 2028, with specific targets set for each year [3][4] - The number of employees participating in the plan has increased from 259 to 337, enhancing employee engagement and alignment with company goals [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 3.906 billion yuan in 2025 to 5.366 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.7%, 19.3%, and 15.2% respectively [5] - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 7.4% in 2025 to 8.0% in 2027, reflecting a focus on profitability [5][10] - The company anticipates a steady increase in gross margin from 32.2% in 2025 to 34.1% in 2027 [10] Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about expanding its overseas revenue targets, with goals set at 10.8 billion yuan for 2025 and 11 billion yuan for 2026, up from previous estimates [4] - The company’s products are gaining traction in major overseas markets, including the United States and Japan, which is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [4]

基础化工 2025 年 09 月 09 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《纺服"金九银十"旺季到来，粘胶 短纤、氨纶等库存下跌—行业周报》 -2025.9.6 《粘胶：多元驱动需求增长，供需紧 平衡，涨势再起—行业深度报告》 -2025.9.5 《2025H1 化工板块增收减利，固定资 产投资完成额同比下降—行业点评报 告》-2025.9.3 酚酮产业链投产高峰已过，"反内卷"背景下利润向 上弹性空间较大 ——化工"反内卷"系列报告（十一） | 金益腾（分析师） | 龚道琳（分析师） | 李思佳（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | gongdaolin@kysec.cn | lisijia@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790522010001 | 证书编号：S0790525070006 | 苯酚丙酮: 未来产能增速有望放缓，近年来下游双酚 ...

Group 1 - The report categorizes companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange into five major directions and a total of 21 industrial chains, including high-end equipment, consumer services, information technology, chemicals, and biomedicine [1][12][15] - The high-end equipment sector includes sub-industries such as new energy, robotics, and aerospace, focusing on strengthening and supplementing the supply chain [1][15] - The consumer services sector is involved in new consumption hotspots like sports nutrition, konjac, and artificial diamonds [1][15] Group 2 - The new energy and storage sector is a key branch within the high-end equipment industrial chain, with leading positions in the number of companies, market capitalization, and sub-industries [2][15] - The report identifies seven sub-industries within new energy and storage, including power equipment, nuclear power, photovoltaics, wind power, lithium batteries, solid-state batteries, and hydrogen energy [2][15] - The semiconductor industry on the Beijing Stock Exchange has a total market capitalization of 79.33 billion, divided into six segments [2][11] Group 3 - The report highlights core companies within the new quality productivity industrial chain, such as Lintai New Materials, which provides wet paper-based friction plates for domestic passenger vehicles [3][9] - Other notable companies include Kaiter Co., which supplies automotive sensors and components to BYD, and Litong Technology, which specializes in high-pressure hoses for hydrogen refueling [3][9] - The biopharmaceutical sector includes companies like Deyuan Pharmaceutical, which focuses on drugs for endocrine and cardiovascular diseases, reporting a net profit of 97.79 million with a year-on-year growth of 21.94% [3][9] Group 4 - The lithium battery and energy storage industrial chain is significant, with 21 companies and a total market capitalization of 114.68 billion [30][31] - The solid-state battery sector is emerging, with 10 companies and a total market capitalization of 80.63 billion [34] - The deep-sea technology sector includes nine companies with a total market capitalization of 30.13 billion, focusing on products like hydraulic cylinders for offshore drilling platforms [35][36]

Core Insights - Institutional attention has rebounded, particularly in the basic chemicals, agriculture, and home appliances sectors, indicating a renewed interest from investors [6][7][8] - The communication sector is expected to see accelerated development in Optical Circuit Switching (OCS) technology, presenting new opportunities in optical communication and liquid cooling [13][15][16] - The mechanical sector is preparing for a significant market surge in Q4, driven by advancements in humanoid robotics and Tesla's upcoming Gen3 model [18][19][20] - The pharmaceutical sector is currently under pressure, with traditional Chinese medicine facing challenges but expected to recover in the long term [24][25][28] - The real estate sector in Shenzhen is experiencing significant policy adjustments, with relaxed purchase restrictions likely to support market activity in the upcoming months [30][31][32][33] - The retail sector is witnessing a focus on high-quality jewelry brands, with companies like Zhou Li Fu gaining attention as they enter the Hong Kong Stock Connect [36][42][43] - The media sector is seeing improvements in domestic AI model performance, which is expected to enhance content creation and commercial opportunities [45][46] Institutional Research Tracking - The total number of institutional research engagements has slightly decreased week-over-week but remains lower than the same period in 2024, with high attention on mechanical equipment, electronics, and power equipment [7][8] - Monthly data indicates a slight recovery in institutional research engagements, particularly in electronics and pharmaceutical sectors, although still below 2024 levels [8][9] Company-Specific Insights - Lian De Equipment has been frequently researched due to its strong position in semiconductor display equipment, with nine institutional engagements last week [10][11] - Wei Sheng Information is also gaining attention, particularly in the energy IoT sector, with three recent institutional engagements [11] Sector-Specific Developments - The communication sector is focusing on OCS technology, which offers significant advantages over traditional optical-electrical-optical (OEO) switches, including reduced latency and power consumption [15][16] - The mechanical sector anticipates a major uptick in orders for humanoid robots, particularly with Tesla's Gen3 model nearing completion [18][19] - The pharmaceutical sector is facing challenges due to weak OTC demand and the impact of prescription drug procurement policies, but some companies are expected to recover as market conditions improve [24][25][28] - The real estate market in Shenzhen is expected to stabilize due to recent policy changes, with predictions of increased transaction volumes in the coming months [30][31][33] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the communication sector include Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication, while beneficiaries in the mechanical sector include Zhehai Deman and Leidi Ke [16][22] - In the pharmaceutical sector, companies like Fangsheng Pharmaceutical and Zhaoli Pharmaceutical are highlighted for their potential recovery [24][25] - In the real estate sector, companies such as Greentown China and China Overseas Development are recommended for their strong credit profiles and ability to meet improving customer demand [33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for NIO-SW (09866.HK) is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The sales momentum for the second half of 2025 is expected to reverse, with a need to track the sustainability of sales and cost control progress. The revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been raised from 876/934 billion to 888/1180 billion, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1536 billion, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 35%/33%/30% [5][6] - The Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025-2026 have been adjusted from -158/-145 billion to -157/-89 billion, with a new forecast for 2027 at -54 billion. The current market capitalization corresponds to 1.1/0.8/0.7 times price-to-sales (PS) for 2025-2027 [5][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue (in million) for the years 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 55,618, 65,719, 88,776, 118,020, and 153,630 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.9%, 18.2%, 35.1%, 32.9%, and 30.2% [9] - Non-GAAP net profit (in million) for the same years are -18,475, -20,585, -15,670, -8,867, and -5,383, with year-on-year changes of -54.2%, -11.4%, 23.9%, -43.4%, and 0.0% [9] - Gross margin percentages are projected to be 5.5%, 9.9%, 10.7%, 12.0%, and 13.0% for the respective years [9] - The diluted EPS (in yuan) is forecasted to be -10.9, -10.0, -7.0, -3.9, and -2.3 for the years 2023A to 2027E [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for AI custom acceleration cards remains strong, with a new major client expected to generate an additional $1 billion in AI rack orders by Q3 2026 [5] - Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) technology is anticipated to provide new solutions for large-scale data center architectures, significantly reducing latency and power consumption compared to traditional electronic switches [6][7] - OCS technology is expected to create growth opportunities in optical communication, liquid cooling, and OCS switch manufacturing [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the ongoing strong demand for AI-related technologies and the introduction of new products like the Tomahawk 6 switch chip, which enhances network efficiency [5] Technological Developments - OCS technology offers advantages such as reduced latency and power consumption, and it allows seamless interconnection of next-generation devices without frequent upgrades [6] - The integration of OCS with high-speed optical modules and other components is expected to form a cost-effective and efficient large-scale optical switching system [6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and others that are positioned to benefit from advancements in OCS and related technologies [7]