行 业 研 究 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 电力 沪深300 相关研究报告 《BEST 研究计划首次发布，美国启动 创世纪计划—可控核聚变行业周报》 -2025.11.30 《电改加速深化，预期有望趋稳—电 力行业 2026 年度投资策略》 -2025.11.27 《TAE 缩短商业化时间表，东部超导 实现量产突破—可控核聚变行业周 报》-2025.11.23 九院中标 5 亿氚工厂项目，NIF 完成第十次点火 ——行业周报 | 周磊（分析师） | 黄懿轩（联系人） | | --- | --- | | zhoulei1@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524090002 | 证书编号：S0790125070014 | 板块回顾：全部细分环节上涨，个股涨多跌少 本周（20251201-20251205）可控核聚变板块下，个股涨多跌少。具体来看，涨 幅前五标的分别为宏微科技（+22.0%）、雪人集团（+ ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the global semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly, with revenues projected to increase by 22.5% to $772 billion in 2025 and further by 26.3% to $975 billion in 2026, driven by strong demand for AI applications and data center infrastructure [2][10][12] - The semiconductor materials market in China is projected to grow from 75.58 billion yuan in 2020 to 143.78 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.44%, reaching 174.08 billion yuan by 2025 [12][15][16] - The report identifies several companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange that are involved in semiconductor materials, including Geberit, Jiaxian Co., Tianma New Materials, and others, which are positioned in critical segments of domestic substitution with high technical barriers and market scarcity [2][17][19] Group 2 - The report notes that the chemical new materials sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange experienced a slight decline of 0.16% during the week, with specific sectors like metal new materials and professional technical services showing positive growth [3][25][29] - Individual stocks such as KQ Co. and XWL Co. showed significant weekly gains, with KQ Co. increasing by 9.35% and XWL Co. by 6.03% [3][32][33] - The report provides insights into the price trends of various chemical products, including MDI and TDI, indicating fluctuations in the market that could impact related companies [34][35]

北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 北交所做市公司家数增长，做市商"择优而市"向核心指数汇集 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 北交所做市公司数增至 143 家和北证 50 和北证专精特新指数重合度较高。 2025 年 10 月 24 日北交所、全国股转公司对证券公司 2025 Q1-3 的执业质量情况 进行了评价，合计有 21 家券商获得北交所做市得分。从有做市商的企业市值规 模和数量来看，整体队伍稳步"扩容"，截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，北交所合计有 143 家企业有做市商，较 2024 全年增长 21.19%，北交所有做市商的企业总市值 达 4993.45 亿元。从收益率来看，有做市商的企业的涨幅以及成交更活跃，2025 年至今北交所有做市商的企业收益率达 48.51%，高于没有做市商企业的 39.11%，。从行业角度来看，做市公司中高端制造行业数量有 64 家，占比 44.76%。 从市值角度来看，20-50 亿市值企业占比最大，占比为 48.25%。从企业画像来看， 有做 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in a challenging industry environment, with a projected net profit of CNY 12.28 billion, CNY 13.13 billion, and CNY 14.42 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of +0.3%, +6.9%, and +9.8% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be CNY 10.07, CNY 10.76, and CNY 11.82 for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.9, 18.6, and 17.0 times [4] - The company has a robust product structure and a healthy national distribution, which has allowed it to outperform the industry [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from Shanxi Fenjiu was CNY 32.17 billion, with a year-on-year increase of +5.5%, while other liquor categories saw a decline of -15.9% [5] - Provincial revenue was CNY 11.01 billion, down -7.5%, while out-of-province revenue reached CNY 21.81 billion, up +12.7% [5] - The company has actively optimized its distributor structure, canceling contracts with 33 distributors and penalizing over 400 for violations [6] Market Position - The company has maintained a competitive edge with its next-high-end Qinghua series, which has shown significant growth due to its unique flavor profile and high consumer loyalty [5] - Despite industry challenges, the profitability of distributors for Shanxi Fenjiu remains strong, supported by a diverse product mix and stable pricing [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Projected operating revenue for 2025 is CNY 37.865 billion, with a year-on-year growth of +5.1% [8] - The gross margin is expected to be 74.5%, and the net margin is projected at 32.4% for 2025 [8] - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline to 28.5% by 2025, reflecting a strategic focus on sustainable growth [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - Short-term price fluctuations do not alter long-term value; new products from Ximai are building a second growth curve [5] - The food and beverage index declined by 1.9%, ranking 26th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 3.2 percentage points [13][15] - Moutai's recent price decline is attributed to increased shipments in Q4 and promotional activities on e-commerce platforms, indicating a temporary supply-demand adjustment rather than a fundamental change in brand strength [5][13] - The white liquor sector is currently at a dual bottom in valuation and expectations, with opportunities for strategic positioning as industry reforms deepen [5][13] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a 1.9% decline, while sub-sectors like processed foods (+1.5%), beer (+1.2%), and soft drinks (+0.4%) showed relative strength [15][17] - Notable individual stock performances included Anji Food, Hai Xin Food, and Xi Wang Food showing gains, while Yantang Dairy, Ximai Food, and Richen Co. experienced declines [15][17] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with whole milk powder auction prices down 15.6% year-on-year, and fresh milk prices down 3.2% year-on-year [18][19] - Pork prices have also seen significant declines, with a year-on-year drop of 24.1% [22][23] Company Focus - Ximai Food's new health-oriented powder products have performed well in initial sales, with plans for nationwide expansion starting in 2026 [6][14] - The company is also launching weight control products aimed at improving gut health and stabilizing blood sugar levels, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the health sector [6][14] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bai Run Co. [7] - Guizhou Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process and focus on sustainable development despite short-term demand pressures [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned for medium-term growth with a focus on product structure upgrades and national expansion [7]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Views - Focus on the BOPET industry's anti-involution trend, with companies reducing their willingness to offer discounts and increasing prices. As of December 4, the mainstream price for BOPET in East China was 7100-7300 RMB/ton, with an average weekly price increase of 58.75 RMB/ton, a rise of 0.82% [5][21] - Global MDI prices are rising due to multiple domestic and international facilities undergoing maintenance or planned repairs. Notable price increases include 300 Euros/ton by Hungary's BorsodChem and 350 Euros/ton by Huntsman in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East [6][27][31] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.15% this week, with 206 out of 545 stocks in the sector rising [17] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) rose to 3882 points, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week [19] BOPET Industry Insights - BOPET companies are less willing to lower prices, leading to a tentative upward price trend. The average gross profit for BOPET films is estimated at -476.73 RMB/ton, indicating significant pressure on profit margins [22][21] - BOPET's operating rate was reported at 65.18%, with inventory levels at historical highs [23][28] MDI Market Developments - Multiple facilities are undergoing maintenance, contributing to a global price increase for MDI products. Companies like Wanhua Chemical have announced price hikes for their MDI products in Southeast Asia and South Asia [31][33] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and others in the chemical sector. Beneficiary stocks include companies like Dongyue Group and Xinjiang Tianye [8][47]

非银金融 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 非银金融 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《监管态度转向积极，看好券商板块 行情—吴清主席在中证协大会的致辞 学习》-2025.12.7 《大国崛起需建设金融强国，券商海 外业务迎发展良机—券商海外业务深 度研究》-2025.11.30 《公募 REITs 试点纳入商业不动产， 险企开门红向好 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.30 券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降风险因子释放资金 ——行业周报 lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 周观点：券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降风险因子释放资金 证监会主席吴清表态积极且超预期，保险投资端松绑政策符合预期。券商和保险 行业业务端景气延续，叠加政策端向好和全年相对滞涨，看好非银板块布局机会。 券商：监管表态积极，行业有望进入"政策宽松期"，杠杆上限提升助力 ROE 12 月 6 日证监会主席吴清在中证协第八次会员大会上致辞，表态积极，核心 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is experiencing significant growth, with a focus on high-end luxury vehicles and electric vehicles, indicating strong future performance potential [7] - The report highlights the rapid delivery milestones achieved by new energy vehicle brands, particularly Hongmeng Zhixing, which reached over one million deliveries in just 43 months [5][13] - The report emphasizes the increasing competition in the automotive market, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, and the need for companies to innovate and adapt to changing consumer demands [7][25] Industry News - Hongmeng Zhixing's "Five Realms and Ten Cars" has achieved over one million deliveries, setting a record for the fastest delivery by a new energy vehicle brand in China [5][13] - Zeekr has announced its entry into the South Korean market, signing agreements with four local dealers to establish a sales and service network [14] - The new Wuling Blue Mountain smart version has begun pre-orders, featuring advanced driving assistance technology [15] - Cao Cao Mobility has upgraded its Robotaxi strategy, planning to cover 100 cities over the next decade [16] - A new national standard for automotive steering systems has been released, supporting steer-by-wire technology and removing mandatory mechanical connections [17][18] Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week saw the CSI 300 index increase by 1.28%, with the automotive sector rising by 1.27%, ranking 10th among A-share industries [6][26] - The passenger vehicle index increased by 0.20%, with Xiaomi Group and SAIC Motor leading the gains [6][31] - The commercial vehicle index rose by 2.24%, with Yutong Bus and China National Heavy Duty Truck leading the sector [6][32] - The automotive parts index increased by 1.56%, with Fosa Technology and Aerospace Science and Industry leading the gains [6][33] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the report recommends investing in Jianghuai Automobile, Seres, and Xpeng Motors, with Geely Automobile identified as a beneficiary [7] - In the automotive parts sector, companies like Desay SV, Zhejiang Xiantong, and Meili Technology are recommended, with additional beneficiaries including Weichai Power and Baojun Technology [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The defense and military industry is experiencing a significant increase in military trade orders both domestically and internationally, which is expected to drive growth [3] - The military index has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 5.76% increase over the past two weeks compared to a 2.94% increase in the CSI 300, resulting in an excess return of 2.82 percentage points [5][14] - The current PE-TTM for the military industry is 69.33 times, which is at the 68.46% percentile since early 2015, indicating a relatively high valuation [24] Summary by Sections Market Review - The military index has risen by 5.76% from November 24 to December 5, ranking 6th among 31 industries [14] - The aerospace equipment sector has shown strong performance, increasing by 19.37% in the same period, while the naval equipment sector has declined by 1.67% [16] Industry News - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the escalation in Venezuela and increased military spending in Turkey and India, are influencing the defense industry [6] - The successful launch of the Shenzhou-22 spacecraft and the establishment of a national commercial aerospace development fund indicate a potential turning point for the commercial aerospace sector [7] Valuation - The military industry's current PE-TTM is 69.33, which has increased from 67.34 two weeks prior, suggesting a positive outlook as the "14th Five-Year Plan" becomes clearer [24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the continuous growth in AI demand, which is expected to enhance the demand for computing power [5][30] - The storage market is anticipated to experience price increases for at least 2-3 more quarters due to supply constraints [40][42] - Huawei's new product launches are expected to impact the supply chain positively, with significant market shares in the domestic smartphone market [43][44] Summary by Sections Internet - The rapid growth of the Qianwen app user base, with a monthly active user count reaching 18.34 million and a growth rate of 149.03% in November 2025 [18][19] - AI applications are primarily focused on programming and entertainment, with programming-related token consumption accounting for 50% [21][23] - The launch of the Doubao AI mobile assistant is expected to drive token usage further [29] Computing - The release of Google's Gemini 3 series is expected to extend the life of scaling laws and create a favorable ecological gain [30] - Data is identified as the core asset and barrier, with significant increases in training data for Gemini 3 compared to its predecessor [30] - Google's infrastructure allows researchers to focus on algorithms rather than technical issues, enhancing productivity [31][32] Storage - The supply of DRAM and NAND Flash is expected to be tight, with predictions of shortages in the first half of 2026 [40][41] - The price of storage contracts is projected to continue rising for at least 2-3 quarters, driven by limited new capacity [42] Electronics - Huawei's market share in the domestic smartphone market was 18.1% in Q2 2025 and 15.2% in Q3 2025, indicating strong performance [43][44] - The launch of new products, including the Mate 80 series and Mate X7, is expected to influence the supply chain positively [43] Tools - The report notes significant fluctuations in interest rate expectations, with a clear mid-term trend towards rate cuts [50][59] - The upcoming IPO of Zhongjian Technology is highlighted as a significant event in the capital market [60]