Industry Overview - The wide bandgap semiconductor industry, driven by Silicon Carbide (SiC) and Gallium Nitride (GaN), is entering a new phase of sustained growth, primarily fueled by the electrification of vehicles and the restructuring of power architecture in AI data centers [2][3] - The industry is transitioning from traditional 54V DC power supply to 800V High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) architecture, which is crucial for the next generation of high-power AI racks, relying heavily on the application of SiC and GaN [2][7] Market Growth - According to TrendForce, the global SiC power device market is expected to reach approximately $3.4 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12%, with automotive applications accounting for over 70% of this market [3] - The GaN device market is projected to grow by 43% year-on-year, reaching about $388 million, with continued expansion expected due to increasing penetration in automotive and renewable energy sectors, as well as emerging applications in AI data centers [3] Investment Opportunities - Companies with scale advantages, leading technology on 8-inch wafers, automotive-grade certified product lines, and system-level solution capabilities are expected to be the main beneficiaries of this trend [2] - In particular, InnoPhase (2577 HK) is highlighted as a leading player in the pure GaN sector, with an anticipated market share of around 30% in 2024 and a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 55.2% from 2024 to 2027, benefiting from industry tailwinds and strategic partnerships with global players like NVIDIA [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,761, down 1.28% for the day but up 28.42% year-to-date [1] - The US markets saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.86% and the S&P 500 up 0.30%, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.17% [1] - The Chinese stock market experienced declines, particularly in healthcare, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors, while materials and utilities outperformed [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The global economic outlook for 2026 suggests resilience due to inventory demand, AI trends, and fiscal expansion, despite challenges from tariffs [5] - The US GDP growth is projected to decrease from 1.9% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026, with a cooling job market and rising unemployment rates [6] - The Eurozone GDP growth is expected to decline from 1.4% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026, influenced by tightening financial conditions and slowing global trade [6] Group 3: Company Analysis - The report highlights that 巨子生物 (Giant Bio) is facing short-term sales pressure due to underperformance in its sales channels, but management remains focused on strategic adjustments [9] - The company plans to enhance its self-operated channels and reduce reliance on top influencers, aiming for long-term growth despite current competitive pressures [9] - The company has been approved to repurchase up to 10% of its shares, reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 53.89, down from a previous target of HKD 58.35, indicating a potential upside of 35.7% from the current price of HKD 39.70 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to disappointing sales during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, primarily attributed to the underperformance of the "Dabo" sales channel. This reflects both strategic channel adjustments by the company and overall competitive pressures in the industry [6]. - Management remains committed to maintaining pricing stability and enhancing consumer experience, which is expected to lay a foundation for long-term growth. The company plans to launch several key new products next year to drive a new growth cycle [6]. - The company has been approved to repurchase up to 104 million shares, representing 10% of its total share capital, demonstrating confidence in its long-term development [6]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, the company reported sales revenue of RMB 3,524 million, with a year-on-year growth of 49.0%. Projections for FY25E and FY26E show expected revenues of RMB 5,347 million and RMB 6,075 million, respectively, with growth rates of -3.5% and 13.6% [2][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY23A was RMB 1,452 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.9%. The forecast for FY25E and FY26E is RMB 1,903 million and RMB 2,126 million, with growth rates of -7.7% and 11.7% [2][11]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 24.0 for FY23A, decreasing to 15.2 by FY27E, indicating a potential increase in valuation as earnings grow [2][11]. Sales Performance - During the "Double Eleven" event, the company's online GMV for "Kefumei" declined approximately 30% year-on-year, with Tmall GMV down about 20% due to the company's decision to avoid aggressive price wars. However, the self-operated and mid-tier influencer channels showed resilience [6]. - The "Keli Jin" brand experienced double-digit growth in online GMV during the same period, particularly strong in the Douyin channel, indicating a successful strategy in diversifying sales channels [6]. Product Strategy - The company is actively cultivating a second tier of products to optimize its product structure, with expectations for significant revenue growth from new product launches in 2025 and 2026 [6]. - The medical beauty product line is set to expand, with the first injectable recombinant collagen product approved and plans for rapid terminal coverage expansion in 2026, which is anticipated to become a significant growth driver with higher profit margins than cosmetics [6].

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,095, up 0.91% for the day and 30.09% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,829, down 0.29% for the day and up 16.11% year-to-date [1] - The Nikkei 225 closed at 49,303, down 1.89% for the day and up 23.58% year-to-date [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 47,868, up 0.38% for the day and 36.23% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index closed at 14,417, up 1.23% for the day and 28.15% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index closed at 18,673, up 0.78% for the day and 25.21% year-to-date [2] Sector Performance in China - The Hong Kong market saw gains led by sectors such as comprehensive, energy, and industrial, while healthcare, information technology, and real estate lagged [3] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 4.101 billion HKD, with Meituan, Xiaomi Group, and Alibaba being the top net buyers [3] - A-shares experienced declines, particularly in media entertainment, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceutical sectors [3] Economic Indicators - Japan's 10-year government bond auction showed better-than-expected demand, alleviating concerns over rising yields impacting global liquidity [3] - Eurozone's November CPI rose to 2.2%, indicating persistent inflation in the services sector, with the ECB likely to maintain interest rates in December [3] U.S. Market Dynamics - U.S. stocks rebounded, with industrial, information technology, and communication services leading the gains, while energy, materials, and utilities saw declines [3] - Market expectations for a dovish monetary policy increased following Trump's hint at appointing a dovish candidate for the Federal Reserve chair [3] - The AI sector is becoming increasingly competitive, with Amazon launching its latest AI chip, Trainium3, to challenge Nvidia and Google's market position [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Macau gaming industry shows strong GGR growth in 11M25, with the full - year 2025 GGR expected to exceed the government's budget. The 2026 government target seems conservative. MPELs, STCITYs are top picks, and WYNMAC'27 and '29 are yield - pick - up plays, while neutral on MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOLs [7][9][12] - In the fixed - income market, various bonds have different price and spread movements, influenced by factors such as company performance, market flows, and macroeconomic conditions [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, there were active flows among AMs/PBs on JP financials and corps, but spreads were generally unchanged. Asian AMs and prop desks bought Yankee AT1s. Korean IGs tightened, while Chinese TMTs/POEs widened. NWDEVL complex mostly rose, CWAHK decreased, EHICAR was stable to up, FAEACO recovered, Macau gaming bonds had small price changes, and Chinese property bonds had mixed performance. In SE Asia, BBLTB senior tightened, and SMCGL Perps had small price movements [2] - This morning, new AGRBK 28, ANZ 28s/30s FRN, and HYUELEs tightened, while China TMTs/HAOHUA/PINGIN widened. JP insurance hybrids and AT1s were lower. SMCGL Perps were unchanged [3] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top performers include CHIOLI, NWDEVL, FAEACO, etc., with significant price increases. Top underperformers include CFAMCI, LNGFOR, TENCNT, etc., with price decreases [5] Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq were lower. US Nov'25 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was higher than expected, while ISM Manufacturing PMI/Prices were lower. UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.54%/3.67%/4.09%/4.74% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Macau Gaming - Cumulative GGR growth accelerated in 11M25. In Nov'25, GGR increased 14.4% yoy to MOP21.1bn. The 11M25 GGR reached MOP226.5bn, 84.0% of the 2019 level, and yoy growth widened to 8.6%. Full - year 2025 GGR is expected to reach cMOP245bn, exceeding the government budget. The 2026 government target of MOP236bn seems conservative [7][9][10] Offshore Asia New Issues - New issues include Agricultural Bank of China Limited Tokyo Branch (300mn USD, 3 - year, SOFR + 42) and ANZ (750mn USD 3 - year/500mn USD 5 - year, SOFR + 59/SOFR + 68) [15] - There is no new issue pipeline today [16] News and Market Color - 64 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB63bn. Media reported China asked real - estate data providers to withhold Nov'25 home - sales data. Asahi Mutual Life acquired MVI Life for cUSD170mn, and Fosun International issued a 2 - year JPY4.2bn bond at 3% [17] Company - Specific News - Fitch downgraded Greenko Energy to BB - from BB. Kaisa started consent solicitation on six USD bonds. NWD accepted tenders for multiple bonds. Petron Malaysia will halt operations due to a storm. S&P revised Vedanta Resources' outlook to positive. China Vanke seeks grace to repay a bond. West China Cement accepted a tender offer. ENN Energy extended the privatization document dispatch [22]

Industry Outlook - The Chinese equipment manufacturing industry is expected to focus on mining machinery, data center power supply, and equipment replacement cycles by 2026, with large mining excavators and trucks becoming key growth areas due to high metal prices and aging equipment [2] - Capital expenditure in global mining companies is projected to remain high, benefiting Chinese brands like Zoomlion, Sany Heavy Industry, and Sany International [2] - The domestic market is expected to see a continued equipment replacement cycle, with increased demand driven by the acceleration of hydropower project tenders in 2026 [2] - The global demand for backup generators for data centers is forecasted to increase by 70% from 2025 to 2030, presenting opportunities for Weichai Power to enter this market [2] Company Analysis - Sany Heavy Industry is expected to benefit from the growth in overseas large mining excavators and emerging markets, with an upward adjustment of 2-5% in profit forecasts for 2025E-27E due to increased sales assumptions [7] - Zoomlion is positioned to leverage its complete product line and focus on emerging markets, with profit forecasts for 2025E-27E raised by 12-15% [8] - Weichai Power anticipates a slowdown in heavy truck engine demand growth to 3% in 2026, but will benefit from the explosive growth in backup power supply engines for data centers, with profit forecasts for 2025E-27E adjusted upward by 1-5% [9] - Baozun's e-commerce segment reported a revenue of 2.2 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a narrowing net loss driven by margin expansion and cost optimization [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Maintain buy on FAEACO 12.814 Perp due to its decent risk - return profile, larger cushion against the covenanted adj. net gearing ratio, and expected cash inflow from project deliveries in Australia and the UK [2] - Maintain buy on MEITUA 3.05 10/28/30 and MEITUA 0 04/27/28 (CB) as Meituan's overall credit profile remains robust with a strong net cash position, despite near - term headwinds [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Last Friday, there was small better buying on JP/AU financial names and TW lifers; balanced two - way flows on Chinese AMCs 2 - 5yr notes which closed 1 - 2bps tighter; MEITUAs were unchanged to 3bps wider [2] - In FRN space, PBs were buying Chinese banks, leasing, and SEA names, while AM flippers were taking profit; FAEACO 12.814 Perp dropped 5.6pts; LASUDE 26 increased 0.5pt; CWAHK 26 - 30 edged 0.1 - 0.5pt firmer [2] - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 lowered 0.8 - 1.3pts; LNGFOR 29 was 1.7pts lower; ROADKG 28 edged 0.6 - 0.9pt higher; AMs were buying ZHHFGR and selling CPDEV [2] - Yankee AT1s were 0.1pt firmer, Japanese AT1s and insurance subs were largely stable, ACPM 5 1/8 Perp was 0.6pt higher; in SE Asia, some bonds were unchanged to 0.5pt higher [2] - This morning, BBLTB senior and JP financials tightened 1 - 2bps; VNKRLE 27 - 29 recovered 0.5 - 1.2pts; some bonds were 0.6 - 1.1pts higher, while others were 0.7 - 1.0pt lower [4] - MEITUAs were unchanged to 3bps wider post 3Q25 results announcement last Friday and unchanged this morning; IDASALs were unchanged this morning [4] Macro News Recap - Last Friday, S&P (+0.54%), Dow (+0.61%), and Nasdaq (+0.65%) were higher; UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.47%/3.59%/4.02%/4.67% [7] Desk Analyst Comments on Meituan - Meituan's 3Q25 adj. EBITDA dropped to negative RMB14.8bn due to the price war in China's food delivery market, with intense competition weighing on profitability [8] - The aggressive price war has eroded sector - wide margins, and the pressure is expected to persist until the competitive landscape becomes more rational, possibly through regulatory intervention [8] - Meituan's overall credit profile remains robust with a net cash position of RMB90.0bn as of Sep'25, which should cushion near - term earnings impact; near - term pressure on MEITUAs is expected, but further volatility presents better entry opportunities [9] Meituan's Financial Performance - Meituan's 3Q25 total revenue increased 2% yoy to RMB95.5bn, with core local commerce segment revenue decreasing 2.8% yoy to RMB67.4bn and turning into an operating loss of RMB14.1bn; new initiative segment revenue rose 15.9% yoy to RMB28.0bn, but segment loss increased 24.5% yoy to RMB1.3bn [12] - In 3Q25, selling and marketing expenses increased 90.1% yoy to RMB34.3bn, and R&D expenses increased 31.0% to RMB6.9bn; Meituan reported an operating loss of RMB19.7bn and negative adj. EBITDA of RMB14.8bn [13] - Meituan expects losses in the core local commerce segment and at the consolidated level to continue in 4Q25; the operating loss in the new initiative segment is expected to widen in 4Q25 for overseas expansion [13] - Meituan's liquidity position remained solid with a net cash position of RMB90.0bn as of Sep'25, down from RMB106.7bn as of Dec'24, and it had an average net cash position of RMB70.6bn in the past five years [14] Offshore Asia New Issues - No offshore Asia new issues were priced today [17] - Agricultural Bank of China Limited Tokyo Branch has a pipeline issue of 3 - year tenor with a coupon of SOFR + 100 and an issue rating of A1/-/- [18] News and Market Color - Last Friday, 70 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB59bn; in Nov'25, 2,133 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB2,286bn, a 17.8% yoy increase [22] - China Jinmao pledged a Shanghai property asset valued at RMB4.8bn as collateral for RMB9.9bn of syndicated loans [22] - China Water Affairs 1HFY26 EBITDA dropped 18.6% yoy to HKD2.2bn [22] - eHi Car 3Q25 fleet utilization rate rose 4.9 pct pt to 72.3% [22] - Seazen issued RMB616mn ABS backed by a Shanghai shopping mall [22] - HD Hyundai Heavy and its partner failed to win Poland's KRW8tn submarine project [22] - Mineral Industri Indonesia repurchased USD95.8mn of IDASAL 6.53 11/15/28 [22] - Melco Resorts Finance 9M25 operating revenue was up 14% yoy, and Studio City 9M25 operating revenue was up 10% yoy [22] - A Hong Kong tycoon seeks to sell some Rosewood Hotels [22] - Vedanta Resources is looking to raise USD600mn bank loan for refinance and secure INR20bn via INR - denominated NCDs at its subsidiary [22] - Vanke provided its entire stake in its property management arm as loan collateral to its controlling shareholder [22]

2025 年 12 月 1 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 1 上周五中国股市涨跌互现。港股下跌，医疗保健、能源与地产建筑领跌，原 材料、可选消费与信息科技领涨，南向资金净买入 27.3 亿港币，阿里巴巴、 泡泡玛特与小米集团净买入居前，中芯国际、紫金矿业与华虹半导体净卖出 最多。A 股上涨，工贸综合、可选消费零售与国防军工涨幅居前，银行、煤 炭与医药生物跌幅最大。国债收益率走平，人民币兑美元走强。 中国 11 月制造业 PMI 环比回升至 49.2，其中出口指数回升和高新技术制造 业 PMI 连续 10个月扩张是亮点，产成品库存指数再度下降表明需求疲弱推动 企业去库存。非制造业 PMI 小幅回落。 东京核心通胀超预期支持日本央行进一步加息。11 月东京核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%超出市场预期，电力价格上涨速度加快，抵消食品价格涨幅下降的影响。 近期日元走弱可能加剧日本通胀压力，增加了 12月加息概率。日本批准 18.3 万亿日元补充预算，发债计划中短债占比显著上升，因长债收益率持续上升。 德国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.3%低于预期 ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,946, with a slight increase of 0.07% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 29.34% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% to close at 3,875, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 15.62% [1] - The US markets showed no change, with the Dow Jones at 47,427 and the S&P 500 at 6,813, marking year-to-date increases of 11.48% and 15.83% respectively [1] - European markets remained stable, with the DAX and CAC showing minor increases of 0.18% and 0.04% respectively [1] Sector Performance in Hong Kong - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 0.59%, with a significant year-to-date rise of 36.57% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index decreased by 0.23%, but still shows a year-to-date increase of 26.78% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index saw a minor decline of 0.05%, with a year-to-date increase of 25.42% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index increased by 0.29%, with a year-to-date rise of 5.79% [2] Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market exhibited mixed results, with industrial profits declining by 5.5% year-on-year in October [3] - The Double Eleven shopping festival reported sales of 1.7 trillion RMB, surpassing last year's 1.44 trillion RMB, although the extended duration affected comparability [3] - The smartphone sales during the festival grew by 3% year-on-year, with Apple holding a 26% market share, while excluding Apple, sales actually declined by 5% [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 1.33 billion HKD, with notable net purchases in Alibaba, Pop Mart, and Meituan, while Xiaomi and Tencent experienced net sell-offs [3] Economic and Policy Insights - The Chinese government is focusing on regulating price competition and addressing issues of "involution" in various sectors [3] - The State Council highlighted emerging fields such as outer space, the internet, and artificial intelligence as new strategic focuses for development [3] - Recent research indicates that China's open-source AI models accounted for 17% of global downloads, surpassing the US's 15.8% [3] - Alibaba is entering the AI hardware market with its Quark AI glasses, priced starting at 1,899 RMB, integrating deep ecosystem services [3] International Market Reactions - European markets remained flat with low trading volumes, while the German stock exchange reported a significant rise in Allfunds shares following acquisition talks [3] - The UK bond yields slightly increased, and the pound experienced fluctuations against the dollar [3] - The US stock market was closed, with futures showing slight increases, while the dollar index hit a weekly low [3] - Oil prices fluctuated due to geopolitical developments, with OPEC+ maintaining its production pause, which supported oil prices [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the optical module industry, specifically for Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) with a target price of 591.00 RMB [2][27]. Core Insights - The optical module industry is expected to perform strongly in 2025, driven by high AI business proportions among suppliers, with significant revenue growth and profit margin expansion anticipated [2][4]. - Major cloud providers in the U.S. are projected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, reaching $367 billion in 2025, which will benefit optical module suppliers [5][11]. - The demand for 1.6T optical modules is expected to rise, contributing to the overall growth of the industry [21][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The optical module sector is highlighted as a preferred segment, with leading companies like Coherent, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Xinyi Sheng showing substantial revenue growth in 2025 [4][14]. - Revenue growth rates for these companies in the first three quarters of 2025 are projected at 19%, 44%, and 221% respectively [4][14]. Capital Expenditure Trends - The four major U.S. cloud providers (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) are expected to spend $2.3 billion in 2024, a 55% increase year-over-year, and further increase to $3.67 billion in 2025 [3][5]. - Forecasts indicate a continued increase in capital expenditures, with a projected 35% growth to $495 billion in 2026 [6][11]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply of key components, particularly EML chips, is under pressure, with Lumentum indicating that demand significantly exceeds supply [22][24]. - The industry is actively expanding production capacity, with Lumentum planning a 40% increase in capacity [22][23]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the optical module industry will continue to thrive, with a focus on high-value solutions and the transition to 1.6T products [21][27]. - The expected shipment volumes for 800G and 1.6T optical modules in 2026 are projected to reach 49 million and 22 million units respectively, despite a significant supply-demand gap [24][27].