整、四季度定价能力提升；重申 纳入恒生半导体指数、进行分销商战略性调整、四 "买入"评级 季度定价能力提升；重申"买入"评级 恒生指数正式将"恒生资讯科技业指数"更名为"恒生半导体行业主题指数"，并将 贝克微（2149 HK）纳入成份股，自 2025 年 11 月 7 日起生效。我们认为这将为 贝克微带来结构性利好，公司将有望受益于潜在被动资金流入提升市场流动性的 同时，吸引主动管理型基金的关注。重申"买入"评级；目标价维持 93 港元不变， 基于 26.6 倍 2025 年预测市盈率。 | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 销售收入 (百万人民币) | 464 | 579 | 672 | 841 | 1,046 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.6 | 24.8 | 16.1 | 25.1 | 24.4 | | 毛利率 (%) | 55.4 | 53.0 | 52.4 | 52.4 | 52.4 | | 运营利润 (百万人民币) | 113.4 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 591 RMB, reflecting a potential upside of 23.1% from the current price of 480 RMB [1][3][8]. Core Insights - The company's quarterly performance reached a new high, with Q3 revenue of 10.2 billion RMB, representing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 57% and 26%, respectively. The gross margin significantly increased to 42.8%, up 9.2 and 1.3 percentage points from the same period last year and the previous quarter [1][8]. - Net profit surged to 3.1 billion RMB, marking a historical peak with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 125% and 30%. The net profit margin improved to 30.7%, compared to 21.4% and 29.7% in the same period last year and the previous quarter [1][8]. - The demand for 800G optical modules and the increased adoption of silicon photonics solutions contributed to the scale effect and improved profitability. The management expects continued growth in 800G optical module demand and anticipates large-scale production of 1.6T silicon photonics products to begin in early 2026 [1][8]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, the company reported sales revenue of 10.7 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2%. Projections for FY24A, FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are 23.9 billion RMB, 37.9 billion RMB, 73.4 billion RMB, and 105.7 billion RMB, respectively, with significant growth rates of 122.6%, 59.0%, 93.5%, and 44.0% [2][15]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 33.0% in FY23A to 41.6% in FY25E, peaking at 44.3% in FY26E before slightly declining to 43.5% in FY27E [2][15]. - Net profit is projected to grow from 2.2 billion RMB in FY23A to 5.2 billion RMB in FY24A, reaching 10.8 billion RMB in FY25E, and further increasing to 23.2 billion RMB and 33.4 billion RMB in FY26E and FY27E, respectively [2][15]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the optical module market, which is expected to mitigate supply chain risks. The management has secured long-term capacity with key suppliers to address potential supply chain challenges [1][8]. - The expansion of capital expenditures by major cloud service providers for AI infrastructure is anticipated to drive further sales growth for the company. Notable increases in capital expenditure forecasts from companies like Google, Meta, and Microsoft reinforce this positive outlook [1][8].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,158, up 0.97% for the day and 30.40% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3,977, with a year-to-date increase of 18.64% [1] - The US markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.48% and the S&P 500 up 0.17% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.09%, with a year-to-date rise of 33.73% [2] - The Hang Seng Property Index rose by 1.53%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 22.48% [2] - The energy, financial, and consumer staples sectors led the gains in the Hong Kong market, while materials and consumer discretionary sectors declined [3] Economic Indicators - The 7-day reverse repo rate in China decreased to 1.4%, while the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.79% [3] - The US manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, indicating economic contraction for eight consecutive months [3] - The dollar index reached a three-month high, reflecting a strengthening dollar [3] Company Insights: Haier Smart Home - Haier's management maintains a cautious outlook for FY26, projecting mid to high single-digit sales growth and over 10% net profit growth [4] - The air conditioning segment is expected to see over 10% sales growth in the next 3-5 years, driven by enhanced R&D and digital inventory management [5] - The Casa Di brand aims for over 15% sales growth in FY26, focusing on innovation and expansion of high-end experience stores [6] Company Insights: China Life - China Life reported a nearly doubled net profit in Q3 FY25, reaching 1,260 million RMB, a 92% year-on-year increase [9] - The company benefited from rising market interest rates and a strong performance in investment services, with total investment income increasing by 41% year-on-year [9] - The new business value growth forecast has been raised to 38% for the year [9] Company Insights: China Pacific Insurance - China Pacific Insurance's Q3 FY25 net profit grew by 91.5% to 158 million RMB, driven by improved underwriting and investment income [10] - The company achieved a combined ratio improvement, with the car insurance and non-car insurance ratios both showing positive trends [10] - The investment service performance saw a significant increase, with total investment income reaching 359 million RMB, a 33% year-on-year growth [10] Company Insights: BYD Electronics - BYD Electronics is optimistic about revenue growth in 2026, driven by upgrades in North American client products and expansion in the automotive sector [11] - The company anticipates a 50% increase in revenue from foldable smartphones and a 20% increase from automotive business [11] - The AI server business is projected to generate sales of 5 billion RMB [11] Company Insights: Baker Hughes - Baker Hughes has been included in the newly named Hang Seng Semiconductor Industry Index, which is expected to enhance market liquidity and attract investor attention [12] - The strategic optimization of the index aims to improve the investability of Hong Kong's semiconductor companies [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 90 RMB, reflecting strong growth momentum driven by AI [1][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance shows significant growth, with revenue reaching 7.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%. The gross margin improved to 28.1%, up from 22.9% a year ago and 26.9% in the previous quarter. Net profit surged by 131% year-on-year and 18% quarter-on-quarter to 1 billion RMB, resulting in a net profit margin of 12.8% [1][8]. - The report forecasts revenue growth of 41% and 38% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with net profit expected to grow by 102% and 79% in the same periods [1][8]. Financial Summary - **Sales Revenue (Million RMB)**: - FY23A: 16,586 - FY24A: 20,388 - FY25E: 28,775 - FY26E: 39,631 - FY27E: 50,221 - **Year-on-Year Growth (%)**: - FY24A: 22.9% - FY25E: 41.1% - FY26E: 37.7% - FY27E: 26.7% [2] - **Gross Margin (%)**: - FY23A: 19.2% - FY24A: 22.0% - FY25E: 27.3% - FY26E: 30.5% - FY27E: 32.3% [2] - **Net Profit (Million RMB)**: - FY23A: 1,164 - FY24A: 1,738.7 - FY25E: 3,508.5 - FY26E: 6,272.3 - FY27E: 8,786.4 - **Year-on-Year Growth (%)**: - FY24A: 49.4% - FY25E: 101.8% - FY26E: 78.8% - FY27E: 40.1% [2] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned as a core supplier in the AI infrastructure sector, benefiting from strong demand for AI servers. Its subsidiary, Shengyi Electronics, reported a record quarterly revenue of 3.1 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 154% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40% [1][8]. - The copper-clad laminate business achieved revenue of 4.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 23%. Despite facing cost pressures from rising copper prices, the company expects price adjustments to mitigate most of the cost inflation [1][8]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 90 RMB represents a potential upside of 40% from the current price of 64.30 RMB [3]. - The report adjusts the earnings forecast upwards to reflect the company's strong growth and improving profit margins, with a projected P/E ratio of 35 times for 2026 [1][8].

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.43% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, while the US markets saw slight gains, particularly the Nasdaq which rose by 0.61% [1][3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 8.719 billion, with Xiaomi, Meituan, and 3SBio leading in net purchases, while Tencent and SMIC experienced significant net sales [3] Economic Insights - China's manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since 2008, indicating a further slowdown in economic activity for Q4, with expectations of policy easing from the central bank [4] - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with a 16.3% year-on-year decline in sales for the top 100 property companies from January to October, and a further drop in second-hand housing prices [4] Industry Analysis - The CIS market is expected to grow by 6.4% in 2024, reaching USD 23 billion, driven by the adoption of automotive ADAS and emerging applications like smart glasses [4][5] - The competitive landscape in the CIS industry is becoming more concentrated, with leaders like Sony pushing technological boundaries while competitors like Samsung focus on high-resolution solutions [5] Company Performance - Amazon reported Q3 2025 revenue of USD 180.2 billion, a 13.4% year-on-year increase, with AWS revenue exceeding expectations [6] - Coinbase's Q3 2025 revenue grew by 59% year-on-year to USD 1.79 billion, driven by strong trading performance [6] - Zhongji Xuchuang achieved record quarterly revenue of RMB 10.2 billion, a 57% year-on-year increase, supported by strong demand for 800G optical modules [7]

Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec reported strong Q3 2025 financial results, with revenue increasing by 15.3% year-on-year, and adjusted Non-IFRS net profit rising significantly by 42.0% [2] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of RMB 43.5 billion to RMB 44 billion, up from the previous guidance of RMB 42.5 billion to RMB 43.5 billion, indicating robust business execution despite macro uncertainties [2] - As of Q3 2025, the company's backlog for its small molecule D&M business reached RMB 59.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, highlighting its role as a key growth driver [6] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,434, up 1.05% for the day and 31.77% year-to-date, reflecting positive market sentiment [3] - The Chinese stock market saw gains, with sectors such as materials, information technology, and consumer discretionary leading the way, while telecommunications, finance, and energy lagged [5] - The U.S. stock market also experienced upward momentum, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising by 1.23% and 1.86% respectively, driven by improved risk appetite following U.S.-China trade negotiations [5] Industry Insights - The chemical segment of WuXi AppTec showed signs of recovery, with drug discovery services experiencing a slight revenue decline of 2.0% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing [7] - The company is witnessing early signs of demand recovery in the industry, attributed to improvements in the macro environment, including a rebound in the domestic capital market and favorable global business development transactions [7] - The management anticipates that the revenue growth from the small molecule D&M segment will significantly impact overall revenue growth, as it constitutes 46% of total revenue in 2024 [6]

Macro Commentary - The US September CPI year-on-year growth rate continues to rise slightly but is below market expectations, with core CPI showing a month-on-month slowdown [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to focus more on employment risks, with a potential interest rate cut in October or December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate of 3.75%-4% [2] - The Chinese stock market saw gains, with sectors like materials, consumer discretionary, and information technology leading, while utilities, consumer staples, and real estate lagged [4] Industry Commentary - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen 58.6% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24.2%, indicating a recovery in the pharmaceutical sector [5] - The CXO industry is expected to see performance recovery in the second half of 2025 due to a resurgence in demand for innovative drug development and a rebound in capital market financing [5] - The report highlights the importance of clinical progress for authorized innovative drug pipelines overseas as a catalyst for stock price increases [7] Company Commentary - Great Wall Motors reported a slight decline in gross margin in Q3 2025, with a 3.6% increase in average selling price, but net profit fell 50% to 2.3 billion yuan due to delays in tax refunds [9] - The company maintains a sales forecast of 1.35 million units for 2025, with expectations for Q4 sales to reach 430,000 units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [9] - Xiaomi is expected to report a strong Q3 2025 performance, with a projected 60% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit, driven by robust electric vehicle sales [14] - Weibo anticipates a 5% decline in total revenue for Q3 2025, primarily due to weaker advertising demand from certain industries [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in their stock prices over the next 12 months [2][33]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 58.6% from early 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24.2%. However, there has been a recent pullback of 10% in the healthcare sector, presenting a buying opportunity [1]. - The report highlights a recovery in the demand for domestic innovative drug research and development, driven by a resurgence in capital market financing and an increase in overseas clinical trials for authorized innovative drugs [1]. - The CXO industry is expected to see performance recovery in the second half of 2025, aided by the recent interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the clinical progress of authorized innovative drug pipelines overseas, as this could serve as a catalyst for stock price increases [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent clinical data released at the ESMO conference, focusing on several key drugs and their performance in clinical trials, such as SKB264 and ivonescimab, which show promising results in treating specific types of cancer [4]. - It notes that while business development (BD) activities for innovative drugs are ongoing, stock prices have not reflected this positively, primarily due to valuation concerns [4]. Company Ratings and Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation table for several companies, including: - **Sangamo Therapeutics (1530 HK)**: Market cap of $8.76 billion, target price of $37.58, with a 34% upside potential [2]. - **Gusongtang (2273 HK)**: Market cap of $932.7 million, target price of $48.28, with a 62% upside potential [2]. - **Giant Biologics (2367 HK)**: Market cap of $5.74 billion, target price of $58.35, with a 40% upside potential [2]. - **WuXi AppTec (2268 HK)**: Market cap of $10.87 billion, target price of $74.00, with a 5% upside potential [2]. - **China National Pharmaceutical Group (1177 HK)**: Market cap of $16.80 billion, target price of $9.40, with a 35% upside potential [2]. - **Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)**: Market cap of $18.94 billion, target price of $110.62, with a 29% upside potential [2].

Inflation Trends - September CPI year-on-year growth rose to 3%, slightly below market expectations[2] - Core CPI month-on-month growth decreased from 0.35% to 0.23%, also below expectations[5] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase from 0.7% to 1.5%, with gasoline prices rebounding from 1.9% to 4.1%[5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates once more by the end of the year, targeting a federal funds rate of 3.75%-4%[2] - Further rate cuts are anticipated next year, potentially bringing the rate down to 3.25%-3.5%[2] Housing and Services Impact - Rent inflation significantly declined, with the month-on-month growth rate dropping from 0.36% to 0.15%, the lowest since early 2021[5] - Other service inflation remains high, with travel services like lodging and airfare showing strong demand[5] Future Projections - October CPI month-on-month growth is expected to decrease to 0.2%, maintaining a year-on-year growth of 3%[5] - The potential for significant deviations in CPI data due to reduced sample collection is noted, increasing uncertainty around future rate cuts[2]

Macro Commentary - The core objective of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) emphasizes high-quality development, shifting focus from GDP growth to technological self-reliance and economic transformation [2][4] - Key strategic industries highlighted include artificial intelligence, semiconductors, advanced robotics, green energy, aerospace, and industrial software [2] - The plan aims to rebalance the economy towards consumption-driven growth, with increased investment in social services such as healthcare and elder care, benefiting sectors like consumer staples and healthcare [2][4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,968, up 0.72% year-to-date performance is 29.45% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,922, with a year-to-date increase of 17.03% [2] - U.S. markets showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.27% and the S&P 500 up 0.49% [2][4] Company Analysis - **Giant Bio (2367 HK)**: The approval of its first injectable aesthetic product marks the beginning of a new growth phase for the company. The product is aimed at facial dermal filling to correct dynamic wrinkles [5][6] - The company has a strong channel advantage due to its established network and brand recognition in the aesthetic market, which is expected to drive growth [5] - **Thermo Fisher (TMO US)**: Reported a strong 3Q25 performance with a revenue increase of 5.0% year-on-year and an adjusted EPS growth of 9.7%. The company raised its full-year guidance based on robust performance [6][7] - The demand from pharma and biotech clients is showing positive signs, with revenue growth driven by bioproduction and analytical instruments [7][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of pharmaceutical companies establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S., which will reflect in its performance by 2027-2028 [9]