Group 1: AI Industry Insights - The emergence of lower-cost and more user-friendly open-source large models is expected to lower the development threshold for B-end software and large models, potentially driving a prosperous software ecosystem[1] - Key sectors for AI contribution and revenue growth include online advertising, search, CRM, office collaboration, and development programming, with e-commerce, online advertising, tourism, gaming, healthcare, finance, education, and industrial manufacturing having larger monetization potential[1] - The report highlights three types of companies to focus on: AI cloud companies, those with mature AI application products, and companies where AI can significantly empower core business[1] Group 2: EHang Insights - EHang is the first domestic manufacturer to obtain three essential licenses for mass production of eVTOL aircraft, positioning it 1-2 years ahead of competitors[2] - Supported by over 1,000 intent orders, EHang's eVTOL aircraft shipments are expected to grow by 100% in 2025 and by 50% in 2026, reaching 432 units and 650 units respectively[3] - The low-altitude economy is receiving substantial policy support, making EHang an ideal target for investors in this sector[2] Group 3: Ctrip Insights - Ctrip's total revenue for Q4 2024 was 12.8 billion RMB, a 23% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations by 4%[4] - For the full year 2024, Ctrip's revenue is projected to grow by 20% to 53.4 billion RMB, with non-GAAP operating profit and net profit increasing by 23% and 38% respectively[4] - The stock price has dropped by 11%, reflecting market concerns over potential profit margin compression due to investments in international business expansion[4] Group 4: CSPC Pharmaceutical Insights - CSPC expects a 26% decline in net profit for 2024 to 4.35 billion RMB, primarily due to weak sales in its prescription drug segment, which is projected to decrease by 7% to 23.84 billion RMB[5] - The sales of oncology drugs are expected to drop by 28%, while cardiovascular drug sales are anticipated to decline by 15% due to pricing pressures from centralized procurement[6] - New product sales are expected to reach 2 billion RMB in 2024, with management targeting to double this figure in 2025, driven by several new drug launches[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price adjusted to $70.00, down from $71.00, reflecting a 20.4x PE for 2025E [1][4][12]. Core Insights - Trip.com reported total revenue of RMB 12.8 billion for Q4 2024, a 23% year-over-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 4%. The non-GAAP operating profit was RMB 2.8 billion, benefiting from optimized operating expenses [1]. - For 2025, revenue is expected to grow by 20% to RMB 53.4 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit and net profit projected to increase by 23% and 38% respectively [1]. - The report indicates that while incremental investments may pressure short-term profits, they are expected to support long-term growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Trip.com achieved a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 21.6%, slightly above expectations, with operating expenses at 57.6% of total revenue, better than the anticipated 59.0% [3]. - The company’s revenue for FY 2024 is projected at RMB 53.4 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 19.8% [9]. Revenue Forecasts - The revenue forecast for Q1 2025 is estimated at RMB 13.8 billion, aligning with consensus expectations, driven by a 15% increase in domestic hotel bookings [2]. - The report anticipates a 60% year-over-year growth in Trip.com’s outbound tourism revenue for 2025, supported by incremental investments [2]. Valuation Metrics - The adjusted target price of $70.00 reflects a 22.2% upside from the current price of $57.30 [4]. - The report projects a non-GAAP net profit margin of 28.6% for 2025, down from previous estimates due to adjustments in outbound tourism revenue forecasts [12]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the recent stock price decline of 11% has already priced in concerns regarding potential profit margin compression due to increased investments for international expansion [1]. - The analysts express optimism about Trip.com’s ability to deliver positive financial results in upcoming quarters, driven by enhanced operational efficiency [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical, indicating a potential return of over 15% within the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - CSPC Pharmaceutical is expected to experience a decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2024, with a forecasted decrease of 26% year-on-year to 4.35 billion RMB, primarily due to weak sales in finished drugs [1][3]. - The company anticipates that new product sales will reach 2 billion RMB in fiscal year 2024, with plans to double this figure in fiscal year 2025, driven by several innovative products [2][3]. - Despite the challenges faced in traditional drug sales, CSPC is expected to recover positive sales and net profit growth in 2025, supported by new product contributions and licensing agreements [2][3]. Financial Summary - For fiscal year 2024, CSPC's revenue is projected to decline by 7.7% to 29.04 billion RMB, while net profit is expected to drop by 27.5% [3][14]. - The company forecasts a revenue increase of 4.6% and a net profit increase of 14.7% in fiscal year 2025, with a target price maintained at 5.97 HKD [3][4]. - The financial outlook includes a projected operating profit of 6.42 billion RMB for fiscal year 2025, reflecting a recovery from the previous year's decline [3][14]. Sales Performance - Finished drug sales are expected to decline by 7% in fiscal year 2024, with significant drops in oncology and cardiovascular drug sales due to pricing pressures [1][3]. - The oncology segment is projected to see a 28% decrease in revenue, while cardiovascular drug sales are expected to decline by 15% [1][3]. Product Development - CSPC has several innovative assets in clinical trials and has successfully licensed out multiple products, which are expected to contribute positively to future revenues [2][3]. - The company is preparing to present data from its EGFR ADC Phase I clinical trial at the upcoming AACR conference, which could further enhance its product pipeline [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price of US$70.00, reflecting a potential upside of 22.2% from the current price of US$57.30 [4][20]. Core Insights - Trip.com reported a total revenue of RMB12.8 billion for 4Q24, representing a 23% year-over-year increase, which was 4% above Bloomberg consensus estimates. The non-GAAP operating income was RMB2.8 billion, also exceeding consensus by 4% due to better-than-expected operating expenses [1]. - For 2024, Trip.com achieved a revenue growth of 20% year-over-year, totaling RMB53.4 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit and net profit growing by 23% and 38% year-over-year, respectively [1]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 16% year-over-year for 1Q25, aligning with consensus expectations, driven by solid booking volume growth in the domestic hotel business [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q24, Trip.com’s non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) was 21.6%, slightly better than consensus, while the gross profit margin (GPM) was 79.1%, which was below expectations [3]. - The company plans to increase investments to support long-term growth, which may lead to short-term margin pressures but is expected to enhance overall business performance in the future [3]. Revenue Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased by 1% to RMB61.6 billion, while the non-GAAP net profit forecast has been reduced by 1% due to anticipated slower growth in the outbound travel segment [12]. - The report estimates that Trip.com’s international business will see a revenue growth of 60% year-over-year in 2025, supported by increased investments [2]. Market Position - Trip.com’s outbound travel bookings have recovered to over 120% of 2019 levels in 4Q24, outperforming the overall market by approximately 30-40 percentage points [2]. - The company’s share price has dropped by 11% post-results, which the report suggests has already priced in concerns regarding potential margin contraction in 2025 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - CSPC Pharmaceutical is experiencing an earnings decline primarily due to pricing pressure on its finished drug sales, with a forecasted net profit drop of 27.5% YoY for FY24 [7]. - The company anticipates a recovery in sales and net profit growth in FY25, driven by new product launches and out-licensing deals [7]. - The target price remains unchanged at HK$5.97, reflecting a potential upside of 18.8% from the current price of HK$5.03 [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY22 was RMB 30,937 million, with a slight increase to RMB 31,450 million in FY23, but expected to decline to RMB 29,040 million in FY24, followed by a recovery to RMB 30,388 million in FY25 and RMB 31,300 million in FY26 [2][12]. - Net profit decreased from RMB 6,232.1 million in FY22 to RMB 6,072.7 million in FY23, with a significant drop expected to RMB 4,404.9 million in FY24, before rebounding to RMB 5,053.5 million in FY25 and RMB 5,135.5 million in FY26 [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decline from RMB 0.51 in FY22 to RMB 0.38 in FY24, with a slight recovery to RMB 0.43 in FY25 and RMB 0.44 in FY26 [2][12]. Sales Performance - Finished drug sales are projected to decrease by 7% YoY to RMB 23.84 billion in FY24, with a notable 19.3% YoY decline in Q4 FY24 [7]. - Oncology revenue is expected to decline by 28%, while cardiovascular drug sales are forecasted to fall by 15% due to pricing pressures and exclusion from VBP rounds [7]. New Product Development - CSPC aims to achieve RMB 2.0 billion in sales from new products in FY24, with plans to double this revenue in FY25, focusing on products like Mingfule and Kelingda [7]. - The company has successfully out-licensed several innovative assets and has multiple products in clinical trials, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 168.08 RMB, representing a potential upside of 19.6% from the current price of 140.52 RMB [3][6][12]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a traditional equipment manufacturer to a smart imaging solution provider by deeply integrating AI applications into its product line, enhancing diagnostic support and data processing capabilities [1][6]. - The collaboration with its AI subsidiary, United Imaging Intelligence, is expected to strengthen the company's competitive edge in the medical imaging market, particularly through the "Device + AI" synergy [1][12]. - The report anticipates a recovery in performance due to ongoing medical equipment tender activities and a favorable policy environment for equipment upgrades and AI application penetration [13][12]. Financial Summary - **Sales Revenue (Million RMB)**: - FY22A: 9,238 - FY23A: 11,411 (27.4% YoY growth) - FY24E: 10,852 (-4.9% YoY decline) - FY25E: 13,194 (21.6% YoY growth) - FY26E: 16,097 (22.0% YoY growth) [2] - **Net Profit (Million RMB)**: - FY22A: 1,650.1 - FY23A: 1,977.8 (17.6% YoY growth) - FY24E: 1,573.1 (-20.5% YoY decline) - FY25E: 2,123.9 (35.0% YoY growth) - FY26E: 2,611.4 (23.0% YoY growth) [2] - **Adjusted Net Profit (Million RMB)**: - FY22A: 1,328 - FY23A: 1,665 - FY24E: 1,342 - FY25E: 1,962 - FY26E: 2,449 [2] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio**: - FY23A: 58.6 - FY24E: 73.6 - FY25E: 54.5 - FY26E: 44.3 [2] Market Position and Shareholder Structure - The company has a market capitalization of approximately 106.26 billion RMB and a significant shareholder structure, with United Imaging Technology Group holding 20.3% and Shanghai United Investment Co., Ltd. holding 16.4% [3][4]. - The company has shown strong stock performance, with a 33.5% absolute return over six months [5]. AI Integration and Product Development - United Imaging Intelligence has developed over 100 AI medical products, with numerous certifications including 12 NMPA Class III certificates and 15 FDA approvals, indicating a strong competitive position in the AI medical imaging sector [6][7]. - The integration of AI algorithms into imaging devices enhances operational efficiency and image quality, positioning the company favorably in the market [8][11]. Future Outlook - The report projects a significant recovery in the company's performance in 2025, driven by a resurgence in medical equipment tenders and a supportive policy environment for AI applications in healthcare [13][12]. - The DCF model used in the report estimates a per-share value of 168.08 RMB, based on a WACC of 9.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 4.1% [18].

行业点评 科技行业 -工业富联2024业绩解读：2025年AI服务器需求依旧强劲 工业富联（601138 CH，未评级）2024年业绩快报显示，收入/净利润同比增长28/10%，受益于云计算和品 牌客户对AI服务器需求驱动云计算业务强劲增长，以及通用服务器市场复苏。展望2025年上半年，尽管市场担 心DeepSeek的影响会导致计算需求放缓，但我们仍然对全球人工智能基础设施投资加速以及GB200/GB300 AI服务器机架增长持正面看法，全球主要CSP 用于2025年算力投入和大模型升级的资本支出指引可作为明 证。我们相信AI服务器供应链将继续受益，包括比亚迪电子、鸿腾精密和立讯精密。 中国保险行业 - 4Q24保险资金年化财务投资收益率连续第五个季度回升 保险资金规模：2024年全行业保险资金运用余额33.26万亿元，同比+15.1%，高于行业保费收入增速 11.2%；其中，人身险公司保险资金运用余额29.95万亿元，同比+15.8% （人身险保费收入增速13.3%）， 占比90.1%；财产险公司保险资金运用余额2.2万亿元，同比+9.7%（财产险保费收入增速5.3%），占比 6.7%。 投资收益率：4Q2 ...

Market Trends - Chinese stock market experienced a pullback on February 24, with technology, healthcare, and telecommunications sectors leading the decline in Hong Kong stocks[1] - U.S. investment policies are increasing risk aversion, benefiting defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities[1] - U.S. restrictions on investments in sensitive industries may prompt China to boost domestic demand, leading to a significant rise in the real estate sector[1] Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, while Treasury futures prices fell, indicating a potential tightening of monetary policy despite a fragile economic recovery[1] - The Chinese yuan remained stable, with the central bank showing intentions to stabilize the currency amid rising interest rates in the money market[1] Corporate Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized support for leading technology firms and strategic enterprises, indicating a continued focus on financing for tech companies[1] - The return of large Chinese companies to Hong Kong is ongoing, but smaller firms face challenges due to strategic, compliance, and regulatory issues[1] European Market Insights - European stocks saw a slight decline, with the German election results providing some clarity, while French stocks dragged down the overall market[2] - Germany's proposed €200 billion defense spending plan is expected to boost defense sector stocks, despite concerns over strict fiscal rules limiting structural deficits[2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets faced consecutive declines, particularly in information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, while healthcare and financial sectors showed some resilience[3] - The Dallas Fed's business activity index fell into contraction territory, adding to signs of economic weakness in the U.S.[3] Commodity Movements - Oil prices saw a slight increase, supported by Iraq's compensation commitments, while gold prices reached new highs due to rising risk aversion and a weaker dollar[4] - Gold prices have increased by 12% year-to-date, with significant inflows into gold ETFs marking the largest since 2022[4]

2025 年 2 月 21 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 宏观经济及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 中国经济 - 特朗普 2.0 时期人民币汇率展望 我们预计美元/人民币将于 2025/2026/2027 年底达到 7.48/7.33/7.55，而彭 博调查市场对 2025/2026 年底的预测中位数为 7.45/7.35。未来三年美元兑人 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 22,577 | -1.60 | 32.44 | | 恒生国企 | 8,323 | -1.66 | 44.28 | | 恒生科技 | 5,500 | -3.04 | 46.11 | | 上证综指 | 3,351 | -0.02 | 12.63 | | 深证综指 | 2,057 | 0.55 | 11.91 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,226 | -0.06 | 17.67 | | 美国道琼 ...