Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 9.81 [4] Core Insights - The company has successfully renewed multiple products in the 2024 National Medical Insurance Directory, including Tevizo and HER2 monoclonal antibody, and has added a new indication for Tevizo in pediatric ITP [1][2] - The company is expected to see stable pricing for renewed products due to ongoing support from the medical insurance fund for innovative drugs, which will contribute to steady growth [1][2] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow by 12.8% in 2024 and 12.2% in 2025, with a corresponding net profit growth of 13.6% in 2025 [4] Summary by Sections - **Product Renewals and New Additions**: Tevizo and HER2 monoclonal antibody have been successfully renewed, with Tevizo gaining a new indication for pediatric ITP. The newly approved drug, sodium naftifine oral disintegrating tablet, has also entered the medical insurance directory [1][2] - **Pipeline Development**: The company is advancing its pipeline with several innovative products entering NDA or Phase III clinical trials, expected to be approved between 2025E and 2027E, providing new growth momentum [1][3] - **Sales and Market Expansion**: The company has established a robust sales capability across various channels, including blood, oncology, nephrology, and rheumatology, and is continuously enriching its innovative pipeline [3] - **Valuation Metrics**: The current market capitalization corresponds to 6.6 times the estimated PE for 2025, indicating an attractive valuation. The expected dividend payout ratio is 30%, with a projected dividend yield of 4.5% for 2025 [1][4]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$410.0 based on 24x FY25E EV/EBITDA, up from the previous target of US$336.5 [1][7] Core Views - Salesforce reported inline 3QFY25 results with total revenue of US$9.44bn, up 8% YoY, and non-GAAP net income of US$2.32bn, up 12% YoY, both in line with consensus estimates [1] - cRPO grew 10% YoY on a constant currency basis, beating previous guidance of 9% YoY, driven by early renewals, strong booking performance, and momentum from Agentforce [1] - For 4QFY25E, Salesforce guided total revenue growth of 7-9% YoY to US$9.90-10.10bn, in line with consensus estimates of US$10.05bn [1] - The company raised FY25E non-GAAP OPM guidance to 32.9% from 32.8%, driven by efficiency improvements and expense control [1] Financial Performance - Salesforce's revenue is expected to grow from US$37.9bn in FY25E to US$44.2bn in FY27E, with adjusted net profit increasing from US$9.7bn to US$12.3bn over the same period [5][10] - Non-GAAP operating margin improved by 1.9ppt YoY to 33.1% in 3QFY25, with FY25E guidance raised to 32.9% [1] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 77.0% in FY25E to 78.3% in FY27E, while non-GAAP OPM is projected to rise from 32.9% to 35.9% over the same period [5] Growth Drivers - Agentforce, Salesforce's AI agent platform, saw strong demand with over 200 deals closed in 3QFY25, and the launch of Agentforce 2.0 in Dec is expected to further expand monetization opportunities [1] - AI-related deals more than tripled YoY to 2,000 in 3QFY25, with multi-cloud adoption continuing to show strong momentum, averaging over 5 clouds per top 25 deal [1] - Data Cloud, a foundation for AI implementation, was included in one-third of all deals over US$1mn and 8 of the top 10 deals in 3QFY25 [1] Valuation - Salesforce is valued at US$410.0 per share based on 24x FY25E EV/EBITDA, a discount to the sector average of 31x, reflecting its more mature earnings growth stage [7][8] - The target EV/EBITDA multiple implies a target equity valuation of US$397.7bn, with net cash of US$14.1bn factored into the valuation [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [22]. Core Insights - The report discusses two self-regulatory initiatives aimed at optimizing the management of non-bank interbank deposit rates and introducing "interest rate adjustment clauses" in deposit service agreements, effective from December 1, 2024. These initiatives are expected to enhance the efficiency of monetary policy transmission and reduce financial arbitrage [1][2]. - The initiatives are projected to positively impact banks by lowering funding costs and easing net interest margin (NIM) pressures. The estimated impact on listed banks' NIM is between 1.5 to 1.8 basis points [1][6]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Initiatives Overview - The initiatives establish a benchmark for interbank demand deposit pricing linked to the excess reserve rate (currently 0.35%) and the 7-day reverse repo rate (currently 1.50%) [2]. - They also standardize the pricing reference for early withdrawal of time deposits, ensuring that the early withdrawal rate does not exceed the excess reserve rate [2]. Section 2: Impact on Banks - The linkage of interbank demand deposit rates to policy rates is expected to reduce arbitrage opportunities and enhance transparency in pricing, which has been low due to market liquidity influences [3]. - The average interest cost for state-owned and joint-stock banks' interbank and other financial institution deposits increased by 10.6 basis points year-on-year, indicating a growing reliance on interbank deposits for funding [3]. Section 3: NIM Impact Assessment - The report estimates that the adjustment of interbank demand deposit rates could save interest expenses by approximately 40 to 480 million yuan, leading to an increase in NIM by 1.5 to 1.8 basis points [6][7]. - As of Q3 2024, the total balance of interbank deposits among 42 A-share listed banks was 26.9 trillion yuan, with interbank demand deposits potentially accounting for 50-60% of this total [6][7]. Section 4: Beneficiaries - The report identifies potential beneficiaries of the initiatives, particularly state-owned banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China, which are expected to benefit more significantly from reduced funding costs [7].

2 Dec 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Meituan (3690 HK) 3Q results beat; driving earnings growth in a more holistic perspective Meituan reported (29 Nov) its 3Q24 results: revenue was RMB93.6bn, up 22% YoY, 2% higher than both our estimate and Bloomberg consensus estimate. Adj. NP reached RMB12.8bn, 4%/10% better than our estimate/consensus, due to both better-than-expected operating profit (OP) generated from core local commerce (CLC) business, aided by subsidy opti ...

Investment Rating - The target price for the company is HK$199.20, representing an 18.1% upside from the current price of HK$168.70 [10] - The investment rating is based on a DCF valuation, with the target price revised upward by 26% to HK$199.20, reflecting improved earnings forecasts and an extended valuation horizon to 2025 [25] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 93.6 billion, a 22% YoY increase, surpassing both the analyst's and Bloomberg consensus expectations [6] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 12.8 billion, exceeding expectations by 4% and 10%, driven by better-than-expected performance in the Core Local Commerce (CLC) segment and reduced losses in new initiatives [6] - The company is focusing on operational integration within the CLC segment and expanding its food delivery (FD) business in the Middle East, which may slightly offset short-term earnings growth but supports long-term ecosystem development [6] Financial Performance Core Local Commerce (CLC) - CLC revenue and operating profit for Q3 2024 were RMB 69.4 billion and RMB 14.6 billion, respectively, growing 20% and 44% YoY, both exceeding expectations [7] - CLC operating margin improved by 3.5 percentage points to 21.0%, driven by increased delivery service revenue per order and optimized user subsidies [18] - CLC revenue and operating profit for Q4 2024 are expected to grow 18% and 44% YoY, reaching RMB 65.2 billion and RMB 11.6 billion, respectively [7] New Initiatives - New initiatives revenue in Q3 2024 grew 29% YoY to RMB 24.2 billion, with operating losses narrowing to RMB 1.0 billion, better than expected [8] - Meituan Select's operating losses narrowed to RMB 1.7 billion in Q3 2024, significantly better than the RMB 5.0 billion loss in Q3 2023 [8] - Excluding Meituan Select, other new initiatives achieved an operating profit of RMB 70 million in Q3 2024 [8] International Expansion - The company is investing in FD expansion in the Middle East, with expected operating losses of RMB 5.55 billion in Q4 2024 due to this expansion [9] - The financial impact of international FD expansion is expected to fully materialize in 2025, with higher gross transaction value (GTV) margins compared to domestic FD due to higher average order values (AOV) and delivery fees [9] Forecast and Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were revised upward by 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, reflecting better-than-expected FD revenue growth [23] - Operating profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were raised by 14.0% and 6.2%, respectively, due to improved unit economics in the FD segment [23] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 were increased by 5% to 9%, with the target price raised to HK$199.20 based on a DCF valuation [6] Valuation Methods - The DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 11.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, resulting in a target price of HK$199.20 [25] - A sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation cross-check suggests a per-share valuation of HK$230.0, with FD and ISHT segments valued at 20.0x and 17.0x 2025E PE, respectively [28] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 336.97 billion, with a YoY growth of 21.8%, while adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 45.04 billion, a 93.7% YoY increase [13] - The company's ROE is forecasted to improve to 23.0% in 2024E, up from 9.9% in 2023A [13] - The P/E ratio for 2024E is 25.5x, declining to 18.1x by 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Chow Tai Fook with a target price (TP) cut by 31% to HK$10.00, reflecting lower net profit forecasts [1][3]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a 1H FY25 revenue decline of 20.4% YoY to HK$39.4 billion, with net profit dropping 44.4% YoY to HK$2.5 billion, which was 20% below consensus estimates. This was attributed to weak consumer sentiment and fair value loss of gold loans due to rising gold prices [1][2]. - The company has announced a share buyback plan of HK$2 billion and declared a dividend of HK$0.2 per share, despite the significant decline in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY25E is projected at HK$91,057 million, reflecting a YoY decline of 16.2%. For FY26E and FY27E, revenue is expected to decrease by 2.4% and increase by 3.2%, respectively [2][5]. - Net profit estimates for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are HK$4,994 million, HK$6,396 million, and HK$6,829 million, indicating a YoY change of -23.2%, +28.1%, and +6.8%, respectively [2][5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve slightly to 25.1% in FY25E, while the EBIT margin is projected at 10.5% [5][7]. Shareholder Returns - Chow Tai Fook has increased its payout ratio from 55% in 1HFY24 to 79% in 1HFY25, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns despite the decline in net profit [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook (CTF) despite lowering the target price by 31% to HK$10.00, which corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times for FY25E [3][5][16]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a 20.4% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of FY25, amounting to HK$39.4 billion, which aligns with market expectations. However, net profit fell by 44.4% to HK$2.5 billion, missing market expectations by 20% due to weak consumer confidence and fair value losses on gold loans due to rising gold prices [1][2]. - The company announced a share buyback plan of up to HK$2 billion and declared a dividend of HK$0.2 per share for the second half of FY25, down from HK$0.25 in the previous year [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue for FY25E is projected to decline by 16.2%, with further declines of 2.4% and a slight recovery of 3.2% in FY26E and FY27E, respectively [2][7]. - Net profit forecasts have been adjusted downwards by 20-30%, with expected profits of HK$4.99 billion, HK$6.40 billion, and HK$6.83 billion for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E, respectively [2][10]. Financial Performance Metrics - The report highlights a gross margin increase of 6 percentage points to 31.6% due to higher gold prices and a doubling of fixed-price product sales [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow is expected to improve in the second half of FY25, which will support the share buyback plan [3][10]. Market Context - The report notes that the global environment remains uncertain, with potential continued volatility in gold prices impacting the company's performance [2][3]. - The share price has seen a significant decline of 29.9% over the past six months, indicating market challenges [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for BYDE, with a target price of HK$44.41, implying a 29.3% upside from the current price of HK$34.35 [5][10][11]. Core Insights - Key growth drivers identified for BYDE include Apple products, New Energy Vehicles (NEV), and AI server components, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue in 2025 [3][10]. - The management has a positive outlook for all segments in Q4 2024 and 2025, highlighting growth in iPad market share, high-end Android demand, and the ramp-up of AI server products [3][10]. - The automotive segment is projected to generate revenue of RMB30 billion in FY25E, driven by high-end Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and suspension products [3][10]. - AI server sales are expected to reach RMB1 billion in FY24E and RMB3-5 billion in FY25E, with a gross profit margin similar to industry peers at around 10% [3][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB129,957 million in FY24E to RMB196,265 million in FY25E, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.3% [4][8]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB4,428 million in FY24E to RMB6,070 million in FY25E, with a growth rate of 37.1% [4][8]. - The report indicates a consistent increase in earnings per share (EPS), projected to rise from RMB2.67 in FY24E to RMB3.36 in FY25E [4][8]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 11.9x for FY25E, which is considered attractive compared to the target P/E of 15.0x [3][10][11]. - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach, assigning a P/E of 15x to various business segments, reflecting their growth potential and earnings visibility [10][11][12]. Segment Performance - The assembly segment is expected to contribute 16% to FY25E profit, while the automotive intelligent segment is projected to account for 29% [12]. - The component business, including Jabil components, is also expected to contribute significantly, with each segment assigned a target P/E of 15x [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to $3.10 from the previous $3.20, indicating a potential upside of 30.3% from the current price of $2.38 [8][11]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected Q3 2024 results, with total revenue reaching RMB 2.1 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus by 9%. The non-GAAP net loss narrowed to RMB 67 million from RMB 76 million in Q3 2023, also better than the expected loss of RMB 80 million [8][10]. - The e-commerce segment (BEC) saw a revenue growth of 14%, improving from 6% in Q2 2024, driven by new high-quality distribution channels and emerging e-commerce services [8][10]. - The brand management segment (BBM) achieved a 10% year-over-year growth, recovering from a 9% decline in Q2 2024, attributed to increased order attach rates and new store openings [8][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY 2024, total revenue is projected to grow to RMB 9.42 billion, reflecting a 6.9% year-over-year increase, with BBM and BEC expected to grow by 14% and 6% respectively [19]. - The company anticipates achieving non-GAAP operating profit of RMB 5 million in 2024, a significant improvement from the previous forecast of a loss of RMB 2.8 million [10][19]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve to RMB 185 million in 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 5.8% [10][19]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, estimating the enterprise value at RMB 5.26 billion based on a 3.0x EV/EBIT multiple and RMB 1.44 billion based on a 0.1x EV/sales multiple, alongside RMB 2.6 billion in net cash [10][17]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to improve from 23.9x in FY 2023 to 16.9x in FY 2025, indicating a more favorable valuation outlook [19][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to US$3.1, reflecting a potential upside of 30.3% from the current price of US$2.38 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected results for Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB2.1 billion, which is 9% above Bloomberg consensus estimates. The non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders narrowed to RMB67 million from RMB76 million in Q3 2023, outperforming the consensus estimate of an RMB80 million loss [1]. - The company's e-commerce segment (BEC) achieved a revenue growth of 14%, an improvement from 6% in Q2 2024, driven by high-quality new distribution businesses and an increase in services revenue from emerging e-commerce channels. The Baozun Brand Management (BBM) segment also turned around with a 10% year-over-year growth [1]. - The overall adjusted operating loss narrowed in Q3 and was better than expectations, with product sales revenue increasing by 11% year-over-year to RMB783 million, and services revenue rising by 14% year-over-year to RMB1.3 billion [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, total revenue is estimated to grow by 14% for BBM and 6% for BEC, with a forecasted non-GAAP operating profit of RMB5 million, improving from a loss of RMB23.7 million in 2023. The company anticipates achieving non-GAAP operating breakeven in 2024 [1][3]. - The financial summary indicates a projected revenue of RMB9.420 billion for FY2024, with a year-over-year growth of 6.9%. The adjusted net profit is expected to improve to a loss of RMB21.1 million, compared to a loss of RMB65.1 million in FY2023 [3][7]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in operating efficiency, with a forecasted return to profitability in FY2025, projecting a net profit of RMB185.2 million [3][11]. Valuation Metrics - The SOTP-based valuation consists of RMB526 million for BEC based on a 3.0x 2024E EV/EBIT, RMB144 million for BBM based on a 0.1x 2024E EV/sales, and RMB2.6 billion in net cash, applying a 60% holding discount to the group-level valuation [1][5]. - The report provides a P/E ratio of 16.9x for FY2025 and 9.8x for FY2026, indicating a potential recovery in earnings [3][11].