Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to US$3.1, reflecting a potential upside of 30.3% from the current price of US$2.38 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected results for Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB2.1 billion, which is 9% above Bloomberg consensus estimates. The non-GAAP net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders narrowed to RMB67 million from RMB76 million in Q3 2023, outperforming the consensus estimate of an RMB80 million loss [1]. - The company's e-commerce segment (BEC) achieved a revenue growth of 14%, an improvement from 6% in Q2 2024, driven by high-quality new distribution businesses and an increase in services revenue from emerging e-commerce channels. The Baozun Brand Management (BBM) segment also turned around with a 10% year-over-year growth [1]. - The overall adjusted operating loss narrowed in Q3 and was better than expectations, with product sales revenue increasing by 11% year-over-year to RMB783 million, and services revenue rising by 14% year-over-year to RMB1.3 billion [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, total revenue is estimated to grow by 14% for BBM and 6% for BEC, with a forecasted non-GAAP operating profit of RMB5 million, improving from a loss of RMB23.7 million in 2023. The company anticipates achieving non-GAAP operating breakeven in 2024 [1][3]. - The financial summary indicates a projected revenue of RMB9.420 billion for FY2024, with a year-over-year growth of 6.9%. The adjusted net profit is expected to improve to a loss of RMB21.1 million, compared to a loss of RMB65.1 million in FY2023 [3][7]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in operating efficiency, with a forecasted return to profitability in FY2025, projecting a net profit of RMB185.2 million [3][11]. Valuation Metrics - The SOTP-based valuation consists of RMB526 million for BEC based on a 3.0x 2024E EV/EBIT, RMB144 million for BBM based on a 0.1x 2024E EV/sales, and RMB2.6 billion in net cash, applying a 60% holding discount to the group-level valuation [1][5]. - The report provides a P/E ratio of 16.9x for FY2025 and 9.8x for FY2026, indicating a potential recovery in earnings [3][11].

22 Nov 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update iQIYI (IQ US) Short-term headwind continues; strategic upgrades to drive long-term growth iQiyi reported 3Q24 financial results: total revenue declined by 10% YoY to RMB7.2bn, in line with Bloomberg consensus and our estimate; non-GAAP net income was down by 23% YoY to RMB480mn, ahead of consensus/our estimate of RMB266/426mn primarily due to better-than-expected opex control and foreign exchange gains. Looking ahead in 4Q24E, w ...

22 Nov 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 爱奇艺 (IQ US) 短期逆风持续 ； 战略升级推动长期增长 爱奇艺报告了2024年第三季度财务结果：总收入同比下降10%，达到人民币72亿 元，符合彭博一致预期和我们的估计；非GAAP净收入下降23%，至人民币4.8亿 元，超出彭博一致预期和我们的估计（人民币2.66亿/4.26亿），主要得益于更好 的运营费用控制和外汇收益。展望2024年第四季度，我们预计总收入将同比下降 14%，环比下降8%，主要由于内容供应减少和消费情绪疲软。不过，我们预计2 024年第四季度非GAAP营业利润环比大致持平，为人民币3.68亿元，得益于爱奇 艺谨慎的成本和运营费用控制。该公司将增加迷你剧的投资，同时削减低回报率 内容的投资，我们预计这将帮助爱奇艺抓住新的增长机会并长期提高利润率。我 们将2024年至2026年的总收入预测下调3-4%，以反映相对疲弱的内容表现和宏 观经济不确定性。我们将目标价调整至4.50美元，基于2025年非GAAP每股收益 的15倍市盈率（之前基于15倍2025年非GAAP每股收益的目标价为4.80美元）。 维持买入评级。 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - NVIDIA's Q3 revenue reached $35.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 93.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.8%[1] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 was 75.0%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, aligning with company guidance and Bloomberg consensus[1] - Non-GAAP earnings per share for Q3 were $0.81, up 101.0% year-on-year and 18.4% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 8.9%[1] Group 2: Business Segments - Data center revenue hit a record high of $30.8 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 112.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 17.1%[2] - 90% of data center revenue, approximately $27.6 billion, came from computing, which saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.3%[2] - Gaming, professional visualization, and automotive segments experienced quarter-on-quarter revenue growth of 13.9%, 7.0%, and 29.8%, respectively[2] Group 3: Demand Outlook - Strong demand for the Hopper series, with H200 sales reaching several billion dollars in Q3, is expected to continue into the second half of the year and next year[3] - NVIDIA delivered 13,000 GPU samples in Q3, with Q4 deliveries expected to exceed previous forecasts[3] - Approximately 50% of Q3 data center revenue was contributed by cloud vendors, totaling around $15 billion, with major players like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon accounting for about 30% of their capital expenditures directed towards NVIDIA[3] Group 4: Margin Expectations - Initial gross margins for the Blackwell series are projected to be between 71.0% and 72.5%, with expectations of improvement to around 70% as production stabilizes and scales up[4]

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Outperform" for the next 12 months, indicating expected performance to exceed market benchmarks [15]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's Q3 FY25 revenue reached $35.082 billion, a year-on-year increase of 93.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.8% [1][10]. - The data center segment generated $30.8 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 112.0% [1][10]. - The demand outlook remains optimistic, particularly for the Hopper series, with significant contributions from cloud service providers [1][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - NVIDIA's Q3 FY25 revenue was $35.082 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 5.5% [1][10]. - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 was 75.0%, consistent with company guidance [1][10]. - Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.81, exceeding expectations by 8.9% [1][10]. Business Segments - Data center revenue reached $30.8 billion, with 90% derived from compute-related revenue, which grew 132.0% year-on-year [1][10]. - The gaming and professional visualization segments also showed growth, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 13.9% and 29.8%, respectively [1][10]. Future Outlook - NVIDIA expects Q4 FY25 revenue to be around $37.5 billion, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.9% [1][10]. - Management anticipates continued growth in the Hopper series and a stable gross margin of approximately 75% for FY25 [1][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Thermo Fisher with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of $670 [1][5][33]. Core Insights - Thermo Fisher is positioned as a global leader in the life sciences sector, benefiting from industry improvement trends and a comprehensive product and service portfolio [1][2]. - The company is expected to experience revenue growth of +0.4% in 2024, +5.6% in 2025, and +8.3% in 2026, with Non-GAAP net profit growth of -1.0%, +5.7%, and +10.4% respectively [1][2]. - The report highlights the anticipated recovery in biotech financing, driven by the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting environment, which is expected to boost customer demand [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Thermo Fisher has the largest business scale and service range in the industry, providing integrated services from drug discovery to commercial production [1][2]. - The company’s bioproduction services offer a competitive edge in securing customer orders, while its CDMO business addresses clinical trial supply challenges [1][2]. Financial Strength - Thermo Fisher is an active consolidator in the life sciences sector, with management planning to allocate 60%-75% of capital for mergers and acquisitions [1][2]. - The company has consistently generated robust free cash flow, providing a solid financial foundation for future expansions [1][2]. Market Trends - The global life sciences market is projected to grow due to increasing demand for pharmaceuticals, drug production costs, and R&D expenditures [1][2]. - The report notes that downstream customers are expected to complete inventory destocking by 2024, which will normalize order patterns [1][2]. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, including projected sales revenue of $43,033 million in 2024, with a growth trajectory leading to $49,234 million by 2026 [2][28]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be $8,278 million in 2024, increasing to $9,662 million by 2026 [2][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for PDD Holdings, citing that the stock price reflects short-term pressures and is supported by policy measures to boost consumption [1]. Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported a revenue growth of 44.3% year-on-year for Q3 2024, reaching RMB 99.4 billion, which was approximately 3% below Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 down by 4%-9% and non-GAAP net profit forecasts down by 9%-16% due to the impact of enhanced merchant support measures [1]. - The target price has been revised down from USD 187.90 to USD 156.80, corresponding to a 14x P/E ratio for 2024 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB 398.2 billion, with a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 123.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 81.7% [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased to 60.0%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous year, attributed to a miss in commission revenue forecasts [1][6]. - The company’s operating profit margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 24.5%, which is 2.9 percentage points lower than expected [6]. Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services and other revenues grew by 24.3% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching RMB 49.4 billion, while transaction service fees increased by 71.5% to RMB 50 billion [1][6]. - The total revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 99.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.3% [6]. Strategic Initiatives - Management emphasized ongoing investments in the merchant ecosystem to foster a healthier and more sustainable platform, including fee waivers and enhanced after-sales support [1]. - The company has implemented a RMB 10 billion fee reduction plan benefiting over 10 million merchants, aimed at cost savings and efficiency improvements [1].

Investment Rating - Maintains a **Buy** rating with a target price raised to **USD 23.3** (previously USD 21.5), reflecting a 15.2% upside from the current price of USD 20.23 [1][5] Core Views - **Revenue Growth**: Q3 2024 revenue increased by 27% YoY to RMB 22.6 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus and CICC estimates by 1.5% and 4.7%, respectively, due to weak existing home transaction (EHT) sentiment [1] - **Non-GAAP Net Income**: Q3 2024 non-GAAP net income was RMB 1.8 billion, with a gross margin of 7.9%, in line with expectations, driven by cost control measures [1] - **Market Share Expansion**: Continued market share gains in both existing home transactions (EHT) and new home transactions (NHT), along with successful new business expansion, support a positive outlook [1] - **Q4 2024 Outlook**: EHT and NHT gross transaction value (GTV) are expected to grow over 40% YoY, supported by strong performance in October and November, though additional expenses of RMB 1-1.5 billion may reduce Q4 non-GAAP net income to RMB 220 million [2] Business Performance - **EHT Performance**: EHT GTV grew 9% YoY but declined 17% QoQ due to slowing transaction sentiment post-June peak, with contribution margin dropping 7 percentage points to 41% due to increased fixed costs from agent expansion [2] - **NHT Performance**: NHT GTV grew 18.5% YoY, significantly outperforming the industry's 19% decline, driven by partnerships with state-owned developers [2] - **Policy Impact**: Policy Package 924 and subsequent measures have significantly boosted transaction sentiment, with better sustainability compared to previous policy supports [2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: FY2024E revenue is projected at RMB 91.0 billion, growing 17.1% YoY, with FY2025E and FY2026E revenues expected at RMB 107.7 billion (+18.3% YoY) and RMB 121.8 billion (+13.0% YoY), respectively [4] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: FY2024E non-GAAP net profit is estimated at RMB 8.1 billion, with FY2025E and FY2026E projections of RMB 9.4 billion (+16.7% YoY) and RMB 10.9 billion (+16.0% YoY), respectively [4] - **Valuation Metrics**: The target price implies a 2025E non-GAAP P/E of 21.4x, with core business valued at USD 22.3 per ADS and Shengdu at USD 0.9 per ADS [1][10] Corporate Social Responsibility - **Employee Welfare**: Plans to invest RMB 1.2 billion over the next 3-4 years in employee welfare, including transitioning to fixed salary structures and providing social insurance for brokers, enhancing long-term value [3] Valuation Summary - **DCF Valuation**: The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation for the core business is RMB 193.7 billion, with a total enterprise value of RMB 201.7 billion, translating to a valuation of USD 23.3 per ADS [9][10] - **SOTP Valuation**: The sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation includes RMB 193.7 billion for the core business and RMB 8.0 billion for Shengdu, resulting in a total valuation of RMB 201.7 billion (USD 28.0 billion) [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for PDD Holdings, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1]. Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported a revenue increase of 44.3% YoY in 3Q24, reaching RMB99.4 billion, which was 3% below Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit rose by 61.3% YoY to RMB27.5 billion, also falling short of consensus by 6% due to revenue generation misses [1]. - The target price (TP) has been adjusted down to US$156.8 from US$187.9, reflecting a 34.6% upside from the current price of US$116.49 [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing merchant support, which has led to cost savings for over 10 million merchants [1]. - Management plans to continue investing in the merchant ecosystem to ensure sustainable long-term growth [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB398.2 billion, with a net profit of RMB113.0 billion, reflecting a YoY growth of 81.7% [3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 61.8% in FY24E, with an operating margin of 28.2% [5]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is forecasted at RMB123.4 billion, with a P/E ratio of 10.3x [3][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services and other revenues increased by 24.3% YoY to RMB49.4 billion in 3Q24, while transaction services revenue grew by 71.5% YoY to RMB50.0 billion [1]. - The total revenue for 3Q24 was RMB99.4 billion, with a gross profit of RMB59.6 billion, resulting in a gross profit margin of 60.0% [1][5]. Segment Valuation - The SOTP valuation indicates that the main app contributes RMB240.1 billion in revenue, with a valuation of US$119.1 per share based on a 12x 2024E P/E [5]. - Duoduo Grocery is valued at US$1.9 per share, while Temu is valued at US$15.7 per share based on a 1.2x 2024E P/S [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Ke Holdings (BEKE US) with a target price raised to US$23.30 from US$21.50, indicating a potential upside of 15.2% from the current price of US$20.23 [3]. Core Insights - Ke Holdings reported a revenue increase of 27% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB22.6 billion for Q3 2024, although this was slightly below consensus estimates due to mixed performance in existing home transactions [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies in Q4 2024, with guidance indicating over 40% YoY growth in both existing and new home transaction volumes [1]. - The report highlights the company's proactive expansion strategy, which has led to an increase in fixed costs but is expected to enhance long-term value through improved employee compensation and social responsibility initiatives [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB91.0 billion, with a YoY growth of 17.1%, and net profit is expected to be RMB5.19 billion [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB1.8 billion, with a margin of 7.9%, aligning with estimates [1]. - The company anticipates a non-GAAP net profit of RMB2.2 billion for Q4 2024, reflecting a margin of 7.7% [1]. Business Segment Performance - Existing home transaction (EHT) gross transaction value (GTV) rose 9% YoY but fell 17% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), while new home transaction (NHT) GTV increased by 18.5% YoY, outperforming the industry [1]. - The report notes a divergence in performance between EHT and NHT businesses, with EHT facing challenges due to low transaction sentiment [1]. Future Outlook - The report projects continued growth in both EHT and NHT segments, driven by recent policy support and market share gains [1]. - The company plans to invest RMB1.2 billion over the next 3-4 years in staff welfare and social insurance for agents, which is expected to enhance its long-term value [1].