2024 年 8 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 零售超预期缓解衰退担忧 7月零售环比增速大幅反弹并超预期，首次领取失业金人数降至 7月以来低位， 某零售超市龙头公司上调全年业绩指引，显示美国消费和就业仍有韧性。市场 对美国衰退风险担忧大幅缓解，美债收益率、美元指数和美股均显著回升。美 国经济从过去两年过热状态逐步放缓，但仍稳健扩张，上半年经济增速趋近潜 在增速，非农就业稳步增长，通胀大幅下降但仍高于目标水平，尤其是服务通 胀仍超过4%。考虑到实际利率升至历史高位、失业率升至自然均衡水平和货币 政策时滞，美联储将很快在 9 月开启降息。但由于经济和通胀仍未大幅冷却， 我们认为美联储实施非常规紧急降息或大幅降息的可能性较小。我们维持今年 两次降息合计 50 个基点和明年 4 次降息合计 100 个基点的预测。 零售增速大超预期，汽车销售低位反弹。7 月零售和食品服务销售季调后环 比增速从 6 月的-0.2 反弹至 1%，大幅超出市场预期的 0.4%。6 月环比增速 从初值的 0%下调至-0.2%，连续 2 月初值下修。分品类来看，汽车及零部件 销售从 6 月的-3.4%大幅 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for ZTE, with an adjusted target price of RMB32.86, reflecting a potential upside of 26.2% from the current price of RMB26.04 [2][3]. Core Insights - ZTE reported mixed results for 1H24, with revenue increasing by 2.9% YoY to RMB62.5 billion and net profit growing by 4.8% YoY to RMB5.7 billion. The carrier business faced challenges due to declining capex from domestic telecom companies, while non-carrier segments showed strong growth [2][3]. - The carrier segment's revenue fell by 8.6% YoY to RMB37.3 billion, primarily due to reduced spending from domestic telecoms as the 5G network build-out reached significant milestones. However, the gross profit margin (GPM) for the carrier segment remained robust at 54.3% [2][3]. - Non-carrier businesses, particularly in consumer and government/enterprise segments, experienced double-digit growth, with increases of 14.3% and 56.1% YoY, respectively. This growth was driven by strong demand in the FTTR market and recovering consumer electronics demand [2][3]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB130.034 billion, reflecting a 4.7% YoY growth, while net profit is expected to reach RMB10.478 billion, a 12.4% increase YoY. The gross margin is anticipated to be 39.8% [3][6]. - The report revises down revenue forecasts by 3% for FY24 and 2% for FY25 due to ongoing headwinds in the domestic telecom market, particularly in the RAN business. Net profit forecasts were also trimmed by 3% for FY24 and 7% for FY25, although this was partially offset by improved operating efficiency [2][6]. - The earnings summary indicates a stable GPM of 40.5% in 1H24, compared to 41.5% in FY23, while the net profit margin (NPM) improved to 9.4% in 2Q24 [2][3][6].

19 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Li Ning (2331 HK) We see long-term value but short-term risks In the short run, we are still quite cautious about Li Ning in 2H24E, because of: 1) risks of greater retail discounts or promotion, 2) risks of trade fair orders adjustments, 3) unfavorable channel mix and operating deleverage and 4) relatively fixed opex. However, from the long run prospective, we can still see the value in Li Ning, esp. when we consider its ex-cash ...

19 Aug 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中国虹桥 （ 1378 香港 ） 1H24 净利润同比 + 2.7 倍 ， 超预期 鸿桥的净利润达到人民币91.6亿元（同比增长270%），这比6月预估的增长220%要好。若排 除可转换债券（CB）的公允价值损失，核心净利润甚至会更高，达到人民币105亿元（同比增 长330%）。强劲的利润增长主要得益于铝（Al）和氧化铝的单位毛利率超预期的扩张：铝的 单位毛利率从每吨人民币4277元同比增长2倍至每吨人民币4277元，氧化铝的单位毛利率则 从每吨人民币748元同比增长230%至每吨人民币748元。鸿桥提议的中期股息为每股港币 0.59元，代表约57%的派息比率。最新的上海铝价（含增值税）从8月初的每吨人民币18835 元反弹至每吨人民币19310元。我们认为近期股价回调是一个买入机会。我们预计每1%的铝 价格上涨将提升鸿桥的盈利约4%，当前价格提供了超过8%的吸引人收益。基于2024年的市 盈率9.8倍的评估，我们的目标价保持不变，为港币17.9元。维持评级。BUY. 铝合金产品 （ 1H24 占收入的 67% ） ：上半年该部门收入同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$10.80, representing an 84.9% upside from the current price of HK$5.84 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 11.9% year-on-year for 1H24, down from 16.8% in 1H23, attributed to extended transaction cycles and macroeconomic headwinds affecting small and micro enterprises [2]. - The net loss for 1H24 was RMB 218 million, a 23% decrease year-on-year, indicating a commitment to improving operational efficiency [2]. - The company's core SaaS product, Galaxy, showed a healthy annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 24% in 1H24, although this was a decline from 29% in 1H23 [2]. - Cloud revenue grew by 17.2% year-on-year, reaching RMB 2.4 billion, accounting for 83.2% of total revenue, up from 79.5% in 1H23 [2]. - The company expects revenue growth to accelerate to 16% in 2H24, despite a 4% downward revision in the 2024 revenue forecast [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 6.475 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth [3][4]. - The net profit is expected to improve significantly, with a forecasted loss of only RMB 11.5 million for FY24E, compared to a loss of RMB 209.9 million in FY23A [3][4]. - Gross profit margin is projected to be 64.9% for FY24E, slightly improving from 64.5% in FY23A [4][5]. - Operating cash flow (OCF) guidance for 2024 remains at RMB 900 million, indicating confidence in operational efficiency improvements [2]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from large enterprises grew by 38.9% year-on-year in 1H24, indicating stable demand despite longer transaction cycles [2]. - The Galaxy product line generated RMB 1.1 billion in revenue for 1H24, marking a 14.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The contribution of cloud revenue continues to rise, with a significant increase in the share of total revenue [2]. Market Position and Outlook - The management remains optimistic about the recovery of demand, particularly for small enterprises, and anticipates a gradual improvement in contract values and transaction cycles [2]. - The company signed 275 new customers for its C&C business in 1H24, emphasizing the solid expansion trajectory of its lifetime contract value (LTCV) [2].

19 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update RemeGen (9995 HK) Strong sales performance in 2Q In 2Q24, RemeGen recorded strong product sales, with revenue reaching RMB411mn (+77% YoY), mainly from the product sales of RC18 and RC48, compared to RMB330mn in 1Q24 (+24% QoQ) and RMB254mn in 2Q23 (+62% YoY). The total product sales were RMB729mn in 1H24 (+75% YoY), representing approximately 47% of our previous FY24 estimate, largely in line with our expectations. We are reass ...

19 Aug 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中兴通讯 (000063 CH) 混合 1H24 结果 中兴通讯宣布了2024年半年度结果。收入较上年同期增长2.9%，至人民币625亿元，净利润 则增长4.8%，至57亿元。尽管国内电信运营商对中兴通讯的电信业务面临资本支出下滑的逆 风，但非电信业务实现了两位数的增长（消费者和政府/企业部门分别同比增长14.3%和 56.1%）。按季度来看，第二季度的收入较上年同期增长1.1% / 季比增长4.4%，净利润增长 5.7% / 季比增长9.1%。毛利率环比下降至39%，主要由于不利的产品组合（即高利润率的电 信部门贡献减少）。运营成本优化使得2024年第二季度的净利润率环比改善至9.4%（相比第 一季度和2023财年的9% / 7.5%）。展望未来，我们认为非电信业务将维持两位数的增长，这 将抵消电信业务的疲软。该股目前市盈率为 11.9 倍 2024E ， 维持买入 ， 调整后 TP 为 32.86 元。 在面对国内电信公司对资本支出的严格控制以及中国5G网络建设已取得显著进展的背景 下，运营商部门面临逆风。预计到2024年，中国电信 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 49.8, based on 19x 2024 forecasted P/E [1][2] Core Views - Strong H1 2024 performance with revenue up 42.1% YoY to RMB 291 million and net profit up 46.3% YoY to RMB 67 million [1] - Revenue growth driven by expanded product portfolio (over 500 models by H1 2024), deepened customer relationships, and distribution network expansion [1] - Gross margin declined to 51.3% in H1 2024 due to increased inventory write-down provisions, but core gross margin remained stable at 55.2% [1] - Net margin improved to 23.1% in H1 2024, compared to 22.4% in H1 2023 and 23.5% in 2023 [1] - Revenue expected to grow at 40.2% and 37.8% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, driven by product diversification and strong distributor relationships [2] Financial Performance - Revenue CAGR of 73.6% from 2020 to 2023, with product portfolio expanding from 8 models in 2020 to over 500 models by H1 2024 [2] - 90% of H1 2024 revenue came from distributors, up from 87.5% in 2023 [2] - Forecasted revenue for 2024 and 2025 at RMB 650 million and RMB 896 million, respectively, with net profit of RMB 146 million and RMB 210 million [3][8] - Gross margin expected to stabilize at 53%-55% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Valuation - Current 2024 and 2025 P/E ratios at 10x and 7x, respectively, considered highly attractive [2] - Target price implies a potential upside of 102.4% from the current price of HKD 24.6 [4] Industry and Market Position - Leading supplier of industrial-grade analog IC patterned wafers in China with proprietary EDA software and reusable IP library [1] - Strong R&D capabilities and execution by management team evidenced by rapid product portfolio expansion [2] Financial Projections - Forecasted sales revenue for 2024 and 2025 at RMB 650 million and RMB 896 million, with net profit of RMB 146 million and RMB 210 million [3][8] - Operating profit expected to grow at 36.1% and 42.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively [3] - ROE projected to improve from 16.1% in 2024 to 22.6% in 2026 [3]

19 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Net profit 1H24 +2.7x YoY, beat expectations Hongqiao's net profit came in at RMB9.16bn (+2.7x YoY), which is better than the pre-announced profit growth of 2.2x in Jun. Excluding the fair value loss of convertible bonds (CB), the core net profit would be even higher at RMB10.5bn (+3.3x YoY). The strong profit growth was driven by higher-than-expected unit gross margin expansion for both aluminum (Al) (+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Kingdee with a target price lowered to HK$10.80 per share from HK$15.50, indicating an upside potential of 84.9% from the current price of HK$5.84 [3]. Core Insights - Kingdee's revenue for 1H24 increased by 11.9% YoY to RMB2.87 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus estimates, attributed to a lengthened deal cycle and macroeconomic challenges affecting small and micro enterprises [2]. - The net loss for 1H24 was RMB218 million, representing a 23% YoY reduction and 20% narrower than consensus estimates, showcasing Kingdee's focus on improving operational efficiency [2]. - The company's core SaaS product, Galaxy, demonstrated healthy growth with a 24% YoY increase in subscription ARR in 1H24, although the dollar retention rate slightly decreased to 95% [2]. - Kingdee's cloud revenue grew by 17.2% YoY to RMB2.4 billion, accounting for 83.2% of total revenue, while license ERP revenue declined by 8.8% YoY [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E have been lowered by 4% to RMB6.475 billion, with expectations for 2H24 revenue growth to reaccelerate to 16% [2][6]. - The gross profit margin improved to 63.2% in 1H24, up 1.3 percentage points YoY, driven by increased cloud revenue contribution [2]. - Kingdee's operating loss is projected to narrow, with a forecasted net profit of RMB240.6 million in FY25E and RMB466.8 million in FY26E [5][9]. Customer and Market Dynamics - Kingdee signed 275 new customers for its Cosmic & Constellation (C&C) business in 1H24, with revenue growth of 38.9% YoY [2]. - The lifetime contract value (LTCV) for C&C customers has shown a solid expansion trajectory, indicating strong demand for localized software solutions [2]. - Management's guidance remains optimistic for operational cash flow (OCF) growth, targeting RMB900 million for 2024, despite a slower overall revenue growth pace [2].