6月30日北京经信局发布关于对《北京市自动驾驶汽车条例(征求意见稿)》公开征集意见的公告,推动市场 对自动驾驶相关标的的投资情绪提升。我们对百度的萝卜快跑(Apollo Go)业务的单位经济模型(UE)进行 情景分析,同时对百度萝卜快跑业务在武汉地区的运营情况进行情景分析,认为全无人自动驾驶业务的持续渗 透或有望推动业务UE显著提升,未来单车硬件成本进一步下探、单均打车距离提升及补贴优化、云代驾驾驶人 员覆盖车辆范围提升及成本优化均有望助推UE进一步提升。在2024年4月武汉萝卜快跑业务超过70%的订单 已由全无人车辆完成的情况下,管理层既定的2024年年末盈亏平衡的目标有望达成。我们认为,尽管自动驾驶 的商业化落地受一城一策影响,推进步调有所差异,但城市维度的监管指引陆续明晰有助推动自动驾驶行业发 展进一步提速,而具备技术和有效数据积累的公司有望持续受益。我们维持对于百度基于分部估值法183.0美 元的目标价和"买入"评级。 监管法规陆续落地或助推自动驾驶行业发展进一步提速。 6月30日北京市经信局发布关于对《北京市自动驾驶 汽车条例(征求意见稿)》公开征集意见的公告,提及拟支持自动驾驶汽车用于城市公共电汽 ...

2024 年 7 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 百度 (BIDU US) 全无人自动驾驶持续推进或有望显著推动 UE 提升 6 月 30 日北京经信局发布关于对《北京市自动驾驶汽车条例(征求意见稿)》 公开征集意见的公告,推动市场对自动驾驶相关标的的投资情绪提升。我们对 百度的萝卜快跑(Apollo Go)业务的单位经济模型(UE)进行情景分析,同时 对百度萝卜快跑业务在武汉地区的运营情况进行情景分析,认为全无人自动驾 驶业务的持续渗透或有望推动业务 UE 显著提升,未来单车硬件成本进一步下 探、单均打车距离提升及补贴优化、云代驾驾驶人员覆盖车辆范围提升及成本 优化均有望助推 UE 进一步提升。在 2024 年 4 月武汉萝卜快跑业务超过 70%的 订单已由全无人车辆完成的情况下,管理层既定的 2024 年年末盈亏平衡的目标 有望达成。我们认为,尽管自动驾驶的商业化落地受一城一策影响,推进步调 有所差异,但城市维度的监管指引陆续明晰有助推动自动驾驶行业发展进一步 提速,而具备技术和有效数据积累的公司有望持续受益。我们维持对于百度基 于分部估值法 183.0 美元的目标价和"买入" ...

2024 年 7 月 9 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 安踏体育 ( 2020 香港 ) 在连续 2Q24 之后 , 对 FY24E 保持谨慎 第二季度的零售销售增长大致一致 ( 安踏强劲,而 FILA 疲软 ),但弹性零售折扣给我们留 下了深刻的印象 ( 安踏在在线渠道折扣方面仍取得了同比增长 ) 。展望未来,我们仍然认为 销售增长可能会略有改善。一方面,我们对安踏的新产品、新店铺形式和品牌建设市场等更有 信心。但另一方面,我们对 FILA 变得更加谨慎。然而,总而言之,FY24E 的盈利能力仍然不 错,因此我们并不过度担心底线。安踏是我们在该行业的首选,这要归功于其弹性表现和获得 市场份额的能力。 FY24E 指导保持不变 , 但我们对安踏比 FILA 更有信心。管理层维持安踏和 FILA 零售 销售增长 10% - 15% 的指导。但是,我们对安踏更有信心,并预计其销售增长将在 2H24E 加速至 10 % 以上的水平,受以下支持 : 1 ) 令人兴奋的新产品线 ( 奥运相关 产品 ,Kyrie Irvig 的产品以及物有所值的产品 ),2 ) 商店扩张以进一步细分客户 ( Se ...

MN 9 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Anta Sports (2020 HK) Stay cautious about FY24E after an inline 2Q24 Retail sales growth in 2Q24 was roughly inline (Anta was strong while FILA was weak), but we are impressed by the resilient retail discounts (Anta still managed to have YoY improvement on discounts on online channel). Going forward in 2H24E, we still think sales growth could improve slightly. On one hand, we are more confident about Anta's new products, new s ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for FIT Hon Teng, with a target price (TP) raised to HK$4.24 based on a rolled-over 13x FY25E P/E, up from the previous 11x P/E [2][13]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng has announced a positive profit alert for 1H24, projecting earnings between US$28-33 million, a significant recovery from a net loss of US$9 million in 1H23, primarily driven by stronger demand in the computing and networking segments [2][7]. - The stock price has faced pressure due to concerns regarding the pace of earnings recovery in 2024 and increased operating expenses (OPEX) related to AirPods and Voltaira businesses. However, the report suggests that the recent stock correction is overdone, and the company is expected to benefit from multiple product launches and operating leverage in the second half of 2024 [2][8]. - The management has maintained a core operating profit margin (OPM) estimate of 5.5% for FY24, up from 4.9% in 2023, indicating improved operational efficiency [2][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from US$4,196 million in FY23 to US$5,108 million in FY24, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.8%. This growth is expected to continue, reaching US$6,332 million in FY25 and US$7,497 million in FY26 [3][16]. - Net profit is forecasted to rebound significantly, from US$131.8 million in FY23 to US$194.3 million in FY24, representing a 47.4% year-on-year increase. The net profit is expected to further rise to US$298.3 million in FY25 and US$373.4 million in FY26 [3][16]. - The report revises FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates upward by 12% and 10%, respectively, reflecting stronger demand for AI servers and progress in AirPods production [2][8]. Market Outlook - The management has expressed optimism regarding the outlook for FY24, driven by recovery in the PC market, networking demand, and AirPods shipments. The company anticipates a 48% and 54% year-on-year increase in net profit for FY24 and FY25, respectively [2][8]. - Near-term catalysts include the progress of AirPods shipments, potential auto mergers and acquisitions, and updates on AI server products, which are expected to enhance earnings visibility [2][13].

2024 年 7 月 9 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 FIT Hon Teng ( 6088 香港 ) 股票压力过头了 ; 提高对 AirPods / AI 服务器上涨的预 期 FIT Ho Teg 宣布 2016 年上半年收益为 28 - 3, 300 万美元 ( 而上半年为 900 万美元的净亏 损 ),主要是由更强大的计算 ( PC ) / 网络 ( 服务器 ) 部门和更好的运营效率推动。然 而,股价受到 2024 年盈利复苏速度以及 AirPods 和 Voltaira 业务更高 OPEX 的质疑的压力 。我们是疲软的买家,考虑到下半年的 2H24E 有多个产品发布和 2H24E 的运营杠杆。我们 将 FY25 / 26E 每股收益估计上调 12% / 10%,以反映更好的 AI 服务器需求和 AirPods 进展 。我们将 TP 上调至 4.24 港元,基于 2012 财年的 13 倍市盈率 ( 与之前的 11 倍市盈率相比 ),用于多产品周期和更高的收益可见性。我们认为,最近的股票调整过度了。重申购买。 在更强劲的 PC / 服务器需求下 , 1H24 的积极警报 , 但 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Yancoal Australia with a revised target price (TP) of HK$45, up from HK$40, indicating a potential upside of 17.3% from the current price of HK$38.35 [2][12]. Core Insights - The suspension of the Grosvenor metallurgical coal mine due to a fire incident is expected to last several months, leading to a reduction in global metallurgical coal export volume by approximately 0.8%. This situation is anticipated to drive up met coal prices, positively impacting Yancoal's average selling price (ASP) in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 [2]. - The earnings forecast for Yancoal has been revised upwards by 7% for 2024 and 9% for 2025, reflecting the expected increase in ASP due to higher coal prices [2]. - The report highlights that Yancoal is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.5x for 2024E and offers a yield of 7.7%, making it attractive for investors seeking safety and high dividends [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at AUD 7,133 million, down 8.3% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be AUD 1,477.1 million, a decline of 18.8% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is estimated at AUD 1.12, with a P/E ratio of 6.5x and a return on equity (ROE) of 16.8% [3]. - The company’s net gearing is projected to improve to -25.5% in FY24E, indicating a strong balance sheet position [3]. Market and Production Insights - The report notes that the benchmark semi-soft coking coal price has dropped approximately 28% year-on-year to US$152 per tonne in Q1 2024, but is expected to stabilize following the Grosvenor incident [2]. - Yancoal's total marketable coal production for 2024E is estimated at 49.5 million tonnes, with a sales volume of 37.3 million tonnes, including 32.1 million tonnes of thermal coal and 5.2 million tonnes of metallurgical coal [5][6]. - The average selling price for thermal coal is projected to be AUD 170 per tonne, while metallurgical coal is expected to average AUD 270 per tonne in FY24E [5]. Valuation and Assumptions - The valuation is based on net present value (NPV) calculated from future cash flows of reserves, with long-term price assumptions for thermal and metallurgical coal set at AUD 130/t and AUD 200/t respectively starting in 2027E [12]. - The report assumes a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.9% and an AUD/HKD exchange rate of HK$5.27 [12]. Share Performance - Yancoal's share price has shown significant performance, with a 1-month increase of 18.0% and a 3-month increase of 42.8% [3]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$50,638.9 million, with an average turnover of HK$69.9 million over the past three months [3]. Peer Comparison - Yancoal's P/E ratio of 6.5x for FY24E is competitive compared to peers, with Whitehaven Coal at 9.0x and New Hope Corporation at 8.0x [14]. - The dividend yield for Yancoal is projected at 7.7%, which is attractive compared to the average yield of 5.0% for its peers [14].

2024 年 7 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 WAIC 大会:聚焦产业发展、科学前沿、生态治理 2024 年世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议于 7 月 4 日至 6 日召 开,会议聚焦产业发展、科学前沿、及生态治理。我们梳理了覆盖的主要互联 网和软件公司动态,要点纪要:1)阿里巴巴:大模型需求量维持火热,近 2 个 月,通义开源模型下载量突破 2,000 万,大模型平台百炼客户数增长至 23 万、 涨幅超过 150%;2)百度:应用端需求量稳步提升,文心一言日均调用量已经 从两个月前的 2 亿增长至现在的 5 亿;3)腾讯:围绕大模型的全链路产品矩阵 实现多项升级,混元大模型参数量达到万亿,Tokens 数超 7 万亿,单日调用次 数超过 3 亿;4)商汤:大模型"日日新 5.5"实现多项能力提升,并推出流式多 模态交互大模型"日日新 5o",对标 GPT-4o。我们仍看好具备坚实技术实力、 具备广泛应用场景的互联网公司在 AI 大模型未来商业化发展变现中的潜力,且 应用端对大模型调用及使用需求的持续起量或有望支撑互联网公司云业务的发 展。 阿里巴巴:通义开源模型下载 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The U.S. economy is showing signs of continued slowdown, with June non-farm payrolls exceeding market expectations but significantly lower than the previous month, indicating a cooling labor market [2][7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, the highest since 2022, suggesting a potential recession warning as per Sahm's Rule [2][7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September and December, with a total reduction of 50 basis points for the year and an additional 100 basis points in the following year [2][7] Group 2: Employment Trends - June saw an addition of 206,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 190,000, but revisions for April and May showed significant downward adjustments [2][4] - The average monthly non-farm job additions dropped from 267,000 in Q1 to 177,000 in Q2, indicating a marked slowdown in job growth [2][4] - The private sector added 136,000 jobs in June, down from 193,000 in May, with notable declines in retail and leisure sectors [2][4] Group 3: Wage and Inflation Dynamics - Wage growth is slowing, with private sector wage growth falling to 3.86% year-on-year, the lowest since May 2021, aligning closer to the 2% inflation target [2][7] - Core service inflation is expected to continue its downward trend, supported by the cooling wage growth and balanced labor supply and demand [2][7] - CPI rent inflation still has room to decline compared to market rent inflation, indicating potential further easing in inflationary pressures [2][7]

2024 年 7 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 WAIC 大会:聚焦产业发展、科学前沿、生态治理 2024 年世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议于 7 月 4 日至 6 日召 开,会议聚焦产业发展、科学前沿、及生态治理。我们梳理了覆盖的主要互联 网和软件公司动态,要点纪要:1)阿里巴巴:大模型需求量维持火热,近 2 个 月,通义开源模型下载量突破 2,000 万,大模型平台百炼客户数增长至 23 万、 涨幅超过 150%;2)百度:应用端需求量稳步提升,文心一言日均调用量已经 从两个月前的 2 亿增长至现在的 5 亿;3)腾讯:围绕大模型的全链路产品矩阵 实现多项升级,混元大模型参数量达到万亿,Tokens 数超 7 万亿,单日调用次 数超过 3 亿;4)商汤:大模型"日日新 5.5"实现多项能力提升,并推出流式多 模态交互大模型"日日新 5o",对标 GPT-4o。我们仍看好具备坚实技术实力、 具备广泛应用场景的互联网公司在 AI 大模型未来商业化发展变现中的潜力,且 应用端对大模型调用及使用需求的持续起量或有望支撑互联网公司云业务的发 展。 阿里巴巴:通义开源模型下载 ...