Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that AI will drive China's economic transition from "large country scale advantage" to "global collaborative advantage" by 2035, leveraging its unique capabilities in knowledge reorganization and system optimization [5][4][3] - The current economic challenges include weakened demand-side momentum and supply-side efficiency bottlenecks, with fixed asset investment growth slowing and consumption upgrade processes remaining incomplete [2][3] Group 2: China Guangke (003816) - In 2024, China Guangke achieved revenue of 868.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a net profit of 108.14 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.8% increase [18][19] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.95 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 44.36% [18] - The upcoming commissioning of the Huizhou Unit 1 is expected to support the company's performance in 2025 [22][21] Group 3:招商银行 (600036) - In 2024, the bank's revenue decreased by 0.48% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 1.22%, indicating an improvement compared to previous quarters [11][7] - The bank's net interest margin was 1.98%, with a decrease in interest income but an increase in non-interest income driven by wealth management and other services [7][8] - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.95% [9] Group 4: 中裕科技 (871694) - 中裕科技 reported a revenue of 59.93 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 10.23%, primarily due to reduced orders from the US and Middle East markets [25] - The company maintains a strong market position in fluid transmission hoses, with plans to expand into new product areas and applications [27][26] Group 5: 晨光股份 (603899) - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 242.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%, while net profit decreased by 8.58% [29][30] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and expanding its online and overseas business [31][30] Group 6: 复星医药 (600196) - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 410.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.80%, but net profit increased by 16.08% [35][36] - The company is focusing on innovation in pharmaceuticals and high-value medical devices, with significant growth in high-margin products [36][38]

Economic Growth and Influence - The share of emerging markets and developing countries in global GDP increased from 21.02% in 2000 to 41.23% in 2024, projected to reach 43.71% by 2029[25] - BRICS countries' GDP has surpassed that of the G7, becoming a significant pillar of the global economy[25] - ASEAN countries attracted 17% of global foreign direct investment in 2023, with inflows reaching $230 billion, a 104.33% increase since 2014[34] Global South's Role in Governance - The Global South is transitioning from passive participants to active drivers in global governance, advocating for a multipolar world[5] - The 2023 Munich Security Conference highlighted the Global South's increasing visibility, mentioning it 55 times in its report[18] - The G20 summit in 2023 included the African Union as a member, showcasing the Global South's growing influence in international forums[44] Financial System Transformation - The IMF's share structure adjustments have allocated 6% of its shares to emerging economies, enhancing their governance voice[47] - The inclusion of the Chinese yuan in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket marked a significant elevation of the Global South's status in the global financial system[49] - The Global South is exploring alternative payment systems to reduce reliance on the US dollar, reflecting a shift in international monetary dynamics[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The company is continuously optimizing its traditional core business layout, adjusting product structure, and enhancing channel efficiency. The retail large store business is steadily expanding, and the office direct sales business is deepening, which is expected to sustain growth in the future [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.73, 1.95, and 2.19 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17X, 15X, and 14X [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 24,228.25 million yuan - 2025E: 27,416.61 million yuan (growth of 13.16%) - 2026E: 30,666.37 million yuan (growth of 11.85%) - 2027E: 34,017.35 million yuan (growth of 10.93%) [7][9] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 1,395.84 million yuan - 2025E: 1,599.00 million yuan (growth of 14.55%) - 2026E: 1,805.23 million yuan (growth of 12.90%) - 2027E: 2,024.20 million yuan (growth of 12.13%) [7][9] - **Gross Margin**: - 2024A: 18.90% - 2025E: 18.86% - 2026E: 18.67% - 2027E: 18.43% [7][9] - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 15.67% in 2024A to 18.40% in 2027E [9]. - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is expected to rise from 43.11% in 2024A to 45.23% in 2027E [9]. Market Data - The company's stock code is 603899.SH, with a closing price of 30.13 yuan and a market capitalization of 27.835 billion yuan as of March 26, 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (003816.SZ) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 86.804 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.814 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.8% [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming commissioning of the Huizhou Unit 1, which is anticipated to support performance in 2025 [3] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 10.440 billion yuan, 11.126 billion yuan, and 12.259 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.09x, 16.98x, and 15.41x [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.534 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 19.0% to 830 million yuan [3] - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 was 0.416 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 1.57% year-on-year [3] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 38.016 billion yuan, an increase of 14.78% year-on-year [3] Operational Highlights - The total electricity generation for 2024 was 1,908.07 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.08%, primarily due to the commissioning of the Fangchenggang Unit 4 and the resumption of operations at Taishan Unit 1 [3] - The company plans to conduct 19 refueling overhauls in 2025, including two ten-year overhauls and one first-time overhaul [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to slightly decline to 86.782 billion yuan in 2025, followed by growth to 92.257 billion yuan in 2026 and 99.473 billion yuan in 2027 [4][6] - The gross margin is expected to decrease to 31.45% in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 31.80% by 2027 [6]

Profit Analysis - In January-February 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 910.99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous value of -3.3%[1] - Operating revenue increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up from the previous value of 2.1%[1] - Industrial added value grew by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by exports, new consumption policies, and AI[2] Price and Cost Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, a slight improvement from -2.3%[2] - The operating profit margin was 4.53%, down by 0.17 percentage points from the previous value of 0.37 percentage points[2] - The cost per CNY 100 of operating revenue was CNY 85.11, an increase of CNY 0.11 year-on-year[2] Inventory and Receivables - Finished goods inventory reached CNY 6.37 trillion, growing by 4.2% year-on-year, up from 3.3%[2] - Accounts receivable increased by 9.2% year-on-year, with an average collection period of 74.9 days, up by 4.5 days[2] Sector Performance - Equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace increasing by 88.8% and automotive manufacturing by 11.7%[2] - Consumer manufacturing sectors, such as computer electronics and electrical machinery, experienced profit declines of 9.4% and 2.4% respectively[2] Future Outlook - Industrial profit recovery faces challenges, including low production-sales ratios and insufficient final demand, particularly in export-oriented sectors[2] - The effectiveness of supply-side reforms and the implementation of demand policies remain uncertain[2]

2025 年 3 月 27 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 布油五连涨,原油创本月内新高, 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 电子:行业温和复苏,关注 AI 与终端硬件融合。2025年第一季度,AI 终端 创新呈现高性能计算、轻量化设计、场景多元化三大特点。CES 2025 成为技 术落地的核心舞台,推动 AI 从云端向端侧渗透,同时加速具身智能、自动驾 驶等领域的商业化进程。未来,AI 与终端硬件的深度融合将重塑消费电子生 态,进一步拓展人机协作的边界。 比亚迪 (002594):24年业绩表现靓丽,25年有望迎量、价、利齐升。技术 ● 实力提升+高端化进度加速+出口景气度延续三轮驱动,2025年公司有望迎来 量、价、利齐升：我们认为 2025年公司业绩将迎来三重驱动："智驾平权" &超级快充技术提升全系产品综合竞争力;高端新品汉 L、唐 L、腾势 N9 上 市快速丰富高 ...

⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ | 市场数据 | 2025-3-26 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 603899.SH | | A 股收盘价(元) | 30.13 | | 上证指数 | 3,368.70 | | 总股本(万股) | 92,383 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 92,383 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 278.35 | -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 晨光股份 沪深300 公司点评报告 · 轻工行业 国银河证券|CGS 金融客户方面,新入围华夏银行、泰康保险和阳光保险等项目,进一步扩大在 金融领域的优势。 MRO 工业品方面,对已合作项目做到持续深挖,在国家电投、三峡集团、中 国有色和电气装备等多个项目上拓宽新的业务边界。 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 北证50 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 资料来源：iFinD,中国银河证券研究院 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.03.26) ■A股算数平均涨跌幅 ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 5 4 3 2 ** l 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 IC PH: July Cho 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.03.26) ■ 成交金额（合计/亿元) -换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 02-18 02-20 02-24 02-26 02-28 03-04 03-12 03-14 02-10 02-14 03-06 03-10 )3-26 02-06 02-12 03-18 01-2 河证券|CGS 北交所日报 表1：涨幅前十股票的市场数据（2025.03.26/财务数 ...

请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 全景东盟月报 国银河证券|CGS 东风风行 2025 年第 1 期: CAFTA3.0 有望进一步深化中国东盟战略关系 首席经济学家：章俊 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 CAFTA3.0 有望进一步深化中国东盟战略关系 核心观点 2025 年《政府工作报告》提出深化多双边和区域经济合作,加快推动签署中 国-东盟自贸区 3.0 版升级协定(CAFTA 3.0),有助于促进区域协同高质量发 展。同时,中国企业通过投资、技术合作等方式,助力东盟产业升级与经济多 元化,产生了积极的外溢效应和示范效应。 2025年3月26日 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 ☎：010-8092 8096 网: zhangjun_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070003 研究助理 刘小逸 风险提示 1. 政策理解不到位的风险 2. 国内政策落实不及预期的风险 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 ● 中国-东盟自贸区 3.0升级,战略伙伴关系进一步深化:东盟长期以来是中国对外贸 易的重要伙伴。2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD (stock code: 002594.SZ) [1][6]. Core Views - BYD's performance in 2024 was strong, with a revenue of 777.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40.25 billion yuan, up 34.00% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company is expected to see simultaneous growth in volume, price, and profit in 2025, driven by advancements in technology, new high-end product launches, and continued expansion in overseas markets [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, BYD achieved a total vehicle sales volume of 4.27 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41.26%, with a single vehicle average price of 144,500 yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross margin for the automotive business improved to 22.31%, a year-on-year increase of 1.29 percentage points, primarily due to the growth in export sales and the increase in high-end brand sales [3][4]. - R&D expenses rose by 34.42% to 53.20 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing its technological capabilities [3][4]. Financial Forecast Summary - For 2025, BYD is projected to achieve revenues of 991.21 billion yuan and a net profit of 54.56 billion yuan, with an EPS of 17.95 yuan [5][6]. - The revenue growth rate is expected to be 27.55%, with a net profit growth rate of 35.54% [5][8]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 20.15% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][8].