Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with a focus on the integration of AI and terminal hardware. The first quarter of 2025 has seen innovations in AI terminals characterized by high-performance computing, lightweight design, and diverse applications. The CES 2025 has become a core stage for technology implementation, promoting the penetration of AI from the cloud to the edge, and accelerating the commercialization of embodied intelligence and autonomous driving [1][26] Industry Data Tracking - **Smartphones**: In 2024, global smartphone shipments are expected to reach approximately 1.22 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 7%, ending a two-year decline, driven by a recovery in demand from emerging markets and policy incentives [3] - **PCs**: Global PC shipments are projected to show a mild recovery in 2024, with total shipments of 256 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [3][9] - **Tablets**: Total tablet shipments in 2024 are expected to reach 147.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, indicating a robust recovery compared to 2023 [3][10] - **Wearable Devices**: Global shipments of wearable devices are anticipated to reach 193 million units in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 4%, continuing a recovery trend for two consecutive years [3] - **TWS Earbuds**: In 2024, global TWS earbud shipments are expected to reach 330 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13%, ending a previous slowdown in growth [3][11] - **AI Glasses**: Global sales of AI smart glasses are projected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, a staggering year-on-year growth of 533%, with RayBan Meta accounting for 1.42 million units sold [3][13] Industry News - **Policy Support**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have proposed subsidies for consumers purchasing smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, providing 15% of the product price as a subsidy, capped at 500 yuan per item [3][21] - **Product Launches**: The first quarter of 2025 has seen the launch of several new products in the consumer electronics sector driven by AI technology, including smart glasses, AI PCs, and AI headphones [3] Sector Tracking - **Recent Performance**: Over the past month, the consumer electronics index has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.96 percentage points, while outperforming the electronics index by 0.04 percentage points. The consumer electronics index has seen a decline of 1.81%, while the electronics index has decreased by 1.85%, and the CSI 300 index has increased by 1.15% [3][24] - **Annual Performance**: Over the past year, the consumer electronics index has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 15.06 percentage points but underperformed the electronics index by 8.05 percentage points, with the consumer electronics index showing a growth of 26.06% [3][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are innovating in AI terminal technology, including Crystal Optoelectronics, Tengjing Technology, Weir Shares, Yidao Information, Tianjian Shares, Jiahe Intelligent, Goer Technology, Lingyi Zhi Zao, and Changying Precision [1][26]

Market Overview - The STAR Market index fell by 3.49% last week, underperforming compared to the ChiNext and Shanghai-Shenzhen main boards[5] - The average daily trading volume decreased to approximately CNY 1,094.89 billion, down from CNY 1,286.15 billion the previous week[5] - As of March 21, 2025, there are 585 listed companies on the STAR Market with a total market capitalization of CNY 79,236.57 billion[5] Valuation Metrics - The overall PE (TTM) of the STAR Market is approximately 49.70, which is higher than other major boards[5] - The PE of the STAR 50 index is about 55.12, indicating a valuation premium over the overall STAR Market[5] - The electronic industry has the highest average PE at 88.54, while the household appliances sector has the lowest at 15.35[5] Sector Performance - The black metal industry saw the largest weekly gain of +13.34%, while the computer industry experienced the largest decline of -6.46%[5] - Notable individual stock performances include Yunlu Co. (+26.11%) and Gai Lun Electronics (+24.96%), while Xun Jie Xing saw a significant drop of -16.76%[5] NVIDIA's AI Developments - NVIDIA announced the next-generation AI chip Rubin and the AI supercomputer DGX Station at the GTC 2025 conference[5] - The Rubin chip will have a bandwidth of 75TB and a performance that is 3.3 times greater than the previous generation, set to launch in the second half of 2026[5] - The DGX Station will feature a GB300 super chip with an AI computing power of 20,000 TFLOPS, aimed at laboratory and enterprise use[5] Investment Trends - The STAR Market thematic funds underperformed compared to index funds, with the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices declining by -3.72% and -4.41% respectively[5] - The overall trading activity in the STAR Market has decreased, with the average turnover rate at 12.83%, lower than other major boards[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected technological development, supply chain disruptions, and intensified industry competition[5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Jinhe Biological (stock code: 002688.SZ) [2][44]. Core Views - Jinhe Biological is a leading enterprise in the veterinary antibiotic sector, focusing on a dual-driven strategy of chemical drugs and vaccines. The company has expanded its business boundaries from veterinary raw materials to animal vaccines and environmental technology, forming a new business pattern with organic interaction among various segments [4][6][11]. - The company achieved revenue of 2.174 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 2.42%, and 1.065 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, growing by 3.22% year-on-year [4][7]. - The veterinary chemical drug business remains the largest revenue contributor, while the vaccine business is expected to grow significantly as product penetration increases [44]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jinhe Biological was established in 1988 and has become a global leader in animal health. The company went public in 2012 and has since expanded into animal vaccines and environmental technology, creating a comprehensive animal health ecosystem [6][8]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 2.174 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 2.289 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 5.30% [5][45]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 864.6 million yuan in 2023 to 1.8691 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 45.47% [5][44]. Business Segments - The veterinary chemical drug segment generated 1.016 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 3.27%, maintaining stable growth [11][24]. - The veterinary biological products segment achieved revenue of 335 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 1.48% [35]. Growth Drivers - The company is enhancing its production capacity, with a new project expected to add 60,000 tons of chemical drug capacity by October 2024, increasing total production capacity to 115,000 tons [24][29]. - Jinhe Biological is actively expanding its pet business, establishing a subsidiary in Shanghai in 2024, with several products already on the market and more in development [19][24]. Research and Development - The company has invested in R&D, with 74 million yuan spent in 2023, focusing on innovation and product quality improvement [19][24]. - Jinhe Biological has a rich pipeline of over 20 vaccine products in development, including vaccines for pigs and pets, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [40][42].

· 轻工行业 维持评级 AI+玩具,中国玩具的全球竞争力将明显提升:1) 2023-2024年伴随 AI 技 术逐步成熟，市场中 AI+玩具的结合越来越普遍。据 Gartner 预测, 2025 年 年 AI 驱动的玩具和娱乐设备将占据全球玩具市场 15%以上份额。一方面,购 物平台中玩具品类智能化能力相较十年前显著提升,千元以内价格带虽不能 实现具身智能,但语音陪伴、益智对话等功能的 AI 玩具已占据一定市场份额, 实丰文化"AI 魔法星"、奥飞娱乐"AI 喜羊羊"等产品销量表现较优。另一 方面,我们观察到2024年特斯拉/乐森等公司相继推出的机器人玩具,由于具 身智能表现优异,在市场上二手价格都远超发售价格。2) AI+玩具将突出玩 具的制造能力、AI 技术, 由于产品性能的提升,功能的增加,将以全新的产 品形态影响全球玩具市场,中国玩具的新兴品牌市场机会增多。例如在全球彩 电市场份额持续快速提升的 TCL 电子 H,在 2025 年 CES 展上也发布了自己 的智能家居陪伴机器人。TCL 是玩具的新进入者,但在 AI 和制造方面强于玩 具企业,且具有很强的全球化运营能力,在 AI 玩具时代有机会进入市场 ...

Group 1: Economic Cooperation and Trade - The CAFTA 3.0 upgrade is expected to deepen the strategic partnership between China and ASEAN, promoting high-quality regional development[4] - In February 2025, China and ASEAN are anticipated to complete legal reviews and domestic procedures for signing the CAFTA 3.0 upgrade protocol[7] - ASEAN's economic growth is showing divergence, with Singapore's GDP growth at 4.4% in 2024, Malaysia at 5.1%, and Thailand underperforming at 2.5%[7][17][21] Group 2: Market Trends and Policies - Southeast Asian currencies stabilized in February 2025, with some showing appreciation, while stock markets exhibited mixed performance[23] - Indonesia's GDP reached 22,138.96 trillion IDR in 2024, with a per capita GDP of approximately 4,960.3 USD[20] - Malaysia's GDP growth in 2024 was 5.1%, significantly higher than the 3.6% growth in 2023, driven by a 12% increase in investments[19] Group 3: Chinese Enterprises in ASEAN - Chinese companies are accelerating integration into ASEAN supply chains, contributing to industrial upgrades and economic diversification[7] - Notable investments include battery production bases by companies like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. in Indonesia, aligning with local policies[31] - The cultural consumption sector is thriving, with Pop Mart's revenue in Southeast Asia increasing by 478% in the first half of 2024[30] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential misunderstandings of policies, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and international policy challenges[33]

Market Performance - The average daily change for the North Exchange (北证) was significantly positive, with a peak increase of 23.62% for the top-performing stock, Morning Light Cable (晨光电缆) on March 26, 2025[8] - The North Exchange's trading volume reached a total of 600 billion CNY, with an average turnover rate of 16% as of March 26, 2025[7] - The average daily change for the A-share market (沪深300) was also positive, but specific percentage values were not provided in the report[2] Stock Performance - The top ten stocks by increase on March 26, 2025, had market capitalizations ranging from 9.77 billion CNY to 82.22 billion CNY, with the highest PE ratio being 2,134.56 for Jilin Carbon Valley (吉林碳谷)[8][9] - Conversely, the top ten stocks by decrease included a significant drop of 24.86% for Guangdao Digital (广道数字), with a market cap of 9.58 billion CNY[9] Valuation Trends - The report indicates a valuation trend for the North Exchange compared to the Science and Technology Innovation Board (科创板) and the Growth Enterprise Market (创业板), with specific valuation multiples not detailed[10][11] - The PE ratios across various industries on the North Exchange were analyzed, showing a diverse range of valuations[12] Risks and Considerations - The report highlights several risks, including lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[14]

Investment Rating - Maintain rating [1] Core Viewpoints - The integration of AI technology with toys is expected to enhance China's global competitiveness in the toy industry, with AI-driven toys projected to capture over 15% of the global toy market by 2025 according to Gartner [3] - The market for blind box toys is rapidly expanding, with China's blind box market reaching 17.25 billion yuan in 2023 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.2% from 2019 to 2023 [3][7] - The "谷子" (goods) economy is anticipated to grow significantly, with a market size projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41% [12][14] Summary by Sections Section 1:潮玩 (Trendy Toys) - The Z generation is becoming the main consumer force in China, accounting for 18.6% of the total population and 40% of total consumption, with a significant portion of spending directed towards trendy toys [7] - Trendy toys exhibit strong repurchase attributes, with approximately 70% of consumers purchasing specific blind box toys three times or more, and a reported repurchase rate of 43.9% for members of leading brands like 泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) [7][9] Section 2:谷子 (Goods) - The "谷子" economy is rapidly growing, with a projected market size of 1.689 trillion yuan in 2024 and an expected increase to 3.089 trillion yuan by 2029, indicating a CAGR of 12.8% [12][14] - The opening of new "谷子" stores is driving growth, with significant increases in store numbers across various brands [16][17] Section 3: AI+玩具 (AI Toys) - The market for AI toys is expanding, with notable products like 乐森's (Robosen) transforming toys achieving significant sales and market interest, indicating a promising future for AI integration in the toy sector [21][27] - Companies like 特斯拉 (Tesla) are also entering the market with robot action figures, which sold out quickly, demonstrating the high demand for AI-driven toys [27][29] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies benefiting from the growth in trendy toys, "谷子," and AI toys, specifically highlighting 泡泡玛特, 布鲁可, 广博股份, 实丰文化, 名创优品, and TCL Electronics as key players to watch [3]

Macro Insights - The report indicates that the liquidity tightness has passed its peak, but substantial easing may not occur until the second quarter of 2025, with current monetary policy signals being relatively weak [3][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.85% in the short term, with a low probability of annual-level adjustments unless a strong economic recovery occurs [5]. Fiscal Analysis - In January-February 2025, fiscal revenue growth showed significant divergence, with tax revenue declining by 3.9%, which is considerably lower than the initial budget targets [7][8]. - The strong fiscal expenditure, with a growth rate that outpaces revenue growth, indicates a strong commitment to stabilizing economic growth [7][14]. Machinery Sector - The machinery sector is experiencing a positive trend, with a notable increase in excavator sales, which rose by 52.8% year-on-year in February 2025 [18]. - The report suggests focusing on infrastructure and real estate chains driven by policy support, as well as cyclical general equipment related to domestic demand recovery [20]. Beverage Industry - The high-end liquor market is stabilizing due to rational inventory control by major brands, with a notable rebound in demand expected during festive seasons [22][23]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer demand towards mid-range liquor, driven by increased wedding celebrations and strategic adjustments by companies to focus on regional markets [22][24]. Electronics Sector - The smart glasses market is rapidly growing, with AI functionality becoming a core competitive advantage, as evidenced by Xiaomi's recent launch of its new smart audio glasses [28][30]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in the global smart glasses market, projecting a 139.2% year-on-year growth in 2025, driven by technological advancements and market demand [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value amidst supportive macroeconomic policies [29]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, which aims to lower the overall financing costs in society. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for timely adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates based on economic conditions [7][8]. - Financial supply-side reforms are deepening, with a focus on optimizing structural monetary policy tools for key sectors such as technology and consumption. This includes enhancing support for small and medium-sized enterprises and improving the financing environment for the real estate market [8][9]. - The PBOC plans to introduce specific financial support measures to boost consumption, which will likely lead to increased credit supply in consumer-related sectors and lower financing costs for consumers and businesses [9][10]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The PBOC's first-quarter monetary policy meeting highlighted the need for a continued loose monetary stance to guide down the comprehensive financing costs in society. The meeting also indicated a potential for further reserve requirement ratio cuts in the first half of the year [7][8]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index declining by 2.29%, while the banking sector only fell by 0.18%. Notable individual bank performances included Chongqing Bank (+8.62%) and Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank (+3.36%) [5][11]. Valuation of the Sector and Listed Companies - As of March 21, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.65, indicating a 40.99% discount compared to the overall A-share market's PB ratio of 1.61. The sector's dividend yield is 6.49%, ranking second among all industries [21][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector will benefit from increased credit supply and improved asset quality due to supportive macroeconomic factors. Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128) [29][30].

Macro Insights - The report indicates that the bond market is unlikely to experience significant annual adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.85% in the short term, unless a strong economic recovery occurs in China [5] - The report highlights three narratives that may be tested in 2025: the potential for special bond issuance to exceed expectations, better-than-expected consumer recovery driven by policy stimulus, and breakthroughs in Deepseek technology leading to a new round of capital expenditure [5] - The analysis of fiscal data for January-February 2025 reveals a significant divergence in revenue growth, particularly a -3.9% decline in tax revenue, contrasting with strong fiscal expenditure growth, indicating a strong desire for fiscal stability [7][8] Mechanical Industry - The mechanical equipment index rose by 5.46%, with excavator sales in February 2025 exceeding expectations, showing a 52.8% year-on-year increase [18] - The report suggests focusing on the infrastructure and real estate chain driven by policy support, recommending investments in engineering machinery and urban rail signaling systems [20] - The development of humanoid robots is highlighted, with government support for AI and robotics, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [19] Food and Beverage Industry - The report notes that high-end liquor companies have maintained stable pricing due to rational inventory control, with a rebound in demand expected for lower-priced liquor segments during holiday seasons [22][23] - The feedback from the spring sugar and liquor fair indicates a shift in operational strategies among mid-tier liquor companies, focusing on regional market penetration and product diversification [23][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of direct control over terminal sales for liquor manufacturers, with companies increasing resources for consumer engagement to boost sales performance [24] Electronics Industry - The launch of Xiaomi's new smart audio glasses marks a significant advancement in the smart eyewear market, with a focus on AI integration as a core competitive advantage [28][30] - The report predicts rapid growth in the smart eyewear market, with a projected 113.8% year-on-year increase in shipments in China for 2025, driven by the integration of AI functionalities [30][31] - The report suggests monitoring companies within the AR and AI eyewear supply chain as investment opportunities [31]