Economic Growth - In January, the US manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 51.9, while the services PMI remained flat at 52.5, both slightly below expectations[2] - The Q3 GDP growth rate was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, exceeding the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an upward revision in intellectual property and a narrowing drag from net exports[2] - Real personal spending in November remained flat at 0.3%, with the Redbook retail index showing high year-on-year growth in December and January[2] Financial Conditions - Goldman Sachs' financial conditions index eased by 10 basis points in January, driven by a weaker dollar, narrowing credit spreads, and rising US stock prices[3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4% in January, while corporate credit spreads narrowed by 5 basis points to 0.96%[3] - The US dollar index fell by 1.2% to 97.1 as of January 30[3] Inflation - The December core CPI increased by 0.2%, which was below expectations, with a marginal rise of 0.16 percentage points from November[4] - Inflation expectations rose in January, with 2-year and 10-year TIPS inflation expectations increasing by 54 basis points and 9 basis points to 2.84% and 2.34%, respectively[4] Labor Market - December's non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, below the expected 70,000, with the unemployment rate dropping by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%[5] - The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1% to 62.4%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-on-month[5] - Job openings showed signs of improvement, with a notable decrease in WARN notices indicating layoffs in December[5] Risks - There are concerns regarding the speed of weakening in the US labor market and the potential for liquidity tightening to be less than expected[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aerospace and defense sector [8] Core Insights - The aerospace and defense industry is expected to experience significant recovery and growth in 2025, with 30 out of 75 listed companies forecasting positive earnings growth compared to the previous year [11][12] - The report highlights structural opportunities in military equipment demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on new domains, unmanned systems, advanced weaponry, and low-cost equipment [14][16] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - As of January 31, 2025, 75 out of 120 listed companies in the defense sector have disclosed earnings forecasts, with 30 companies expecting positive growth, 7 expecting positive but declining growth, 17 expecting losses but reduced compared to the previous year, and 21 expecting increased losses [11][12] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include: - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760 CH) - Guorui Technology (600562 CH) - Steel Research (300797 CH) - Guotai Group (603977 CH) - West Superconductor (688122 CH) - Ruichuang Micro-Nano (688002 CH) - Beifang Navigation (600435 CH) - Gaode Infrared (002414 CH) - Aerospace Intelligence (300446 CH) - Aerospace Rainbow (002389 CH) [3][8][9] Earnings Forecasts - Notable companies with significant earnings growth forecasts include: - Beimo High-Tech: 1169% growth due to product delivery and cost reduction [12] - Hailanxin: 509% growth from increased self-produced products [12] - *ST Chengchang: 452% growth driven by industry recovery [12] - Zhimin Da: 414% growth from increased demand in previously established product lines [12] - Aileda: 351% growth from increased military and civilian product demand [12] Long-term Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of new equipment construction cycles and suggests focusing on new products and markets during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [14][16] - The military trade market is expected to grow, with China aiming to increase its market share in global military trade [17] Market Trends - The report notes a decline in the defense sector index by 7.69% over the past week, underperforming the broader market [28] - The current PE (TTM) for the defense sector is 95.23, indicating a high valuation compared to historical levels [36] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that companies involved in unmanned systems, low-cost munitions, and military AI are likely to see significant growth opportunities [16][18] - The commercial aerospace sector is also highlighted as a growing area, with advancements in satellite internet and low-altitude economy [18][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Renewable Energy [6][4] Core Views - The company is expected to report a net profit of 680 million to 880 million RMB for FY25, which is significantly below the consensus estimate of 1.726 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decrease of 51.43% to 62.47% [1] - The primary reasons for the profit shortfall include the overestimation of the consumption pace of low-priced domestic wind orders from 2024, the impact of policy changes on profit margins from wind farm transfers, and uncertainties surrounding the commencement of offshore wind projects [1] - Looking ahead, the industry is anticipated to enter a growth phase in 2026, driven by recovering order prices in 2025, accelerated delivery of overseas projects, and increasing demand for domestic offshore wind and international projects [1] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - The company has revised its FY25 net profit forecast down by 60% to 737 million RMB and adjusted its FY26 and FY27 net profit forecasts down by 32% and 23% respectively, to 1.895 billion and 2.614 billion RMB [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are projected to be 0.60, 1.55, and 2.13 RMB respectively [10] - The report indicates a significant recovery in net profit is expected in FY26, with a year-on-year increase of 157.07% [10] Market Conditions - The average bidding price for onshore wind projects in 2025 is projected to be between 1,933 and 2,248 RMB/kW, which is higher than the average price of 1,894 RMB/kW in 2024 [2] - Approximately 70% of the orders for 2025 are expected to be delivered in 2026, suggesting a potential turnaround in profitability for the company's wind turbine business [2] Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for overseas project deliveries, with the value of the company's overseas wind turbine orders exceeding 10 billion RMB and over 2 GW of new orders added in 2025 [3] - The ongoing global interest rate decline is expected to further support the investment in overseas projects, enhancing the delivery pace and profit realization [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the planting chain has shown significant excess returns during inflation cycles, with a total excess return of 140 percentage points and 126 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 index during five inflation periods [6] - Current inflation expectations are rising, driven by a 16% increase in Brent crude oil prices since January, which is expected to catalyze the planting chain [5][7] - The report suggests increasing allocation to the planting industry chain, particularly in corn and cotton, due to favorable price trends and low fund holdings in the sector [9] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Longping High-Tech (000998 CH) with a target price of 12.77 and a "Buy" rating, and Denghai Seeds (002041 CH) with a target price of 12.06 and an "Overweight" rating [4][22] Market Trends - As of Q4 2025, the fund holding ratio for the agriculture/planting sector is at 1.18% and 0.07%, respectively, indicating a low allocation compared to historical levels [8][9] - The report notes that domestic corn and cotton prices have shown an upward trend since 2025, with January 2026 average prices up 10% and 11% compared to the lowest monthly averages in 2025 [7][9] Historical Performance - The analysis of past inflation cycles indicates that the planting and agricultural processing sectors typically outperform the market, with the planting sector achieving a cumulative excess return of 657% compared to the CSI 300 index over five inflation periods [20] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the recovery of core inflation indicators and the optimization of supply-demand dynamics will support price increases in the planting chain, further enhancing investment opportunities [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Renewable Energy [6][4] Core Views - The company is expected to report a net profit of RMB 680 million to RMB 880 million for FY25, which is significantly below the consensus estimate of RMB 1.726 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 51.43% to 62.47% [1] - The primary reasons for the profit shortfall include the overestimation of the digestion pace of low-priced domestic wind orders from 2024, the impact of policy changes on profit margins from wind farm transfers, and uncertainties surrounding the commencement of offshore wind projects [1] - Looking ahead, the industry is anticipated to enter a growth cycle in 2026, driven by recovering order prices in 2025, accelerated delivery of overseas projects, and increasing demand for domestic offshore wind and overseas projects [1] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company has adjusted its FY25 net profit forecast down by 60% to RMB 737 million, and the FY26 and FY27 net profit forecasts have been reduced by 32% and 23% to RMB 1.895 billion and RMB 2.614 billion, respectively [4][10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are RMB 0.60, RMB 1.55, and RMB 2.13, respectively [10] Market Environment - The report highlights that approximately 70% of the orders for 2025 are expected to be delivered in 2026, which is likely to lead to a turnaround in the company's wind turbine business due to industry price recovery and installation demand [2] - The average bidding price for onshore wind projects in 2025 is projected to be higher than in 2024, indicating a return to rational pricing [2] Overseas Projects - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for the delivery of overseas projects, with the company holding over RMB 10 billion in overseas wind turbine orders and having added more than 2 GW of new orders in FY25 [3] - The ongoing global interest rate decline is expected to further support the investment and delivery of overseas projects [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both power equipment and new energy sectors, as well as for coal [5]. Core Insights - The establishment of a unified capacity price mechanism for independent energy storage is expected to solidify the commercial model for electrochemical energy storage, leading to healthy growth in the industry [1]. - The new policy is anticipated to encourage local governments to balance fixed asset investment and electricity cost competitiveness, reducing project development cycle fluctuations [2]. - The transition to a "reliable capacity compensation mechanism" is seen as a preparatory step for the establishment of a capacity market, promoting fair competition among various capacity adjustment capabilities [3]. - The policy favors high-efficiency energy storage systems, benefiting leading equipment and system suppliers, and is expected to enhance industry concentration [4]. Summary by Sections Unified Capacity Price Mechanism - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have introduced a nationwide unified capacity price compensation logic for independent energy storage, marking a significant policy shift [1]. - In 2025, the domestic electrochemical energy storage installation is projected to reach 62 GW, with independent storage accounting for 35 GW, indicating a robust growth trajectory [1]. Provincial Government Responsibilities - The new policy emphasizes the responsibilities of provincial governments in project approval and capacity price setting, ensuring that projects undergo economic feasibility assessments before inclusion in planning [2]. Transition to Capacity Market - The policy aims to integrate various capacity prices into a reliable capacity compensation mechanism, facilitating a fair competition environment for coal, pumped storage, electrochemical storage, and gas power [3]. Focus on High-Efficiency Systems - The new regulations prioritize high availability, peak capacity, and charging efficiency in energy storage systems, which will lead to higher compensation for efficient systems [4].

证券研究报告 公用环保 发电侧容量电价新规基本符合预期 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 01 日│中国内地 动态点评 2026 年 1 月 30 日，国家发改委、国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电 价机制的通知》（发改价格〔2026〕114 号），各类电源容量电价机制完善 情况基本符合预期；抽蓄抽水、电网侧独立新型储能充电时视作用户，缴纳 上网环节线损费用和系统运行费用（全国平均约 1.6 和 6.1 分/千瓦时），充 放电量损耗需按照单一电量制用户缴纳输配电价（全国平均约 0.178 元/千 瓦时），此前各省执行情况不一，该要求一定程度或减少抽蓄和新型储能电 量收益。总体而言，容量电价机制的进一步完善有望提升调节电源的固定收 入占比，盈利稳定性有望提升，推荐火电龙头华能国际 AH/国电电力/华润 电力等、抽蓄运营龙头南网储能和装机增长潜力大的长江电力/湖北能源等。 煤电容量电价如期提升至不低于 165 元/千瓦，决定权下放至地方 "114 号文"提出：1）将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升 至不低于 50%，与 2023 年 11 月 8 日国家发改委、国家能源局发布的《关 于建立煤电容量电价机 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for public pension FOFs, particularly those with low volatility and stable returns [2][3][19]. Core Insights - The public pension FOF market in China has shown significant growth, with a total scale of 244 billion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting an increase of over 80% compared to the previous year [2][8]. - The report highlights the trend of public pension FOFs embracing passive investment strategies and diversifying asset classes to achieve absolute returns [1][3]. - The analysis of historical performance reveals that certain pension FOFs exhibit low volatility and strong stability, achieving absolute return characteristics [3][19]. Summary by Sections Public Pension FOF Market Overview - As of the end of 2025, there are 545 public pension FOF products with a total scale of 244 billion yuan, marking an increase of approximately 110 billion yuan from 2024 [2][8]. - Among these, the mixed bond FOF category dominates with a scale of about 150 billion yuan, indicating a preference for low-volatility products among investors [2][8]. Performance Analysis of Pension FOFs - Recent years have seen public pension FOFs continuously optimizing their investment frameworks, with some products demonstrating stable and excellent performance [3][7]. - Notable pension FOFs, such as the Invesco Great Wall Conservative Pension Target FOF, have shown a Sharpe ratio exceeding 2.5 and a maximum drawdown below 1% during the observed period [3][21]. Case Study: Invesco Great Wall Conservative Pension Target FOF - The Invesco Great Wall Conservative Pension Target FOF (A share code: 019665) has diversified its asset allocation across U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, gold, and bonds, achieving a high investment success rate [4][27]. - The fund manager's accurate macroeconomic assessments and asset allocation strategies have contributed to its stable performance, with a maximum drawdown of only 0.88% [22][24]. - The fund's asset allocation strategy includes a significant portion in cash during uncertain market conditions, effectively controlling risk during market shocks [27][31]. Fund Selection and Performance Metrics - The report identifies several pension FOFs with low risk and stable performance, focusing on those with a high Sharpe ratio and consistent positive returns [17][19]. - The analysis includes metrics such as annualized returns, volatility, and maximum drawdown, emphasizing the importance of consistent performance in varying market conditions [19][20].

证券研究报告 港股通 2）流体晶平台机制：石药拥有全球领先的脂质体平台，而流体晶技术本质 为富有活性成分的脂质液体，在与组织中的液体接触时，脂质溶液转化为液 晶凝胶，活性成分被封装在其中，实现在人体内的长期缓释（可实现每月一 次或更长给药，平台同时适用多肽及小分子）； 3）平台价值：超长效流体晶平台全球范围内具备一定稀缺性，海外仅 Camurus 拥有类似平台（已和礼来达成合作），石药本次交易规模显著高 于此前 Camurus 的合作，我们认为主因该超长效平台的稀缺性及海外 MNC 对于海外减重市场规模潜力的判断进一步提升。 石药集团 (1093 HK) 长效代谢平台解锁重磅出海交易 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 01 日│中国香港 | 化学制药 | 目标价(港币): | 19.25 | 公司公告，超长效多肽药物代谢 AI 发现平台的海外权益将以 12 亿美金预付 款，最高 35 亿美金研发里程碑，最高 138 亿美金潜在销售里程碑，以及最 高净销售额双位数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors, while also recommending an "Overweight" for the insurance sector [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a vibrant performance in the securities industry, with a daily average trading volume of 30.6 billion yuan in A-shares and a financing balance stabilizing at 2.7 trillion yuan, reaching a new high [12][13]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to expand the types of strategic investors, allowing specific institutional investors to participate as strategic investors, which is expected to enhance long-term capital inflow into the market [12][14]. - The insurance sector shows a recovery trend, with leading companies like China Life Insurance seeing significant stock price increases, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [27]. - The banking sector is experiencing a preemptive credit issuance at the start of the year, with banks like Qingdao Bank and Xiamen Bank reporting strong earnings growth, which is expected to support net interest margins throughout the year [31][32]. Summary by Sections Securities - The report emphasizes the strong performance of leading brokerage firms, with notable earnings forecasts for 2025, including a 40% increase in net profit for CITIC Securities and a 69%-73% increase for Guotai Junan [15][16]. - Recommended stocks include top brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities, as well as quality regional brokerages like Guoyuan Securities [3][13]. Insurance - The insurance sector is recommended for investment, particularly in leading companies. The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains high, with opportunities for beta trading in the insurance sector [27]. - Investors with higher risk tolerance are encouraged to consider high-elasticity combinations represented by companies like Xinhua Insurance, while conservative investors may focus on stable companies like Ping An Insurance and China Life Insurance [27]. Banking - The banking sector is highlighted for its strong performance, with Qingdao Bank reporting an 8.0% increase in revenue and a 21.7% increase in net profit, indicating improved asset quality [32]. - The report suggests that the preemptive credit issuance by regional banks and the benefits from high-interest deposits maturing will support net interest margins [33]. - Recommended banking stocks include quality regional banks such as Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank, as well as larger banks like Shanghai Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3][31].