证券研究报告 先声药业 (2096 HK) 港股通 SIM0500 获里程碑，年内有望 PoC | 华泰研究 | | 事件点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 04 日│中国香港 | 生物医药 | 目标价(港币): | 19.82 | 2 月 3 日，公司公告其收到艾伯维就 SIM0500 的 4,000 万美元里程碑付款。 该分子临床开发合作进展积极，我们预计其有望年内读出 I 期临床数据。公 司已达成多项 10 亿美元级 BD 出海，创新研发体系与平台技术能力得到验 证。目前公司已授权产品开发进程稳步推进，先必新舌下片、NMTi 载荷 ADC 平台等有望成为下一轮出海重点，公司全球竞争力有望持续兑现。维持"买 入"。 预计临床 I 期开发顺利，有望年内数据读出 SIM0500 是公司自主开发的 BCMA/GPRC5D/CD3 三抗 TCE，于 2025 年 1 月授权艾伯维，现已获 FDA 的 FTD 认定。目前本品处于中美 I 期临床阶段， 国内剂量爬坡持续推进，美国于 2025 年中完成首例患者给药。本 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - Japan's economic fundamentals are improving, but political uncertainties are rising, with December data showing marginal weakness in consumption, exports, and investment, while leading indicators suggest significant improvement in economic momentum [2] - The political landscape is affected by the early dissolution of the House of Representatives and proposals to lower food consumption taxes, impacting market sentiment and government bond yields [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Analysis - In December 2025, tax and non-tax revenues declined due to a high base effect, while general budget expenditures saw a narrowing decline, indicating resilience in government fund expenditures supported by local debt limits [3] - Overall fiscal performance for the year was slightly below initial budget expectations, influenced by the front-loaded issuance of general government bonds and slower fiscal fund disbursements [3] Group 3: Consumer Goods Sector - In the overseas essential consumer goods market, high-end consumption shows signs of recovery, while mid-range and mass-market segments have not seen significant improvement, with foreign brands struggling under weak demand and channel transformation challenges [4] - Companies achieving growth in China are primarily leveraging their own brand and channel advantages, facing challenges such as weak consumer sentiment, intensified competition, and inventory pressures [4] Group 4: Aerospace and Defense Industry - The domestic commercial aircraft market is poised for growth, with the C919 and C909 aircraft showcased at the Singapore Airshow, and the C929 entering mass production preparation [5] - The demand for commercial aviation engines is driven by both new aircraft deliveries and ongoing maintenance services, indicating a promising outlook for domestic aerospace manufacturing [5] Group 5: Real Estate Development - Shanghai's initiative to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental projects aims to address the needs of new citizens and young professionals, potentially stabilizing second-hand housing prices and enhancing market confidence [6] - The proactive approach in a first-tier city like Shanghai is expected to inject new momentum into the real estate market's inventory reduction and industry transformation [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - In the consumer sector, Yili Group is positioned to capitalize on recovery opportunities, having built strong barriers in product, supply chain, and marketing, with expectations of improved profitability driven by demand recovery in liquid milk [8] - For Aoyou, despite domestic business pressures, overseas markets are expected to show strong revenue growth due to effective team incentives and competitive advantages in international markets [10] Group 7: Automotive Sector - BYD's January sales faced pressure with total passenger vehicle sales dropping to 210,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30%, while export sales surged by 51% year-on-year [11] - The company is expected to leverage new technologies and expand its export volume significantly in 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [11]

澳优 (1717 HK) 25 年国内业务承压但海外市场亮眼 2026 年 2 月 03 日│中国香港 食品 我们预计公司 2025 年收入 74.8 亿元，同比+1.1%，净利润 2.4 亿元，同比 +1.3%，对应 25H2 收入预计同比-3.4%，净利润预计同比-35.4%。据国家 统计局，25 年中国新生人口数量为 792 万人，同比净减少 162 万人，对国 内婴配粉行业的需求形成压力；据尼尔森，25 年国内婴配粉行业销售额小 幅下滑，其中销量同比小幅下滑。我们预计公司 25H2 国内的羊奶粉与牛奶 粉 BU 的收入均未恢复增长，但海外业务预计延续了较好的收入成长，主因 集团对于海外团队的激励机制进行梳理，海外团队的积极性进一步提升，国 内的成熟打法（如会员模式等）在海外市场效果显著；叠加海外市场竞争压 力相对较小，且公司拥有美国 FDA 配方批文、荷兰奶源等差异化优势等。 利润端，行业竞争加剧对 25H2 利润形成拖累，期待后续改善。维持"增持"。 收入端：25 年国内业务有所拖累，海外业务延续较好的收入成长 据国家统计局，25 年中国新生人口数量为 792 万人，同比净减少 162 万人， 对国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aerospace and defense industry [2][11]. Core Insights - The domestic large aircraft market is advancing towards scale operations, with the C919 and C909 aircraft achieving significant milestones in both domestic and international markets. The C929 is expected to enter the wide-body aircraft market, indicating a promising future for domestic commercial aircraft manufacturing [5][6]. - The demand for commercial aircraft engines is robust, driven by both new aircraft deliveries and ongoing maintenance services, suggesting a bright outlook for domestic engine manufacturers [5][8]. - The C919 has received over 1,000 orders, with production capacity expected to increase to 200 units annually by 2029, indicating a potential acceleration in production and an increase in domestic content [7][11]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Developments - The C919 and C909 aircraft have collectively delivered over 200 units and opened more than 800 routes, transporting over 36 million passengers. Internationally, countries like Vietnam and Malaysia are supporting the operation of Chinese commercial aircraft, marking significant progress in expanding the international market [6]. Engine Market Dynamics - The global demand for civil aviation engines is projected to grow steadily, with an estimated 46,232 new aircraft deliveries from 2025 to 2044, of which China is expected to account for 9,856 units. This translates to an average annual demand of 986 engines in the Chinese market [8][12]. - The aftermarket services for engines represent a substantial profit source, with GE Aviation's service revenue reaching $25.01 billion in 2025, accounting for 75% of its total revenue from commercial engines [8]. Domestic Engine Development - The CJ1000A engine, designed for the C919, is progressing well, with successful testing phases completed. The domestic engine manufacturing sector is expected to enhance its capabilities and contribute significantly to the large aircraft supply chain [9][11]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for relevant listed companies in the aerospace engine sector, highlighting their market capitalizations and projected net profits for 2025 to 2027, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities within the industry [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [9] Core Insights - The report highlights a structural differentiation in consumer recovery across various segments, with high-end consumption showing signs of recovery while mid-range and mass-market segments lag behind [1] - Foreign brands are facing challenges due to weak demand and a trend towards "de-branding," which has led to overall performance pressure [1] - Companies achieving growth are primarily relying on their own brand strength and channel strategies [1] Alcoholic Beverages - The overseas spirits giants are experiencing performance pressure in China, with Pernod Ricard and Diageo reporting significant declines in sales [2][13] - Diageo's management remains cautious, expecting continued challenges in the market, particularly in the white liquor segment [2][14] - Rémy Cointreau's sales in China have stabilized, but internal performance shows structural differentiation [2][15] Dairy Products - Foreign brands in the dairy sector, particularly in milk beverages and nutritional products, are performing well due to strong brand management and product innovation [3][22] - The market for dairy products is expected to continue growing, especially in segments like low-temperature fresh milk and cheese [3][32] - The high import dependency in certain dairy categories presents opportunities for domestic alternatives [3][32] Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry is experiencing varied performance across segments, with carbonated drinks under pressure while energy drinks and sugar-free tea are expanding [4][33] - Coca-Cola and PepsiCo maintain high market shares in carbonated drinks but face increasing competition from local brands [4][33] - Monster's sales in China are growing rapidly, indicating a positive outlook for the energy drink segment [4][44] Beer - The beer market is under pressure due to weakened dining demand, with Budweiser experiencing a significant decline in sales [5] - Carlsberg has stabilized its performance through product adjustments, while Heineken benefits from partnerships with local brands [5] Snacks - The snack sector is seeing a weak recovery, with foreign brands struggling against local competitors [6] - Mondelez has managed to maintain steady growth in China through localized marketing strategies [6] Condiments - Foreign condiment brands are focusing on improving product value and adapting to changing consumer preferences [7] - The market is shifting towards value-oriented consumption, prompting companies to adjust their strategies [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [7] Core Insights - The new policy in Shanghai for acquiring second-hand housing aims to address the rental needs of new citizens, young people, and graduates, potentially stabilizing housing prices and boosting industry confidence [1][4] - The policy is expected to facilitate a balance between supply and demand in the real estate market by replacing new construction with stock acquisition, thus compressing the supply cycle for affordable rental housing [3] - The report highlights the importance of targeted housing supply strategies in key districts, focusing on small units and proximity to industrial areas to meet talent housing needs [2] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate companies with strong credit, good locations, and quality products, particularly those with quality reserves in Shanghai [5] - Specific companies highlighted include China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group, among others, which are expected to benefit from the new policy and market recovery [9][10] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the new policy is not the first of its kind in China, with previous examples in cities like Zhengzhou, but it is expected to have a more significant impact in Shanghai due to its status as a core first-tier city [4] - The anticipated market stabilization is supported by a relatively market-oriented pricing mechanism for affordable rental housing, which could lead to sustainable commercial outcomes [4] Company Performance - Companies such as Greentown Service and Longfor Group are expected to maintain strong performance metrics, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and stable cash flow management [11][12] - The report emphasizes the operational capabilities of companies like China Resources Land and Longfor Group, which are positioned to navigate market adjustments effectively [12][13]

| 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 03 日│中国内地 | 乘用车 | 目标价(人民币): | 130.63 | 2 月 1 日，比亚迪发布产销快报，1 月乘用车总销量 21 万辆，同比-30%、 环比-50%；其中出口销量突破 10 万辆，同比+51%、环比-25%。我们认为 公司受需求前置和主动去库影响，1 月销量同环比大幅下滑，系淡季主动调 结构，为春节后新车和新技术发布蓄力。我们看好公司 26 年出口销量超 130 万辆，期待公司超充、智驾等领域的新技术进展，维持"买入"评级。 国内：受需求前置和主动去库影响，1 月销量同环比大幅下滑 分品牌看，1 月王朝+海洋系列/方程豹/腾势/仰望销量 17.8/2.2/0.6/0.04 万 辆，同比-36%/+247%/-49%/+44%。1 月内销同环比大幅下滑，源于供需两 端压力。1）需求端，26 年新能源购置税增加 5%，导致需求于 25 年底提 前释放，叠加地方置换补贴申请窗口 1 月底才全面铺开，消费者持币 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 36.60, reflecting a positive outlook on its growth potential and market position [8]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading player in the dairy industry through decades of focused development, creating strong barriers in product, supply chain, channel, and marketing [1][16]. - The short-term outlook for liquid milk demand is expected to improve, with a potential recovery in profitability driven by reduced competition and the introduction of value-for-money products [1][21]. - The company is strategically expanding into adult nutrition and dairy deep processing, which are anticipated to become significant growth engines in the medium to long term [1][3][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved from a small cooperative established in 1956 to the largest dairy enterprise in China, consistently ranking among the top five globally since 2014 [16][22]. - It has successfully navigated industry challenges, including a downturn since 2021, by diversifying its product offerings and enhancing its supply chain efficiency [2][17]. Revenue Growth - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories, particularly in high-end and functional liquid milk, which are expected to present structural opportunities for growth [3][18]. - The adult nutrition segment is projected to grow significantly, with the functional health food market expected to increase by over 23% from 2025 to 2030 [3][19]. Profitability Enhancement - The liquid milk business is anticipated to see improved profitability as milk prices stabilize and competition eases, allowing for better gross margins [4][19]. - The company aims to achieve a profit margin of 5%-10% in its deep processing business, which is expected to contribute positively to overall profitability [4][19]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% of its net profit for the years 2025-2027, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns [20]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a strong competitive edge through its comprehensive product portfolio, robust supply chain management, and effective marketing strategies [2][5]. - It is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends in the dairy market, including the growing demand for high-quality and functional dairy products [5][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 130.63 [1][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in January sales, with total passenger car sales of 210,000 units, down 30% year-on-year and 50% month-on-month. However, export sales exceeded 100,000 units, marking a 51% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in domestic sales is attributed to demand front-loading and proactive inventory reduction, which is seen as a strategic move to prepare for new car and technology launches post-Spring Festival [2]. - The company aims for an export target of over 1.3 million units in 2026, driven by the expansion of overseas production capacity and retail networks [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales - January sales saw a significant drop due to supply and demand pressures, with the Dynasty and Ocean series, as well as other brands, showing varied performance. The company proactively reduced inventory by approximately 50,000 units in January [2]. Export Performance - The company exported 100,000 units in January, continuing a strong growth trend. The overseas market is expected to be a key driver for sales growth in 2026, with plans to expand production capacity to over 800,000 units [3]. Technological Advancements - The company is focusing on enhancing battery range and fast charging capabilities, particularly in northern regions, to improve user experience and increase penetration of new energy vehicles [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to RMB 820 billion, RMB 955 billion, and RMB 1,110 billion respectively. Net profit estimates are RMB 350 billion, RMB 466 billion, and RMB 567 billion for the same years [5][10]. - The estimated EPS for the automotive business in 2026 is projected at RMB 4.24, with a target PE of 24 times, reflecting a premium over comparable companies [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 36.60, up from the previous target of RMB 34.38, reflecting an increase in the comparable company's PE average for 2026 [8][6]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading player in the dairy industry through decades of focused development, creating strong barriers in product, supply chain, channel, and marketing [2][16]. - The short-term outlook for liquid milk demand is expected to improve, with a potential recovery in profitability driven by reduced competition. In the medium to long term, the company aims to expand its full dairy product range, focusing on adult nutrition and deep processing of dairy products as new growth engines [1][19]. - The company has a robust competitive advantage, having successfully developed several billion-yuan products and maintained a high-efficiency supply chain [2][16]. Summary by Sections Historical Development - The company has evolved from a small cooperative established in 1956 to the largest dairy enterprise in China, consistently ranking among the top five globally since 2014 [22][16]. - The company has navigated various industry phases, including a focus on high-margin products and strategic diversification into multiple dairy segments [24][23]. Revenue Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in its liquid milk business, with high-end and functional products presenting structural opportunities. The adult nutrition segment is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted revenue increase of over 23% in the health food sector by 2025-2030 [3][18]. - The deep processing of dairy products is anticipated to benefit from improved domestic R&D capabilities, with a target of achieving RMB 10 billion in revenue from this segment within five years [3][19]. Profitability Insights - The report suggests that the company's profitability is likely to improve, with a stabilization in milk prices expected in 2026. The competitive landscape is anticipated to shift towards more rational collaboration among leading dairy companies, enhancing overall industry stability [4][19]. - The company aims to achieve a profit margin of 5%-10% in its deep processing business, which is expected to contribute positively to overall profitability without dragging down the company's margins [4][19]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% of its net profit for the years 2025-2027, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns [20][19]. Market Perspective - The report contrasts its optimistic view with some market skepticism regarding the dairy industry's growth potential, asserting that the company’s multi-dimensional advantages will allow it to continue expanding its growth boundaries [5][21].