证券研究报告 公用环保 发电侧容量电价新规基本符合预期 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 01 日│中国内地 动态点评 2026 年 1 月 30 日，国家发改委、国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电 价机制的通知》（发改价格〔2026〕114 号），各类电源容量电价机制完善 情况基本符合预期；抽蓄抽水、电网侧独立新型储能充电时视作用户，缴纳 上网环节线损费用和系统运行费用（全国平均约 1.6 和 6.1 分/千瓦时），充 放电量损耗需按照单一电量制用户缴纳输配电价（全国平均约 0.178 元/千 瓦时），此前各省执行情况不一，该要求一定程度或减少抽蓄和新型储能电 量收益。总体而言，容量电价机制的进一步完善有望提升调节电源的固定收 入占比，盈利稳定性有望提升，推荐火电龙头华能国际 AH/国电电力/华润 电力等、抽蓄运营龙头南网储能和装机增长潜力大的长江电力/湖北能源等。 煤电容量电价如期提升至不低于 165 元/千瓦，决定权下放至地方 "114 号文"提出：1）将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升 至不低于 50%，与 2023 年 11 月 8 日国家发改委、国家能源局发布的《关 于建立煤电容量电价机 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for public pension FOFs, particularly those with low volatility and stable returns [2][3][19]. Core Insights - The public pension FOF market in China has shown significant growth, with a total scale of 244 billion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting an increase of over 80% compared to the previous year [2][8]. - The report highlights the trend of public pension FOFs embracing passive investment strategies and diversifying asset classes to achieve absolute returns [1][3]. - The analysis of historical performance reveals that certain pension FOFs exhibit low volatility and strong stability, achieving absolute return characteristics [3][19]. Summary by Sections Public Pension FOF Market Overview - As of the end of 2025, there are 545 public pension FOF products with a total scale of 244 billion yuan, marking an increase of approximately 110 billion yuan from 2024 [2][8]. - Among these, the mixed bond FOF category dominates with a scale of about 150 billion yuan, indicating a preference for low-volatility products among investors [2][8]. Performance Analysis of Pension FOFs - Recent years have seen public pension FOFs continuously optimizing their investment frameworks, with some products demonstrating stable and excellent performance [3][7]. - Notable pension FOFs, such as the Invesco Great Wall Conservative Pension Target FOF, have shown a Sharpe ratio exceeding 2.5 and a maximum drawdown below 1% during the observed period [3][21]. Case Study: Invesco Great Wall Conservative Pension Target FOF - The Invesco Great Wall Conservative Pension Target FOF (A share code: 019665) has diversified its asset allocation across U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, gold, and bonds, achieving a high investment success rate [4][27]. - The fund manager's accurate macroeconomic assessments and asset allocation strategies have contributed to its stable performance, with a maximum drawdown of only 0.88% [22][24]. - The fund's asset allocation strategy includes a significant portion in cash during uncertain market conditions, effectively controlling risk during market shocks [27][31]. Fund Selection and Performance Metrics - The report identifies several pension FOFs with low risk and stable performance, focusing on those with a high Sharpe ratio and consistent positive returns [17][19]. - The analysis includes metrics such as annualized returns, volatility, and maximum drawdown, emphasizing the importance of consistent performance in varying market conditions [19][20].

证券研究报告 港股通 2）流体晶平台机制：石药拥有全球领先的脂质体平台，而流体晶技术本质 为富有活性成分的脂质液体，在与组织中的液体接触时，脂质溶液转化为液 晶凝胶，活性成分被封装在其中，实现在人体内的长期缓释（可实现每月一 次或更长给药，平台同时适用多肽及小分子）； 3）平台价值：超长效流体晶平台全球范围内具备一定稀缺性，海外仅 Camurus 拥有类似平台（已和礼来达成合作），石药本次交易规模显著高 于此前 Camurus 的合作，我们认为主因该超长效平台的稀缺性及海外 MNC 对于海外减重市场规模潜力的判断进一步提升。 石药集团 (1093 HK) 长效代谢平台解锁重磅出海交易 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 01 日│中国香港 | 化学制药 | 目标价(港币): | 19.25 | 公司公告，超长效多肽药物代谢 AI 发现平台的海外权益将以 12 亿美金预付 款，最高 35 亿美金研发里程碑，最高 138 亿美金潜在销售里程碑，以及最 高净销售额双位数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors, while also recommending an "Overweight" for the insurance sector [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a vibrant performance in the securities industry, with a daily average trading volume of 30.6 billion yuan in A-shares and a financing balance stabilizing at 2.7 trillion yuan, reaching a new high [12][13]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to expand the types of strategic investors, allowing specific institutional investors to participate as strategic investors, which is expected to enhance long-term capital inflow into the market [12][14]. - The insurance sector shows a recovery trend, with leading companies like China Life Insurance seeing significant stock price increases, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [27]. - The banking sector is experiencing a preemptive credit issuance at the start of the year, with banks like Qingdao Bank and Xiamen Bank reporting strong earnings growth, which is expected to support net interest margins throughout the year [31][32]. Summary by Sections Securities - The report emphasizes the strong performance of leading brokerage firms, with notable earnings forecasts for 2025, including a 40% increase in net profit for CITIC Securities and a 69%-73% increase for Guotai Junan [15][16]. - Recommended stocks include top brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities, as well as quality regional brokerages like Guoyuan Securities [3][13]. Insurance - The insurance sector is recommended for investment, particularly in leading companies. The report notes that the overall market sentiment remains high, with opportunities for beta trading in the insurance sector [27]. - Investors with higher risk tolerance are encouraged to consider high-elasticity combinations represented by companies like Xinhua Insurance, while conservative investors may focus on stable companies like Ping An Insurance and China Life Insurance [27]. Banking - The banking sector is highlighted for its strong performance, with Qingdao Bank reporting an 8.0% increase in revenue and a 21.7% increase in net profit, indicating improved asset quality [32]. - The report suggests that the preemptive credit issuance by regional banks and the benefits from high-interest deposits maturing will support net interest margins [33]. - Recommended banking stocks include quality regional banks such as Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank, as well as larger banks like Shanghai Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3][31].

证券研究报告 金工 白银短期风险或依然处于高位 2026 年 2 月 01 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 三类商品子策略最新持仓均在农产品板块配置较高多头仓位 商品融合策略近两周（2026.01.16~2026.01.30，下同）上涨 0.09%，今年 以来上涨 0.02%。在三个子策略中，商品时序动量模拟组合近期表现较好， 商品时序动量模拟组合近两周上涨 1.79%，今年以来上涨 2.17%。时序动 量模拟组合中，近两周收益贡献靠前的品种是锌、石油气、棕榈油，收益贡 献分别为 0.43%、0.29%、0.28%，近期油脂油料类商品表现较强，组合因 做多相关商品而获取一定的正收益。近两周收益贡献靠后的品种是热轧卷 板、螺纹钢、豆粕，收益贡献分别为-0.04%、-0.07%、-0.1%。时序动量模 拟组合最新持仓中，仅做空铜和棉，对其它商品做多或不配置，其中能源化 工和农产品板块在整体持仓中的多头仓位占比较高。具体做多品种上，时序 动量模拟组合主要在豆油、棕榈油、锌、石油气等商品上配置有较多的多头 仓位。值得一提的是，期限结构和截面仓单模拟组合最新持仓也在农产品板 块配置有较高多头仓位。 海外金银比价仍处 50 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the value enhancement of the company, driven by the upward price cycle of copper and gold, the company's leading position in the domestic copper mining industry, and its strategic shift towards a "copper + gold" valuation model [1][4] - The company has exceeded its copper production guidance for 2025, achieving a total copper output of 740,000 tons, significantly above the initial guidance of 600,000 to 660,000 tons, with plans to further increase production in 2026 [2][5] - The company is actively expanding its gold segment, having recently acquired 100% equity in gold mining assets in Brazil, which is expected to contribute 6-8 tons of gold production in 2026 [3][5] Summary by Sections Copper and Gold Price Outlook - The report anticipates a bullish trend for both copper and gold prices, with expectations for copper prices to exceed $15,000 per ton from 2025 to 2028, driven by limited supply growth and increasing demand [4][5] - The report highlights that global central banks may continue to increase their gold reserves, supporting long-term price increases for gold [4] Production and Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 204 billion, RMB 324 billion, and RMB 361 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting adjustments of +6%, +26%, and +27% respectively [5][11] - The target price for the company's A shares is set at RMB 35.83 and HKD 33.95 for H shares, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.7x for 2026 [5][7] Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic copper mining sector, with a strong growth trajectory and a strategic focus on diversifying into gold mining [1][3] - The report compares the company's valuation favorably against peers, maintaining a premium due to its growth potential and market leadership [5][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.25 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has announced a significant overseas deal for its long-acting peptide drug metabolism AI discovery platform, involving an upfront payment of USD 1.2 billion, potential R&D milestone payments of up to USD 3.5 billion, and sales milestone payments of up to USD 13.8 billion, along with a double-digit percentage royalty on net sales to AstraZeneca [1][2]. - This transaction is noted as the largest deal in the domestic pharmaceutical sector for the year, comparable to a previous major deal between 3SBio and Pfizer [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upfront payment, leading to a projected rapid year-on-year growth in net profit for 2026 [1]. - The long-acting metabolism platform is considered rare globally, with only Camurus having a similar platform, which enhances the company's competitive position in the overseas weight loss market [2]. Summary by Sections Transaction Details - The deal with AstraZeneca includes an upfront payment of USD 1.2 billion, potential R&D milestones of up to USD 3.5 billion, and sales milestones of up to USD 13.8 billion, along with a royalty on net sales [2]. - The platform includes core assets such as GIPR/GLP-1R and three preclinical weight loss pipelines, with plans for collaboration on four additional projects [2]. Platform Mechanism - The company possesses a leading liposome platform, and the fluid crystal technology allows for long-term release of active ingredients, enabling monthly or longer dosing [2]. Pipeline Potential - The company has a robust pipeline including EGFR ADC, which is expected to enter Phase III clinical trials both domestically and internationally, and other oncology and autoimmune therapies [3]. - The ADC pipeline targets HER3, B7H3, DLL3, and aims to address gaps in lung squamous carcinoma treatment [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 4.45 billion, RMB 8.46 billion, and RMB 5.60 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.39, RMB 0.73, and RMB 0.49 [4][9]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 24 times for 2026, with a target price adjustment reflecting market conditions [4][11].

Core Viewpoints - The recent market pullback is seen as a technical correction rather than a reversal, primarily driven by the rapid rise in stock prices and the hawkish stance of the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chair [2] - The current market sentiment has shifted to an optimistic zone, with the emotional index reaching 62.1, indicating a potential for continued volatility in the short term [5][49] - The three driving factors for market space in the first quarter remain intact: improved liquidity, resonance in the funding environment, and upward revisions in profit expectations [2] Fundamental Analysis - Non-financial profit expectations have been revised upward by 0.4% over the past four weeks, while revenue expectations have been slightly adjusted downward by 0.1% [3] - The sectors with the most significant upward revisions in profit expectations include non-ferrous metals (7.7%), military industry (4.0%), and new energy (1.8%) [3] - The official manufacturing PMI for January stands at 49.3, reflecting demand-side pressures, although there are positive signals in price recovery [3] Funding Environment - Foreign capital continues to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, with net inflows reaching $2.8 billion, up from $1.95 billion the previous week [4] - Active foreign capital has seen a continuous inflow for three weeks, with a record weekly inflow of $640 million, while passive foreign capital remains at a high level [4] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has led to short-term volatility, but the medium-term liquidity outlook remains relatively loose [4] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has quickly transitioned into an optimistic zone, with the emotional index indicating a potential accumulation of short-term volatility risks [5][49] - The sentiment indicators, including net inflows from southbound funds and the AH premium score, remain high, suggesting strong market participation [5] Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on companies with earnings certainty as a core holding, with a focus on the technology and cyclical materials sectors for potential incremental investments [6] - Short-term attention should be given to leading companies' earnings reports and industry developments, particularly in the AI supply chain [6] - Mid-term strategies should continue to overweight resource stocks, insurance, and local Hong Kong stocks after stabilization [6]

证券研究报告 固收 "看股或商品做债"为何不灵了？ 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 欧阳琳* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070010 ouyanglin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 2026 年 2 月 01 日│中国内地 利率周报 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 SFC No. BXH064 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com 朱逸敏* 联系人 +(86) 10 6321 1166 报告核心观点 近日，传统"看股或商品做债"策略失效，背后源于两大力量交织：一是大 宗商品价格剧烈波动，其通胀效应与经济影响背离，对债市压制有限；二是 ...

概览：北京时间 1 月 29 日（周四）凌晨美联储公布 1 月议息会议决定，政 策利率维持在 3.5-3.75%，联储对经济和就业市场表述更加乐观，市场降息 预期变动不大；关注联储主席提名情况。 联储 1 月会议如期维持政策利率在 3.5-3.75%，决议声明以及鲍威尔记者会 表态对经济前景更加乐观。理事沃勒、米兰反对维持政策利率不变，要求降 息 25 个基点。决议声明对经济增长的描述从"温和"（moderate）调整为"稳 健"（solid），删除"就业市场下行风险上升"的表述，并指出失业率出现企稳 迹象，整体表述更加乐观；鲍威尔未回应是否留任联储理事等问题，对利率 前景也没有给出明确指引。截至北京时间凌晨 4:50，相较会议前，除黄金 外，市场整体变动不大：2026 年降息预期持平于 46bp；2y、10y 美债收益 率亦分别持平于 3.58%、4.25%；美元指数回落 0.2%至 96.4；标普 500、 纳指均上涨 0.1%，道指基本持平，黄金上涨 1.9%至 5374 美元/盎司。 基本面方面，鲍威尔表示，经济前景改善，就业市场下行风险与通胀上行风 险均有所减弱。增长方面，消费者支出保持韧性、企业投 ...