1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Among overseas bank bonds, ordinary bank bonds have the largest outstanding volume, while AT1 and AT2 are subordinated bonds with higher yields. Subordinated bonds have had many credit risk events in history, reshaping the research framework and pricing for institutional investors. Ordinary bank bonds are mainly investment - grade, and their pricing is more affected by liquidity premium, while subordinated bonds are more affected by credit risk premium. In the future, considering the overall stable fundamentals of banks and the interest - rate cut cycle, opportunities for yield decline in medium - and short - duration ordinary bonds and subordinated bonds can be focused on. Chinese banks' overseas bonds, mainly US - dollar ordinary bonds issued by large banks, have higher coupons than domestic bonds, presenting allocation opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Bank Bond Overview - **Types and Attributes**: Overseas bank bonds mainly include ordinary bank bonds, TLAC non - capital instruments, AT2, and AT1 bonds. Ordinary bank bonds have the best repayment order and are used to supplement general operating funds. TLAC non - capital instruments help global system - important banks meet TLAC regulatory indicators. AT1 and AT2 are used to supplement a bank's primary and secondary capital respectively, with subordinated, redemption, write - down, or conversion clauses [12]. - **Outstanding Amount**: As of October 20, the outstanding amounts of ordinary bank bonds, TLAC non - capital instruments, AT2, and AT1 bonds were 6.4, 2.0, 0.8, and 0.5 trillion US dollars respectively [2]. - **Ordinary Bank Bonds**: They are denominated mainly in euros, with the largest outstanding volume. European countries dominate in terms of issuance, and Germany has the largest outstanding amount. From 2010 - 2025, the overall issuance scale declined, and the financing situation shifted from net repayment to mild net financing. The issuance term is mainly 1 - 7 years, and the rated bonds are mainly of A grade. The lower the rating, the higher the interest rate [18][22][30]. - **AT1 Bonds**: They are denominated mainly in US dollars, with the largest outstanding amounts in the UK and the US. The market expanded significantly after 2014 and has developed steadily since then. The net financing amount has changed with the market rhythm. The issuance coupon is affected by the interest - rate environment and credit risk events. Bonds with ratings are mainly of Ba1 grade, and the lower the rating, the higher the coupon [35][40][52]. - **AT2 Bonds**: They are mainly issued by France, the US, etc., and are denominated mainly in US dollars, euros, and Australian dollars. The issuance scale fluctuated greatly from 2010 - 2025, mainly affected by the interest - rate cycle. The net financing amount has been mainly positive but showed a downward trend. Rated bonds are mainly of Baa1 grade, and the lower the rating, the higher the interest rate [54][59][66]. - **Chinese Banks' Overseas Bonds**: As of October 21, the outstanding amount was 7.6 billion US dollars, mainly ordinary bank bonds. US dollars are the main currency, and most of the rated bonds have high credit ratings. The financing rhythm is significantly affected by cost, and the net financing amount has been negative since 2022 [69][70]. 3.2 Review and Enlightenment of Credit Risks of Overseas Subordinated Bank Bonds - **Deutsche Bank's Interest Payment Risk in 2016**: The huge loss in 2015 led to concerns about its AT1 bond interest payment ability, causing a sharp decline in the European bank AT1 market. After Deutsche Bank announced a bond repurchase, market sentiment eased [83]. - **Deutsche Bank's Non - Redemption Cases in 2020 and 2025**: In 2020, it was due to the lower reset coupon compared to the refinancing cost; in 2025, it was to reduce exchange losses. Non - redemption may send a negative signal to the market [90][91]. - **UBS's Full Write - down of Credit Suisse's AT1 Bonds in 2023**: This event violated the traditional "debt before equity" repayment order, causing market concerns. It highlighted the importance of the "write - down clause" in AT1 bonds, regulatory powers, and regulatory differences [101][103][111]. - **Banco Popular Español's Case in 2017**: The bank's financial situation deteriorated rapidly. After being recognized as "failing or likely to fail" by the ECB, its AT1 bonds were first converted into shares and then fully written down, revealing the risk of regulatory judgment [112][115][118]. - **Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's Case in 2017**: After multiple self - rescue failures, the Italian government intervened. As a condition for state aid, the bank's AT1 bonds were forcibly converted into common shares, indicating that subordinated creditors will bear losses first in case of government assistance [119][123][124]. - **Bank of Jinzhou's Interest Payment Cancellation in 2019**: The direct reason was that the capital adequacy ratio did not meet regulatory requirements. After the cancellation, the bond price dropped, and it affected investors' confidence in other small and medium - sized Chinese banks' AT1 bonds [125][129]. 3.3 Pricing of Overseas Bank Bonds - **Pricing Drivers**: The pricing of overseas bank bonds is driven by the benchmark interest rate and credit spread. The spread of bank subordinated bonds is mainly affected by risk events, while that of ordinary bank bonds is dominated by liquidity premium [134]. - **Spread Composition**: The bank bond spread consists of liquidity premium and credit risk premium. Subordinated bonds such as AT1 and AT2 have a variety premium compared to ordinary bank bonds, which is an important part of the credit risk premium. Internationally, the spread between AT1, AT2, and ordinary bank bonds is larger, and AT1 is often classified as high - yield bonds [134].

宏观 10 月 FOMC：鲍威尔意外表示 12 月 降息仍有变数 证券研究报告 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，并宣布 12 月 1 日开始结束缩表，但鲍威尔 称 12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），表态偏鹰派。 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，基准利率降至 3.75%-4%，Miran 要求降息 50bp，而堪萨斯联储主席施密德要求不降息；同时，联储宣布从 12 月 1 日 起停止缩表。会前市场普遍定价联储 12 月会议再降息 25bp，但鲍威尔在记 者会中表示，12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），需观 察后续数据再做决定。鲍威尔表态偏鹰派导致市场降息预期回落，美元有所 回升。截至北京时间凌晨 4:30，相较会议前，对 2025 年 12 月、2026 年降 息预期分别收窄 4bp、1bp 至 17bp、69bp；2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 8bp、6bp 至 3.59%、4.07%；美元指数上涨 0.4%至 99.2；标普 500、道指 分别下跌 0.2%、0.4%，纳指基本持平，黄金下跌 1.1 ...

Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with Chairman Powell indicating that December's rate cut remains uncertain, leading to a decrease in market expectations for future cuts [2][3] - The Chinese Yuan has appreciated by 2.8% against the US dollar this year, with a notable 12% increase against the Japanese Yen since July, indicating a shift towards an "independent trend" in the Yuan's valuation [2][3] Fixed Income - In October, the People's Bank of China announced a resumption of bond purchases, leading to a significant rise in government bond futures [5][6] - The US financial sector is seeing a new model of support for national strategy, with JPMorgan's $1.5 trillion initiative focusing on key industries and supply chain resilience [6] Energy and New Energy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of new energy storage and smart grid infrastructure, benefiting companies in the storage and wind power sectors [10][11] - A significant $80 billion investment in nuclear power by Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management aims to enhance energy infrastructure in the US [11] Real Estate - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a shift towards high-quality development in real estate, focusing on improving housing quality and supply systems, which may enhance long-term value in the sector [13] Financial Services - The brokerage sector is experiencing a slight decrease in positions, with a focus on high-quality financial strategies amid a recovering market sentiment [9] - The banking sector shows signs of improvement, with a notable increase in credit issuance and a stable asset quality outlook [23] Key Companies - Huafeng Measurement Control reported a 67.21% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, driven by cost reduction and improved testing performance [17] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry's Q3 revenue showed a 6.03% quarter-on-quarter increase, benefiting from a recovery in coal prices [18] - Kweichow Moutai's Q3 revenue growth was lower than expected, but the company is implementing strategies to boost market confidence [19] - Guangdong Investment's Q3 performance reflects a stable business model with strong cash flow, supporting high dividend returns [20] - Yutong Bus reported a 32.27% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, driven by strong export performance [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown steady profit growth and is actively developing new materials, with a revenue increase of 14.50% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching 811 million yuan [2][3] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 2025 was 180 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.64% [2][3] - The gross margin improved to 23.20% in Q1-Q3 2025, up from 21.8% at the beginning of the year, aided by the growth in its energy-saving and environmental protection business [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 811 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.50% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.46% [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue was 2.326 billion yuan, up 20.49% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, reflecting a 16.64% increase [2][3] Business Development - The company is actively expanding into strategic emerging fields with new materials, including rare earth separation and lithium extraction [4] - The subsidiary, Sanuo New Materials, has established long-term partnerships with major rare earth suppliers [4] - The company's main products in the target material business include high-purity molybdenum and tungsten targets, which are essential for display panels and photovoltaic applications [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 232 million yuan, 258 million yuan, and 310 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.22, 0.25, and 0.30 yuan [5] - The report assigns a target price of 9.64 yuan for 2026, based on a PE ratio of 20.3X for energy-saving and environmental protection business and 57.4X for new materials [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting a positive long-term outlook based on its strong self-research capabilities and operational efficiency [1]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.968 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 129.19% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 42.37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 569 million RMB, up 307.70% year-over-year and 57.58% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the forecast range [1][2]. - The significant revenue growth in Q3 was primarily driven by the successful launch of "杖剑传说" (Zhang Jian Chuan Shuo) and the mini-game "道友来挖宝" (Dao You Lai Wa Bao), which operated for a full quarter [2]. - The company’s overseas revenue reached 588 million RMB in Q3, a year-over-year increase of 59.46%, supported by the international version of "杖剑传说" [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.486 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 59.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.214 billion RMB, up 84.66% year-over-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 94.59%, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.1 percentage points and a year-over-year increase of 5.56 percentage points, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas revenue [4]. Product Performance - The Q3 revenue from "杖剑传说" (mainland version) was 742 million RMB, while the overseas version generated 478 million RMB. The mini-game "道友来挖宝" contributed 316 million RMB in revenue from Q1 to Q3 [2]. - The company anticipates continued performance from existing products, despite a natural decline in revenue from older titles [2]. Future Outlook - The company has a robust pipeline of upcoming products, including "问剑长生" (Wen Jian Chang Sheng) expected to launch in H2 2025 in regions like Hong Kong, Macau, and South Korea, which will further enhance overseas revenue [3]. - The anticipated release of the strategy game "九牧之野" (Jiu Mu Zhi Ye) is expected to validate the company's capabilities beyond the MMO genre [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.63 billion RMB, 1.82 billion RMB, and 1.93 billion RMB, respectively. The target price is set at 565.66 RMB, based on a 25X PE for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 showed a revenue of 3.926 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.04% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6.79%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 904 million RMB, with a year-over-year increase of 31.42% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 28.37%, attributed to the rising molybdenum prices [1][2] - The company is a leader in the molybdenum industry and is expected to benefit from the rising prices of molybdenum in the short term, alongside a consistent high dividend payout and share buybacks by major shareholders [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 10.885 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 7.80%, and a net profit of 2.286 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 4.17% [1] - In Q3 2025, the average price of domestic molybdenum concentrate rose significantly by 19.2% to 4,269 RMB per ton, which contributed to the company's improved profit margins [2] Resource Acquisition - The company increased its molybdenum resource reserves by acquiring a 24% stake in the Shapinggou Molybdenum Mine from Zijin Mining, which holds a total molybdenum resource of 2.1 million tons with an average grade of 0.187% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the molybdenum price assumptions for 2025-2027, leading to an increase in the company's net profit forecast to 3.179 billion RMB, 3.285 billion RMB, and 3.400 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting increases of 7%, 6%, and 5% compared to previous estimates [4] - The target price for the company is set at 17.24 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9X for 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.53 RMB [7][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.66 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.12%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 201 million RMB, down 45.21% year-on-year and 3.11% quarter-on-quarter, which was below expectations [1]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability in Q4 2025 due to the arrival of peak season and the effects of price increases [1][4]. - The company has been optimizing its network resources and leveraging automation to reduce costs faster than revenue growth, which is expected to enhance profitability in the medium to long term [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 6.68%, down 1.86 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.83 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company has shown excellent cost control with a period expense ratio of 3.6% [3]. - For the first three quarters, the company reported a total revenue of 37.49 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 730 million RMB, down 48.15% year-on-year [1]. Market Position - The company’s average revenue per package improved compared to the industry, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% in average price per package, reaching 1.95 RMB. However, the volume growth was slower than the industry average [2]. - The company’s pricing recovery has been slower than the industry but has shown better recovery levels, with average prices increasing in August and September [4]. Profitability Forecast - The report has adjusted the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards, with expected net profits of 1.26 billion RMB, 1.98 billion RMB, and 2.33 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.73% [5]. - The target price has been revised down to 8.53 RMB from a previous 9.55 RMB, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 221.67 RMB [7][5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 582 million RMB in Q3, representing a year-over-year increase of 70.29% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 10.29%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 60.32 million RMB, up 282.31% year-over-year and 20.35% quarter-over-quarter [1][2] - The company has seen continuous revenue growth for six consecutive quarters, driven by demand in industrial, automotive, communication, and consumer electronics sectors, along with effective cost control leading to significant profit elasticity [1][2] - The integration of the acquired company, Chuangxinwei, is progressing well, enhancing competitiveness in various markets [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 582 million RMB, a 70.29% increase year-over-year and a 10.29% increase quarter-over-quarter. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.531 billion RMB, up 80.47% year-over-year [2][1] - The net profit for Q3 was 60.32 million RMB, an increase of 282.31% year-over-year and 20.35% quarter-over-quarter [1][2] Market Performance - The company is benefiting from a recovery in demand in the industrial and automotive markets, with successful progress in domestic production [1][5] - The company has established deep collaborations with several Tier 1 automotive manufacturers, resulting in a doubling of customer numbers year-over-year [4] Product Development and Integration - The company continues to expand its product offerings in the signal chain and power management sectors, with new products targeting communication, automotive, and industrial applications [3] - The integration of Chuangxinwei has shown significant results, with a 22.5% year-over-year revenue growth for the acquired entity [3] Future Outlook and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to 2.13 billion RMB, 2.78 billion RMB, and 3.51 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 3.6% to 3.5% [5] - The net profit estimates for the same period have also been revised upwards to 188 million RMB, 357 million RMB, and 542 million RMB, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.70 [2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of RMB 7.097 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 280 million, down 12% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 22.528 billion, an 8.6% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 13% year-on-year [5][6]. - Natural gas sales and wholesale volumes saw significant growth, with total natural gas sales reaching 5.030 billion cubic meters, an 18.5% year-on-year increase. The wholesale volume surged by 167% year-on-year, becoming a core growth driver. The company optimized gas source procurement to support stable business growth [6][7]. - The smart services segment negatively impacted overall performance, while the photovoltaic film and integrated energy businesses showed strong results. R&D investment increased by 26.6% year-on-year, focusing on technology upgrades and product innovation [7][8]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: RMB 28.348 billion in 2024, RMB 30.152 billion in 2025, RMB 30.982 billion in 2026, and RMB 33.804 billion in 2027. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 1.457 billion in 2024, RMB 1.579 billion in 2025, RMB 1.918 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% from 2025 to 2027 [4][9]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 13.33 in 2024 to 10.13 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [4][9]. Business Developments - The company completed the issuance of its third phase of technology innovation bonds, raising RMB 1.5 billion to support business development. Additionally, it plans to participate in the expansion of the Yuan Zhi Xing Chen Fund, which focuses on sectors like semiconductors and new materials, aligning with the company's strategic direction towards new productive forces [8][9]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reducing net profit estimates by 5.3%, 8.0%, and 7.7% respectively, due to the impact of the completion of the "bottle-to-pipe" project and a downward revision of smart service revenues [9][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 18.80 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 6.26 billion in Q3, representing a year-over-year increase of 2.04% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.19 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 25.15% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 18.20 billion, up 5.66% year-over-year, with a net profit of RMB 3.37 billion, reflecting an 18.15% increase year-over-year [1]. - The company has been optimizing its product structure and is expected to enhance profitability further with the commissioning of ongoing projects [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q3, the company sold 5.2 million tons of surfactants, a 10% increase quarter-over-quarter, with an average selling price down by 5%. The strategic emerging sector saw a 17% increase in sales volume [3]. - The average price of key raw materials, propylene oxide and ethylene oxide, decreased by 16% and 2.7% respectively in H1 2025, contributing to a 1.3 percentage point increase in overall gross margin to 26.4% [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 4.8 billion, RMB 5.5 billion, and RMB 6.3 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with respective growth rates of 22%, 14%, and 15% [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 0.82, RMB 0.94, and RMB 1.07 respectively [4]. Market Position - The company is actively advancing its high-end functional materials project, with an annual capacity of 330,000 tons, expected to begin trial production in the first half of 2026 [3].