证券研究报告 兴业银行 (601166 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递—兴业银行： 负债成本优化，资产结构调优 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地 | 全国性股份制银行 | 6 月 4 日兴业银行出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司分享近 期经营变化和后续展望。我们认为主要关注点包括： 1）负债成本后续或仍 有优化空间。2）公司预计今年新发生不良及减值计提同比回落。3）公司着 力调优资产结构，聚焦支持实体经济。 聚焦支持实体，负债成本优化延续 兴业注重高质量发展，压降票据、同业资产等低收益资产，增加一般性贷款 投放，并重点投向绿色、科技、高端制造业，持续调优资产结构，服务实体 经济。我们预计定期存款占比仍有优化空间，随较高成本负债到期，低成本 负债置换，负债端成本预计延续改善趋势，对冲贷款定价下行压力，全年息 差降幅预计约 10bp。截至 6/4，兴业可转债余额 414 亿元，在流通市值占 比 8%，若全部转股有望提升核充率 0.53pct。福建省财政厅已于 2025/5/14 和 ...

证券研究报告 零跑汽车 (9863 HK) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 新车周期强劲，全球化稳步推进 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港 | 乘用车 | 6 月 4 日零跑汽车出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司重申发 展战略，沟通了 1-5 月销量和车型规划，维持全年销量 50-60 万辆目标。25 年公司将迎全球化新车周期，配合渠道端提前布局和下沉，LEAP3.5 架构 进一步集成降本，叠加战略合作逐步贡献增量，我们预计公司 25-27 年营收 将保持高速增长且毛利率持续提升，25 年有望实现全年盈利。维持买入。 25 年迎强势新车周期，1-5 月累计销量同比+161%，全年目标 50-60 万辆 公司销量表现亮眼，1-5 月累计销量同比+161%达 173658 辆。受益于规模 效应+销量结构优化+成本管理，24Q4/25Q1 毛利率为 13.3%/14.9%连创历 史新高。公司 25-26 年将迎密集的全球化新车投放，ABCD 四大平台协同发 力，其中 A 平台定位入门级，B ...

证券研究报告 中国平安 (2318 HK/601318 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 拟发行可转债，NBV 或稳健增长 | 华泰研究 | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 保险 | 6 月 4 日中国平安出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司对 4 日拟 发行 H 股可转债的公告进行介绍，阐述了当前业务发展状况并进行前景展望。 寿险：NBV 有望稳健增长 分渠道看，今年以来公司银保渠道业务快速增长，1Q25 渠道 NBV 同比强 劲增长 171%。2023 年银保渠道推行"报行合一"，2024 年取消了一家银 行网点只能销售三家保险公司产品的"一对三"限制，银保渠道竞争环境持 续优化，平安大力发展银保渠道，我们认为公司合作的银行网点数量有望持 续提升。代理人渠道增长亦保持韧性，1Q25 在价值率提升的驱动下，渠道 NBV 同比增长 12%。我们认为，今年 9 月份行业预定利率或再次下调，有 望提升产品盈利性并带动销售动能改善。考虑到产品利润率有望持续改善以 及银保渠道强劲销售态势，我们预计 2025 全 ...

证券研究报告 海丰国际 (1308 HK) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 关税缓和推升运价，区域市场显韧性 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港 | 水路运输 | 6 月 4 日海丰国际出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司表示： 1）4 月以来，关税政策反复，但亚洲区域内货量显韧性，我们预计公司 4-5 月货量稳中向好；2）5 月中美关税缓和，货主集中发货，导致短期市场供 需错配，推升美线运价；3）公司专注亚洲区域内市场，看好产业重塑带动 原材料、半成品和成品在区域内流通，为公司中长期货量增长提供潜能。 东南亚市场受益于产业重塑，区域内货量显韧性 4 月 10 日美国宣布对东南亚多国暂缓关税，东南亚线货量在短暂扰动后， 周环比回升。4 月 10 日以来，东南亚货量及运价整体稳中向好。1）根据上 海航运交易所数据，4/5 月东南亚集装箱运价指数均值环比+6.9%/-6.1%（同 比+60.1%/+2.3%，主因上年 4 月低基数）。2）根据 Clarksons 数据，4 月 亚洲区域内集装箱 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][8]. Core Views - The company is characterized as a growth-oriented and stable operator in the copper mining sector, with recent discussions on key events such as the spin-off listing in Hong Kong, acquisition of Zangge Mining, and the suspension of operations at the Kamoa Copper Mine [1]. - The spin-off of Zijin Gold International aims to create an independent financing platform and enhance the valuation of gold assets, with a planned issuance of up to 15% of the total share capital [2]. - The completion of the acquisition of control over Zangge Mining (increased stake to 26.18%) is expected to facilitate further control over the Jilong Copper Mine and improve operational synergies in the salt lake sector [3]. - The Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine has experienced temporary production suspension due to seismic activity, but the impact on the company's overall production and profits is considered limited [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits for the years 2025 to 2027 to be RMB 44 billion, RMB 46.5 billion, and RMB 51.8 billion respectively, with a projected revenue increase of 13.73% in 2025 [5][7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.52, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 26.1% [7][8]. - The report provides a valuation based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10/20/13 for 2025, with target prices set at RMB 22.49 and HKD 21.73 for A/H shares [5][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 28.50 [7]. Core Views - The company emphasizes that despite short-term performance pressure due to a warm winter and tariff impacts leading to a slight decline in retail gas volume, it aims to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [1]. - The report suggests that the increase in sustainable profit contribution and improved free cash flow will lead to a revaluation of the company's value, indicating a potential buying opportunity after recent price corrections [1]. Summary by Sections Retail Gas Volume and Margin Improvement - From January to April, the company's retail gas volume experienced a slight year-on-year decline, which was less than the national average decline of 2.2%. Industrial gas volume decreased due to tariff impacts on the export industry, while residential gas volume grew, supported by an increase in connected users. However, the average household gas consumption declined due to the warm winter [2]. - The overall gross margin improved slightly year-on-year, with better recovery in residential gross margin compared to the overall margin, and stable gross margin in industrial and commercial sectors. LNG spot prices have decreased, which is expected to further lower procurement costs in 2025 [2]. Impact of Real Estate Downturn and Service Segmentation - The company reported a year-on-year decline in new residential connections from January to April, with expectations of a 20% decrease in new home connections for 2025. The proportion of old home renovations is expected to rise to 30%, which may continue to suppress profit margins [3]. - There is a divergence in performance between comprehensive energy and comprehensive services, with comprehensive energy revenue growing year-on-year, while comprehensive services remained flat due to public sentiment impacts and government oversight [3]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure Optimization - The company has officially launched a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase up to 3% of its shares, which would require approximately HKD 1.5 billion based on the closing price on June 4. The company has also committed to increasing the dividend payout ratio for 2025, with total dividend expenditure expected to be no less than HKD 2.1 billion if the DPS remains flat year-on-year [4]. - Capital expenditures are being optimized, with regular expenditures directed towards comprehensive energy, while there is limited room for reducing expenditures related to pipeline replacement and new connections [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at HKD 4.4 billion, HKD 4.9 billion, and HKD 5.5 billion respectively, and EPS projected at HKD 1.90, HKD 2.13, and HKD 2.38, reflecting a CAGR of 10% over three years [5]. - The target price of HKD 28.50 is based on a 15x PE for 2025E, which is above the five-year historical average of 12x PE. The increasing contribution of sustainable business profits is expected to reduce performance uncertainty and lead to a revaluation of the company's value [5][11].

证券研究报告 兴业银行 (601166 CH) 5 月 7 日兴业银行获批筹建金融 AIC（注册资本 100 亿元），为首家获批的 全国性股份行。通过设立 AIC 可整合集团资源，提供"股债贷"等综合金 融服务，满足企业多元化融资需求，更好发挥兴业"商行+投行"优势。Q1 中收增速回暖，主要受益于资管类中收的恢复性增长。一季度债市波动，其 他非息收入增速回落。兴业把握市场波段机会，稳步提升债券交易能力。 资产质量稳健，新发生不良回落 重点领域资产质量维持稳健，关注零售潜在压力。兴业预计 25 年新发生不 良和减值计提同比回落。分领域看，对公房地产、信用卡、地方政府融资平 台三大重点领域不良生成高峰均已过，后续主要关注零售消费贷、经营贷资 产质量潜在压力。25Q1 末不良贷款率、关注率、拨备覆盖率分别为 1.08%、 1.71%、233%，分别环比+1bp、持平、-4pct。不良率略有波动，主要因一 季度不良资产司法追偿和处置等还处于流程中，处置效果尚未显露。 盈利预测与估值 2025 年中期策略会速递—兴业银行： 负债成本优化，资产结构调优 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 173.70 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing sustained demand growth, particularly in the AIoT sector, with significant opportunities in smart home applications and AI toys [2][4]. - The company plans to raise funds through a private placement to enhance its product lineup, focusing on Wi-Fi 7 and AI edge chips, which will support long-term growth [4][5]. - The developer ecosystem is thriving, with over 140,000 open-source projects on GitHub, indicating strong community engagement and innovation [3]. Summary by Sections Demand and Growth - In Q1 2025, the company reported a 30% year-on-year revenue growth in the smart home sector, with faster growth in industrial, energy, and healthcare markets [2]. - The company anticipates continued demand growth in Q2, driven by new applications such as AI toys [2]. Product Development and Strategy - The company is focused on a "processing + connectivity" strategy, with ongoing product upgrades and a commitment to maintaining a gross margin target of 40% [2][5]. - New products, including the P4, are entering mass production, while older products like ESP8266/ESP32 are seeing extended lifecycles due to high customer loyalty [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 2,632 million in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 461.47 million, reflecting a 36% increase from the previous year [7]. - The expected EPS for 2025 is RMB 2.94, with a projected net profit margin of 17.53% [7]. Capital Raising and Investment - The company plans to raise up to RMB 1.778 billion through a private placement, allocating funds for Wi-Fi router chips, AI edge chips, and the construction of a research center [4]. Market Position - The company aims to maintain its leading position in the Wi-Fi MCU market and expects the revenue contribution from smart home products to continue evolving [2].

证券研究报告 南京银行 (601009 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 业绩稳健增长，转债强赎可期 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地 | 区域性银行 | 6 月 4 日南京银行出席我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，核心要点包括：1） 预计全年信贷同比多增，但零售需求与风险改善趋势仍待观察；2）存款迎 重定价高峰，负债成本持续优化；3）转债转股可期，夯实公司资本。 信贷有力投放，资产质量稳健 南京银行 24 年/25Q1 贷款同比+14.3%/+14.7%，新增贷款 1573/897 亿元。 Q1 信贷有力投放，为全年奠定较好基础，公司预计能够顺利完成目标，实 现同比多增。年初以来零售投放回暖，主要系按揭增势较好。消费贷方面， 南银法巴在两年快速增长后逐步进入稳定期，平台贷款方面更加谨慎，今年 整体会在管控风险的前提下进行零售投放安排。资产质量表现看，公司不良 走势平稳，25Q1 不良率环比持平至 0.83%。零售不良生成短期或仍有波动， 但随存量不良出清，更多核销资源向零售倾斜，25Q1 零 ...

证券研究报告 招商蛇口 (001979 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 拿地力度增强，积极推动证券化 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地 | 房地产开发 | 6 月 4 日招商蛇口出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司就近期 运营情况进行交流，去年四季度以来公司投拓力度显著增强，多 REITs 平 台助力资产证券化，融资成本持续优化，维持"买入"评级。 开发业务：销售降幅收窄，投拓积极性提升 2025 年前 4 月，公司累计销售面积达 205.9 万方，销售额 498.3 亿元，同 比分别-20.06%/-15.29%，销售额降幅较 24 年收窄 10pct。销售均价显著提 升，前四月销售均价为 2.4 万/平，同比增长 6.0%。拿地方面，今年投资强 度显著加强，前 4 月拿地强度逾 50%，较去年的 22%大幅提升。 资管业务：持有物业布局全面，借力 REITs 推进资产证券化 (16) (4) 8 19 31 Jun-24 Oct-24 Feb-25 Jun-25 (%) 招商 ...