证券研究报告 石油天然气 关税扰动需求，OPEC+超预期增产 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 24 日│中国内地 行业月报 关税政策施压需求叠加 OPEC+超预期增产，油价跌至近四年低位 3 月伴随美国对俄、对伊制裁引发的供应担忧削弱，叠加 OPEC+决定按计 划于 4 月逐步增产，并公布超产补偿计划，国际油价先回落后反弹。4 月以 来，关税政策施压石油需求叠加 OPEC+上调 5 月产量目标，供需格局趋弱 致国际油价显著下挫，据 Wind，4 月 22 日 WTI/Brent 期货价格较 3 月末下 跌 10.9%/9.8%至 63.67/67.44 美元/桶。我们认为制裁和关税等贸易摩擦， 以及 OPEC+增产计划和超产补偿执行力度，在全球石油需求前景偏淡的背 景下为短期重要边际影响因素；长期而言，油价中枢存底部支撑，具备增产 降本能力及天然气业务增量的高分红能源寡头企业或将显现配置机遇。 需求侧：北半球传统淡季，美国"对等关税"加剧需求担忧 据 IEA，关税等贸易摩擦致全球宏观经济及石油需求前景偏淡，预计 25/26 年全球石油需求增量分别为 73/69 万桶/天（25 年前值为 100 万桶/天），下 ...

证券研究报告 佳缘科技 (301117 CH) 下游需求向好，AI 和商密赋能后续发展 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 24 日│中国内地 | 航空航天 | 佳缘科技发布 24 年年报和 25 年一季报，2024 年实现营收 3.37 亿元 （yoy+48.11%），归母净利 1144.54 万元（yoy+313.82%），低于我们此前 2078 万元归母净利的预期，主要系公司 24 年计提减值损失较多。24 年公 司通过扩大业务拓展提高公司的市场有效竞争能力，业绩实现较快增长。25 年一季度公司实现收入 2212 万元（yoy+35.66%），归母净利-1441 万元 （yoy+8.83%），收入保持了增长态势。考虑到当前网络信息安全行业对保 障国家安全、经济社会稳定运行起到重要的支撑作用，我们预计公司下游需 求将保持高景气，公司业绩未来三年有望实现较快增长，维持"买入"评级。 三大业务均实现增长，整体毛利率小幅下滑 24 年公司军工业务实现收入 2.76 亿元（yoy+50.47%）；医疗业务实现收入 4774 ...

证券研究报告 洽洽食品 (002557 CH) 25Q1 收入利润双承压，期待逐步改善 | 华泰研究 年报点评 | | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 24 日│中国内地 食品 | 公司 24 年收入/归母净利/扣非净利 71.3/8.5/7.7 亿，同比+4.8%/+5.8%/ +8.9%；24Q4 营业收入/归母净利/扣非净利 23.7/2.2/2.2 亿元，同比 +2.0%/-24.8%/-24.7%，符合前次业绩快报（预计 24 年收入/归母净利 71.3/ 8.5 亿），Q4 由于 KA 主销渠道客流减少、礼盒装产品价格内卷等因素，收 入未能实现显著增长；25Q1 收入/归母净利/扣非净利 15.7/0.8/0.6 亿，同比 -13.8%/ -67.9%/-73.8%，春节错期导致收入下滑，叠加成本上涨、促销增 加，Q1 毛利率/净利率同比-11.0/-8.3pct。展望来看，Q2 低基数叠加成本高 位回落，经营有望环比改善，25 年公司在量贩等新渠道持续导入 SKU，电 商渠道积极调整，海外市场逐步拓展，有望对冲传统渠道量价压力，"买入"。 Q1 销售承压，量贩/电商/海外有望贡献新增量 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 4.04 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.476 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.87%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 90.75 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 137.99% [1]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the exclusion of Youyuan Environment from the consolidated scope, but on a comparable basis, revenue actually increased by 11.53% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively expanding into new markets and applications, with a focus on innovation and product development, which is expected to sustain demand in emerging sectors and home decoration consumption [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the clean air business and energy-efficient business generated revenues of 666.5 million RMB and 776 million RMB, respectively, with a year-on-year change of -32.04% and +19.11% [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 324 million RMB, a decrease of 4.59% year-on-year, while net profit was 33.56 million RMB, an increase of 3.69% year-on-year [1]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The comprehensive gross margin for 2024 was 21.96%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, with the clean air and energy-efficient business gross margins at 31.99% and 13.74%, respectively [3]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 224 million RMB, a significant increase of 222 million RMB year-on-year, primarily due to the collection of receivables [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.13 RMB, 0.17 RMB, and 0.19 RMB, respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.3% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. - The target price is set at 4.04 RMB, based on a PEG ratio of 1.1x for 2025, reflecting the ongoing business transformation and associated uncertainties [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong resilience as a market leader, with significant dividends reflecting management confidence [1] - The integrated advantages in the titanium dioxide sector support good profitability, although margins in iron and titanium products remain under pressure [2] - The industry landscape for titanium dioxide is expected to improve, with dividends and share buybacks showcasing the company's confidence [3] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to ongoing pressures in downstream demand, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to 2.9 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.2 billion RMB respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 27.51 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.17 billion RMB, down 33% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a revenue of 7.05 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 690 million RMB, down 28% year-on-year [1][2] Product Performance - Titanium dioxide sales increased by 8.3% to 1.254 million tons in 2024, with revenue rising by 6.8% to 18.98 billion RMB, despite a 1.3% decrease in average price [2] - The company's gross margin for titanium dioxide improved by 2.8 percentage points to 31.4% due to integrated raw material advantages [2] Market Outlook - The price of titanium dioxide has seen slight increases, with the sulfuric acid method priced at 14,800 RMB/ton and the chloride method at 18,100 RMB/ton as of April 18 [3] - The company is expanding its integrated raw material advantages through ongoing development projects, which are expected to maintain a low-cost competitive edge in the medium to long term [3] Valuation and Estimates - The target price for the company is set at 19.20 RMB, based on a 16x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting a strong market position despite downward adjustments in profit forecasts [4][6] - The company’s estimated EPS for 2025 is projected at 1.20 RMB, with a downward revision from previous estimates [4][5]

证券研究报告 工业 钨丝渗透提速推动格局优化 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 24 日│中国内地 专题研究 钨丝渗透提速，母线高壁垒推动格局优化 金刚线作为光伏硅片切割耗材，受硅片薄片化趋势驱动，线径持续下降。传 统碳钢线线径或接近产业化极限，而钨丝线凭借高强度、断线率低等优势， 随着经济性逐步改善，渗透率快速提升，我们预计 2028 年全球渗透率为 98%，对应 2025-2028 年全球钨丝线需求量 CAGR 达 41%。2024 年金刚 线环节供需错配导致盈利承压，技术迭代驱动行业格局重构。钨丝母线工艺 流程复杂、技术壁垒高，掌握钨丝母线量产工艺有助于降低原材料成本、强 化技术优势，行业集中度或持续提升。 钨丝经济性逐步体现，预计 25-28 年全球钨丝线需求 CAGR 为 41% 为满足硅片薄片化要求并降低切削损耗，金刚线直径持续下降。根据 CPIA 统计，碳钢母线平均直径已从 2018 年的 60μm 降低至 2024 年 35μm，由于 细线化导致最小破断力下降，细线化空间有限，根据 CPIA 预测 2026 年或 降低至 32μm。钨丝凭借抗拉强度高、切片性能优等优势，细线化潜力较大， 目前钨丝 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 45.00 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 703 million RMB, down 42.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.54 million RMB, down 85.2% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to a decrease in overall demand in the integrated stove industry [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its transition to computing power leasing, with revenue from this segment expected to grow as it partners with Suiyuan Technology, a domestic chip unicorn [1][2]. - The company anticipates a stabilization in the integrated stove market as the real estate market recovers, which may lead to a narrowing of revenue declines [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the integrated stove business generated 590 million RMB in revenue, a decrease of 46.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a slowdown in new home sales [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 39.7%, down 9.0 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a shift in product structure [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 3.8%, down 10.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 104 million RMB, 117 million RMB, and 148 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.75 RMB, 0.84 RMB, and 1.07 RMB [4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from a significant reduction in expense ratios in 2025, which may help to release profits [4]. - The target price of 45.00 RMB corresponds to a 60x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the anticipated growth in the computing power leasing business [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 21.42 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 104.9 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit of RMB 9.2 billion, up 244% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 revenue was RMB 24.3 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 2 billion, marking a turnaround from losses [1][2][4]. - The strong Q1 performance was attributed to favorable pig prices during the off-season and a significant reduction in production costs. The company is expected to continue increasing output and reducing costs in 2025 [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 8.59 million pigs, a 20% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of RMB 15.2 per kg and a production cost of approximately RMB 12.9 per kg, resulting in a profit of RMB 283 per pig, compared to the industry average of RMB 93 [2][3]. - The company aims to sell between 33 to 35 million pigs in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9% to 16%, and plans to increase chicken sales by over 5% [3][4]. Cost Management - The company's total debt ratio has been decreasing quarterly, reaching 51% by Q1 2025. The company has also prioritized shareholder returns, with a total cash dividend of RMB 2.32 billion and share buybacks of RMB 660 million in 2024, accounting for 32% of the net profit [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised upwards by 17% and 29%, respectively. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 9.4 billion, RMB 9.4 billion, and RMB 19.4 billion, respectively [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 11.75 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at RMB 670 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.26%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 43.64% to RMB 75.63 million [1][2]. - The gross margin has declined, primarily due to increased costs associated with new high-speed rail and outdoor screen placements, although revenue from outdoor 3D screens has seen significant growth [2][4]. - The company continues to expand its high-speed rail media network, with 529 signed railway passenger stations and 495 operational stations by the end of 2024 [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to RMB 662.56 million, RMB 773.07 million, and RMB 834.23 million respectively, reflecting a decrease in growth expectations [5][13]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is adjusted to RMB 100.80 million, RMB 131.52 million, and RMB 166.67 million, indicating a significant reduction in expected profitability [5][13]. Financial Metrics - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for 2024 is reported at 33.68%, down 8.27 percentage points year-on-year, with a further decline to 30.11% in Q1 2025 [2][5]. - The adjusted PE ratio for 2025 is set at 47X, with a target price reflecting a 27X PE ratio for the same year [5][17]. Business Segment Performance - The high-speed rail media business generated RMB 564 million in revenue for 2024, a 4.25% increase, while the outdoor 3D screen media revenue surged by 88.85% to RMB 107 million [2][4]. - The outdoor screen business, despite being in a loss position, has shown improvement in gross margin, narrowing from -32% in 2023 to -1.04% in 2024 [4][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its screen structure, reducing the number of less efficient screens, which has led to a decrease in the total number of operational digital media screens [3][4]. - The integration of AI technology in digital content production is expected to enhance operational efficiency and content quality [4].

证券研究报告 北鼎股份 (300824 CH) 继续看好 25 年公司国内业务增长 Q1 国内品牌业务成长积极、海外业务开始承压 国内业务享政策红利：25Q1 品牌国内收入同比+51.4%（收入占比达到 78%），受到国补政策拉动，公司核心品类（蒸锅/电饭煲/养生壶）升级需求 放量。海外业务短期承压：25Q1 品牌海外收入同比+0.63%（24Q1 同比 +28.23%）、ODM 业务收入同比-8.66%（24Q1 同比+32.5%），主因美国关 税政策扰动及客户库存周期调整。展望 Q2，国内业务依然有望受益于以旧 换新政策的逐步深化，同时山姆/抖音等新渠道也有望成为有力补充；而海 外自主品牌及 ODM 业务或仍受关税政策扰动，短期影响仍需观察。 内销优化推动毛利率上行 公司 1Q2025 毛利率为 49.87%，同比+1.15pct，主要系高毛利内销占比提 升及产品结构升级。我们预计 Q2 国内毛利率仍有望受益于以旧换新带来的 产品升级。 25Q1 销售费用率提升，但管理费用管控显成效，整体期间费用率同比下降 25Q1 公司整体期间费用率同比-2.01pct。其中，销售费用率同比+3.39pct （主要受线 ...