证券研究报告 经纬恒润 (688326 CH) 25 年业绩预告扭亏，规模效应凸显 | 泰研: 究 | | --- | | सह | 2026 年 1 月 28 日│中国内地 汽车零部件 公司发布 2025 年年度业绩预盈公告，预计 2025 年年度实现归属于母公 司所有者的净利润与上年同期相比，将实现扭亏为盈，实现归属于母公司所 有者的净利润 0.75 亿元到 1.1 亿元。公司的预盈利润区间下限超过我们此 前预测的 0.66 亿元，我们继续看好公司 2026 年公司规模化效应驱动下的 盈利增长，看好公司 2026 年海外业务落地放量，维持"买入"评级。 2025 回顾：扭亏为盈，研发成果释放与降本增效共同驱动 2025 年公司收入规模的扩大主要受益于前期研发投入的释放，以域控制器 等新产品阵营为代表的核心电子产品实现快速放量，同时原有产品持续迭代 获得更多客户与项目机会，推动整体收入增长。降本增效方面，公司通过 AI 工具优化开发流程、推动国产替代和提升智能制造水平，有效控制各项成本 费用，使毛利率有所提升、期间费用率显著下降，从而对盈利能力改善形成 实质支撑。产品与客户层面，公司电子产品包括区域控制器、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 to 200 million RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.6% to 89.3% [1]. - The company's self-owned brand business continues to show strong growth in Q4, with significant performance from various product lines and collaborations [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the high-end home cleaning and oral beauty sectors, driven by strong brand management capabilities [1]. Summary by Sections Self-Owned Brand Business - The self-owned brand business has shown high growth, with the brand "Zhanjia" expanding its product categories and collaborations with new IPs, achieving a GMV of 350 million RMB across three platforms, a year-on-year increase of 107% [2]. - The brand "Feicui" has launched advanced anti-aging products, contributing to a significant increase in average transaction value [3]. Market Potential - The global AKK bacteria market is projected to reach approximately 325 million USD in 2024, with significant growth expected in the Chinese market [4]. - The company has recently become the exclusive agent for the oral beauty brand "Meisidike" in China, further expanding its brand matrix [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for the self-owned brand business to 108 million, 262 million, and 403 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a positive outlook [5]. - The target market capitalization is set at 17.617 billion RMB, with a target price of 56.64 RMB per share, based on a PE ratio of 38 for the self-owned brand business [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [7] Core Views - Anta Sports announced an agreement to acquire approximately 29.06% of PUMA's shares for €15.06 billion (approximately ¥122.8 billion), becoming PUMA's largest shareholder [1][2] - The acquisition is part of Anta's strategy of "single focus, multi-brand, and globalization," aiming to enhance its global brand matrix and leverage PUMA's strengths in professional sports and fashion [2][4] - The transaction is expected to be completed by December 31, 2026, pending regulatory approvals, and is anticipated to have no impact on Anta's dividend capacity for 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - Anta Sports will pay €35 per share, representing a 63% premium over PUMA's closing price of €21.5 on January 27, 2026 [3] - The acquisition is valued at approximately 0.8 times the expected revenue for FY2027, indicating a reasonable valuation for a global brand [3] Financial Projections - Anta forecasts net profits of ¥130.2 billion, ¥140.1 billion, and ¥155.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - The target price for Anta is set at HKD 109.21, based on a target PE of 20x for 2026 [5] Market Potential - PUMA's revenue in China is currently low, accounting for about 7% in the fiscal year 2024, indicating significant growth potential in the Chinese market [4] - Anta plans to utilize its established "brand + retail" business model to enhance PUMA's operations in China, aiming for growth above the industry average [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 96.40 [1]. Core Insights - The company, Ugreen Technology, is expanding its AI+NAS ecosystem, positioning NAS as a central hub for home data, and has launched the SynCare smart security series [1][6]. - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between RMB 653 million and RMB 733 million, aligning with expectations [1]. - The company is accelerating its penetration into overseas markets while continuously investing in the AI+NAS ecosystem, which is expected to drive growth [1][6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For the fiscal year 2024, the company anticipates revenue of RMB 6,170 million, with a year-on-year growth of 28.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 462.28 million, reflecting a growth of 19.29% [5]. - The company forecasts significant revenue growth in the coming years, with expected revenues of RMB 9,236 million in 2025 and RMB 12,500 million in 2026, representing growth rates of 49.70% and 35.34%, respectively [5]. - The expected net profit for 2026 is RMB 1,000 million, with a year-on-year growth of 41.64% [5]. Product Development and Market Strategy - Ugreen has announced the pre-sale of its AI NAS products, which will be available on Kickstarter in March, showcasing advanced features such as Intel CPUs and AI capabilities [7]. - The SynCare series, which includes smart security products, was showcased at CES 2026, indicating the company's commitment to building a comprehensive smart ecosystem [8]. - The company has reported impressive sales growth in its mobile power and NAS categories, with year-on-year increases of 127% and 227%, respectively, in 2025 [6]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is expected to enjoy a valuation premium due to its overseas market penetration and product category expansion, with a projected PE ratio of 40 times for 2026 [9]. - The target price of RMB 96.40 is based on a 40 times PE ratio, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory and market strategy [9].

证券研究报告 精细运营与供应链提效有望驱动业绩 持续释放 华泰研究 动态点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 万辰集团 (300972 CH) 目标价(人民币): 276.00 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 SAC No. S0570524090003 SFC No. BVO045 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 季珂* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080003 jike@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 石狄 研究员 shidi@htsc.com 吕若晨 研究员 SAC No. S0570525050002 SFC No. BEE828 lvruochen@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 1 月 27 日) | 228.12 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 43,090 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 458.98 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) ...

证券研究报告 基础材料/能源 1 月下旬以来，美国遭遇冬季风暴极端天气已造成部分受灾地区天然气/电力 供应中断、能源价格上涨等影响，其中作为美国化工重要供给区的得克萨斯 州墨西哥湾沿岸炼油、化工等部分工厂开工已受影响。考虑到美国较多大宗 化工品占全球产能比重仍较高，因而本轮寒潮导致的潜在供给下滑或对相关 产品的供应稳定性造成一定冲击。同时，由于我国大宗化工品已步入产能周 期和库存周期双重拐点，海外供给的潜在下滑或助力国内相关化工品开工率 提升及景气率先修复。关注炼油、乙烯、醋酸、MDI、TDI 等，推荐万华化 学、华谊集团、中国石化（A/H）。 美国遭遇寒潮极端天气，部分大宗化工品供给或受到冲击 据财联社、中新网等，美东时间 1 月 23 日以来，美国遭遇大规模冬季风暴， 已致逾 20 个州进入紧急状态，极端天气已造成部分受灾地区人员伤亡、天 然气/电力供应中断、能源价格上涨等影响，且得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸多 家炼油厂、化工厂和制造商已被迫停产。同时，据美国国家气象局，极寒天 气或将持续到 2 月初。由于美国本土炼油、乙烯、醋酸、MDI、TDI 等较多 化工品产能占全球比重较高（2025 年多种产品产能占比在 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 96.40 [1]. Core Insights - The company, Ugreen Technology, is expanding its AI+NAS ecosystem, positioning NAS as a central hub for home data while launching the SynCare smart security series [1][6]. - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between RMB 653 million and RMB 733 million, aligning with expectations [1][6]. - Ugreen's revenue is projected to grow significantly, driven by strong performance in NAS and mobile power products, with sales on e-commerce platforms increasing by 127% and 227% respectively [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 6,170 million (up 28.46%) - 2025: RMB 9,236 million (up 49.70%) - 2026: RMB 12,500 million (up 35.34%) - 2027: RMB 15,611 million (up 24.89%) [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be: - 2024: RMB 462.28 million (up 19.29%) - 2025: RMB 706.14 million (up 52.75%) - 2026: RMB 1,000 million (up 41.64%) - 2027: RMB 1,346 million (up 34.57%) [5]. - The company’s EPS is projected to be: - 2024: RMB 1.11 - 2025: RMB 1.70 - 2026: RMB 2.41 - 2027: RMB 3.24 [5]. Product Launches and Innovations - Ugreen announced the pre-sale of its AI NAS products, which will be available on Kickstarter in March, featuring advanced specifications and AI capabilities [7]. - The SynCare series was showcased at CES 2026, including various smart security products that integrate with NAS for enhanced home security [8]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is expected to enjoy a valuation premium, with a target PE of 40 times for 2026, leading to a target price of RMB 96.40 [9]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 29,044 million, with a closing price of RMB 70.00 as of January 27 [2].

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 28 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：2025 年工企利润增速回正 2025 年全年而言，工业企业盈利增速自 2022 年以来首次转正至 0.6%，而 收入增速则从 24 年的 2.1%略回落至 1.1%，高基数下四季度工业企业盈利及 收入增速整体较三季度有所回落，内外需分化仍在延续。单月而言，12 月工 业企业利润率的提升带动整体盈利增速较 11 月的-13.1%回升至 5.3%，季调 后利润率较 11 月的 4.7%回升至 6.4%。具体而言，出口链高景气度带动计算 机通信、电气机械、专用设备、医药等行业盈利增速改善，有色冶炼及煤炭 开采行业盈利受部分原材料价格上行而回暖，但油气开采、纺织、食品及汽 车制造的盈利仍在偏弱区间。此外，工业企业现金流整体延续改善态势， 2025 年 11 月工业企业现金及短期投资同比较 10 月的 5.4%略回落至 5.1%、 仍高于去年上半年增速水平，11 月流动资产占总资产比 ...

证券研究报告 万辰集团 (300972 CH) 精细运营与供应链提效有望驱动业绩 持续释放 华泰研究 动态点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 石狄 研究员 shidi@htsc.com SAC No. S0570524090003 SFC No. BVO045 目标价(人民币): 276.00 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 季珂* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080003 jike@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 吕若晨 研究员 SAC No. S0570525050002 SFC No. BEE828 lvruochen@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 1 月 27 日) | 228.12 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 43,090 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 458.98 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) ...

证券研究报告 海大集团 (002311 CH) 国内价值属性增强，海外持续高成长 2026 年 1 月 27 日│中国内地 饲料 公司近期上调 2025-2027 年未来三年分红率由 30%至 50%，并向香港联交 所递交了海外业务分拆上市的申请文件。我们认为，当前市场对海大集团国 内业务的分红价值以及海外成长空间仍有预期差，公司 2025 年国内饲料主 业超额优势进一步放大，且单吨盈利壁垒稳固，此外，公司饲料出海持续高 增长，港股上市将加快公司海外产能布局、理顺海外管理与激励思路。重点 推荐国内长期超额优势向分红价值转化、海外盈利水平&成长性双高的稀缺 资产海大集团，维持"买入"评级。 国内主业优势稳固，自由现金流、分红率有望回升 （1）公司国内饲料主业竞争力进一步放大，我们预测，海大集团 2025 年 国内饲料外销量增长约 20%，大幅超出行业约 6%的增速，市占率加速提升； 在激烈的市场竞争下，公司饲料吨毛利长期韧性突出，以 2015 年为基期， 25H1 主要饲料上市公司饲料吨毛利下降 190 元，海大集团仅微降 6 元。我 们认为，公司 2030 年实现国内 4430 万吨饲料产销量目标的确定性不断 ...