Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating for the company to "Accumulate" [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance was under pressure, with a revenue decline of 3.4% year-on-year and a net profit drop of 71.0% due to a decline in traditional offline channels and increased brand expenses and costs [1][6] - There is an expectation for improvement in domestic sales in July, with contributions from e-commerce, membership supermarkets, and overseas market exploration in countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia anticipated to show results in Q3 and Q4 [1][6] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 240 million, 270 million, and 310 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.53, 2.94, and 3.34, reflecting a 20x PE for 2026 [1][6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,848 million, increasing to 2,802 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9% [2][12] - The company’s total market capitalization is 5.4 billion, with a circulating market value of 2.9 billion [3] - The current stock price is 57.86 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 22.8 for 2025 [3][13] Performance Analysis - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 945 million, down 9.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of 75 million, down 55.2% [6][12] - The sales channels showed mixed results, with e-commerce recovering to a growth of 12.4%, while traditional channels faced significant pressure [6][12] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 32.8%, primarily due to rising raw material costs and changes in channel structure [6][12] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in revenue and profit margins in H2 2025, supported by stable cost conditions and improved sales performance [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of brand adjustments and the potential for growth in new product categories and overseas markets [1][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 91.09 billion and 45.40 billion respectively in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2% and 8.9% [1][7] - In Q2 2025, revenue and net profit were 39.65 billion and 18.56 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.3% and 5.3% [1][7] - The company is focusing on accelerating the sales of its flagship products and increasing the proportion of mid-tier products while expanding its international market presence [1][7] - The gross margin in Q2 2025 faced pressure due to increased marketing expenses, leading to a slight decline in profitability [1][7] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the upcoming holiday season as a critical test for demand [1][7] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total market capitalization is 180.52 billion, with a current share price of 1437.04 yuan [3] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) stands at 37.7%, and the debt-to-asset ratio is 14.8% [3] - The report slightly adjusts the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 to 74.13, 79.16, and 83.47 yuan respectively [1][7] - The company’s cash flow from operations in H1 2025 was 13.12 billion, down 64.2% year-on-year [1][7] - The report indicates that the company’s direct sales channel accounted for 44.8% of total sales in Q2 2025, an increase of 3.59 percentage points [1][7] Revenue and Profit Trends - The company’s revenue from its flagship liquor and series liquor in H1 2025 was 75.59 billion and 13.76 billion, representing growth of 10.2% and 4.7% respectively [1][7] - The report notes that the company added 137 new domestic distributors in H1 2025, likely due to adjustments in the distributor structure [1][7] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 49.5% due to increased marketing and sales expenses [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in performance for Q2 2025, with revenue reaching 8.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, and a net profit of 745 million, up 159.6% year-on-year [5]. - The company has revised its AI PCB capital expenditure (Capex) upwards, aiming to accelerate capacity expansion and customer integration in the TMT and small-cap/electronic sectors [1][5]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing hardware innovations and AI integration trends, particularly with major clients expected to drive demand for new products [5]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 16.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%, and a net profit of 1.23 billion, up 57.2% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved to 19.1%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 7.5%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 42.17 billion, with a net profit of 4.50 billion, corresponding to an EPS of 1.94 [10][13]. Business Structure Analysis - Revenue from communication boards was 10.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, while consumer electronics and computer boards generated 5.17 billion, up 31.6% year-on-year [5]. - The automotive and server segments saw revenue of 810 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 87.4% [5]. - The company has established strong capabilities in AI PCB technology, particularly in high-density interconnect (HDI) and substrate-like PCB (SLP) products, with successful entry into the 800G/1.6T optical module market [5]. Future Outlook - The company has increased its AI PCB Capex to over 30 billion New Taiwan dollars (approximately 7-9 billion RMB) for 2025-2026, with nearly 50% allocated for expanding high-end HDI and high-layer count (HLC) capacity [5]. - The company is actively expanding its production capabilities in Thailand and Kaohsiung to meet future demand for high-end products [5]. - The report emphasizes a positive long-term outlook driven by hardware innovations and AI integration, with significant growth expected in the AI-related product segments [5].

推荐（维持） 证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 08 月 12 日 政策点评 两项贴息政策总结和影响 总量研究/银行 2025 年 8 月 12 日央行联合财政部等部门公布了针对个人消费贷款和消费服务 业经营性贷款的两项贴息政策。我们认为这将利好信贷尤其是经营性贷款恢复， 利好银行和宏观流动性。由于贴息贷款经办银行主要是国股行，所以利好国股 行相关贷款领域市占率提高。 ❑ 风险提示：由于贴息政策只针对国股行，可能导致区域行相关领域市占率和 金融生态受损；资金用途监管不严，导致资本市场波动加大；经济恢复不及 预期，资产质量恶化等。 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 11241.9 | 11.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 10642.3 | 12.2 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -5.6 15.9 36.6 相对表现 -8.3 9.8 12.9 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Aug/24 Dec/24 Mar/25 Jul/ ...

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report reviews 5 historical instances of bond bull - to - bear market transitions to provide insights for the current bond market [1]. - The main factor for the bond market's bull - to - bear transition is the recovery of real - entity financing demand, and it's crucial to grasp the timing of the central bank's monetary tightening [7]. - The bond market's interest rate fluctuation center is rising, and a defensive - counterattack investment strategy is suitable, waiting for trading opportunities from stock market rhythm changes [8]. Summary by Directory 2002 - 2020 Five Rounds of Bond Bull - to - Bear Market Review - 2003.9 - 2004.12: Rising inflation and tightened monetary policy led to a bond bear market. The central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio to prevent excessive growth of money and credit [2]. - 2006.11 - 2007.11: Over - heated economy and tightened monetary policy caused the bond market to turn bearish. Strong terminal demand drove inflation up, and the central bank tightened policy to curb over - heating [3]. - 2009.1 - 2009.11: Counter - cyclical policies, economic recovery, and monetary tightening led to a bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.85% to 3.68%, and the market later entered a volatile phase [4]. - 2016.10 - 2017.11: Financial de - leveraging drove the bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.69% to 3.92%, with strict supervision and tight money as the main factors [5]. - 2020.5 - 2020.11: Premature shift in monetary policy and an economic inflection point brought a bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.54% to 3.25% [6]. Characteristics of Bond Bull - to - Bear Transition - The recovery of real - entity financing demand, represented by economic upturn and rising prices, is the main cause of the bond market's bull - to - bear transition. The real - estate cycle has a significant impact on bond market interest rates [7]. - Central bank's monetary tightening occurs in all bond bear markets, but the timing varies according to the macro - economic environment, and grasping this timing is key [7]. Investment Strategy - The "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds is significant this year. Due to changes in inflation expectations, the bond market has declined while stocks have risen since July [8]. - Considering the low long - term interest rates and the possible PPI recovery, there is a risk of long - term interest rate re - pricing, and the interest rate curve tends to steepen [8]. - A defensive - counterattack strategy is recommended. Do not chase when the 10 - year treasury bond rate is below 1.7%, and consider short - term allocation at around 1.75%, waiting for trading opportunities from stock market rhythm changes [8].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" with a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [2][35]. Core Insights - As of June 2025, the total deposit scale in China reached 280.7 trillion, with household deposits at 162 trillion and corporate deposits at 118.7 trillion. The growth rates from 2018 to mid-2025 show household time deposits increased by 165.4%, significantly outpacing corporate deposits [5][9][24]. - The estimated maturity of time deposits in 2025 is approximately 105 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 14 trillion. This includes about 45 trillion maturing in the first quarter, indicating a substantial liquidity source for the capital market [15][30]. - The re-pricing of time deposits maturing from 2022 to 2024 is projected to reduce the annualized cost of liabilities for banks by approximately 1.5 trillion, contributing positively to the banks' interest margins [24][30]. - The liquidity impact of maturing time deposits is expected to create significant market expectations, with potential inflows into the capital market if market sentiment aligns [30][31]. Summary by Sections Current Deposit Scale and Structure - As of June 2025, total deposits in China are 280.7 trillion, with household deposits at 162 trillion and corporate deposits at 118.7 trillion. The growth rates from 2018 to mid-2025 indicate a significant increase in household time deposits [5][9][24]. Maturity Scale and Rhythm of Time Deposits - The estimated total maturity of time deposits in 2025 is around 105 trillion, with a notable increase in the first quarter. The data suggests a growing trend in the maturity of time deposits, which is crucial for liquidity in the capital market [15][30]. Impact on Interest Margins from Maturing Time Deposits - The re-pricing of time deposits maturing from 2022 to 2024 is expected to lower banks' annualized liability costs by about 1.5 trillion, positively affecting interest margins. This is anticipated to alleviate pressure on banks' interest margins starting in the second half of 2025 [24][30]. Liquidity Impact of Maturing Time Deposits - The large scale of maturing deposits is expected to create significant liquidity impacts, with potential inflows into the capital market. However, the transition of wealth into the capital market is viewed as a long-term process rather than an immediate outcome [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company has announced a second stock incentive plan, aiming to grant up to 556,000 restricted shares to 9 core management personnel, representing approximately 0.139% of the total share capital, to further strengthen the core team [5][6] - The company's revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 790 million, 1 billion, and 1.26 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS predictions of 1.98, 2.51, and 3.16, leading to a PE ratio of 37.5x in 2026 [5][6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of no less than 25%, 53%, and 84% for 2025-2027, and net profit growth rates of no less than 16%, 32%, and 45% during the same period [5][6] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.327 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 27%, and is expected to reach 6.694 billion by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 28% [6][9] - The company's net profit for 2023 is estimated at 429 million, with a growth of 61%, and is projected to grow to 794 million by 2025, maintaining a growth rate of 27% [6][9] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 15.8% in 2023 to 20.9% by 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company is focusing on its core apparel business while exiting the real estate sector, which may lead to short-term revenue pressure. However, as consumer demand recovers, the benefits of its multi-brand strategy and upgraded channel structure are expected to materialize [1][6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1979, the company has transitioned from a three-pillar model (apparel, real estate, and investment) to a focus on its core apparel business. The apparel segment has maintained a leading market share in men's shirts and suits for over 20 years. The company officially exited the real estate business in 2024 to optimize its investment structure [6][13]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 141.88 billion CNY, with a net profit of 27.67 billion CNY. The apparel and real estate segments contributed 48% and 53% to total revenue, respectively. The net profit breakdown was 16% from apparel, 6% from real estate, and 80% from investments [6][16]. Apparel Business Strategy - The apparel segment generated revenue of 57.34 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 4.31 billion CNY. The main brand, YOUNGOR, accounted for over 90% of revenue. The company has expanded its brand portfolio to include high-end outdoor and luxury children's wear, with significant growth in sub-brands [6][43][59]. Investment and Real Estate - The company has reduced its real estate activities, with no new projects since 2023, and aims to accelerate the sale of existing inventory. In 2024, real estate revenue was 74.71 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.54 billion CNY. The investment segment has maintained net profits between 1.5 billion to 2.5 billion CNY in recent years, focusing on fashion industry investments [6][7][39]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts revenues of 137.74 billion CNY, 101.73 billion CNY, and 98.22 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 30.10 billion CNY, 32.11 billion CNY, and 34.57 billion CNY. The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 11.4X for 2025 and 10.6X for 2026 [7][8].

Core Insights - The World Robot Conference 2025 has commenced, showcasing over 1,500 exhibits from more than 200 domestic and international robot companies, with over 100 new products launched, marking a record for similar events [2][5][19] - OpenAI released GPT-5, which is now the default model for ChatGPT, demonstrating significant advancements in coding, mathematics, writing, health, and visual perception [2][5][62] - Recent trading hotspots include lithium mining, defense and military, PEEK materials, brain-computer interfaces, and semiconductor chips [2][5][19] Industry Trends - The World Robot Conference emphasizes the theme "Making Robots Smarter and Bodies More Intelligent," highlighting breakthroughs in both software and hardware [5][19] - China remains the largest market for industrial robots, with an expected installation of 290,000 units in 2024, representing a 5% growth and increasing its global market share from 51% to 54% [21][22] - The industrial robot production in China reached 370,000 units in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 35.6% [22] Recent Developments - The release of GPT-5 is expected to boost demand for computing infrastructure, particularly in sectors like industrial automation and healthcare [62] - The brain-computer interface market in China is projected to exceed 3.8 billion yuan by 2025, indicating rapid growth and increasing market share [17] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a price increase due to recent tariffs, which may lead to improved profit expectations for related companies [18] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on sectors with marginal improvements: AI applications, AI hardware, non-bank financials, defense and military, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - Long-term investment should consider the progress of societal intelligence, domestic substitution cycles, and the carbon neutrality initiative [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting to focus on chemical products with significant market potential [4][5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector experienced a 2.33% increase in the first week of August, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.22 percentage points [12]. - The top five performing stocks in the sector included Anli Co. (+51.6%) and *ST Jintai (+19.18%) [12]. - The report highlights the significant price increase of formic acid (+28.62%) and other chemicals, indicating strong market dynamics [3][21]. Industry Performance - The chemical industry had 29 sub-industries rising and 3 declining in the first week of August, with potassium fertilizer leading the gains at +11.61% [2][17]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is reported at 27.11 times, slightly below the average PE since 2015 [12]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest price increases, including formic acid (+28.62%) and dichloromethane (+17.5%) [3][21]. - The price spread for PX (naphtha-based) saw a significant increase of +36.66%, while PTA spread decreased by -52.14% [39][42]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include an increase in polyester filament (+14.71%) and epoxy propane (+12.92%) [60][62]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance, such as Xinyangfeng and Guangxin Materials, which are expected to benefit from ongoing market trends [4].