28 May 2025 | 12:07AM AEST Telstra Group (TLS.AX) Buy Monetizing a Connected Future; with 1¢ p.a. DPS growth and A$7-8bn buy-back capacity | | | Telstra hosted its Connected Future 30 Strategy day on 5/27. In our view the two key takeaways from the update are: (1) Telstra has a clear focus on delivering consistent and predictable earnings growth, through simplifying the business, monetizing its core value proposition of superior connectivity, and maintaining tight cost discipline through a commitment to pos ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - Recent sales growth trends for non-alcoholic beverages have decelerated slightly, with overall dollar sales growth up +3.4% year-over-year for the two weeks ending May 17, 2025, compared to previous periods [1] - Pricing growth has softened to +2.7%, while volume growth remains stable at +0.7% year-over-year [1] - Energy drinks continue to show strong sales growth at +8.3% year-over-year, although this is a slight deceleration from previous periods [7] Summary by Category Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs) - Dollar sales growth in CSDs was up approximately +LSD% and stable sequentially, with pricing growth slightly stronger but offset by weaker volumes [2] - Coca-Cola Company and Pepsico Inc reported dollar sales growth of +2.7% and +0.3% respectively, with volume declines [9] Bottled Water - Dollar sales trends in bottled water were stable sequentially, with growth around +LSD% and stable pricing and volume growth [2] Energy Drinks - The energy drink category saw dollar sales growth of +8.3% year-over-year, with volume growth at +6.7% [7] - Monster Energy Co. (excluding Bang) reported dollar sales growth of +9.5% year-over-year, driven by stable volume growth [7] Salty Snacks - Dollar sales trends for salty snacks modestly accelerated to -0.9% year-over-year, with volume growth at -2.1% [8] - Pepsico Inc's salty snack sales growth was down -3.3% year-over-year [8] Specific Company Trends - PEP's dollar sales growth modestly accelerated sequentially, while MNST (excluding Bang) showed strong and stable growth at +HSD% [3] - KO's dollar sales growth remained stable at +MSD%, with stable volumes and pricing growth [3] - KDP's dollar sales growth was stable at +LSD%, with stronger pricing growth offset by softer volumes [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Ajinomoto with a 12-month target price of ¥4,100, representing an upside of 16.9% from the current price of ¥3,506 [8][10]. Core Insights - Ajinomoto aims to achieve some of its KPIs for 2030 a year ahead of schedule, focusing on cost savings and price hikes while fostering new product development and eliminating sectionalism within the organization [1][6]. - The company expects to achieve its ROE target of 20% in FY3/27 and plans to implement price increases across a wider range of products to secure solid margins [6][9]. - Ajinomoto's overseas sales ratio was 66% in FY3/25, indicating strong international market presence, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from rising demand for seasonings and foods in emerging markets [9]. Summary by Sections 2030 Roadmap - Ajinomoto is targeting to achieve certain KPIs ahead of schedule, including an improved EBITDA margin through expansion into neighboring markets and organic growth [6]. Profitability Improvement Initiatives - The company plans to implement price increases across various product lines while focusing on cost reductions to maintain profitability [6]. FY3/26 Guidance - Ajinomoto believes it can meet its FY3/26 guidance for ABF, which performed well in FY3/25, and acknowledges challenges in achieving significant profit increases in the CDMO segment [6]. New Products and Services - The company has not launched major new products since ABF but is motivated to innovate, with improved cooperation between internal organizations noted as a positive change [6][7]. High-Speed R&D System - Ajinomoto's R&D system focuses on understanding customer needs and completing products ahead of demand, which has been successfully applied in both electronic materials and the food business [7]. CDMO Business Model - Ajinomoto operates an asset-light CDMO business model, leveraging technological advantages to earn licensing income with minimal investment [7]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of ¥4,100 is based on an average EV/NOPAT multiple of 26X for FY3/26E-FY3/27E, reflecting an 18% premium to the sector average [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shennan Circuits is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of Rmb152, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the current price of Rmb108.6 [9][12]. Core Insights - Shennan Circuits is positioned as a key supplier in the high-end PCB market in China, benefiting from domestic AI infrastructure investments, which are expected to drive robust revenue and net profit growth [9]. - The company is experiencing a strong demand for AI-related products, with overall PCB capacity utilization exceeding 90% and AI-related capacity running at full production [3][9]. - The ABF business is in the early ramp-up stage, with expectations of narrowing losses in 2025 due to cost control and increased revenue [4][9]. Summary by Sections Raw Material Costs - Raw material costs, particularly for gold and copper-related materials, are on the rise, prompting Shennan to negotiate prices with suppliers. Gold-related materials account for less than 10% of total procurement [2][9]. - Management plans to pass some of the cost increases to customers due to high overall demand and utilization levels [2]. PCB Outlook - The demand for PCBs is robust, driven by local AI needs, including AI accelerators and high-speed optical transceivers. This demand is expected to improve the product mix and gross margin outlook into 2Q~3Q25 [3][9]. ABF Business Status - The Guangzhou ABF plant reported a pre-tax loss of Rmb550 million in 2024, but management anticipates a reduction in losses for 2025, projecting revenues of over Rmb100 million [4][9]. - Monthly depreciation costs are expected to remain below Rmb30 million, with current costs at Rmb25 million [6][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from Rmb17,907 million in 2024 to Rmb26,694 million by 2027, with net income expected to rise from Rmb1,879 million in 2024 to Rmb4,014 million in 2027 [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Life H, Ping An, and upgrades PICC P&C to "Buy" from "Neutral" [3][7]. Core Insights - Chinese insurers have outperformed the HSI/CSI300 indices since early March, primarily due to fund-flow related factors and expectations of increased inflows into the A-share market [1][8]. - Despite recent share price strength, most insurers are trading at or above 1 standard deviation of their 3-year historical P/B, indicating potential near-term downside risks due to challenging fundamentals [2][8]. - There has been a tangible improvement in shareholder returns, with several insurers announcing stable or progressive dividend targets and considering share buybacks, aligning with government objectives to enhance SOE valuations [3][43]. Summary by Sections Investment Ratings and Price Targets - The report raises FY25E EPS estimates by 3-46% for covered companies, reflecting better-than-expected 1Q25 results and equity market performance [4][56]. - Target prices for PICC P&C are raised to HK$16.10 from HK$12.90, implying a 1.1X FY26E P/B and 9.8X FY26E P/E [4][57]. - Target prices for PICC Group H/A are increased by 20%/11% to reflect new valuations for PICC P&C, while other life insurers see target price increases of 4-10% [4][57]. Market Performance and Valuation - H-share insurers have outperformed since early March by more than 10%, although YTD performance remains relatively unchanged compared to indices [8][9]. - The report notes that long-term bond yields have remained depressed, impacting book value and solvency, with a decline in net investment yield expected due to muted equity market performance [2][25][27]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Management - Several insurers have announced plans for stable or progressive dividends and share buybacks, with PICC P&C positioned to increase shareholder returns due to an excess capital balance of RMB 47 billion as of FY24 [3][43][51]. - China Life is highlighted as having a strong balance sheet but a low current payout ratio, indicating potential for increased shareholder returns [3][43]. Earnings and Profitability Outlook - The report anticipates muted book value growth in 2Q25, with long-term bond yields declining to levels seen at the end of 2024 [27][56]. - Net profit for most life insurers declined in 1Q25, reflecting lower equity investment gains compared to 1Q24, with expectations for small profit growth in 2Q25 but a meaningful year-over-year decline for FY25 [27][38].

Investment Rating - Sawai Group is rated as "Sell" with a 12-month target price of ¥1,650 [2][14] - Toray is rated as "Buy" with a 12-month target price of ¥1,300 [3][15] Core Insights - The Intellectual Property High Court (IPHC) has ordered Sawai Pharmaceutical to pay ¥14.3 billion in damages for patent infringement related to the pruritus treatment Remitch [1][8] - The ruling is expected to negatively impact Sawai Group's share price due to the realization of compensation payment risks and potential strategic implications for its market share growth [2][12] - For Toray, the ruling is seen as a significant win for its intellectual property strategy, potentially leading to a positive impact on its profit and cash flow if compensation is received [3][11] Summary by Sections Sawai Group - The company plans to restate its FY3/25 earnings due to the ruling, with the impact on earnings currently being assessed [8] - Sawai intends to appeal the ruling and is considering all legal measures [8][9] - The ruling may affect Sawai's strategy of increasing market share through its intellectual property and drug formulation technology [12] Toray - The total compensation ordered against Sawai and Fuso Pharmaceutical amounts to ¥21.7 billion, with Toray potentially receiving ¥21.7 billion [11] - The ruling reinforces the strength of Toray's intellectual property strategy and could lead to a considerable impact on its earnings, given its projected net profits of ¥82 billion for FY3/26 [11]

韩国娱乐：HYBE将出售SM股份给TME；正在关注关于S M-TME合作关系的更多细节。 发生了什么？ 27 May 2025 | 11:07PM KST 2025年5月27日，HYBE公司（链接）披露，已同意将其在SM公司（持有10%股权 ）的全部剩余股份出售给腾讯音乐娱乐（TME），总价值为2430亿元人民币，每 股价值11万元人民币（较上次收盘价折让15%）。披露文件指出，该交易将于202 5年5月30日市场收盘后进行。据SM公司称，该公司计划在本周晚些时候公布其与 TME战略合作关系的更多细节。 Eric Cha | eric.cha@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限公司，首尔 分支 +82(2)3788-1799 Lincoln Kong, CFA +852-2978-6603 | lincoln.kong@g s.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Diane Kang +82(2)3788-1030 | diane.kang@gs.com 高盛(亚洲) 有限责任公司 首尔分行 GS观点 K-pop 关注可能推动进一步增长的合作伙伴关系细节： n 自今年早些时候以来，股价强势上涨，主要受对中国可能重新 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates Telstra Group as a "Buy" with a 12-month price target of A$4.90, indicating an upside potential of 3.6% from the current price of A$4.73 [8][9]. Core Insights - Telstra's "Connected Future 30" strategy aligns with expectations, focusing on mobile, digital infrastructure, and cost discipline, with a target of mid-single digit cash earnings CAGR to FY30 [1][2]. - The company aims for a 10% return on invested capital (ROIC) by FY30, which is above the current rate of approximately 8% [2]. - Telstra plans to sustain and grow fully-franked dividends into FY30, with a preference for buybacks over unfranked dividends [3][5]. - The company has over A$20 billion in financial capacity to fund growth by FY30, which includes A$15-16 billion in cash earnings and approximately A$6 billion in debt capacity [5][6]. Financial Targets - Cash earnings are expected to achieve a mid-single digit CAGR to FY30, with underlying income growth outpacing cash EBIT cost growth [2]. - The guidance for FY25 includes free cash flow expectations of A$3.0-3.4 billion and BAU capex guidance of A$3.2-3.4 billion [6]. - Telstra is positioned to become Australia's leading digital infrastructure provider, targeting sustained cash EBIT growth and mid-teens IRR on strategic investments [3][5]. Valuation and Market Position - The report suggests that while Telstra's headline valuation appears full compared to peers, adjusting for unique assets like NBN recurring payments reveals a more compelling multiple [7]. - The potential monetization of InfraCo Fixed assets could yield a value between A$22-33 billion, enhancing the company's financial position [7]. - The recurring NBN payment stream is estimated to be worth A$14.5 billion to A$17.9 billion, providing long-duration cash flows without strategic loss [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month target price of $23.40 for ADR and HK$46.00 for H-shares, reflecting a potential upside of 27.9% and 33.1% respectively [15][17]. Core Insights - Management reiterated its target for accelerated revenue growth in 2025, aiming for a year-on-year increase of 23% compared to 2024, with a focus on achieving low teens percentage growth in Miniso China sales and approximately 40% growth in overseas business [1][5]. - Despite expected slight declines in gross profit margins this year, management anticipates healthy operating profit growth for the year, with margins expected to narrow sequentially in Q2 and return to positive territory in Q3 [1][5]. - The company plans to close 300-400 underperforming or outdated stores in China, with expectations of stabilizing or slightly decreasing the number of new stores in the second quarter, but anticipates a return to store growth in the latter half of the year [1][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Management expects revenue growth to accelerate in 2025, driven by positive sales and store productivity improvements, with a target of opening 500 to 600 new stores, of which 40% to 45% will be DTC stores [5][16]. - For Top Toy, management anticipates a year-on-year revenue growth of approximately 50% to 60% and plans to add 100 new stores [5]. Profit Margins - Operating profit is projected to recover to positive growth in Q3, with a target operating profit of RMB 3.6 billion to RMB 3.8 billion for the year, compared to RMB 3.2 billion last year [5][16]. - Management noted that while the operating profit margin may experience slight declines due to macroeconomic factors and DTC expansion, the pressure on margins is expected to gradually narrow [1][5][7]. Store Network and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network, with plans to close underperforming stores while aiming for a net increase in store count in the latter half of the year [1][11]. - In the U.S. market, Miniso will concentrate on 24 states to achieve better economies of scale and reduce operational costs, while also optimizing its product mix to cater to local consumers [6][10]. Product Mix and Market Adaptation - The product mix includes a focus on toys and lifestyle products, with a strategy to increase local sourcing to mitigate potential tariff risks [10][12]. - Management aims to enhance the contribution of third-party products to diversify the product range while maintaining overall gross margin stability [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Fositek with a 12-month price target of NT$836, representing an upside of 45.6% from the current price of NT$574 [10]. Core Insights - Fositek is expected to benefit from rising demand for ASIC AI servers, which is driving the penetration of liquid cooling components. The company's gross margin (GM) is projected to improve from 22% in 1Q25 to 27% by 2027 [1]. - The shift from air cooling to liquid cooling in ASIC AI servers is anticipated to enhance market opportunities, with next-generation rack-level AI servers potentially utilizing three times more quick disconnects (QDs) per tray compared to previous models [4]. - The foldable phone market is also on the rise, with significant shipments expected, including Huawei's foldable phones, which are projected to support Fositek's revenue growth in 2Q25 [7]. Summary by Sections ASIC AI Servers - The demand for ASIC AI servers is increasing, leading to a higher penetration rate of liquid cooling components. Fositek is expanding its product offerings to include rail kits and liquid cooling components, which are expected to positively impact its gross margin [1][4]. - The company's quick disconnect (QD) technology has gained traction among leading US cloud service providers, with mass production expected to start in 4Q25 [4]. Foldable Phones - The report highlights a growing trend in foldable phones, with significant shipments from major brands like Huawei and Lenovo. This trend is expected to contribute positively to Fositek's revenue in the upcoming quarters [5][7]. - The anticipated launch of more high-end foldable phones in 2H25 is expected to further support revenue growth for Fositek [7]. Financial Projections - Fositek's revenue is projected to grow from NT$8.19 billion in 2025 to NT$22.36 billion by 2027, with corresponding EBITDA and EPS growth [10]. - The report outlines a target P/E multiple of 19.2x based on peer comparisons, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its growth prospects [8].