28日5月2025年 | 上午6:39香港时间 +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@ gs.com 高盛集团（亚洲）有限责任 公司Ting Song +852-2978-6466 | ting.song@g s.com 高盛公司（亚洲）有限责任 公司 GC Telecom：5G BTS月环比下降；4月电信服务收入同 比增长2%。 ：2025年4月，5G基站部署疲软，达44千个，同比减少，截至2025年4月累计基站 部署达440万个；基站产量同比2025年4月增长26%，出口 1) 中国电信服务业收入同比增长2%。 一个强劲的表现： 1) 4月份达到1516亿元人民币，较2025年3月的同比增长0.3%（根据工信部数据） ；2) 2025年4月5G新基站部署增速放缓，新增44万个单位，而2024年4月新增101万 个单位，2025年3月新增70万个单位；3) 5G用户增长增速放缓，2025年4月新增130 0万用户，而2024年4月新增1500万用户。光纤光缆、BTS和PCB出口的海外市场价 值同比增长，而CCL出口价值在2025年4月下降。 艾伦·张 +852-2978-2930 | a ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to Hilton Hotels and a bearish rating to Amorepacific and LG Household & Health Care [2]. Core Insights - The Korean cosmetics industry is experiencing a decline in duty-free sales (DFS), with April 2025 showing a 10% year-over-year decrease, an improvement from a 16% decline in March 2025 [4][6]. - In the U.S. market, Korean cosmetics exports continued to grow, with a 21% year-over-year increase in April 2025, although some brands like COSRX are struggling with inventory issues [11][21]. - The Chinese market is showing a decline in online sales, with major platforms experiencing a 31% to 42% year-over-year drop [2]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Sales Performance - April 2025 DFS revenue reached $822 million, down 10% year-over-year, primarily due to declines in local and foreign sales [4][6]. - The total DFS revenue for April 2025 is 47% of the level seen in April 2019, compared to 39% in March 2025 [7]. U.S. Market Insights - Korean cosmetics exports to the U.S. in April 2025 increased by 13%, contributing to a total export growth of 21% [11][16]. - COSRX's sales on Amazon in the U.S. fell by 38% year-over-year, while Laneige saw a 73% increase in the same period [21][24]. Chinese Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant decline in online sales across major platforms in China, with declines ranging from 31% to 42% year-over-year [2]. - Local brands are gaining market share, with multinational companies experiencing varying degrees of growth and decline [52].

2025年5月27日 | 晚上7:58 EDT Shoals Technologies .SHLS 虚拟投资者会议的要点；买入 | | | 我们举办了一场与SHLS首席执行官Brandon Moss及财务与投资 者关系副总裁Matt Tractenberg的虚拟投资者会议，以讨论关键 竞争动态、近期关税和政策变化的影响、近期及长期需求趋势等 议题。我们此次通话的关键要点已在文中进行了更详细的总结。 Implications Following NXT's recent acquisition of 竞争动态。 eBOS公司Bentek，人们曾担忧SHLS的竞争定位可能存在风险。然 而在我们的电话会议中，SHLS管理层讨论了Bentek历来更多地涉 及组合箱和其他电气外壳，同时还提供一种绝缘刺穿连接器（IPC ）干线总线系统，该系统很少直接与SHLS竞争。重要的是，管理 层指出Bentek的IPC产品与SHLS的BLA产品有几个关键差异，因为 后者是在现场安装而非预组装，并且不具备可持续25-30年的同等 产品质量。因此，这些产品可能更专注于小型站点或对成本更敏感 的客户，而非在速度和质量至关重要的大型项目中。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mitsubishi Electric (Melco) [1][5][22]. Core Insights - Mitsubishi Electric is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from a product sales-based business model to one that leverages data extracted from components, focusing on miniaturization and discontinuing non-strategic businesses [2][5]. - The company plans to invest in data center optical devices instead of power components due to a slowdown in xEV applications, and aims to localize its FA operations [2]. - Melco is targeting a shareholder return rate of 50% or higher and aims to maintain a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.3x [4][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Business Strategy - Melco expects sales to grow from ¥2.1 trillion and an operating profit margin of 6.6% in FY3/22 to ¥2.5 trillion and 9.3% in FY3/26, despite lower-than-expected trends in fixed asset control systems [8]. - The company plans to terminate businesses generating ¥0.5 trillion in sales as part of its portfolio review [8]. Cost Reduction - The company is focused on rapid cost reductions, particularly in China, to address challenges faced by its operations [3]. Capital Allocation - Melco is considering mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in growth sectors such as industrial, HVAC, and AI/digital technologies, with a new M&A budget set at ¥1 trillion through FY3/28 [4][10]. - The company aims to enhance profitability by improving operational efficiency and reallocating resources [10]. Financial Performance - Melco forecasts sales of approximately ¥680 billion for FY3/26, with a target of achieving at least 10% growth in operating profit margin [11][9]. - The company plans to increase production capacity in response to strong orders in its defense business and aims to restore operating profit margins to over 10% through restructuring and cost reductions [5][12]. Semiconductor and Device Business - Melco intends to limit investments in power devices while shifting focus to high-performing optical devices, with plans to accelerate the expansion of its HVDC power module business [20][21]. - The company aims to increase its optical device sales by over 20% annually [21].

28 May 2025 | 7:02PM AEST Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp. (FPH.AX): FY25 Result: Multi-year growth opportunity. Retain Buy FPH delivered a strong FY25 result with total revenue and NPAT broadly in line with our estimates and ahead of Visible Alpha Consensus Data by ~1% and ~4%. Looking ahead - the momentum of FPH's Hospital business (~60% FY25 group revenue) remains solid (Gse: +14% FY26) with key new products including Optiflow Switch and Airvo 3 NIV in the US market not materially contributing to FY26 gu ...

Investment Ratings - Petrobras: Buy with a 12-month price target of BRL 38.80 [18] - Brava Energia: Sell with a 12-month price target of BRL 15.80 [19] - PetroReconcavo: Neutral with a 12-month price target of BRL 16.50 [20] - Ultrapar: Buy with a 12-month price target of BRL 22.40 [21] - Cosan: Neutral with a 12-month price target of BRL 9.10 [22] - Vibra Energia: Neutral with a 12-month price target of BRL 20.30 [23] Core Insights - The report highlights a cautious outlook for oil prices, with expectations of average Brent oil prices at USD 56/bbl in 2026, influenced by solid supply growth outside the US shale [14] - Companies in the oil and gas sector are adjusting their capital expenditure (CAPEX) plans in response to lower oil prices, with Brava already reducing its investment plan for 2025 [2][12] - The fuel distribution segment is facing challenges from inventory losses due to recent price reductions by Petrobras, which may lead to lower margins in the short term [3][8] Summary by Company Petrobras - CAPEX remains resilient with 98% of upstream investments breakeven at or below USD 45/bbl, indicating no major adjustments in the short term [7] - The company is cautious about shareholder remuneration, recognizing potential increases in indebtedness due to lower oil prices [7] - Petrobras aims to avoid passing global market volatility to domestic fuel prices while aligning with international trends [7] Brava Energia - The company plans to deploy USD 450 million in CAPEX for 2025, a reduction from previous plans, primarily affecting onshore investments [12] - Brava expects stable production in the upcoming years, with potential growth in offshore output by 2026 [12] - The decision to cancel the divestment of onshore assets reflects a strategy to maintain a diversified portfolio [12] Vibra Energia - EBITDA in 2Q will be impacted by inventory losses, with a focus on reducing indebtedness through a 40% dividend payout policy [8] - Recent market share data indicates a slight increase in diesel market share, attributed to sales to TRR and unbranded gas stations [8] - The company does not foresee significant impacts from sanctions on Russian diesel imports [8] Ultrapar - The fuel distribution business is experiencing an oversupply effect, but demand is expected to improve in the second half of the year [9] - Ultrapar is positioning Ultragaz for potential investments in renewables, while managing profitability under competitive pressures [9] - The company anticipates leverage to remain within guidance levels despite recent acquisitions [9] PetroReconcavo - The company is maintaining flexibility in capital allocation, with expectations of double-digit production growth this year [12] - It recognizes the need for caution in the current oil price environment but does not plan significant CAPEX adjustments [12] Cosan - Committed to asset sales to improve its interest coverage ratio, with potential working capital pressures from recent IOF changes [13] - Raizen, one of Cosan's investees, is highlighted as being particularly exposed to these changes [13]

Investment Rating - The report rates the Utilities sector as "Buy" with a forecasted average EPS CAGR of +9% over 2024-2029 for the identified 'Electrification Compounders' [7]. Core Insights - The Utilities sector is expected to experience a new era characterized by low-risk, mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth and attractive capital distribution, driven by an inflection in power demand, a pivot in capital allocation, and the need to modernize the power system [1][7]. - European power demand has shifted from a 15-year decline to a projected annual growth of 1%-2%, supported by economic growth, electrification, and datacenters, with expectations for further increases later in the decade [2][15]. - A significant investment of approximately €2 trillion is required over the next ten years to modernize the European power system, addressing the aging infrastructure and rising demand [21][94]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Utilities are predominantly domestic and defensive, with a large share of regulated profits, positioning them well for organic growth due to the inflection in power demand and modernization needs [7]. - The report highlights key stocks such as Enel and SSE, which are expected to benefit from rising power demand and positive earnings revisions [7]. Power Demand - After 15 years of decline, European power demand is expected to grow by 1%-2% annually, with Germany projected to outpace the rest of Europe due to infrastructure investments and electrification [15][65]. - The report notes that power demand in Europe is currently about 10% below 2008 levels, but recent trends indicate a positive shift in consumption [46][49]. Capital Allocation - Over the past three years, capital allocation in the Utilities sector has shifted from top-line growth to maximizing returns, with a focus on modernizing power grids, which is expected to yield double-digit earnings growth [3][69]. - The report emphasizes that capital distribution has become more central, with Utilities increasing dividends and share buybacks [3][69]. Earnings Growth - The modernization of power grids and the focus on maximizing returns are expected to support mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth until the mid-2030s, leading to multiple expansions compared to historical valuations [4][24]. - The Utilities sector is anticipated to gradually re-rate towards the valuation levels of US Utilities, driven by rising power demand and investment needs [24][27]. Investment Needs - The report estimates that the European power system requires around €2 trillion in investments over the next decade, with a significant portion directed towards modernizing transmission and distribution grids [21][94]. - The aging infrastructure, with European grids being 45-50 years old, necessitates urgent upgrades to improve resilience and meet rising demand [21][97].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WEB Travel Group (WEB.AX) with a 12-month target price of A$7.10, representing a potential upside of 35% from the current price of A$5.26 [1][3]. Core Insights - WEB's total transaction value (TTV) reached A$4.9 billion for FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22%. Revenue increased by 1% year-on-year, with EBITDA reported at A$121 million [1][2]. - Management provided guidance for FY26 EBITDA margin between 44% and 47%, down from a previous estimate of 48%, due to investments in hotel contracting teams in the Asia-Pacific and Americas regions. Despite this, confidence in a 6.5% revenue/TTV margin for the medium term remains [3][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the first eight weeks of FY26, with TTV and order volume growing by 28% and 29% respectively, driven by a 36% increase in the Americas [1][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY25, FY26, FY27, and FY28 are A$328.4 million, A$386.0 million, A$450.3 million, and A$507.2 million respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% expected [4][11]. - EBITDA estimates for the same periods are A$120.6 million, A$153.6 million, A$191.2 million, and A$217.5 million, indicating a growth trajectory [4][11]. - The report anticipates a diluted EPS of A$0.20 for FY25, increasing to A$0.44 by FY28, reflecting a strong growth outlook [4][11]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation approach remains unchanged, utilizing an EV/EBITDA multiple adjusted to FY27 EBITDA, with a revised multiple of 12x based on comparable companies [12][15]. - The target price of A$7.10 is derived from a combination of fundamental valuation (85%) and theoretical M&A valuation (15%) [15][12].

分组1 - Investment Rating: Buy for Xiaomi, PDD, Kuaishou, Link REIT, Hesai, and Telstra [1][3][5][9] - Xiaomi's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations with revenue growth of +47% year-over-year to Rmb111 billion and adjusted net profit growth of +65% year-over-year to Rmb10.7 billion [1] - PDD's 1Q25 profit declined significantly due to increased user and merchant investments, leading to a negative share price reaction despite a +15% growth in online marketing revenue [3] - Kuaishou maintained its FY25 guidance and showed sequential improvement in advertising and eCommerce, indicating strong growth momentum [5] - Hesai's 1Q25 results showed a net profit beat driven by higher gross margins and lower operating expenses, with a revised target price increase to US$23.30 [5][9] 分组2 - Key segments for Xiaomi include AIoT and EV, which continue to outperform expectations [1] - PDD's domestic GMV profit margin is expected to stabilize at 2.0% to 2.2% for FY25E to FY27E, down from previous estimates [3] - Kuaishou's strong position in AI applications and better-than-industry ad growth are potential drivers for stock re-rating [5] - Telstra's strategy focuses on consistent earnings growth and maximizing shareholder returns, with a financial capacity exceeding A$20 billion through FY30 [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil industry but discusses various factors influencing oil prices and production levels, indicating a cautious outlook based on current supply and demand dynamics. Core Insights - Crude oil prices have decreased week-on-week ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, with expectations of a final production increase of 411 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in July due to new ex-shale projects entering the market and economic growth deceleration [1] - Geopolitical developments, including US-Iran nuclear talks and sanctions on Russia, have had mixed effects on oil prices, with cautious optimism surrounding negotiations offsetting earlier concerns [2] - Brazil's new FPSO Alexandre de Gusmão began production ahead of schedule, contributing to increased supply, while Norway's production also exceeded expectations [3] - Trackable net supply has increased by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), driven by higher production from Russia and lower demand from China [4] - Global oil demand remains resilient, with Saudi domestic oil demand increasing by 0.1 mb/d year-on-year in April [6] Supply Dynamics - Kazakhstan and Iraq show a decrease in overproduction, but overall compliance improvements among OPEC+ members have been moderate [6] - The US Lower 48 crude production nowcast stands strong at 11.2 mb/d, while Canada’s liquids production nowcast is at 5.8 mb/d, slightly below expectations [14][20] - Russia's liquids production nowcast increased to 10.6 mb/d, while Iran's crude production remains stable at 3.5 mb/d [21] Demand Trends - China's oil demand nowcast has edged down by 0.1 mb/d to 16.7 mb/d, reflecting product stock builds [31] - OECD Europe oil demand has increased by 0.1 mb/d to 13.3 mb/d week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in demand [32] Inventory Levels - OECD commercial stocks have built up by 7 million barrels (mb) to 2,782 mb, which is 7 mb above the end-of-May forecast [40] - Global commercial stocks have increased by 18 mb, indicating a growing supply in the market [40] Price Dynamics - The Brent 1M/36M timespread gap with fair value has narrowed to -8 percentage points (pp), suggesting a normalization in pricing [51] - Average crude basis has increased by 1.1%, while the average crude prompt timespread remained flat [60] Geopolitical and Sanctioned Supply - The report highlights ongoing geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Russia and developments in Venezuela, which could impact supply dynamics [2][69]