两会前瞻与消费地产动向 20260302 摘要 地缘冲突对市场的影响通常是短暂的，中期趋势由宏观基本面决定。油 价上涨引发的通胀预期更具持续性，取决于霍尔木兹海峡的油运状况和 伊朗原油的供应。 霍尔木兹海峡出现船只积压，形成"半堵塞"状态，市场对"可能封 锁"持观望态度。OPEC+确认 4 月增产 20.6 万桶/日，目前该状态对油 价的影响大致对应 10-15 美元的溢价。 若霍尔木兹海峡被完全封锁，油价可能冲击 100 美元以上。新兴市场跌 幅通常更大，港股调整大于 A 股，避险资产相对占优。MSCI 中国指数 中，能源受益，公用事业跌幅较小，成长板块跌幅较大。 恒生科技指数跑输主要受情绪和趋势拖累，美债利率下滑提供支撑。头 部权重股拖累明显，若剔除这些股票，指数表现可能改善。 港股资金面逆风包括美联储政策担忧、港股 IPO 与再融资活跃。人民币 升值并非直接利好港股，可能影响南向资金吸引力。 2026 年港股资金面预计紧平衡，南向资金规模或难超 2025 年。外资 流入取决于基本面改善，资金需求端 IPO、解禁与再融资规模上升。 北京和上海二手房挂牌去化周期已接近或低于历史上房价能够稳住的区 间水平，库 ...

国货美妆站上了前所未有的高点，也正在直面前所未有的考验。 中国香妆协会公布的数据显示，2 0 2 5年国货品牌的市场份额已提升至5 7 . 3 7%，扎扎实实坐稳 了"半壁江山"。过去几年，我们也已经习惯了国货崛起的叙事。流量红利、渠道扩张、爆款频 出，一批品牌快速长大。但规模成型之后，行业开始进入一个新的阶段——不是"淘汰赛"的结 束，而是"能力淘汰赛"的开始。 什么叫能力淘汰赛？ 流量依赖减弱，品牌价值增强；价格竞争趋缓，价值竞争抬头；单一爆款难以支撑长期增长， 系统能力成为新的分水岭。 你会发现，当企业开始反复谈论产业升级与长期主义，当资本市场对利润质量提出更高要求， 当越来越多的品牌把全球布局写入战略蓝图——这些变化其实都在指向同一个方向：国货美妆 正在从"机会驱动"走向"能力驱动"。这些变化同时也是整个行业逐渐步入成熟阶段的信号。 先看几个关键词。 珀莱雅股份总经理侯亚孟用了三个词定义2 0 2 6年的发展准则： 协同、聚焦、体系化 。在内部 沟通中，他强调组织协同效率与资源聚焦的重要性，认为只有体系能力成熟，品牌才具备持续 竞争力。 华熙生物旗下四大核心品牌：润百颜、夸迪、肌活、米蓓尔 这些调整在 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese beauty market is shifting from "incremental dividends" to "stock game," leading international giants to rethink their strategies as traditional high-entry tactics fail [1] - LVMH is reportedly planning to divest several brands, including Make Up For Ever, while Amorepacific is focusing on repeat purchases with its efficacy-driven brand Aestura [1][9] - Sephora is now featuring popular domestic brands that emerged from Douyin, indicating a significant shift in its product selection strategy [2][4] Group 1: Sephora's Strategy Shift - Sephora has introduced a "next hot product" section in stores, showcasing brands like Sanzi Tang and BABI, which previously gained popularity through Douyin [2] - The introduction of these brands is a response to declining sales, with Sephora China reporting a 12.3% revenue drop and a cumulative loss exceeding 1 billion yuan since 2022 [3] - The company is expanding its product range to include more affordable and effective brands, moving away from solely high-end offerings [4] Group 2: LVMH's Brand Management - LVMH is evaluating the sale of brands like Fresh and Make Up For Ever, which have been underperforming, with the latter experiencing eight consecutive years of losses [7][8] - The company aims to focus on core brands that can drive revenue, such as Dior and Guerlain, while divesting from those that do not meet performance expectations [8] - The shift reflects a broader industry trend where luxury brands are reassessing their portfolios and focusing on profitability rather than brand quantity [8] Group 3: Amorepacific's Market Entry - Amorepacific has introduced its efficacy-focused brand Aestura to the Chinese market, targeting the growing demand for post-medical skincare solutions [9][10] - The brand's strategy involves building trust through clinical data and leveraging its reputation in Korean hospitals, although it faces challenges in establishing credibility in China [9][10] - Aestura's success could signify a turning point for Korean beauty brands in China, emphasizing the need for efficacy and repeat purchases over mere brand recognition [10]

刚刚过去的一年，德国特殊化学品公司朗盛在创新和可持续方面继续发力，中国市场业务稳步推进。展 望2026年，朗盛大中华区总裁罗高名(Michael Rockel)表示，朗盛将继续深耕中国，坚持"本土生产、服 务本土"的战略主轴，强化本土创新能力与产业协同，为中国化工行业的发展注入非凡活力。 罗高名介绍说，朗盛独立运营已有20年，但在中国的业务渊源可追溯至拜耳时期，已超过百年历史。公 司始终坚持扎根中国、服务中国理念，深度参与并见证中国化工行业的快速发展。从房屋阻燃剂、汽车 轮胎添加剂，到用于国产大飞机C919的润滑油，朗盛始终以技术研发和绿色创新解决方案持续赋能消 费者保护、特殊添加剂和高品质中间体三大核心业务板块。 他表示，随着中国市场需求结构优化，以及新能源、智能制造等领域对特种化学品提出更高要求，朗盛 也迎来了新的发展机遇。过去一年，朗盛持续提升本土研发实力和供应链协同效应，其位于上海的亚太 应用开发中心(AADC)实现全球专利突破，研发出的全球首款混合PU-CSC润滑脂已在钢铁、电动汽车等 关键领域投入应用;荣获亿纬锂能（300014）2025年"卓越合作伙伴"以及上海电气（601727）2025年 度 ...

证券日报网讯 2月26日，上海家化在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司有1个财务共享中心，建立 于2016年。财务共享中心构建以SAPERP系统为核算中枢，深度耦合OA自动化办公平台，实现费用全 流程闭环管控。引入OCR智能识别、任务池智能派单、RPA智能审单、资金收付银企直连，以及财务全 域电子档案自动化管理等。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

证券日报网讯2月26日，上海家化（600315）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年9月30日， 公司普通股股东总数为29608户。 ...

上海家化（600315.SH）2月26日在投资者互动平台表示，公司有1个财务共享中心，建立于2016年。财 务共享中心构建以SAP ERP系统为核算中枢，深度耦合OA自动化办公平台，实现费用全流程闭环管 控。引入OCR智能识别、任务池智能派单、RPA智能审单、资金收付银企直连，以及财务全域电子档案 自动化管理等。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：尊敬的董秘，您好！ 1、请问贵公司是否已经建立财务 共享中心？哪年建立的？ 2、财务共享中心在技术上采用了哪些自动化或智能化工具？数字化程度按照 0-10打分得几分？ 3、财务共享中心的数量有几个？这些中心的设立是基于地理区域划分，还是按业务 板块划分？ （记者 张明双） ...

（记者 张明双） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问公司近年是否存在向欧盟成员国出口或销售的相 关业务？如有，欧盟地区业务收入在公司整体营业收入中的占比大致为多少？此外，公司对欧盟市场的 销售主要通过哪种方式实现：是以境内主体直接向欧盟客户出口为主，还是通过在欧盟国家设立的子公 司进行销售，或通过第三方贸易商、代理商转销至欧盟市场？ 上海家化（600315.SH）2月26日在投资者互动平台表示，公司向欧洲地区销售的主要品牌是汤美星， 主要通过欧洲境内设立子公司进行销售，公司其他品牌向欧洲销售金额很小。 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2026 年 2 月 26 日 江海证券研究发展部 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -2.51 -5.22 -14.9 绝对收益 -2.41 0.62 3.69 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 1. 江海证券-行业深度报告-美容护理行 业：专业皮肤护理行业研究-巨子生物、敷 尔佳、创尔生物 – 2026.01.14 2. 江海证券-行业点评报告-美容护理行 业：创健医疗重组胶原蛋白植入剂获批， 林清轩通过港交所上市聆讯 – 2025.12.30 3. 江海证券-行业点评报告-美容护理行 业："双 11"天猫抖音美妆榜出炉，巨子 生物重组 I 型胶原蛋白冻干纤维获批 – 2025.10.27 执业证书编号：S1410525120001 消费行业研究组 分析师：黄燕芝 2025 年，珀莱雅稳居淘宝天猫化妆品 榜首，韩束蝉联抖音化妆品榜首 事件： 美容护理行业 投资要点： 江海证券有限公司及其关联机构在法律许可的情况下可能与本报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在影响本报告客观性的 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese beauty industry has entered a capital race since 2025, with numerous domestic brands filing for IPOs, including Lin Qingxuan, HBN, and others [1][2] - Despite the apparent boom, there is significant industry anxiety due to the saturation of online traffic and diminishing returns from traditional growth strategies [2][14] - The consensus among brands is to seek growth through offline retail, with new brands aggressively expanding their physical presence to build asset barriers [2][18] Industry Dynamics - The current wave of domestic brands represents a channel battle, as they seek to break through the dominance of international brands that have historically controlled retail spaces [4][5] - The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 marked a turning point, shifting consumer habits and enabling domestic brands to leverage online platforms for growth [6][7] - Brands like HBN have rapidly grown, achieving over 2 billion yuan in annual revenue within seven years, while others like Winona have captured significant market share [6][7] Brand Strategies - Emerging brands are adopting differentiated strategies, focusing on niche markets rather than broad brand narratives [8] - For instance, HBN targets the "night owl" lifestyle, while other brands focus on specific skincare needs, allowing them to avoid competition in saturated markets [8][9] - Established brands like Proya and Shiseido have also found renewed success by targeting specific segments and enhancing their online presence [9][10] Financial Performance - The financial performance of major brands has shown signs of slowing growth, with Proya and others experiencing significant declines in revenue growth rates [13][14] - New brands aiming for IPOs have also reported modest growth, with a median revenue increase of 23% in 2024 [13] Offline Expansion - Many new brands are prioritizing offline expansion to counteract the challenges of online marketing, with plans to open stores in key urban areas [18][19] - The need for substantial funding for these offline initiatives highlights the urgency for brands to secure IPOs to support their growth strategies [20][21] Competitive Landscape - The rise of new beauty brands is putting pressure on established players, who must adapt to the changing landscape by enhancing their online and offline strategies [23][29] - Traditional brands are increasingly investing in instant retail and digital transformation to maintain their market positions [29][30] Future Outlook - The current IPO rush reflects a critical phase in the evolution of the beauty industry, marking both an assessment of past strategies and the beginning of a new competitive era [12][33] - The transition from a focus on online sales to a more integrated approach involving both online and offline channels will be crucial for long-term success [32][33]