www.ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 目录 | 摘要 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 8 | | 结论 | 10 | 联络人 作者 企业评级部 钟 婷 027-87339288 tzhong@ccxi.com.cn 吴亚婷 027-87339288 ytwu@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 | 贺文俊 | 027-87339288 | | --- | --- | | | wjhe@ccxi.com.cn | | 余 璐 | 027-87339288 | | | lyu@ccxi.com.cn | 中诚信国际 行业展望 航空运输行业 中国航空运输行业展望，2026 年 2 月 中诚信国际认为，短期来看，受行业供给端长期低增速影响， 航空客运在完成三年"先国内、后国际" 的总量快速恢复后，将 步入量质并举的发展阶段，而航空货运市场则处于机遇与调整 并存的发展局面。 中国航空运输行业的展望维持稳定，中诚信国际认为，未来 12~18 个月该行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 经营端，从外部竞争来看，2025 年以来 ...

2日上午，为让旅客在春运途中感受浓浓年味，大连机场开展新春活动。记者在现场看到，航站楼内歌 舞翩跹、乐声悠扬，工作人员化身"新春使者"，现场为旅客写春联、送福字、传递新春祝愿。 图为春运 首日，大连机场举办新春活动。李倩倩 摄 据大连国际机场股份公司副总经理、客运服务部经理郭巍介绍，国内航线上，大连机场加密北京、上 海、深圳、郑州等多个城市的航线运力。其中，上海航线每日高达25班，北京每日18班，南京、杭州、 成都、重庆等主要城市每日8班以上。同时，与山东半岛10个机场、东北腹地10个机场持续维系通航。 中新网大连2月2日电(杨毅 李倩倩)记者2日从大连国际机场获悉，今年春运期间，大连机场预计运输旅 客226万人次，较2025年同比增长0.44%，保障航班1.6万架次。 图为春运 首日，旅客在大连机场办理登机手续。李倩倩 摄 2026年春节将迎来为期9天的长假期，避寒游、冰雪游与务工返乡客流叠加，民众出行需求旺盛。机场 方面预计运输高峰节前将出现在2月13日—2月15日(腊月二十六至二十八)，节后高峰在2月21日—2月23 日(正月初五至初七)。 首日，大连机场举办新春活动。李倩倩 摄 图为春运 航司方面，据 ...

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 0.73% on February 2, with Juneyao Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the aviation sector showed varied performance: - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.48, up 0.74% with a trading volume of 1.94 million shares and a turnover of 1.08 billion yuan - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 7.26, up 0.69% with a trading volume of 924,400 shares and a turnover of 680 million yuan - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 14.46, down 3.86% with a trading volume of 133,600 shares and a turnover of 199 million yuan [1][3] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 24.80 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 105 million yuan and speculative funds had a net inflow of 130 million yuan [3][4] - China National Airlines (601111) had a net inflow of 12 million yuan from institutional investors, while Shenzhen Airport (000089) saw a net inflow of 23.46 million yuan [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and experienced a decline of 8.15% over the past five days, with a net subscription of 12.87 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and saw a decline of 9.25%, with a net subscription of 10.71 million yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance forecast for Chinese airlines in 2025 indicates a trend of "significantly reduced losses, some airlines turning profitable, and accelerated profit differentiation" [2][3]. Group 1: Annual Performance Forecast - China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines have turned profitable, contributing significantly to the sector's profit recovery, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines remain in the loss zone, with China Eastern's losses narrowing [1][2]. - China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines are the core contributors to profit recovery, while Huaxia Airlines continues to show growth, reflecting the relative advantages of regional routes and operational flexibility [2][3]. Group 2: Quarterly Performance Insights - In Q4 2025, the industry remains under pressure with losses prevailing, but most airlines show significant year-on-year improvements, indicating a continued recovery trend despite seasonal profitability pressures [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Demand remains a key variable for ticket price recovery and profit improvement, with domestic passenger volume expected to grow moderately due to normalized consumer travel and enhanced leisure tourism [4]. - The supply constraints and cost pressures are likely to amplify profit elasticity, with slow aircraft deliveries maintaining capacity control and policies aimed at reducing disorderly competition stabilizing revenue quality [4]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The top picks include Hainan Airlines (600221.SH) and Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), with a focus on China National Aviation (601111.SH, 00753), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [5].

北京商报讯(记者关子辰牛清妍)2月2日，记者从春秋航空（601021）获悉，春秋航空"宠物友好"航线将 拓展至133条航线，包括从上海虹桥、浦东、石家庄、兰州、南昌、哈尔滨、乌鲁木齐出港的多个国内 直飞航班。每个航班限4个名额，其他城市还在进一步拓展中。 春秋航空表示，自去年5月推出首班"宠物进客舱"服务以来，携宠航空出行需求呈现稳步增长。今年1月 承运宠物数量环比12月份增加150%。 ...

《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者胡夕姮 报道：2月2日，春秋航空宣布进一步扩大"宠物友好"航线范 围。服务现覆盖从上海虹桥、浦东、石家庄、兰州、南昌、哈尔滨、乌鲁木齐出港的133条国内直飞航 线，每个航班限4个名额，后续将向其他更多城市拓展。 （ 春秋航空供图） 曾体验过该服务的旅客廖女士表示："以前出行只能将狗寄养，现在能带它一起进客舱，随时观察状 态，既安心又方便。"这种"人在侧、宠在旁"的陪伴模式，既提升了宠物在运输过程中的舒适性，也显 著减少了传统托运可能引发的应激反应。旅客可将宠物安置于客舱指定区域并全程看护，使携宠出行更 加便捷、安心。 该服务严格执行民航安全规范。旅客需在航班起飞前24小时通过春秋航空95524热线专属人工通道完成 预订，并最迟于起飞前2小时携宠至机场办理值机。旅客需提前备妥《动物检疫合格证明》《小动物疫 苗注射证明》，并自备符合要求的宠物箱、一次性锁扣、防护网兜、宠物纸尿裤、口套、隔尿垫等相关 防护物品。目前，每名旅客仅限携带1只宠物，每个航班最多承运4只宠物。春秋航空会安排地面服务人 员为携宠旅客提供全流程引导，确保人宠同行顺畅高效。 春秋航空表示，自去年5月推出"宠物进客舱 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the **Airlines** and **Express Delivery** sectors within the **China Transportation** industry, highlighting growth prospects and challenges for 2026 and beyond [1][2][3]. Airlines Sector - **Up-cycle Confirmation**: Management from Spring Airlines reaffirmed the ongoing up-cycle in the airline industry, with expectations of continued tight supply growth despite accelerated aircraft deliveries [2][9]. - **Engine Maintenance Disruptions**: Potential disruptions from engine maintenance are anticipated to persist in 2026, contributing to supply constraints [2][11]. - **Pricing Dynamics**: There is a potential for price hikes during peak seasons in the domestic market due to elevated utilization rates and more rational competition on international routes [2][12]. - **Capacity Growth**: Spring Airlines expects its own capacity growth to contribute to robust earnings growth in 2026, with limited negative impacts from Japanese routes [2][16]. Express Delivery Sector - **Volume Growth Outlook**: Management from express delivery companies expressed a positive outlook for industry volume growth, projecting high single-digit to low-teens growth in 2026, despite recent market slowdowns [3][19]. - **Anti-involution Initiatives**: Anti-involution measures are expected to continue but with more flexible enforcement, allowing leading players to pursue market share gains while smaller players may accept short-term share erosion [3][20]. - **Cost Optimization**: Companies are focused on reducing unit line-haul costs in 2026, with YTO and Yunda targeting specific cost reductions [21][22]. - **Rural Demand Growth**: Yunda anticipates that demand from rural areas could become a new growth engine, supported by favorable government policies and e-commerce platform initiatives [22]. International Expansion - **Overseas Logistics Market**: J&T plans to expand into 30 countries over the next decade, leveraging partnerships to enhance its international market presence, particularly in Latin America and Europe [4][25]. - **YTO's International Strategy**: YTO aims to invest in international business, expanding service coverage through its freight forwarding subsidiaries and air cargo fleet [4][25]. Stock Implications - **Market Share Gains**: Leading players like ZTO and YTO are expected to consolidate market share, enhancing cost-efficiency and service quality, which could support margin expansion [9]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report favors investments in major airlines, particularly the Big 3 and Spring Airlines, due to anticipated pricing catalysts and robust demand [9]. Additional Insights - **Inbound Travel Demand**: Inbound tourism is seen as a growing source of demand, particularly beneficial during off-peak seasons, with an expected annual load factor uplift from inbound traffic [18]. - **Cost Dynamics**: Favorable factors for airlines include higher aircraft utilization and low fuel prices, while challenges include overseas cost inflation and increased maintenance expenses [14]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the airlines and express delivery sectors in China.

此外，东航税前利润总额为2-3亿元，受所得税费用影响导致东航税后利润出现亏损：受21年经营利润亏损影 响，2021年三大航分别确认较大额度的未经抵消的递延所得税资产（未弥补税务亏损），根据报表披露21年国航/ 东航/南航确认额度分别为29.8/46.2/38.1亿元，根据税法约定，可抵扣暂时性差异形成的递延所得税资产要求在未 来5个纳税年度内能产生足够的应纳税所得额用以抵扣，意味着对于三大航而言需要在26年之前确认同等额度的所 得税费用，导致大航不得不在25年提前确认部分所得税费用，使得税后利润由正转负。 预计三大航均在25年提前确认15亿上下的所得税费用。 2、近期航空板块调整幅度较大，主要由于三方面原因：1）递延所得税问题逐步被市场认识，市场下修对2025年 业绩预期；2）地缘战争预期升温，油价同比大幅上涨，压制板块股价；3）中日航线摩擦持续，边际改善有限。 随着业绩预告最后一重利空落地，我们认为短期来看股价里面隐含的悲观预期得到了充分的释放；25年税后盈利 低于预期不改经营利润显著改善的趋势，预计26年开始行业的经营利润仍有望持续且显著的改善。 大航业绩预告落地，经营改善确认周期拐点 1、事件点评：三大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the shipping industry, highlighting the upward potential in both oil and dry bulk markets [7]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000, a week-on-week increase of 17% [10][11]. - The BDI index has shown resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, up 21.9% week-on-week, with significant increases in various vessel types [23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Shipping - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a significant rise in VLCC freight rates, particularly on the Middle East to China route, which saw a 27% increase to $127,000 per day [10][11]. - The market fundamentals are weakening, with a slowdown in cargo availability and a lack of new cargo in the US Gulf market, leading to a decline in overall market activity [10][11]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index has shown a remarkable performance during the off-season, with a year-on-year increase of 89% in January, averaging 1759 points [24]. - The strong performance of the BCI index, which increased by 121% year-on-year, is attributed to supply constraints and steady demand from Brazil and West Africa [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for upward trends in both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [27]. - For dry bulk, the report suggests companies like Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping, citing favorable supply and demand dynamics [28]. Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in domestic air passenger volume, with average ticket prices rising by 4.3% [29]. - The SCFI index has decreased by 10% week-on-week, indicating a decline in container shipping rates [50].

在首航仪式现场，春秋航空相关负责人与旅客亲切互动，为首航旅客送上纪念礼品与新春节日祝福。该负责人表示，新开航线旨在搭建两岸交流的空中桥 梁，以实惠票价和优质服务，助力更多台胞便捷往返，共享团圆年味。不少旅客携家人同行，表示直飞航班让回乡之路"更省时、更温暖"。 上海—高雄航线具体航班信息为：去程9C8877于北京时间14:30从上海浦东起飞，当地时间16:55抵达高雄；返程9C8878于当地时间17:55自高雄起飞，北京 时间20:15返回上海浦东。该航线已在春秋航空官方App、微信小程序等平台开售，开航初期推出特惠票价，以助力两岸同胞轻松开启新春之旅。 . 科 8 ..... S , 64.48 35 NB KHH 34 CBSTT 012 LAND | READ （图片由殷立勤拍摄） 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者胡夕姮 报道：2月1日，春秋航空的上海浦东至中国台湾高雄直飞航线正式开通。首航航班客座率达100%，其中多数旅客 为返乡过年的台胞家庭。这条新航线的开通，为两岸同胞春节团聚搭建起一条温暖的"回家路"。 据悉，春秋航空计划在春运期间新开上海—常德、上海—十堰、上海—马来西亚槟城等航线，并加密30 ...