Group 1 - China Aluminum's stock price increased by 1.84% to 9.40 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.747 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.07%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 161.263 billion CNY [1] - The stock has risen for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 12.31% during this period [1] - China Aluminum's main business includes exploration and mining of bauxite and coal, production and sales of alumina, primary aluminum, and aluminum alloy products, as well as international trade and logistics [1] Group 2 - The fund "Chuangjin Hexin Xinrui Mixed A" holds a significant position in China Aluminum, with 34,200 shares, unchanged from the previous period, representing 0.23% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 5,814 CNY today and 35,200 CNY during the five-day increase [2] - The fund was established on April 26, 2021, with a current scale of 10.953 million CNY and a year-to-date return of 4.21% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager Wang Yibing has a tenure of 10 years and 169 days, managing assets totaling 5.003 billion CNY, with the best fund return of 21.02% during his tenure [3] - Co-manager Huang Haodong has a tenure of 5 years and 317 days, managing assets of 373 million CNY, with the best fund return of 17.54% during his tenure [3]

Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys" [1] Core Viewpoint - The easing of Sino-US trade relations and the decline in domestic social inventories have made aluminum prices cautiously bullish [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Section Alumina - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The construction of China National Aluminum's Guixi Nadou sedimentary bauxite mine has started, with an expected annual output of 800,000 physical tons. The first phase of the bauxite recycling project in Qingzhen City has started producing 440,000 tons of aluminum concentrate per year. The production of domestic bauxite in October may increase month-on-month. Several alumina projects are under construction or in production, which may increase the domestic alumina production in October [3][18][26] - Overseas: The third-phase project of Nanshan Aluminum's Bintan Alumina in Indonesia with a capacity of 1 million tons started trial production in early May and is expected to reach full production in 2025. The overseas alumina production in October may increase, and the domestic alumina imports in October may increase month-on-month [3][35] - **Demand Side** - The matching surplus of China's alumina operating capacity compared to electrolytic aluminum in September has expanded month-on-month [3][26] - **Inventory** - The total inventory of China's alumina has increased compared to last week, including the inventory in ports, warehouses, and factories [15][17][27] - **Price and Cost** - The alumina basis is positive, and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range. The near-far month contract closing prices show a Contango structure. The average daily full production cost of China's alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton [12][22][14] - **Investment Strategy** - The domestic alumina supply and demand are expected to be loose, but production losses may limit the downside of alumina prices. Investors are advised to wait for the price to rise to a high level to lay out short positions, paying attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,600 [4] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The first phase of the energy-saving renovation project of Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Electrolytic Aluminum's second phase has started production, and the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum's green power aluminum project is expected to be put into production in December 2025. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October may increase month-on-month. The import volume in October may also increase month-on-month due to the restart of overseas capacities [5][56][60] - Overseas: Several overseas electrolytic aluminum projects are restarting or expanding production [60] - **Demand Side** - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has remained flat compared to last week. The production of remelted rods (aluminum rods) in October may increase month-on-month [5] - **Inventory** - The social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory in bonded areas, LME, and COMEX has also decreased [45][46] - **Price and Cost** - The Shanghai aluminum basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,080 yuan/ton [39][41][56] - **Investment Strategy** - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and the increasing proportion of domestic electrolytic aluminum molten aluminum production leading to a decline in inventories may make Shanghai aluminum prices cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when the price drops, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [6] Aluminum Alloys - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The production of domestic scrap aluminum in October may increase month-on-month, while the import volume may decrease. The production of primary (recycled, ADC12) aluminum alloys in October may decrease month-on-month [7][70][81] - Overseas: The competition for overseas scrap aluminum procurement is fierce, and the export of scrap aluminum to China has declined [7] - **Demand Side** - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased compared to last week [90] - **Inventory** - The social inventory of China's aluminum alloys has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has also decreased [86][81] - **Price and Cost** - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The daily full production cost of China's primary aluminum alloy is 20,920 yuan/ton, and that of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,700 yuan/ton [64][75][78] - **Investment Strategy** - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and the expected tight supply and demand of domestic scrap aluminum may make aluminum alloy prices cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when the price drops or try to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys with a light position in the short term, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with industrial value-added increasing by 6.2% [1][15] - The US core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][17] - Copper prices are experiencing strong performance, nearing $11,000 per ton due to supply concerns and optimistic trade outlooks [3][20] - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association emphasizes the need to prevent "involution" and ensure supply chain security [4][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the nonferrous metals sector increased by 1.13%, underperforming the index [9] Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases, particularly copper, which is projected to continue rising due to supply disruptions [22] - LME copper price was $10,947 per ton, up 3.21% week-on-week, while SHFE copper price was 87,720 yuan per ton, up 3.95% [22][28] Strategic Metals - New policies on rare earth exports are expected to benefit the heavy rare earth sector in the short term [46] Company Recommendations - For industrial metals, companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining are recommended for investment [53] - In the strategic metals sector, companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Xiamen Tungsten are highlighted for potential growth [54]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to hold at 25,000 points, reflecting a forecasted P/E ratio of 12 times over the next 12 months, amid uncertainties in U.S. monetary policy and ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance on interest rate cuts has led to reduced expectations for rate reductions in 2026, contributing to market volatility [2][4] - China's economic slowdown in Q3 has prompted the government to focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance, aligning with expectations from the 15th Five-Year Plan [2] Sector Focus - The report highlights a positive outlook for sectors such as insurance and AI, driven by strong A-share performance and advancements in chip development [8] - Key macroeconomic indicators include China's industrial profits for September and Hong Kong's import and export data, which are critical for assessing market conditions [3] Company News - WuXi AppTec (2359) reported a 53% increase in profits for the last quarter and raised its revenue forecast, indicating strong operational performance [4] - China Overseas Land & Investment (0688) experienced a 51.6% year-on-year decline in operating profit for Q3, reflecting challenges in the real estate sector [4] - The upcoming IPO of Seres (9927) aims to raise over HKD 13.1 billion, with a focus on electric vehicles in collaboration with Huawei [11] - Xiaomi Auto has introduced a tax subsidy plan for its entire vehicle lineup, expecting to invest over CNY 2 billion to support customers facing delivery delays [11] - Geely (0175) aims to sell 100,000 electric vehicles annually in the UK, targeting a competitive position against BYD and Tesla [11] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month in September, the slowest growth in three months, reinforcing expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][10] - China's local government debt reached CNY 53.7 trillion by the end of September, with new bond issuance totaling CNY 474.1 billion for the month [9] - The People's Bank of China reported a 6.6% year-on-year increase in the total RMB loan balance as of the end of Q3, indicating a stable lending environment [9]

Core Insights - The rare earth industry index in China has seen a strong increase of 2.21%, with key stocks such as Antai Technology and Xiamen Tungsten hitting the daily limit up, indicating positive market sentiment and performance in the sector [1] - The recent export control measures by the Chinese government on rare earth materials and technologies have further solidified the strategic value of rare earths, leading to a reassessment of their long-term valuation in the international market [4][5] Market Performance - The rare earth ETF managed by Jiashi has experienced a turnover rate of 3.38% and a transaction volume of 365 million yuan, reflecting active trading [3] - Over the past two weeks, the Jiashi rare earth ETF has seen a significant growth in scale by 1.66 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's net asset value has increased by 94.08% over the past two years, placing it in the top 4.31% of index equity funds [4] Stock Performance - The top ten weighted stocks in the China rare earth industry index account for 61.96% of the index, with North Rare Earth and Wolong Electric Drive being the most significant contributors [4] - Notable stock performances include North Rare Earth rising by 3.61% and Xiamen Tungsten by 10.00%, indicating strong investor interest [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is facing challenges with sluggish shipments from rare earth mines, increasing pressure on holders [4] - On the demand side, there is a weakening terminal demand and a cautious sentiment among large manufacturers, who are primarily restocking based on immediate needs [4] Investment Opportunities - The recent policy changes and market sentiment are positively impacting the rare earth sector, with expectations of continued global demand growth supporting the industry's outlook [5] - Investors can also consider the Jiashi rare earth ETF connection fund to capitalize on investment opportunities in the rare earth market [7]

Core Insights - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index has seen a strong increase of 1.70%, with notable gains from stocks such as China Xidian up 6.61% and Shanghai Electric up 6.40% [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has released a plan aiming for a new energy storage capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, enhancing project economics through supportive policies [5] - The demand for energy storage is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with projections indicating a 30%-40% increase in global energy storage installations over the next two years [4] Group 1: Market Performance - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF (561790) has increased by 1.63%, marking a three-day consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.25 yuan [3] - The ETF has seen a weekly cumulative increase of 2.85% as of October 24, 2025, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's trading volume reached 416.82 million yuan with a turnover rate of 9.1% [3] Group 2: Policy and Economic Outlook - The new energy storage plan outlines a target of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with supportive measures from provinces like Henan to enhance project viability [5] - The energy storage market is experiencing robust demand, driven by new pricing policies and increased investment from social capital [4] - The lithium battery demand is projected to exceed 2700 GWh next year, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 30% [4] Group 3: Industry Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index account for 47.72% of the index, including major players like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power [6] - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF closely tracks the index, which includes 50 listed companies involved in green energy and fossil energy sectors [5]

Core Insights - The China Securities Index Free Cash Flow Index (932365) has shown a positive performance, with a 0.56% increase as of October 27, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) and CITIC Special Steel (000708) [1][2] - The Free Cash Flow ETF Fund (159233) has also performed well, with a 0.69% increase and a recent price of 1.17 yuan, reflecting a 2.47% rise over the past week [1][2] - The fund has experienced continuous net inflows for 34 days, accumulating a total of 230 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of approximately 6.78 million yuan [1][2] Performance Metrics - The Free Cash Flow ETF Fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 7.80% since its inception, with a longest streak of 4 consecutive months of gains [2] - The fund's maximum drawdown is recorded at 3.76%, with a recovery time of 35 days [2] - The management fee for the fund is set at 0.50%, while the custody fee is 0.10% [2] Top Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Free Cash Flow Index account for 56.31% of the index, including major companies like China National Offshore Oil (600938) and Midea Group (000333) [3][5] - The top ten stocks are characterized by varying performance, with Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) showing a significant increase of 5.36% [5]

Core Insights - The National Index of Free Cash Flow has increased by 0.63%, with notable stocks such as Changbao Co., Ltd. hitting the limit up, and Dongfang Tower, Luoyang Molybdenum, CITIC Special Steel, and Mould Technology leading the gains [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has risen by 0.51%, marking its third consecutive increase, and has achieved a weekly cumulative increase of 2.91%, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has seen a net inflow of 3.83 billion yuan over the past nine days, with its latest share count reaching 4.184 billion, a record high since inception [1] - The ETF's latest scale has reached 4.878 billion yuan, also a record high, and it ranks first among comparable funds [1] Performance Metrics - As of October 24, the Free Cash Flow ETF has recorded a net value increase of 21.43% over the past six months [2] - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception is 7%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being five months and a maximum increase of 18.05% [2] - The average monthly return during the rising months is 3.08%, with a monthly profit percentage of 85.71% and a historical six-month holding profit probability of 100% [2] - The maximum drawdown over the past six months is 3.65%, which is the smallest among comparable funds, with a recovery time of 35 days [2] Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest among comparable funds [2] - The tracking error over the past three months is 0.061%, indicating the highest tracking accuracy among comparable funds [2] Top Holdings - As of September 30, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index of Free Cash Flow include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Wuliangye, Gree Electric Appliances, Luoyang Molybdenum, China Aluminum, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Shanghai Electric, Chint Group, and Xiamen International Trade, collectively accounting for 54.91% of the index [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting quality targets in gold and copper [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to elevate valuation levels across the sector. It recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector [3][4]. - The report notes significant price movements in various metals, with copper prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like AI data centers and electric grid investments [4][9]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.73%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.11 percentage points [5][7]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 71.51%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 53.06 percentage points [5][8]. Price Changes - Industrial metals saw varied price changes, with copper up by 2.20% and aluminum up by 7.61%. Precious metals, however, experienced a decline, with gold prices down by 3.30% [4][9]. - Lithium prices have shown significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 5.37% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up by 23.33% [4][9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that copper supply is expected to face disruptions due to incidents affecting major mines, which could lead to a 2.2% reduction in global copper supply in the near term [4][9]. - The demand for copper remains robust, with operating rates for electrolytic copper rods and wire and cable production at 61.6% and 62.3%, respectively [4][24]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Shandong Gold, among others [4][17]. - For aluminum, companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum are highlighted due to their integrated operations and cost improvements [4][17]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities based on current valuations [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with continued destocking trends and aluminum prices breaking through 21,000 RMB/ton [1][8] - The demand for aluminum is expected to remain stable, supported by ongoing economic growth and a favorable policy environment [13] - The aluminum industry is projected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [13] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 24, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,856.5 USD/ton, up 315.0 RMB/ton week-on-week, a 1.5% increase [17] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closed at 21,225.0 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 315.0 RMB/ton [23] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.615 million tons, a decrease of 11.8 thousand tons month-on-month [55] - The alumina production for the same month was 7.604 million tons, down 13.5 thousand tons month-on-month [55] 3. Inventory - As of October 23, the national aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 618,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 9,000 tons [9] - The domestic aluminum rod inventory increased to 145,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 3,000 tons [9] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.65 RMB for 2025 [7] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.00 RMB for 2025 [7] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.13 RMB for 2025 [7] 5. Supply and Demand - Domestic supply remains stable, while overseas supply disruptions have occurred, such as Century Aluminum's production halt in Iceland [9] - The demand side shows a mixed picture, with high aluminum prices suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]