Group 1 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 0.97%, down 254 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.2% with a trading volume of 165.2 billion HKD in the morning session [1] - Congo has extended its cobalt export ban, leading to a rise of over 8.9% in the stock price of Liqin Resources (02245) [1] - Cloudwise Technology (01037) surged by 79% due to potential collaboration with UBTECH [1] - Kaizhile International (02122) saw a more than 12% increase after partnering with Pokémon IP to enter the collectible card game market [1] - HuiLiang Technology (01860) rose nearly 4.76% to a new high, driven by rapid growth from its smart bidding products, with institutions optimistic about the company's growth potential [1] - Shanggao Holdings (00412) increased by over 14%, maintaining normal business operations and announcing a buyback plan of up to 100 million USD [1] - Dazhong Public Utilities (01635) rose by 6.6%, with the company holding shares in Shenzhen Capital Group, and Moer Thread's IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is set to be reviewed [1] - Datang Gold (08299) surged over 20% in the morning after raising over 270 million HKD through a placement, with the controlling shareholder of Wanguo Gold Group becoming the second-largest shareholder [1] - Hong Kong Broadband (01310) rebounded over 17%, as its controlling shareholder, China Mobile Hong Kong, plans to place existing shares, and the company aims to meet public holding requirements promptly [1] - Solar stocks collectively declined, with institutions indicating that domestic polysilicon prices remain high and the supply-demand relationship in the industry has not significantly improved. New Special Energy (01799) fell by 4.18%, Flat Glass Group (06865) dropped by 4%, Xinyi Solar (00968) decreased by 2.6%, and Xinyi Energy (03868) fell by 3% [1] Group 2 - Airline stocks collectively declined due to unexpectedly weak demand for public transportation during the summer travel season, with institutions suggesting to monitor the sustainability of public transport recovery and avoid excessive competition. China Southern Airlines (01055) fell by 4.93%, Air China (00753) dropped by 3.98%, and China Eastern Airlines (00670) decreased by 2.27% [2]

Market Overview - Jin Jing New Energy (02945) surged over 17% after being included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect effective from September 23, 2025 [1] - Airline stocks collectively declined, with China Southern Airlines (01055) down over 5%, Air China (00753) down over 4%, and China Eastern Airlines (00670) down over 2%, attributed to weaker demand in the summer transportation market [1] - Hong Kong Broadband (01310) rose over 15% following China Mobile's completion of its offer to acquire the company [1] - Dazhong Public Utilities (01635) increased over 8% after announcing its stake in Deep Venture Capital [1] - Sunac China (01918) and other domestic property stocks fell over 4%, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector despite some signs of stabilization [1] Company Specifics - Red Star Macalline (01528) dropped over 4% after the founder was released from detention and multiple executives left the company [2] - Huya Technology (01860) rose over 5% due to rapid growth from its smart bidding products, indicating strong growth potential [2] - New Energy stocks, including Xinte Energy (01799) and Flat Glass Group (06865), fell due to high polysilicon prices and unresolved supply-demand issues in the industry [2] US Market Highlights - Amer Sports (AS.US), the parent company of Arc'teryx, fell over 5% amid controversy surrounding a recent event [3] - Baidu (BIDU.US) increased by 0.95% after a report changed its valuation method, setting a target price of $188 [3] - Apple (AAPL.US) rose 4.31% following the launch of the iPhone 17 series, with significant demand observed in retail stores [4] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) reached a record high, up 3.93%, with a market cap nearing $4.5 trillion and plans to invest $100 billion in OpenAI [3]

2025.09. 23 本文字数：1251，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 中央气象台9月23日10时继续发布台风橙色预警：今年第18号台风"桦加沙"（超强台风级）的中心今 天（23日）上午10点钟位于广东省阳江市东偏南方向约640公里的南海北部海面上，预计将于24日 中午到晚上在广东珠海到湛江一带沿海登陆（台风级或强台风级，13-15级，40-48米/秒）。 据记者了解，此次超强台风主要影响珠海金湾、深圳宝安、香港、澳门、广州白云、惠州平潭、揭阳 潮汕、高雄小港、台北桃园、福州长乐、厦门高崎、湛江吴川、海口美兰机场的航班运行。为此，多 家航空公司发布了航班取消的计划。 其中， 南航 表示，23日、24日在惠州平潭机场的航班全部取消；23日在台北桃园机场的航班全部 取消；24日在澳门机场的航班全部取消；同时提前取消23日进出珠海金湾机场航班21班；取消23日 在香港机场的CZ603、CZ604、CZ5009航班，24日航班全部取消；深圳宝安机场23日出港航班起 飞时间安排在20:00前执行，23日进港航班落地时间安排在18:30前执行。 主基地位于中国香港的 国泰航空 也宣布，自23日下午6时 ...

Core Viewpoint - Airline stocks collectively declined, with significant drops observed in major airlines such as China Southern Airlines, Air China, and China Eastern Airlines, indicating a challenging market environment for the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, China Southern Airlines (600029) fell by 4.93% to HKD 3.86, Air China (601111) decreased by 4.34% to HKD 5.29, China Eastern Airlines (00670) dropped by 2.6% to HKD 3, and Capital Airport (00694) declined by 1.43% to HKD 2.75 [1] - The report from Cathay Securities highlighted a recovery in commercial demand year-on-year for April and May, which supported airlines in reducing fuel costs during the off-peak season, leading to a significant reduction in losses for Q2 [1] Group 2: Demand and Pricing Dynamics - Unexpected weakness in commercial demand during July and August resulted in a lack of profitability during the summer travel season, despite a projected year-on-year increase in summer profits due to the offsetting effects of falling ticket prices and oil prices [1] - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of commercial demand after the important October meetings, with initial signs of strong demand in September potentially indicating that the summer's unexpected weakness may be temporary [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - If the recovery in commercial demand proves sustainable, it is anticipated that the profit center for airlines will significantly rise starting in 2026, with state-owned airlines in China expected to benefit from reduced internal competition [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is expected to continue controlling flight schedule growth for the winter season of 2025/26, which, along with low-price management during the off-peak season, will help airlines significantly reduce losses and potentially achieve profitability for the entire year of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation stocks have collectively declined, with significant drops observed in major airlines, while a report indicates a mixed outlook for demand recovery and profitability in the upcoming months [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Southern Airlines (01055) fell by 4.93%, trading at 3.86 HKD [1] - Air China (00753) decreased by 4.34%, trading at 5.29 HKD [1] - Eastern Airlines (00670) dropped by 2.6%, trading at 3 HKD [1] - Capital Airport (00694) declined by 1.43%, trading at 2.75 HKD [1] Group 2: Demand and Profitability Outlook - From April to May, commercial demand showed a year-on-year recovery, supporting airlines in reducing fuel costs during the off-peak season, leading to a significant reduction in losses for Q2 [1] - However, unexpected weakness in commercial demand during July to August resulted in a lack of profitability during the summer travel season [1] - Despite the pressure from reduced commercial demand, a decline in ticket prices and oil prices is expected to offset losses, with summer travel profitability still projected to increase year-on-year [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of commercial demand after the important October meetings, with initial signs in September indicating a strong demand that may validate the previous unexpected weakness as a temporary issue [1] - If the recovery in commercial demand proves sustainable, a significant upward shift in airline profitability is anticipated starting in 2026 [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is expected to continue controlling flight schedule growth for the winter season of 2025/26, which, along with low-price management during the off-peak season, will help airlines significantly reduce losses and potentially achieve profitability for the entire year of 2025 [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Aviation Industry in China Key Points - The profitability trend in the Chinese aviation industry is on the rise, driven by market-driven ticket pricing and a slowdown in fleet growth [1][2][3] - Domestic ticket prices on the top 100 routes have increased by over 40% compared to 2019, with fleet growth expected to slow to around 3% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The recovery of business travel demand during the second quarter contributed to maintaining ticket prices, while a decrease in oil prices helped reduce fuel costs, leading to a significant reduction in losses for the three major airlines [1][2] - The third quarter is expected to show year-on-year growth, potentially reaching new highs since 2019, with a rapid recovery in business travel demand in September being a critical factor [1][3] - Positive pre-sale data for the upcoming Golden Week indicates a 20% year-on-year increase in ticket pre-sales, with higher pre-sale prices compared to the previous year [1][3] Future Outlook - The recovery of business travel, especially after the Fourth Plenary Session, will be crucial for market performance in the coming year [1][5] - The sustainability of peak season effects will be an important indicator for validating long-term growth logic in the industry [5] - The implementation of anti-involution measures is expected to focus on sustainability and long-term stability in supply and demand [6] Key Trends for Upcoming Golden Week - The upcoming Golden Week is anticipated to be robust due to the long holiday period and the "拼假" (holiday-splicing) effect, with ticket bookings for domestic routes exceeding 9 million, a 28% increase year-on-year [7] - There is a notable increase in cross-province and long-distance travel, with growth rates exceeding 50% compared to last year [7] - The integration of culture and tourism is becoming prominent, with border tourism emerging as a new trend, particularly in regions like Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and Yunnan, where tourism orders have surged by over 100% [7] Opportunities in the Tourism Sector - The tourism industry is expected to benefit from economic cycles and consumer spending patterns, with service consumption, including tourism, likely to grow as residents' income levels stabilize or increase [8] - Upcoming policies aimed at promoting service consumption, particularly during the spring and autumn holidays, are expected to enhance overall travel experiences and smooth out seasonal fluctuations [8] Strategic Recommendations for Airlines - Airlines should focus on high-quality network strategies to enhance competitiveness, with companies like Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines being recommended [9] - Preparing for the upcoming super cycle investment opportunities over the next two years and improving revenue management will be essential for long-term profitability [9] - Controlling flight schedules and managing low-cost routes will help optimize supply and demand relationships, supporting both short-term loss reduction and long-term profitability enhancement [9]

Group 1: Mechanical Industry - The mechanical industry report highlights that the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, with a core CPI rise of 3.1% and non-farm employment adding 22,000 jobs [1][4] - The report suggests focusing on export-oriented consumer companies with global manufacturing layouts, brand output capabilities, and channel integration advantages, especially those with diversified capacity and stable customer loyalty [3][16] - The report notes a slight depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB and a slight appreciation of the euro against the RMB, with major shipping routes experiencing a year-on-year increase in freight rates [1][5] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle" with high passenger load factors and improving supply-demand dynamics, potentially leading to a significant increase in airline profitability by 2026 [2][8][25] - The report indicates that the Chinese aviation market has achieved market-driven pricing and high load factors, which are essential for price transmission [8][25] - The report anticipates that if business travel demand continues to recover, airlines' profitability will significantly increase, marking a long-term positive trend for the industry [8][25][27] Group 3: Fixed Income Research - The report discusses the issuance of local government bonds in various provinces, totaling 188.52 billion RMB, with a slight narrowing of the bond issuance spread [2][14] - It highlights the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global policy cycles and the need to monitor liquidity changes and structural opportunities in the bond market [1][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting investment strategies in response to the evolving interest rate landscape and liquidity conditions [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry [5]. Core Insights - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," with high passenger load factors and improving supply-demand dynamics. If business travel demand proves sustainable, a significant upward shift in profitability is anticipated by 2026, indicating dual potential for performance and valuation [3][4]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The Chinese aviation industry has entered a low growth phase in supply, with constraints in airspace slots becoming more pronounced. Airlines are expected to maintain a conservative capital expenditure approach due to low expected returns on new aircraft investments. The "anti-involution" trend is likely to support a low growth trajectory for fleet planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5]. Demand Side - Aviation consumption in China is still in its early stages, characterized by low frequency and penetration. The demographic dividend from the aviation population has not yet peaked, suggesting a stable long-term growth trend despite short-term demand fluctuations. The summer peak season saw business travel unexpectedly weaken, but profitability is still projected to exceed that of 2019 [4][10]. Q3 and Q4 Outlook - For Q3, despite the unexpected weakness in business travel, profitability is expected to remain above 2019 levels, driven by a recovery in demand post-September events. The report anticipates a record high in business travel demand in September, with domestic ticket prices turning positive year-on-year [4][31]. - In Q4, the report highlights the importance of observing the sustainability of business travel recovery, especially after significant events in October. The optimistic outlook for the National Day holiday suggests strong travel demand, with airlines expected to manage pricing effectively [4][5]. Recommendations - The report recommends an "Overweight" position in the aviation sector, particularly favoring airlines with high-quality networks such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines. The anticipated "super cycle" in aviation is expected to provide significant performance and valuation opportunities in the coming years [4][34].

Market Overview - On September 22, the aviation and airport sector declined by 0.27%, with Xiamen Airport leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.58, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97, up 0.67% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included: - CITIC Hainan Airlines (Code: 6600000) closed at 22.68, up 2.81% with a trading volume of 220,300 shares and a turnover of 497 million yuan [1] - China National Aviation (Code: 601111) closed at 7.88, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 543,300 shares [1] - Xiamen Airport (Code: 600897) closed at 14.46, down 1.57% with a trading volume of 16,800 shares and a turnover of 24.29 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 126 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 126 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed: - CITIC Hainan Airlines had a net inflow of 39.99 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xiamen Airport had a net inflow of 4.81 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - China Eastern Airlines (Code: 600115) had a net inflow of 24.98 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival" holiday is expected to boost the domestic and outbound tourism markets, driven by supportive policies and a focus on enhancing travel experiences and product quality [2][3][4]. Group 1: Domestic Tourism Trends - The holiday period is anticipated to see a rise in short trips and an increase in the quality of long-distance travel, with online travel platform Tongcheng Travel reporting a doubling in bookings for domestic tours and over 20% increase in spending on long-distance group tours compared to last year [2][3]. - The average ticket price for domestic flights is expected to follow a "high-low-high" pattern, with peak prices at the beginning and end of the holiday, while mid-holiday prices are relatively lower [5][6]. Group 2: Outbound Tourism Growth - Outbound tourism products have seen a 75% increase in destination offerings, with traveler numbers up 130% compared to last year, particularly in Europe and North America, which saw increases of 80% and 207% respectively [6][12]. - The trend of early bookings is evident, with some outbound travel products selling out three months in advance, indicating strong demand [3][6]. Group 3: Travel Booking Patterns - The trend of "picking holidays" has led to an earlier booking rhythm, with travel reservations made approximately 3.5 days earlier than last year [4][5]. - The average booking volume for transportation services has increased by about 4.2% compared to last year, with significant growth in high-speed rail and multi-destination travel [5][6]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - Despite growth in traveler numbers, the tourism industry faces challenges with profitability, as indicated by the disparity between the increase in passenger volume and revenue for major airlines [8][9]. - The average ticket price for economy class in the civil aviation sector has decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, reflecting a struggle to match revenue growth with increased passenger numbers [8][9]. Group 5: Emerging Travel Preferences - There is a noticeable shift towards personalized and diverse travel products, with smaller group sizes becoming more popular, reflecting changing consumer preferences [11][12]. - The integration of cultural and entertainment activities into travel experiences is gaining traction, with significant increases in searches for hotels and attractions near popular events [10][11]. Group 6: Inbound Tourism Recovery - The inbound tourism market in Beijing has shown a strong recovery, with a 46.2% increase in visitors and a 49.6% rise in tourism spending compared to last year [12][13]. - Airlines are enhancing their services to attract foreign tourists, focusing on creating a seamless travel experience from pre-departure to arrival [13].