1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed weak performance, with the main 2510 contract closing at 1285.0 points, a decline of 3.31%, and an increase of 523 lots in positions; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1571.0 points, a decline of 3.85%, and an increase of 1880 lots in positions [8]. - In the short - term, the futures price is oscillating downward due to the expected decline in spot prices. In the medium - term, if the loading rate further drops and FAK freight approaches the shipping companies' cash - flow cost line of 1300 - 1600 dollars/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of voyages, and the further downward space of freight may be limited [11]. - The strategy is to stop profit on short positions of 2510 at low prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of 12 - 04 positive spread entry in the next 1 - 2 weeks [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Data | Contract | Yesterday's Closing Price | Daily Change | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Yesterday's Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Yesterday's Trading Volume/Open Interest | Previous Day's Trading Volume/Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1285.0 | - 3.31% | 25330 | 54248 | 523 | 0.47 | 0.34 | | EC2512 | 1571.0 | - 3.85% | 8009 | 16197 | 1880 | 0.49 | 0.38 | | EC2602 | 1400.0 | - 3.79% | 1273 | 4668 | 110 | 0.27 | 0.17 | | EC2510 - EC2512 | - 286.0 | | | | | | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | | | | 355.0 | | | | [1] 3.1.2 Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: The European route was at 1990.20 points, a weekly decline of 8.7%; the US - West route was at 1041.38 points, a weekly decline of 5.9% [1]. - SCFI: The European route was at 1668 dollars/TEU, a bi - weekly decline of 8.4%; the US - West route was at 1644 dollars/FEU, a bi - weekly decline of 6.5% [1]. 3.1.3 Spot European Line Prices - Maersk: Departing from Shanghai on September 11, 2025, arriving in Rotterdam on October 20, 2025, with a voyage of 38 days, the price was 1930 dollars/40'GP and 1155 dollars/20'GP [1]. - MSC: Departing from Shanghai on September 14, 2025, arriving in Rotterdam on October 31, 2025, with a voyage of 47 days, the price was 2352 dollars/40'GP and 1406 dollars/20'GP [1]. - Other shipping companies also have corresponding price and schedule information [1]. 3.1.4 Exchange Rate - The US dollar index was 97.88, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.15 [1]. 3.2 Supply - Side Situation - In September, there were no undetermined voyages, and the number of empty voyages was 6. The PA Alliance transferred 2 ships from the US line to the European line. The weekly average capacity in September reached 298,000 TEU/week, a decline of about 5% compared with August, still significantly lower than the capacity decline in the same period in 2024 [10]. - In October, the number of undetermined voyages was 4, and the number of empty voyages was 5. Without considering undetermined voyages, the weekly average capacity was 296,000 TEU/week [10]. 3.3 Demand - Side and Market Situation - In late August, the overall market loading rate was close to 95%. Since the loading rate was still above the warning line and shipping companies' profit levels were still considerable, shipping companies had no action to increase the number of empty voyages [11]. - In September, the freight rate was in a downward trend. Considering the capacity distribution, the downward pressure on freight rates was still large due to the increase in capacity in the second half of the month and shipping companies' need to stock up for the National Day holiday [11]. 3.4 Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of the European line stopped falling on September 10. There was a short - term speculation on the US - West port strike in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day, the premium was given back. Then, shipping companies announced price increases, with Maersk announcing a price increase to 4500 dollars/FEU effective from November 4, and the actual price in early November was around 4000 dollars/FEU [12]. - In years when the Spring Festival was late, the December contract still had a certain premium over the October contract, but the February contract was not necessarily a weak contract [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The freight rate center continues to decline, with the 10 - month contract mainly for short - allocation as the freight rate center moves down further. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. The main contract shows a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [5][7][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for routes such as Shanghai - Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 was 1315/2210, and in week 37 it was 1140/1900 (currently up to 1155/1930). Many other shipping companies also have their respective price quotes for September [1][2][3] - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed regret over the incident at the Nasser Hospital in Gaza, and Trump said dealing with Netanyahu was tricky and expected a good and clear outcome in the next 2 - 3 weeks [3] - **Capacity**: The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in September was 313,900 TEU, and in October it was 282,100 TEU. There were three blank sailings in September, and HPL announced two additional vessels for October [4] - **Contract Settlement Prices**: The final settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points. The 10 - month contract is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4][5] 2. Futures Prices - As of August 26, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 79,902 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 25,424 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided [8] 3. Spot Prices - On August 15, 2025, the SCFI prices for Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes were 1668.00 dollars/TEU, 1644.00 dollars/FEU, and 2613.00 dollars/FEU respectively. On August 18, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe was 1990.20 points, and for Shanghai - US West was 1041.38 points [8] 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 57 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 859,000 TEU, and 8 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [9] 5. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract shows a weak and volatile trend - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Maersk's quotes continued to decline in the second week of September, and attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow suit [1] - The freight rate of the October contract is mainly short - allocated, and the freight rate center continues to decline. The freight rate in October is usually 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to the price - following situation of other shipping companies after Maersk's freight rate drops to $1900/FEU [5] - The seasonality of the December contract still exists, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. If ships from the US line are transferred to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices [6][7] - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, it is advisable to go short on the October contract [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 26, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 79,739 lots, and the daily trading volume was 34,224 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, and EC2602 contracts were $1273.10, $1416.60, $1627.90, $1318.90, $1643.90, and $1469.30 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On August 15, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) was $1668/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was $1644/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $2613/FEU. On August 18, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1990.20 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1041.38 points. The final settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points [4][8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August 2025, the remaining one - week capacity from China to European base ports was 308,400 TEU. The weekly average capacity in September was 310,600 TEU, and that in October was 282,300 TEU. The capacity in September will increase, and the blank sailings of the PA alliance in September have been filled. HPL has announced two additional ships for October [4] - As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 859,000 TEU) and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 176,880 TEU) have been delivered [9] 3.4 Supply Chain - Not provided in the given content 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Not provided in the given content

北京时间5月14日，美国白宫宣布对华关税政策重大调整：立即撤销91%商品的加征关税，暂停24%关 税90天，仅保留10%的基准税率。与此同时，小额包裹关税从120%骤降至54%，跨境电商卖家们直 呼"久旱逢甘霖"。消息一出，外贸圈、跨境圈一片沸腾，大批卖家紧急启动备货计划，物流公司订单量 暴增300%。 马士基CTO文森特更是明确表示，尽管公司削减了部分中国至美国航线运力，但若客户有需求，可迅速 恢复运力。面对海运费的持续暴涨，许多卖家虽心有不甘，但也无奈地表示，即便涨价也要发货，谁也 不知道三个月后市场会怎样，而且亚马逊的prime day也即将来临。关税的下调，仿佛为卖家们打开了 一扇新的大门，但激烈的竞争也才刚刚拉开帷幕。 然而，在一片繁荣的发货热潮之下，新的情况也逐渐浮出水面。全球主要船公司接连发布涨价通知，运 价呈现出持续攀升的态势： 美森宣布自5月22日起，对从中国上海、宁波及厦门发往美国的大柜加价，涨幅达1500美元/40尺柜； MSC计划从6月1日开始推出旺季附加费PSS，分别为1600美元、2000美元、2000美元； ONE同样不甘示弱，通知客户美线FAK40 尺大柜运费上涨1000美元， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. The October contract is mainly for short - allocation as it is a off - season contract, and the freight rate center continues to decline. The risk for the December contract lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline. [6][7][9] - The supply of container ship capacity is affected by factors such as ship delivery and empty - sail filling. The freight rate is influenced by supply and demand, economic conditions, and shipping company strategies. [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 25, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 80,906.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 49,119.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1496.90, 1284.00, 1445.70, 2136.00, 1358.00, and 1696.70 respectively. [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from different alliances and shipping companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 was 1315/2210; HPL's quotes for the first half and second half of September were 1435/2235. In the Ocean Alliance, CMA's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes for the second half of August and September were 1510/2620 and 1410/2420 respectively. [1][3] - The final delivery settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points. The 10 - month contract is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the freight rate center continues to decline. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. [5][6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August, the remaining one - week capacity from China to European base ports was 308,400 TEU, and the capacity in week 35 was 30.84 TEU. The average weekly capacity in September was 310,600 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 36/37/38/39 were 326,500/276,000/314,500/325,500 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in October was 282,300 TEU. [4] - In September, the two empty sailings of the PA alliance were filled. In week 38, the FE4 route was filled by HMM AQUAMARINE (13,788 TEU), and in week 37, the FE3 route was filled by HMM ALGECIRAS (23,964 TEU). HPL announced information about two additional ships in October. [4] - As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 859,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 176,880 TEU. [9] 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the demand for container imports in the US from September to December 2025 will decline by about 20% compared with the same period in 2024. In the fourth quarter, Western holidays are concentrated, and shipping companies usually adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level. However, if ships from the US route are transferred to the European route, it may put pressure on European route prices. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The top of the August contract's freight rate has emerged, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price, with the final estimated settlement price around 2100 points [4]. - The October contract should be mainly short - allocated during the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Under normal circumstances, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short - allocate the EC2510 contract on rallies, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [4][5]. - The seasonal pattern of peak and off - seasons still exists for the December contract, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. In regular years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October [6]. - For strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the October contract on rallies for arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations for different routes and time periods. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 is 1290/2160; HPL's various time - period quotations are relatively stable at 1535/2435. Many other shipping companies' prices are also provided, and the prices of some shipping companies are showing a downward trend [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas condemned Israel's military action "Gideon Chariot 2", stating that Israel is continuing the 22 - month - long genocide war and ignoring the efforts of mediators to promote a cease - fire and the exchange of detainees [2]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of August is 283,100 TEU, with 262,300/304,000 TEU in weeks 34/35 respectively. The average weekly shipping capacity in September is 315,800 TEU, and in October it is 281,300 TEU. There are also information about overtime ships and empty sailings [3]. 2. Futures Contracts Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously declining. The final estimated delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - **October Contract**: It is an off - season contract, mainly short - allocated. The normal price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rates of many shipping companies are falling, and HPL's two overtime ships in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short - allocate the EC2510 contract on rallies, but not to chase short excessively [4][5]. - **December Contract**: The seasonal pattern of peak and off - seasons still exists, and the risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen. In regular years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October [6]. 3. Shipping Company Price Trends - Many shipping companies' prices are showing a downward trend. For example, Maersk's week 36 price drops to 2100 US dollars/FEU, HPL's late - August freight rate drops to 2435 US dollars/FEU, and the prices of OA and PA alliances also follow the downward trend [5]. 4. Shipping Capacity and Market Trends - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 15, 2025, 167 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.318 million TEU [8]. - The current shipping market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical situations, shipping capacity adjustments, and the off - peak and peak seasons, which jointly affect the freight rate trends [2][3][4][5][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and oil tanker transportation markets. It suggests that the container shipping market (EC) will experience weak and volatile trends, and recommends a 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage strategy with low - level rolling operations. The dry bulk shipping market is expected to see short - term pressure on large - vessel freight rates and a gradual weakening of medium - vessel freight rate support. The oil tanker transportation market shows a divergence between the crude oil and refined oil markets, with the crude oil market remaining stable and the refined oil market facing supply - demand imbalances [6][19][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - **Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation**: On August 19, EC2510 closed at 1370.3 points, down 0.2% from the previous day. The SCFI Europe Line on August 15 was $1820/TEU, down 7.2% month - on - month. The second - phase settlement index of EC2508 released after Monday's trading was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% month - on - month, expected to decline further. Spot freight rates are falling due to reduced cargo volume and sufficient capacity. The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and a 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage strategy can be used for low - level rolling operations [6][7][8]. - **Industry News**: There are various geopolitical news such as statements from Zelensky and Trump regarding the Russia - Ukraine war, and news about the Israel - Hamas cease - fire negotiation [11][12][13]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Market Analysis and Outlook**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index declined on Monday. The Capesize vessel freight index decreased, while the Panamax vessel freight index increased slightly. The spot freight rates of Capesize vessels for iron ore routes decreased on August 18, and the weekly freight rates of some coal and bauxite routes also changed. The iron ore and grain shipment data showed different trends. The large - vessel market may see relatively good but declining transportation demand in early - mid September, and the medium - vessel market's freight rate support from coal and grain transportation is expected to weaken [16][17][19]. - **Industry News**: The iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the iron ore inventory at Chinese ports increased [20]. Oil Tanker Transportation - **Market Analysis and Outlook**: On August 18, the Baltic Crude Oil Transportation Index BDTI was 1015, down 0.1% month - on - month and up 8.09% year - on - year. The Baltic Product Oil Transportation Index BCTI was 605, unchanged month - on - month and down 2.89% year - on - year. The crude oil market is stable, while the refined oil market has supply - demand imbalances. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of concentrated bookings on Middle - East routes in September, and long - term attention to factors like environmental elimination and supply - demand reshaping [23]. - **Industry News**: The US may impose additional tariffs on Indian goods due to its import of Russian oil, and there was a statement from Trump about not currently planning to impose tariffs on Chinese goods for buying Russian oil [24]. Related Attachments The report includes various charts related to container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and oil tanker transportation, such as SCFIS and SCFI indices, freight rate indices, and vessel earnings charts [27][29][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate of the PA alliance has declined, and Maersk has lowered its PSS. The freight rates of OA and PA alliances are following the downward trend. The 8 - month contract freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously being revised downward, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the 12 - month contract's risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on the 10 - month contract when the price is high [1][3][4][5]. - In terms of strategies, the main contract is expected to be weak in oscillation, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies in various alliances have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price has increased, while HPL's price remains stable. Some companies in the MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also have specific price quotes for different time periods. Maersk has lowered its PSS for the Far East - Nordic region to 50/100 [1]. - **Geopolitical Aspect**: China emphasizes the importance of maintaining the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promoting the political settlement of the Yemen issue [2]. II. Shipping Capacity - **Weekly and Monthly Shipping Capacity**: From August to October, the weekly and monthly average shipping capacities of China - European base ports show certain fluctuations. There are also empty sailings, TBNs, and additional ships in different months. For example, in August, there are 4 empty sailings in the OA alliance, and Maersk and the OA alliance have added several additional ships [3]. III. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously being revised downward, which brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on August 11, 18, and 25. The shipping company's prices have entered a downward cycle [3]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normal years see the freight rate in October 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to the price follow - up of other shipping companies after Maersk's freight rate drops, and the additional ships announced by HPL in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract when the price is high, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [4][5]. - **December Contract**: The regular seasonal pattern of high freight rates in the fourth quarter still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [5]. IV. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts of the container shipping index for European routes are provided, including EC2602, EC2604, etc. [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) are given on different dates [6]. V. Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU. As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [6]. VI. Strategy and Risk - **Strategy**: The main contract is expected to be weak in oscillation, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. - **Risk**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and American economies, a significant drop in oil prices, etc. Upward risks include the recovery of the European and American economies, supply chain problems, etc. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate is in a downward cycle, and attention should be paid to the recent PSS adjustment of Maersk. The 8 - month contract freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously declining, and the final delivery settlement price is estimated to be around 2100 points. The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on the 10 - month contract when the price is high [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam and Shanghai - London routes. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 35 has risen from 1320/2200 to 1390/2340, and Shanghai - London has risen from 1380/2300 to 1415/2370. HPL's quotes for different periods in August and September are stable at 1535/2435 [1]. - Geopolitical factor: China's Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations emphasized the need to maintain the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promote the political settlement of the Yemen issue [1]. 2. Shipping Capacity - Weekly and monthly average shipping capacity: In August, the remaining 4 - week average weekly capacity to European base ports from China is 308,700 TEU. In September, the monthly average weekly capacity is 302,800 TEU, and in October, it is 286,800 TEU. There are empty sailings and TBNs in August and September, and there are many additional ships in August [2]. 3. Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously declining. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11, 18, and 25. The final delivery settlement price is estimated to be around 2100 points [2]. - 10 - month contract: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normal years see a 20% - 30% lower price in October compared to August. Attention should be paid to the price - following situation of other shipping companies after Maersk's week 35 freight rate drops to $2200/FEU. The two additional ships announced by HPL in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to go short on the EC2510 contract when the price is high, but do not chase short excessively [3][4]. - 12 - month contract: In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays and the need for shipping companies to prepare for the next - year long - term contract negotiation, the freight rate is usually at a high level. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern of off - peak and peak seasons may be challenged [4]. 4. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: As of August 13, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 85,722 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 78,305 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [5]. - Spot: On August 8, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is $1961/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) is $1823/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) is $2792/FEU. On August 11, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2235.48 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1082.14 points [5]. 5. Container Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of now, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU. As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 737,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [5]. 6. Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Arbitrage: Go short on the 10 - month contract when the price is high [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate is in a downward cycle, and HPL has announced two additional ships in October [1][2][3] - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate. The 12 - month contract follows the seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, with the risk of whether the Suez Canal will reopen [3][4] - The strategy suggests that the main contract fluctuates weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on an arbitrage basis [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 12, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 79,656.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 45,620.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1528.00, 1350.00, 1482.10, 2082.00, 1417.60, and 1742.00 respectively [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - On August 8, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1961.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1823.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2792.00 US dollars/FEU. On August 11, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2235.48 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1082.14 points [5] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU. As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 737,300 TEU; 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [5] - From August to October 2025, the weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route showed certain fluctuations, and there were empty sailings and additional ships in August and September [2] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitically, a Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo for talks on a Gaza cease - fire framework, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the possibility of a partial cease - fire and hostage release agreement with Hamas no longer exists [1] - The speed of container ships of different capacities and the number of container ships passing through major canals such as the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama Canal are important factors affecting the supply chain [52][64][70] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Western holidays are concentrated in the fourth quarter, and merchants usually stock up in advance, which leads to a relatively high level of shipping volume. The freight rate is usually adjusted to a high level by shipping companies through supply - side measures [4] - The industrial production index, import amount from China, consumer confidence index, and retail sales year - on - year in the EU 27 countries, as well as China's export volume to the EU, are important indicators to measure demand and the European economy [73][80][83]