周恒 制图 □ 2012年至2025年，万得全A指数春节后20个交易日里上涨的概率达到75%。今年来看，A股在春节假 期后表现同样值得期待 □ 机构表示，央视2026年春晚科技感十足，人形机器人表现进步超预期，科技成为共识度较高的两大主 线之一，节后可关注机器人与AI技术应用板块 ◎记者 汪友若 马年A股的第一个交易日即将到来。春节长假期间，海外市场整体小幅反弹。美股止跌回升，大宗商品 表现强势，原油、黄金和铜价显著上涨。中国资产方面，富时中国A50指数期货上涨，港股主要指数震 荡整理。 光大证券则从日历效应角度分析，认为节后市场有望震荡上行。光大证券表示，从历史经验来看，受微 观流动性好转及投资者风险偏好抬升影响，A股市场在春节后的20个交易日里通常表现较好。2012年至 2025年，万得全A指数春节后20个交易日里上涨的概率达到75%。今年来看，A股在春节假期后表现同 样值得期待。除了日历效应之外，外围市场的上涨、国内产业端的催化等也将对行情产生积极影响。 "整体而言，资金流入和人心思涨的市场格局没有变化，节后春季行情有望延续。"中信证券在报告中提 示。该机构表示，配置型资金的流入趋势并未发生变化。中国人 ...

1月非银存款多增现象是多重因素共同作用的结果。去年同期低基数以及年初股市活跃吸引居民存款入 市成为推动非银存款增长的重要力量。 招商证券研究报告认为，2024年12月1日实施的同业存款利率新规直接导致2025年1月非银存款大幅多 减，构成了低基数效应。叠加当前积极的资本市场走势带动居民存款向非银存款搬家，最终表现为居民 存款同比少增和非银存款同比多增。 自2025年以来，居民存款增速逐步回落、非银存款持续多增的现象备受市场关注。这一存款结构的调 整，既反映出居民财富从传统存款向资管产品迁移的趋势，也让各方对银行体系流动性状况的关注日益 增加。 非银存款多增持续 数据显示，1月人民币存款增加8.09万亿元。其中，居民存款增加2.13万亿元，非金融企业存款增加2.61 万亿元，财政性存款增加1.55万亿元，非银行业金融机构存款增加1.45万亿元。 与往年相比，1月人民币存款新增规模大幅高于2025年同期的4.32万亿，且处于近年最高位置。居民存 款较2025年同期少增3.39万亿，非银金融存款则较2025年同期多增2.56万亿。 居民存款同比少增、非银存款同比多增现象在1月持续。 今年1月，人民币存款同比大幅多增 ...

公司借助奥运营销，在产品、渠道端不断出新，有望实现品牌势能和业绩持续向上 产品端，通过四大维度科技平台，不断加强专业科技属性，在核心品类打造IP爆品+完善产品矩阵。渠 道端，积极探索新业态，推出户外店、龙店，看好品类店未来成长空间。营销端，坚持单品牌、多品 类、多渠道策略，通过顶级赛事赞助+流量代言人+奥运营销，加大营销投入，有望持续提升品牌力。 坚持单品牌、多品类的头部国产运动品牌 李宁由体操王子李宁先生创立于1990年，2004年上市，是国内头部体育品牌。公司采取"单品牌、多品 类、多渠道"的发展策略，聚焦跑步、篮球、综训、羽毛球、乒乓球和运动休闲六大核心品类，围绕产 品体验、运动体验和购买体验创造"李宁式体验价值"。根据财报，2024年，公司实现营收/净利润分别 286.76/30.13亿元，核心品牌门店/儿童门店分别6117/1468家。分渠道，经销/直营/加盟/其他地区收入占 比分别为45.1%/24.0%/29.0%/1.9%；分品类，鞋类/服装/器材及配件收入占比分别为 49.9%/42.0%/8.1%。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，预计李宁(02331) 2025-2027年归母净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent 60 billion yuan private placement plan by Southwest Securities marks a significant event in the brokerage industry, indicating a revival in the refinancing market following new policies introduced by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges [2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The brokerage refinancing market has shifted from a low point to recovery, with several firms successfully completing private placements in 2025, including Guolian Minsheng Securities (2 billion), Guotai Junan Securities (10 billion), and others totaling 60 billion yuan [2][4]. - The total amount raised through private placements by brokerages in 2025 reached 716.89 billion yuan, a fivefold increase compared to 2024 [10]. Group 2: Capital Utilization - The funds raised through private placements are increasingly being allocated to a balanced development strategy rather than solely focusing on proprietary trading, with Southwest Securities planning to invest in securities investment and debt repayment, each not exceeding 15 billion yuan [7][8]. - Other brokerages, such as Tianfeng Securities and Nanjing Securities, have also shown a trend towards diversifying their capital allocation, focusing on wealth management, technology, and compliance [8][9]. Group 3: Strategic Support - The involvement of controlling shareholders in underwriting and committing to long-term holdings has become a common practice, as seen with Southwest Securities and other firms, which enhances market confidence [5][6]. - The regulatory environment has shifted towards differentiated easing, encouraging brokerages to enhance their operational quality and efficiency rather than merely expanding in scale [12].

回望2025年，全球经济分化加剧，美联储降息周期启幕，地缘政局扰动持续，关税事件推动市场波动加 大，全球投资者纷纷重新审视资产组合的风险敞口，资本市场经历了复杂多变的考验。香港作为连接中 国与世界的枢纽，凭借"一国两制"制度优势、独特的区位优势、中央政府及祖国内地的大力支持，逆势 突围、亮点纷呈，吸引全球资金流入，持续巩固并提升其国际金融中心地位。 2025年以来，香港资本市场屡创佳绩、硕果累累。这一年，港股IPO规模强势重返全球第一，全年集资 总额达2858亿港元，其中，中资企业IPO数量占比超90%，119家上市企业中，新经济公司占比超三分之 二，市场打新赚钱效应凸显，持续刷新记录的正面数据彰显了市场的活力与吸引力。 这一年，香港现货市场日均成交额同比增长89.5%，达到2498亿港元。衍生产品、ETP成交均创历史新 高，其中ETP市场超越日韩跃居全球第三，恒生科技指数ETF规模持续攀升。 这一年，南向资金年内净买入港股金额接近1.41万亿港元，刷新历史纪录，为市场注入充沛流动性。根 据广发证券1月末发布的报告，2024年9月以来，南向资金在港股市场的成交额占比显著提升至20%-30% 区间，较2024年 ...

包括埃隆·马斯克和蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)，越来越多科技行业领袖发出警示：一场全球性的芯片危机正 在逼近。内存芯片供应趋紧，已开始侵蚀企业利润、打乱既定规划，并抬高从笔记本电脑、智能手机到 汽车、数据中心在内几乎所有科技产品的价格。而这场"内存荒"只会愈演愈烈。 自2026年初以来，特斯拉、苹果等十余家大型企业相继表态，动态随机存取内存(DRAM)的短缺将制约 产能。作为几乎所有科技产品的核心部件，内存供应的收紧牵一发而动全身。库克直言，这将压缩 iPhone的利润空间。美光科技(Micron Technology Inc.)称这一瓶颈"前所未有"。马斯克则点明问题的棘 手程度：特斯拉可能不得不自行兴建内存芯片工厂。 "我们只有两条路：要么撞上芯片之墙，要么自己建厂，"他在1月下旬如此表示。 这场挤压的根源，在于AI数据中心的狂飙扩张。Alphabet Inc.与OpenAI等公司，为运行聊天机器人和各 类应用，正采购数百万枚搭载大容量内存的英伟达AI加速器，吞噬了越来越多的内存产能。消费电子 生产商只能艰难争抢三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)和美光(Micron)等企业日益减 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive performance during the New Year holiday, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.52%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.42%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index up by 0.13% [1] Group 2 - Since 2026, 143 companies have completed IPO applications, with 120 being first-time submissions. As of February 16, there are still 401 new stock applications pending in the Hong Kong market, including 4 companies that have passed the hearing [3] - Deloitte China predicts that the Hong Kong IPO market in 2026 may surpass last year, with approximately 160 new stocks expected to raise no less than 300 billion HKD [3] - The distribution of companies waiting for IPO includes 81 in the software services sector, 71 in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, 51 in hardware equipment, and 26 in semiconductors [3] - Recently listed technology companies have attracted significant interest from international long-term investors, with a notable focus on AI, semiconductors, embodied robotics, and biomedicine [3] Group 3 - Chinese securities firms are accelerating their investments in Hong Kong, with Dongwu Securities approved for a capital increase of 2 billion HKD for its Hong Kong subsidiary on February 13 [4] - Huazhang Securities and Northeast Securities have also received approval for capital increases of 500 million HKD each for their Hong Kong subsidiaries [4] - Since the beginning of 2026, Guangfa Securities and Huatai Securities have completed H-share refinancing of 6.1 billion HKD and 10 billion HKD, respectively, aimed at strengthening their overseas business [4] - In December 2025, China Merchants Securities announced a capital increase of up to 9 billion HKD for its wholly-owned subsidiary, with the first phase targeting a capital increase of no more than 4 billion HKD for its Hong Kong subsidiary [4]

机构观点 经济观察网 近7天内，能源政策领域出现重要动态。2026年2月11日，据报道美国总统特朗普计划通过 行政命令支持煤炭行业，包括指示国防部与燃煤电厂签订供电协议并提供1.75亿美元升级资金，旨在重 振化石燃料依赖。同期，氢能产业也迎来政策与市场双驱动趋势，如金辰股份等企业在制氢技术领域实 现突破，推动行业向多元化发展。 股票近期走势 受政策预期影响，能源股表现活跃。2月11日，美股多只煤炭股盘前拉升，Peabody Energy上涨近4%， 科尔黛伦矿业涨超2%；同日A股煤炭板块整体涨幅超1%，山西焦化涨近8%，兖矿能源涨近5%。这一 波动反映出市场对能源供应链情绪的短期反应。 机构对板块轮动和信托市场有所分析。银河证券在2月11日晨会中预计，2月上旬至春节资金将在科技和 有色等板块加速轮动，结构型行情突出。此外，用益信托报告显示，1月股票策略标品信托平均收益率 为5.23%，但需注意此为1月数据总结（发布于2月14日），且信托产品业绩受权益市场波动影响显著。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant trend of residents shifting their savings from traditional bank deposits to asset management products, driven by recent financial data and changing market conditions [2][6]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, household deposits increased by 2.13 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits rose by 2.61 trillion yuan, and non-bank financial institution deposits grew by 1.45 trillion yuan [2][3]. - The broad money supply (M2) reached 347.19 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 117.97 trillion yuan, growing by 4.9% [3][4]. - Compared to the same period in 2025, non-bank deposits increased significantly by 2.56 trillion yuan, while household deposits saw a decrease of 3.39 trillion yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Analysis of Deposit Trends - Analysts note that the acceleration of household deposit migration is evident, with the growth rate of household deposits turning negative for the first time in 7.5 years [5]. - The difference between household deposit growth and M2 growth is -1.82 percentage points, indicating a significant shift in savings behavior [5]. - The trend of residents moving their savings to non-bank financial institutions reflects a broader movement towards asset management products [6][7]. Group 3: Future Implications - The upcoming maturity of a large volume of household fixed-term deposits, estimated between 30 trillion to 70 trillion yuan, is expected to influence where these funds will be allocated, particularly towards equity markets [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be a flow of funds into low-risk assets, the actual movement into riskier assets like equities will depend on market conditions [7][8]. - The potential for continued adjustment in asset allocation between stocks and bonds is anticipated, especially in light of fixed asset investment trends and economic growth expectations [8].

盘面来看，收官日呈现结构性行情，板块走势分化，资金以节前稳健布局为主，市场情绪整体平稳。具 体来看，半导体板块普涨，澜起科技涨14.05%，兆易创新涨9.78%，华虹半导体涨1.16%；黄金股同步 走强，灵宝黄金涨4.80%，中国黄金国际涨4.75%，紫金矿业涨4.67%，潼关黄金涨3.55%，赤峰黄金涨 3.51%。 对于短期市场运行节奏，中国工商银行(亚洲)证券业务部分析员叶泽恒接受中新社记者采访时表示，受 农历新年假期影响，大市成交金额逐步回落。科技板块估值相对较低，未来业务增长较快，调整后有望 重新获得资金关注。当前市场资金已从网购、游戏类科技股，转向拥有人工智能大模型的相关企业。 耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉表示，港股当周仅一个半日市，市场难以看出明确方向，预计在北向资金回 归前，恒生指数短期难有大幅波动，成交量亦持续收缩，恒生指数大概率在26000点至27000点区间震 荡。 中新社香港2月16日电 (记者戴小橦)2月16日，港股迎来蛇年收官半日市，市场以红盘为蛇年画上句号。 截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.52%，报26705.94点；恒生科技指数涨0.13%；国企指数涨0.42%，三大指数当 日同步上扬， ...