作 者丨周潇枭 编 辑丨季媛媛 图 源| 2 1世纪经济报道 6月21日，中国人民大学中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）2025年中期论坛在京举行，本期论坛聚 焦"稳舵远航的中国宏观经济"。 重庆市原市长黄奇帆在论坛上发言表示，未来五年的"十五五"期间，中国经济进入到全力推 动新质生产力发展的阶段。抓好新质生产力，从增量上，要抓好中央提出的15个战略新兴和 未来产业；从存量上，就是现在100多亿工业制造业产值，要着力抓好绿色、低碳化和数字智 能化的发展，用绿色低碳和数字智能赋能融合到存量的生产力体系。在服务业方面，要着力 抓好生产性服务业。生产性服务业有十个大类，分别是技术开发和创新、物流配套服务、金 融服务、检验检测认证服务、绿色低碳服务、数字化服务、销售和售后服务、品牌广告和知 识产权服务、会计和法律等专业咨询服务、人才培养和管理服务等。 黄奇帆表示，生产性服务业不仅是制造业高科技发展的温床、土壤，也是新质生产力发展的 温床、土壤。生产性服务业还自带光环，直接就是GDP的增长极、独角兽的主要板块，是服 务贸易发展的基础，是高端装备附加值最主要的来源，是全要素生产率的组成部分。 "中国的生产性服务业，前两年的数据是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the need for a stable economic environment in China, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the production service industry as key drivers for economic growth [1][3][10]. Group 1: Production Service Industry - The production service industry is crucial for improving manufacturing efficiency and technological advancement, spanning the entire industrial chain [3]. - There is a call to elevate the share of the production service industry from 27%-28% to 35% over the next decade, which would contribute to a more rational industrial structure and high-quality development [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The current economic landscape faces challenges such as insufficient effective demand and low prices, necessitating a rich toolbox of monetary policy to support stable economic growth [4][6]. - The establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai is part of the strategy to enhance monetary policy tools [6]. Group 3: International Competition and Foreign Investment - The international competitive landscape has shifted from vertical to horizontal division, with increased competition from domestic firms leading to the exit of some foreign companies [7][9]. - There is a recognition of the need to improve the investment environment to attract foreign investment, despite the challenges posed by the changing competitive dynamics [8]. Group 4: Domestic Demand Expansion - The need to address the shortfall in domestic consumption is highlighted, with a focus on increasing residents' income and enhancing service consumption [11]. - Policies should ensure that fiscal spending growth outpaces nominal GDP growth to effectively stimulate total demand [11]. Group 5: Stabilizing Enterprises - Stabilizing enterprises is deemed essential for achieving broader economic stability, with recommendations for improving business conditions and market environments [12][14]. - Enhancing enterprise vitality through property rights protection and reducing administrative monopolies is crucial for fostering a competitive market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the need for a stable economic environment in China, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the production service industry as key drivers for economic growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Production Service Industry - The production service industry is crucial for improving manufacturing efficiency and technological advancement, and it should be prioritized during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. - There is a goal to increase the share of the production service industry from 27%-28% to 35% over the next decade, which will contribute to a more rational industrial structure and high-quality development of China's modern industrial system [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The current economic environment faces challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low prices, necessitating a rich toolbox of monetary policy to support stable economic growth [4]. - The establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai is a significant step towards enhancing China's monetary policy framework [4]. Group 3: International Competition and Openness - The international competitive landscape has shifted, with China moving from vertical to horizontal division of labor, leading to increased competition from domestic firms against multinational corporations [5]. - Despite some foreign companies exiting the market, there is a growing willingness among multinational executives to engage with Chinese firms, indicating a dual nature of international business relations [5][6]. Group 4: Domestic Demand Expansion - The need to address insufficient effective demand is highlighted, with a focus on increasing consumer spending and improving residents' income levels [7]. - Policies should aim to ensure that fiscal spending growth outpaces nominal GDP growth to effectively stimulate total demand [7]. Group 5: Stabilizing Enterprises - Stabilizing enterprises is essential for achieving broader economic stability, with recommendations to improve business conditions and market environments [8][9]. - Enhancing enterprise vitality is critical, with a focus on property rights protection and creating a fair competitive environment for both state-owned and private enterprises [9]. Group 6: Economic Growth Channels - The report suggests that to maintain economic growth, it is necessary to "turn on the faucet" for growth drivers and ensure that the channels for economic benefits reach the public [10][11]. - Specific measures include encouraging employment through subsidies and improving income distribution systems to alleviate low-quality competition [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic upgrade of PCG Power (碧澄能源) with the introduction of Temasek as a new strategic shareholder, alongside other notable investors [1][3][5] - PCG Power aims to establish a comprehensive industrial chain covering "clean power - smart grid - terminal electrification," leveraging its unique dual-driven model and AIoT technology for customized green energy solutions [3][5] - The company has achieved a cumulative scale of over 1 GW in new energy station construction and grid connection, leading the distributed clean energy sector for commercial and industrial applications in China [3][9] Group 2 - The strategic investment from globally recognized institutions is expected to enhance PCG Power's global expansion, asset scale, and capital operations [5] - PCG Power's chairman, Li Wenxuan, emphasized the importance of strategic investors with industrial synergy to improve global resource integration and support long-term international development [5] - Temasek, based in Singapore, has a net investment portfolio value of SGD 389 billion (approximately RMB 2,080 billion) as of March 31, 2024, indicating its significant financial capacity [8]

双边贸易兼具探索性示范性 中国—中东欧国家合作机制启动以来，双边贸易年均增长8.8%，高于同期中国对外贸易增速。今年5 月，第四届中国—中东欧国家博览会成功举办。进一步挖掘双方贸易投资潜力，开展更高水平合作，将 为世界经济注入更多稳定性和正能量。本期特邀专家围绕相关问题进行研讨。 马骏驰（中国欧洲学会中东欧研究分会副秘书长）：近年来，中国—中东欧投资合作蓬勃发展。据商务 部不完全统计，截至2024年末，中国对中东欧投资规模累计超240亿美元。得益于新能源汽车等产业投 资带动，中东欧成为中国对欧投资的首选之地。 中国与中东欧国家贸易合作涵盖哪些领域？呈现怎样的特点？ 徐坡岭（中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所研究员）：在全球经济格局深度调整与区域合作加速重 构的背景下，中国与中东欧国家经贸合作成为共建"一带一路"倡议与欧盟发展战略对接的重要实践样 本。自2012年中国—中东欧国家合作机制成立以来，双方逐步构建起多层次、宽领域的合作框架。面对 国际产业链供应链重塑与绿色转型浪潮，中国与中东欧国家依托发展战略协同、产业梯度互补与制度创 新赋能，持续推动双边贸易规模扩大、结构优化、模式升级，为跨区域合作提供了兼具探索 ...

Group 1 - The first second-hand multi-category circular warehouse store "Super Turn" opened in Beijing, covering over 3000 square meters and offering a variety of second-hand products, marking a strategic move by the company in a competitive second-hand market [1] - The AI startup SiliconFlow completed a Series A financing round of several hundred million yuan, led by Alibaba Cloud, indicating its growth potential and industry value as it lowers the barrier for developers to use advanced AI models [2] - Kudi Coffee signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with the Rwandan Ministry of Agriculture to invest in a coffee plantation, which includes various demonstration parks, leveraging Rwanda's quality coffee resources for competitive advantage [3] Group 2 - ProLogis announced the operation of an energy storage project tailored for Shentong Express, with a total capacity of 2.75MW/5.83MWh, marking a significant step in energy optimization within the logistics industry [4] - The collaboration between ProLogis and Shentong Express aims to provide comprehensive energy services across the country, reflecting a forward-looking approach in response to rising electricity costs and stricter environmental requirements in the logistics sector [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The logistics industry is showing positive trends, but the warehousing rental market is adopting a "price - for - volume" strategy due to supply shocks. The current high - rent period of Southern SF Logistics REIT is a window of opportunity for investment, and investors who meet the income conditions can consider allocating it at an appropriate time [1][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Logistics activities are improving, but warehousing facilities are rented at the expense of price for volume - **Logistics industry boom has significantly increased, and the proportion of logistics storage costs has been stable with a slight increase**: In April 2025, China's Logistics Prosperity Index was 51.1%, remaining in the expansion range. The warehousing logistics industry is cyclical, affected by e - commerce promotions and manufacturing business peaks. In 2024, the total social logistics cost was 19.0 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, and the storage cost was 6.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 34% of the total social logistics cost [11][15]. - **The domestic high - standard warehouse industry has a "one - super - many - strong" pattern, and the supply shock will continue**: The domestic high - standard warehouse industry is highly concentrated, with GLP having a leading market share. Different development entities have increased the supply of high - standard warehouses. Due to the slowdown of macro - economic recovery and continuous supply release, the market generally adopts a "price - for - volume" strategy, but still faces short - term challenges of falling rents and rising vacancy rates [20][24]. - **Domestic warehousing logistics REITs are also facing a "price - for - volume" situation, and rents have declined**: As of May 16, 2025, 9 warehousing logistics REITs have been listed in China, involving 31 underlying assets. In 2025, the operating occupancy rates and rent levels of these REITs are still under pressure, and many projects will adopt a more aggressive "price - for - volume" strategy [31][35]. 3.2 SF Hong Kong REIT performs well and is an effective reference for domestic REITs - **SF Holdings adopts a self - operated logistics model, providing stable demand for Hong Kong and Shenzhen REITs**: SF Holdings is the largest comprehensive logistics service provider in China and Asia and the fourth - largest in the world. It has many key site resources such as logistics industrial parks, which can provide potential rental demand and expansion assets for its REITs [41][44]. - **SF Hong Kong REIT has been in operation for many years, with a high proportion of related tenants but stable performance**: Since its listing in 2021, SF REIT has been operating stably. Its first - largest tenant is the SF Holdings Group, and the rental area of SF Group tenants in 2024 accounted for 80.3% of the rentable area. The overall occupancy rate of its 4 properties has remained above 98% in the past three years [51][66]. - **The valuation of SF Hong Kong REIT has been adjusted downward, and the downward pressure on warehousing logistics assets still exists**: Affected by the decrease in occupancy rate and rent, the valuation of SF REIT decreased by 8.9% in 2024. It will face the renewal test of related tenants in 2026, and the subsequent lease term, rent, and increase rate need to be evaluated [68][70]. - **SF Hong Kong REIT has experienced multiple market cycles, and the low stock price has led to a dividend yield of over 7%**: Since its listing, SF REIT has experienced multiple market cycles and has been in a discounted state for a long time. From 2021 - 2024, its annualized distribution yields were 7.9%, 9.5%, 10.7%, and 8.8% respectively [73][74]. 3.3 Southern SF Logistics REIT, cherish the window period of the current high - rent period - **The underlying assets of SF's domestic REIT are sorting centers, which are important sites for express delivery services**: The underlying assets of Southern SF Logistics REIT include three projects in Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Hefei, with a total asset valuation of about 3.041 billion yuan. The sorting center area accounts for about 55% of the total rentable area, and the income accounts for a relatively high proportion [79][82]. - **The asset competition between the Hong Kong and Shenzhen REITs has eased, and each has its own regional focus**: SF REIT has the pre - emptive right to purchase SF Group's assets. In the future, SF Holdings will fully negotiate when selling assets to the two REITs. SF REIT will focus on South China and Southwest China, while Southern SF Logistics REIT will focus on the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River [88][89]. - **It highly depends on SF Group tenants, and the occupancy rate is expected to be generally stable**: As of September 30, 2024, the related - party rental area of Southern SF Logistics REIT accounted for 84.29% of the rented area, and the related - party contributed 88.45% of the monthly rent and management fee income. Although the high concentration of tenants has both advantages and disadvantages, the occupancy rate is expected to be generally stable [91]. - **The valuation has considered the risk of rent decline, and the current distribution rate is a good allocation period**: As of May 16, 2025, the market value of Southern SF Logistics REIT was 3.766 billion yuan, and the expected cash distribution rate in 2025 was 3.98%, ranking in the upper - middle level among the 9 listed warehousing logistics REITs. The current high - rent period before 2027 is a window of opportunity for investment [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - The logistics industry in China has shown significant improvement, with the logistics industry prosperity index at 51.1% in April 2025, indicating expansion[1] - The average effective rent in major city clusters has declined, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region down 3.7%, Yangtze River Delta down 6.1%, and the Pearl River Delta down 0.3%[2] - As of May 16, 2025, there are 9 listed logistics REITs in China, with 31 underlying assets, facing pressure on rental rates and occupancy[2] Group 2: REIT Performance - SF Hong Kong REIT, initiated by SF Holding, has been stable since its listing in May 2021, with a valuation drop to HKD 6.7 billion in 2024, down 8.9%[3] - The Southern SF Logistics REIT, listed in April 2025, focuses on high-quality assets in the South China and Southeast Asia regions, with a market value of CNY 3.766 billion and an expected cash distribution rate of 3.98% in 2025[4] - The Southern SF Logistics REIT's rental rates are currently above market averages, but there is a risk of downward adjustment upon lease renewals[4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The high-standard warehouse sector in China is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" market structure, with Prologis leading in market share[2] - The logistics REITs are adopting a "price for volume" strategy to maintain occupancy amid supply shocks, leading to rental declines and rising vacancy rates[2] - The average vacancy rates in major city clusters are high, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region at 28.6% and the Yangtze River Delta at 25.4%[2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The logistics sector is expected to face continued pressure from rental declines and increased vacancy rates due to ongoing supply releases[2] - The Southern SF Logistics REIT is positioned to benefit from the current high rental period before potential adjustments in 2027[4] - Risks include unexpected policy changes regarding public REITs and operational risks associated with infrastructure projects[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the ecological improvement and vibrant cultural activities in Putuo District, showcasing a commitment to green development and environmental protection [1][2][4] - In 2023, Putuo District achieved an air quality good days ratio of 88%, with PM2.5 concentration at 28 micrograms per cubic meter, and 100% compliance in water quality for 10 key monitoring points [1][2] - The district has implemented the "Beautiful Putuo Construction Three-Year Action Plan (2024-2026)" with 118 specific tasks aimed at pollution prevention, ecological restoration, spatial enhancement, and industrial transformation [2][6] Group 2 - Putuo District has established the first photochemical component automatic monitoring station in the city, which can analyze 116 types of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), improving ozone concentration by 10.2% year-on-year [2][3] - The district has built 10 surface water micro-automatic monitoring stations, achieving full coverage of 10 city monitoring points, with high compliance rates in water quality [3][6] - A biodiversity assessment conducted by East China Normal University recorded 692 terrestrial species and 214 aquatic species, highlighting the ecological diversity in the area [3][6] Group 3 - In 2023, Putuo District added 184,800 square meters of green space and two new urban parks, with a green coverage rate of 32.18% in the Peach Pu area [4][5] - The TOP Central Park serves as a significant low-carbon ecological construction project, providing a large public green space and hosting various cultural and recreational activities [4][5] - The district's initiatives have led to the successful organization of events like the "Half Marathon on Suzhou River," attracting 7,000 runners from 39 countries [5][6] Group 4 - The optimization of the ecological environment has spurred new development opportunities, with key industries like smart software, R&D services, and life sciences growing by 15.57% year-on-year [6][7] - The first "near-zero carbon park" in Putuo District integrates ecological landscape roads and green spaces, contributing to a carbon sink network [6][7] - Traditional manufacturing companies are also advancing resource conservation, with Schneider Electric achieving recognition as a "world-class end-to-end lighthouse factory" [7]

Group 1 - The report highlights the approval of the first collective economy REITs project in China, which aims to break the traditional reliance on bank loans and fiscal subsidies for financing, thereby reducing debt ratios and enabling light asset operations [2][4]. - During the reporting period, there were five investment events recorded, with the majority being self-built by leading enterprises, except for the SHEIN Bay Area Western Smart Industrial Park project [2]. - The report indicates a total of nine financing events, including bonds, REITs, ABS, and funds, with a focus on community collective economic units as underlying assets [4]. Group 2 - The industrial park includes seven buildings with a total construction area of approximately 55,000 square meters, featuring various facilities such as an enterprise incubation center and a public service platform [3]. - The next steps for the park involve integrating "industrial-city integration" and "benefiting the people" strategies, while exploring mechanisms that combine collective economy and public services [5]. - The rental distribution of tenants in the project is primarily in the automotive manufacturing and technology promotion sectors, with specific percentages allocated to various industries [6]. Group 3 - Several REITs reported their 2024 performance, with Dongwu Suyuan REIT showing the highest revenue of 265 million yuan, but also reporting negative net profits [8]. - The overall revenue situation indicates that five REITs, including Dongwu Suyuan REIT, are facing revenue decline pressures, attributed to challenges in the macroeconomic environment and increased competition in the Suzhou Industrial Park [8].