国泰海通晨报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 宏观快报点评：《稳中求进，修炼内功》2025-12-11 中央经济工作会议 12 月 11-12 日在北京举行，会议贯彻了 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议对经济工作 的定调，部署了 2026 年经济工作的八大重点任务。 总体来看，会议充分肯定了今年的经济工作，总结当前经济面临的机遇与挑战，下调对外风险评 价，重视短期的扩大内需和中长期的"内功"修炼。预计 2026 年宏观政策有望延续积极基调，但不搞 大水漫灌强刺激，做好"逆周期"调节的同时，也会注重"跨周期"调节。 具体来看，会议新闻稿有以下六个亮点： [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：政策基调总体温和，下调对外风险评价，重视短期的扩大内需和中长期的"内 功"修炼。 2、【策略研究】：政策预期有望上修，市场交投有望活跃，在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转 型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上并站上新高度。跨年攻势已经开始，看好科技/券商保险/消费。 3、【食品饮料研究】乳制品：原奶价格企稳筑底，26 年上行确定性较强，肉牛景气周期有望延 续，肉奶周期共振下牧业企业盈利弹性可 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [7]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is experiencing a rebound in public and business demand, with expectations for ticket price profitability to rise by 2026, suggesting a strategic investment during this super cycle [3][7]. - In the oil shipping sector, freight rates remain high, and the potential impact of Russia-Ukraine negotiations is expected to be limited, indicating a positive outlook for future market conditions [3][7]. - The airport duty-free segment anticipates increased competition among leading domestic and foreign companies, which is expected to drive growth in sales [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - Recent recovery in public and business demand is noted, with a focus on state-owned enterprises reducing "involution" competition. The aviation sector entered a traditional off-peak season from September, with public and business demand being a key factor influencing ticket prices. Ticket prices have shown a year-on-year increase due to the release of suppressed demand from the summer travel season [7]. - The report forecasts that by December, public and business passenger flow will increase, with ticket prices expected to continue rising year-on-year, although the growth rate may narrow. The report anticipates a significant reduction in losses by Q4 2025, with a full-year turnaround expected [7]. - Recommendations include major airlines such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [7]. Oil Shipping - Freight rates are expected to maintain a high level, with the impact of U.S. sanctions on shadow fleets being a significant factor. The report highlights that recent increases in oil production from the Middle East and South America have driven VLCC TCE rates to rise, with Q4 2025 profits projected to reach a ten-year high [7]. - The report suggests that while seasonal factors may affect short-term freight rates, the overall upward trend for the year remains intact. The global increase in oil production is expected to drive demand for oil shipping beyond expectations [7]. - Recommended companies in this sector include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, China Merchants Jinling, and China Ship Leasing [7]. Airport Duty-Free - The report discusses a new round of duty-free contract adjustments at Shanghai Airport, anticipating that competition among leading domestic and foreign companies will drive sales growth. The new bidding results indicate a shift in the contract model, which may stabilize or enhance airport duty-free revenues [7]. - The introduction of foreign competitors and a revised commission structure are expected to improve the operational enthusiasm of duty-free operators, potentially leading to increased sales [7]. - Recommendations include Shanghai Airport and Beijing Capital International Airport [7].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the express delivery sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding and Zhongtong Express as favorable investment opportunities [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth of 6% in the development scale index for November, with major companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is advised to focus on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight increase in flight volumes, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines based on profit elasticity from supply-demand optimization [4]. - The shipping sector sees a stable demand for container transport, with COSCO Shipping announcing new ship orders valued at 7.88 billion yuan [5]. - The road and rail sector shows a mixed performance, with a slight decline in truck traffic but a stable outlook for coal transportation [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 1.5% during the week of December 6-12, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.4% [13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The container shipping index CCFI is at 1118.07 points, a 0.3% increase week-on-week but a 24.8% decrease year-on-year [22]. - The oil shipping index BDTI is at 1383.6 points, down 1.7% week-on-week but up 48.8% year-on-year [40]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 1.99% and international flights up by 7.78% [4]. - In October 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 67.84 million, a year-on-year increase of 8% [60]. 2.3 Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume in October 2025 was 410 million, a 10.14% increase year-on-year [81]. - National road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a slight increase of 0.08% year-on-year [86]. 2.4 Express Delivery and Logistics - The total express delivery volume for the week of December 1-7 was approximately 3.979 billion pieces, a 1.7% increase year-on-year [2].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 交通运输 快递、民航"反内卷"整治持续，VLCC 受制裁名单再扩大 周观点：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，会议明确"制 定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整治'内卷式'竞争"。继续看好快递、 航空在"反内卷"整治下的投资机会。快递反内卷线：快递行业份额逐步 向头部快递集中，反内卷政策下恶性价格战得到有效遏制，头部快递份额、 利润同步提升，有望迎来双击。快递出海线：快递出海，天地广阔，海外 电商 GMV 爆发式增长，带动快递业务量迅猛增长，相关标的为极兔速递。 看好"反内卷"整治下航空板块中长期景气度：运力供给维持低增速、需 求持续恢复，供需缺口缩小叠加油价中枢下移及"反内卷"政策继续推进， 静待票价持续修复、航司盈利不断改善。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.55%，跑输上证指数 1.21 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.34%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，仅 公路货运板块上涨，涨幅为 4.76%；跌幅前三名分别为公交、高速公路、 铁路运输板块，对应跌幅分别为-4.97%、-2.49% ...

Group 1 - The tourism industry in Japan is experiencing significant declines due to deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations, with many cancellations of bookings from Chinese tourists [1][2] - In the Kansai region, over 50% of bookings were canceled in November, and December bookings are nearly nonexistent, comparable to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - A bus tour company reported only three to four groups booked for December, down from 100 groups in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Hotel bookings from Chinese tourists dropped by 57% during the week of November 21-27 compared to the previous week, indicating a severe impact on the hotel industry [2] - A hotel in Osaka, which previously had 20% of its guests from China, expects a 20% decline in revenue for December compared to the previous year [2][4] - The Kansai International Airport saw a 10% decrease in round-trip flights between Japan and China in November, with 34% of flights canceled for December [5][6] Group 3 - The number of winter flights between Japan and China is expected to decrease by an average of 28% starting January, with significant cancellations already reported [6] - Major hotels in Hokkaido are also seeing a rise in cancellations from Chinese tourists for January and February, affecting winter tourism [7] - The overall impact of these cancellations is spreading to various sectors, including department stores, which are also reporting lower sales [5][7]

人民网河内12月13日电 （记者白晓川）12月12日，河内中国文化中心联合中国国航系各航司共同举办"你 好！中国"中国冬季旅游推广活动，旨在深度挖掘中国冬季旅游资源的独特优势和多元魅力，串联北方冰雪"冷"资 源，点亮中越跨境文旅"热"经济。河内中国文化中心主任张德山、中国国际航空公司河内总经理索利峰以及各航 司和旅行社负责人出席了相关活动。 作为中越往来交流的"空中桥梁"，中国国航系各航司始终致力于为旅客提供安全、便捷、舒适的航空服务， 面对日益增长的市场需求，持续优化越南河内、胡志明市至中国北京、上海、广州、成都、深圳等多地的航线网 络，科学增加航班频次，灵活调整机型配置，旨在为越南游客赴华旅游、商务、探亲构建更加高效、顺畅的空中 通道。 未来，随着更多中越人文交流活动的推动实施，中越跨境旅游服务也将持续优化，中国将以更加开放、多 元、温暖的姿态，迎接世界游客的到来，让每一场冰雪之约，都成为文化互鉴、友谊共筑的美好篇章。 12月12日，"你好！中国"冬季旅游推广活动在河内举行。人民网记者 白晓川摄 河内文化中心主任张德山表示，签证便利化和支付便捷化等一系列"入境中国游"举措的落地实施，让中越双 边人员往来的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, specifically recommending China Power, China Shipbuilding, and China Ship Defense, while also highlighting Yangtze River and Songfa shares as potential investments [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates an improvement in new ship orders during November and December, reinforcing the logic of the replacement cycle. The strong second-hand ship prices are positively influencing the new ship market [4]. - The report notes that VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have exceeded expectations, with a current average of $114,420 per day, despite a slight week-on-week decline of 1%. The report anticipates significant upward potential for both charter rates and second-hand ship prices [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the railway freight volume and highway truck traffic, suggesting steady growth in these sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - VLCC freight rates have shown a 110% increase in Q4 compared to Q3, with one-year charter rates rising by 23%. The report highlights that the second-hand ship prices have yet to reflect these changes [4]. - The Suezmax crude oil tanker rates have decreased by 4% to $71,888 per day, while Aframax rates increased by 3% to $62,987 per day [4]. Air Transportation - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing chain and the ongoing trend of aging aircraft globally. It predicts a significant improvement in airline profitability as the industry approaches a turning point [4]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others, due to their strong demand and supply dynamics [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price stabilization leading to profit recovery, continued competitive pressure, and potential mergers and acquisitions [4]. - Companies to watch include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and ZTO Express, with a focus on their performance in the upcoming annual reports [4]. Road and Rail - The report cites data from the Ministry of Transport indicating that from December 1 to December 7, national railway freight volume was 80.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.35% week-on-week [4]. - The report suggests that the highway sector will benefit from two main investment themes throughout 2025: high dividend yields and potential value management catalysts [4].

从资金流向上来看，当日航空机场板块主力资金净流入1525.33万元，游资资金净流出9827.9万元，散户 资金净流入8302.58万元。航空机场板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，12月12日航空机场板块较上一交易日上涨0.65%，中国国航领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3889.35，上涨0.41%。深证成指报收于13258.33，上涨0.84%。航空机场板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 ...

Core Insights - The Beijing Aircraft Engine Maintenance Project has officially opened, marking a significant breakthrough in China's high-end aircraft engine maintenance sector [1][2] - The project is a joint venture between China International Airlines and Rolls-Royce, with each holding a 50% stake, filling a gap in high-thrust engine maintenance capabilities in mainland China [1][2] - The establishment of Beijing Aircraft Engine Maintenance Co., Ltd. (BAESL) enhances the self-repair capabilities and safety levels of the civil aviation industry in China [1] Company Overview - BAESL has received formal maintenance certification from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, enabling it to conduct deep maintenance on engines [2] - The company plans to gradually undertake major repairs for various Rolls-Royce engines starting in 2026, aiming to reach an annual capacity of 250 engine overhauls by 2034 [2] Industry Context - The Capital Airport Economic Zone is a leader in domestic airport economic development, housing over 240 aviation service enterprises, and forming the largest aviation service industry cluster in China [2] - The economic zone has seen a revenue increase of 6.5% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the aviation maintenance sector, which generates an annual industrial output value of 14 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 20% of the national total [2][3] - The launch of BAESL is expected to enhance the regional aviation industry's competitiveness and inject new momentum into the development of high-end aviation services in China [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic demand is recovering ahead of external demand, with a focus on low base effects in 2026, making bottomed-out sectors worth attention [3] - It highlights that upstream sectors are recovering before downstream sectors, with significant demand elasticity expected in early 2026, particularly in bulk supply chains and dry bulk shipping [3] - The report notes that price increases are anticipated before volume growth, with a focus on dry bulk shipping, e-commerce logistics, and airlines benefiting from supply constraints and favorable oil exchange rates [3] Industry Overview - The transportation sector ranked 29th in the market as of December 10, 2025, reflecting significant pressure on fundamentals, with a -1% performance in the Shenwan primary transportation index [18][19] - The report identifies structural opportunities in logistics and shipping, despite the overall economic cycle affecting the sector [20] - It indicates that the transportation sector's performance is closely tied to economic fundamentals, with a notable correlation between ROE and economic cycles [23] Sub-industry Analysis - In logistics, domestic demand is stabilizing while external trade remains robust, with expectations of price increases due to anti-involution policies [11][20] - The airline sector is experiencing improvements in supply and demand, with a focus on capturing opportunities in private airlines and airport duty-free consumption recovery [11][20] - The shipping sector, particularly dry bulk shipping, is highlighted as a cost-effective opportunity for 2026, driven by supply and demand dynamics [11][20] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strategy of seeking alpha within beta, focusing on sectors with low beta characteristics that are expected to turn around in 2026 [11][20] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying individual stocks within the transportation sector that can outperform the broader market, given the anticipated recovery in demand [11][20] - The report outlines a cautious but optimistic outlook for 2026, with a focus on sectors that have shown resilience and potential for recovery [11][20]