周三(2月18日)：美联储1月FOMC会议纪要公布。 周五(2月20日)：美国12月PCE数据及第四季度GDP初值；美国最高法院定于2月20日宣判，就特朗普关 税案作出裁决。 中国宏观 本周，春节迎来史上最长假期，2月15日至23日放假调休，A股休市。 来源：智通财经 智通财经2月16日讯（编辑 冯轶）智通财经为您带来本周港股要闻： 海外宏观 周一(2月16日)：欧元区财长将于2月16日将讨论发行欧元计价稳定币及增加欧盟联合债券等方案，以提 升欧元的国际货币地位。 周二(2月17日)：乌克兰准备于2月17日或18日在美国举行会晤。 行业动态 周一(2月16日)：首届印度人工智能峰会将在新德里举行，英伟达CEO黄仁勋、谷歌CEO皮查伊等全球 科技领袖确认参会。 周三(2月18日)：谷歌发布Pixel 10a手机。 港股要闻 周一(2月16日)：港股除夕半日市，周二至周四休市。 周五(2月20日)：港股开盘。 此外，AI成为春节假期绝对主角，国内方面，DeepSeek V4预计春节面世，字节、阿里等巨头齐聚"春 节档"发布新模型或应用， ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：有研识泰山 过去我们习惯了 "唱空中国"，如今又流行起"唱衰美国"，预测华尔街何时崩盘。2024年，我也曾是其中的一员，认为华 尔街风险高企，道指、纳指高得离谱。2025年，英伟达股价从140美元暴跌至80美元的"雪崩"，似乎印 证了这种担忧。然而，短暂的风暴过后，道指与纳指却再创历史新高。 这不禁让我们反思：为什么我们会觉得股市太高？人性中有畏高和从众的心理，但资本市场往往是反人 性的，甚至反常识。华尔街有一条百年铁律：在很多时候，股价越贵，反而越安全。因为那里凝聚着最 优质的资产、最强大的信心和最前沿的未来。 如今，全球呈现几大奇观：不倒的华尔街、不倒的巴菲特、不倒的黄金，还有疯狂的马斯克、自大的川 普，以及半疯半傲的黄仁勋。尽管2026年1月29日黄金也曾"雪崩"，但历史告诉我们，它是否会像2025 年的华尔街一样，在暴跌后昂扬而去？ 当我们透视华尔街与A股时，习惯从"中美博弈"或"国运之争"的角度切入。这固然重要，但这些维度都 潜藏着"此消彼长"、"输赢对决"的预设。但如果我们将视野拉高，跳出地球的局限，抽离历史的惯性， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility and structural differentiation during the Year of the Snake, with major indices showing mid-tier performance globally, while the internal dynamics highlighted a clear "tech-traditional" dichotomy [1] - Major memory chip companies such as Western Digital, Micron Technology, and Seagate Technology saw dramatic stock price increases of 495%, 368%, and 333% respectively, marking them as the biggest winners [1] - Gold mining stocks like Gold Rush, Newmont, and Barrick Gold also surged over 226%, correlating with the significant rises in COMEX silver (150.21%) and gold (82.97%) prices [1] Group 2 - Following the unexpected global tariff policy introduced by the Trump administration, the S&P 500 experienced a two-day drop of 10.53%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $6.6 trillion, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 entered a technical bear market [2] - The market rebounded dramatically, with the Nasdaq soaring 12% in a single day and the S&P rising nearly 10%, driven by AI giants like Nvidia, which saw its market cap exceed $4 trillion and $5 trillion, surpassing the combined market cap of the UK and French stock markets [2] - Traditional stocks represented by companies like Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar began to rise, indicating a shift in capital towards cyclical sectors amidst increasing caution regarding tech monopolies [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, there is a notable divergence in outlook among major investment banks: Morgan Stanley is optimistic, predicting the S&P 500 will rise to 7800 points, favoring small-cap, cyclical, and financial sectors due to expected profit growth and AI efficiency [3] - Morgan Chase suggests a "structural bull market" with a target of 7500 points for the S&P, while Goldman Sachs warns of economic slowdown risks in the second half of the year, indicating limited rotation potential [3] - The Year of the Snake showcased a dramatic narrative in the capital markets, transitioning from tariff-induced declines to AI-driven exuberance, raising questions about the sustainability of growth in AI and the potential for traditional industries to overcome concentration challenges [3]

来源：环球市场播报 伯克希尔・哈撒韦新任 CEO 对卡夫亨氏新任 CEO 本周宣布的意外转向表示认可。 在这家食品企业的四季度财报中，史蒂夫・卡希莱恩表示，自他上任五周以来已认识到："公司机遇比 预期更大，诸多挑战均有解决办法，且在可控范围内。"因此，他决定暂停去年 9 月宣布的卡夫与亨氏 分拆计划。该计划一旦实施，实质上将逆转巴菲特在 2015 年主导促成的两家公司合并。 伯克希尔是卡夫亨氏第一大股东，持股 27.5%，当前市值约 81 亿美元。 在向媒体发布的声明中，伯克希尔 CEO 格雷格・阿贝尔对这一调整表示支持："我们支持 CEO 史蒂 夫・卡希莱恩及卡夫亨氏董事会在新管理团队带领下暂停此前分拆计划的决定。此举可让管理层专注于 提升公司竞争力、服务客户的能力。" 巴菲特通常不会公开批评伯克希尔旗下公司管理层，但五个多月前分拆计划公布时，他罕见发声表示不 赞同。在与记者的非公开电话中，他称自己 "感到失望"，并不排除减持甚至清仓卡夫亨氏股份。"当初 把它们合并显然算不上高明之举，但我认为分拆也解决不了问题。" 就在三周前，阿贝尔还向美国 SEC 提交文件，计划最多减持截至 9 月 30 日所持 3.2 ...

Core Insights - The wealth of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has decreased significantly, dropping him out of the top ten billionaires globally, with a current net worth of $151 billion, down over $3 billion year-to-date [2][3] - The tech sector has seen a general decline in billionaire wealth, with notable decreases for Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, and Oracle's Larry Ellison, while Elon Musk's wealth has increased due to the merger of SpaceX and xAI [2][4] - Walmart's founders have seen substantial increases in their wealth, with each of the Walton siblings gaining over $20 billion, reflecting a positive trend in the retail sector [2][3] Wealth Changes - Elon Musk leads the billionaire rankings with a net worth of $677 billion, having gained $57.2 billion year-to-date [3] - Larry Page and Sergey Brin have experienced declines of $5.54 billion and $5.08 billion respectively, while Larry Ellison's wealth has decreased by $34.88 billion [3] - Walmart's Jim Walton, Rob Walton, and Alice Walton have increased their wealth to $158 billion, $154 billion, and $154 billion respectively, with year-to-date increases of $21.38 billion, $20.7 billion, and $21 billion [3] Market Trends - Nvidia's stock has been on a downward trend since late October, with a current price of $182.81 per share, down over 10% from $202.49 [4] - Concerns about the returns on capital expenditures in the tech sector are rising, impacting stock prices for major companies like Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon [4] - In contrast, Walmart's stock is on the rise, currently priced at $133.89 per share, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 20% [4] Walmart's Digital Transformation - Walmart is accelerating its digital transformation, including partnerships in China and the launch of new store formats [5] - The company is focusing on a multi-channel structure that integrates community stores, large stores, and online platforms to meet diverse customer needs [5] - Walmart's Q3 2026 financial results show revenue of $179.5 billion, a 5.8% increase year-over-year, with e-commerce sales growing by 27% [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The company is focusing on strategic acquisitions and long-term growth, highlighted by the acquisition of Celestial AI for approximately $3.25 billion to enhance AI data center optical interconnect technology, aiming for $1 billion in annual revenue by FY2029 [1] - The acquisition of XCONN for $540 million aims to improve connectivity capabilities, while multiple 2nm AI chip design projects are underway, with mass production expected by FY2028 [1] - Amazon's capital expenditure plan for 2026 is set to increase to $200 billion, positioning the company as a potential beneficiary due to its role as a supplier of Trainium processors, which positively impacted stock prices [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Recent institutional views are mixed, but there is a general focus on the fulfillment of growth guidance, with Deutsche Bank maintaining a "Buy" rating but lowering the target price from $125 to $120 [2] - UBS noted that the company stands to benefit from increased capital expenditures by Amazon and Google, with strong demand for Amazon's Trainium3 chips favoring its custom ASIC business [2] - Benchmark reiterated a "Hold" rating, emphasizing the company's guidance for over 25% year-on-year growth in data center revenue for the next fiscal year, while cautioning about the competitive landscape for AI chips and customer order developments [2] Group 3: Stock Performance - The stock has shown significant volatility over the past week, reflecting mixed market sentiment, with a closing price of $78.61 on February 13, 2026, and a daily increase of 0.49% [3] - During the period from February 9 to 13, the stock experienced a price fluctuation of 7.90%, reaching a high of $83.78 on February 11 and a low of $77.44 on February 12, with a cumulative decline of 2.08% over five days [3] - Increased trading activity and price volatility indicate investor divergence regarding competitive and growth outlooks [3] Group 4: Financial Report Analysis - The Q3 FY2026 financial report, released in December 2025, showed revenue of $2.08 billion, a 37% year-on-year increase, with data center business revenue of $1.52 billion, accounting for 73% of total revenue [4] - Management's optimistic guidance includes a total revenue target of approximately $10 billion for FY2027, with data center revenue growth expected to exceed 25%, and a revenue guidance of $2.2 billion (±5%) for Q4 FY2026 [4] - Although the financial data is not the most current, the optimistic guidance remains a focal point for market attention [4]

美国或将再次修改非农数据，特朗普的经济顾问给出了暗示。然而，美国的修改数据举动，影响的不仅 是纸面上的东西，甚至整个世界的"经济"价值都可能被改变，为什么这么说？ 当地时间2月11日，美国劳工统计局（BLS）还未发布1月的非农数据报告，就有市场预测认为，BLS会 再次下修非农数据，而且幅度会是"百万级"。而且，特朗普的首席经济顾问、白宫国家经济委员会主任 凯文·哈塞特已经表示，鉴于美国人口增长速度在下滑，那么美国未来的就业人数也会减少，这显然是 暗示将会下修非农数据。然而，美国在2024年和2025年都进行了这个举动，若这次再这么做，将是连续 三年下修。事实上，美国在过去25年内，进行了多达300次的就业数据修正。恐怕，美国经济的"皇帝新 装"，已经维持不下去了。 而对美国可能再次下修非农数据的举动，有分析指出，有三方面的情况值得重点关注。 第一，美国多次下修非农数据，不仅是"失信于全球"，还可能造成整个世界对"经济"理解的重铸。 实际上，经济数据存在偏差是无法避免的情况，无论采取多么精确的统计方法，都不能确保数据的真实 性、及时性和准确性。然而，美国政府的修正幅度如此之大，使得公布的数据已经脱离了"可控误差 ...

Core Insights - The wealth of tech billionaires has generally decreased, with notable declines among major figures like Jensen Huang, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, and Larry Ellison, while Elon Musk's wealth has increased due to the merger of SpaceX and xAI [1][2] Group 1: Wealth Changes Among Billionaires - Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, has fallen out of the top ten billionaires, with a current net worth of $151 billion, down over $3 billion year-to-date [1][2] - Larry Ellison, chairman of Oracle, has experienced the largest decline in wealth this year, down $34.8 billion to $213 billion [1][2] - The founders of Google, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, have both seen their fortunes drop by over $5 billion this year [1][2] Group 2: Stock Performance of Tech Companies - Nvidia's stock has entered a downward trend since late October, with a current price of $182.81 per share, down over 10% from $202.49 per share [4] - Other tech companies like Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon have also seen stock price declines despite increased capital expenditures [4] - Concerns are growing that the returns on artificial intelligence investments may not keep pace with the announced capital expenditures, potentially leading to market saturation [4] Group 3: Walmart's Performance and Strategy - Walmart's stock is on an upward trend, with a current price of $133.89 per share, up over 20% year-to-date, and a market capitalization of $1.07 trillion [4] - Walmart is accelerating its digital transformation, including partnerships in China and the launch of new store formats [4][5] - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, Walmart reported revenues of $179.5 billion, a 5.8% year-over-year increase, with e-commerce sales growing by 27% [5]

Group 1 - Meituan expects a net loss of approximately RMB 233 billion to RMB 243 billion for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, a stark contrast to a net profit of RMB 358.08 billion in 2024, indicating a significant reversal of nearly RMB 600 billion [9][11][24] - The primary reason for this drastic change is the expected operating loss of RMB 68 billion to RMB 70 billion in its core local business segment, which had an operating profit of approximately RMB 524.15 billion in 2024 [11][26][28] - The company attributes this loss to intensified competition in the industry and a strategic increase in ecosystem investments, which include enhanced marketing efforts, rider incentives, and resource allocation to improve operational efficiency [13][26][28] Group 2 - Meituan's stock price has dropped 22.5% since its peak in January, closing at HKD 82.5 on February 13, with its market capitalization briefly falling below HKD 500 billion [7][22] - The company anticipates that the trend of losses will continue into the first quarter of 2026, although it maintains that its operational status remains stable and it has sufficient cash to support business development [13][28] - The Hang Seng Technology Index, which includes Meituan and other internet companies, has seen a decline of 6.26% since February, reflecting broader market challenges [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock price has experienced a nine-day decline, entering a technical bear market, making it the second member of the "Mag7" (the seven largest U.S. tech companies) to do so, following Microsoft. The total market value of the Mag7 has decreased by approximately $1.51 trillion this year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Amazon's stock closed at $198.79 per share, down over 23% from its recent peak [2]. - Microsoft was the first Mag7 member to enter a bear market, with its stock down 27.8% from its recent high as of Friday's close [2]. - Meta is on the verge of entering a bear market, having declined 19.6% from its peak, just 0.4% away from the 20% threshold [2]. Group 2: Institutional Selling - UBS and Goldman Sachs have significantly reduced their holdings in several major U.S. tech stocks, as indicated in their recent 13F filings with the SEC [2][4]. - UBS reduced its stake in Nvidia by 10.57 million shares, representing an 11.47% decrease, and also reduced its positions in Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Google by varying percentages [4]. - Goldman Sachs also reduced its holdings in Microsoft, Tesla, Broadcom, and Meta, with reductions ranging from 5.86% to 13.51% [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Influences - The decline in the Mag7 stocks coincides with similar trends in the A-share market, indicating a potential shift in global investment styles [5]. - Factors contributing to this trend include investor skepticism regarding the return on investment from AI expenditures by tech giants and a potential negative shift in free cash flow due to increased capital expenditures [5]. - The U.S. short-term liquidity market is showing signs of strain, with overnight reverse repos dropping to a low of $3.77 billion, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [5].