截至2026年2月5日15:00，中证石化产业指数(H11057)下跌1.75%。成分股方面涨跌互现，恒逸石化领涨 1.27%，三棵树上涨1.25%，广东宏大上涨1.09%；联泓新科领跌6.32%，藏格矿业下跌4.85%，圣泉集团 下跌3.39%。石化ETF(159731)下跌1.78%，最新报价0.99元。 流动性方面，石化ETF盘中换手8.27%，成交1.39亿元。拉长时间看，截至2月4日，石化ETF近1周日均 成交3.14亿元。 石化ETF(159731)，场外联接(华夏中证石化产业ETF发起式联接A：017855；华夏中证石化产业ETF发 起式联接C：017856)。 从收益能力看，截至2026年2月4日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86%，最长连涨月数为9 个月，最长连涨涨幅为60.75%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.59%。截至2026年1月30日，石化ETF近1年夏 普比率为2.52。 光大证券分析指出，随着行政监管与行业自律协同推进，炼化及化纤领域低价恶性竞争有望被有效遏 制；炼化扩能已近尾声，叠加"油转化""油转特"加速，行业供需结构趋于改善；涤纶长丝新增产能有 限，结构性优化提速 ...

Macro Analysis - The GDP weighted target for 2026 is estimated at 5.03%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from the previous year, with fixed asset investment and retail sales growth rates also adjusted downwards by 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [1] - The national GDP growth target for 2026 may be set between 4.5% and 5%, indicating a shift towards high-quality development driven by innovation [1] Banking Sector - In January, the banking sector is expected to see new RMB loans of around 5 trillion, slightly lower than the same period last year, with a loan growth rate around 6.2% and social financing growth at approximately 8.3% [2] - The M2 growth rate is expected to decline slightly, while M1 growth is anticipated to rise [2] Real Estate Sector - In January, the top 10 real estate companies reported a year-on-year sales decline of 12%, while the top 100 companies saw a 25% drop, indicating a divergence in performance among different tiers of companies [3] - Companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Jinmao showed positive sales growth, with increases of 20.5% and 13.3% respectively [3] - Government measures to stabilize real estate expectations and promote sales are expected to improve market sentiment [3] Company Research: Hengli Petrochemical - The controlling shareholder has increased their stake in Hengli Petrochemical, reflecting confidence in the company's future [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 7.172 billion, 9.070 billion, and 10.358 billion respectively, representing decreases of 14%, 7%, and 3% [4] - The company maintains a high growth potential with ongoing new capacity production and a commitment to high dividend policies [4] Automotive Sector - Xpeng Motors is facing pressure on sales in January, with a downward revision of profit forecasts due to intensified competition and policy risks [6] - Expected net losses for 2025 are around 890 million, with a projected net profit of 30 million and 540 million for 2026 and 2027 respectively [6] - The company is optimistic about performance improvement and long-term prospects in AI applications [6] Internet Media Sector - Baidu's advertising business is stabilizing, supported by AI cloud services, which enhance traditional advertising monetization [7] - The forecast for non-GAAP net profits for 2025-2027 has been slightly revised down to 17.9 billion, 19.8 billion, and 22.4 billion respectively [7] - The acceleration of Baidu's AI ecosystem restructuring is expected to enhance its valuation [7] Home Appliances Sector - Hisense Visual Technology is focusing on high-end markets and global expansion, with expected net profits of 2.44 billion, 2.67 billion, and 2.96 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 8.8%, 9.1%, and 10.9% respectively [8] - The company is rated as a "buy" with a target price of 29.87 yuan [8] Food and Beverage Sector - Chongqing Beer reported a revenue of 14.72 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a net profit of 1.23 billion, up 10.4% [9] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.231 billion, 1.276 billion, and 1.320 billion, reflecting increases of 3%, 1%, and 1% respectively [9] High-end Manufacturing Sector - Riheng Technology is a leader in industrial X-ray detection equipment, benefiting from high demand in semiconductor and electronic manufacturing [10] - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 180 million, 330 million, and 460 million, with corresponding P/E ratios of 65, 37, and 26 [10]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is currently attracting significant capital attention, with the chemical ETF (159870) seeing net subscriptions exceeding 400 million units, driven by multiple positive factors in the industry [1] - Key supporting factors for the current cycle's price increase include: profitability reaching a historical low after four years of adjustment, limited further downside potential; policy-driven initiatives such as "anti-involution" and "dual carbon" policies controlling new capacity and eliminating outdated production; and a global supply reshaping with high-cost production in Europe and Japan accelerating shutdowns, leading to a 4%-7% exit of core product capacities like ethylene and propylene by 2026-2027 [1] - The chemical sector's P/B valuation is at historically low levels, with capital allocation ratios rebounding from their lows [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Industry, and Cangge Mining, collectively accounting for 44.82% of the index [2] - The chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which is composed of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [2] - As of February 5, 2026, the chemical ETF is priced at 0.87 yuan, with notable stock movements including Sankeshu leading with a 1.05% increase [2]

上市公司：锌业股份（000751），辽宁能源（600758），华锦股份（000059），沈阳化工（000698）， 恒力石化（600346），水发燃气（603318），沈阳机床（000410），冰山冷热（000530），科德数控 （688305），大连重工（002204），远大智能（002689），大连热电（600719），国电电力（600795） 2025年1-12月，辽宁省工业企业数（以下数据涉及的工业企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从2011年起， 规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万元）为10192 个，和上年同期相比，增加了577个，同比增长6%，占全国的比重为1.94%。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国工业云行业市场深度评估及投资机会预测报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Group 1 - BASF has announced a price increase of $200 per ton for its Lupranate TDI products in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding mainland China) and MEAIF region, effective February 4, 2026, due to rising costs in sustainable business development, transportation, energy, and regulation [1] - The price increase represents an approximate 11% rise from the pre-increase market price of around $1750 per ton for TDI products in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - The chemical industry ETF (159870) has seen mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Guangdong Hongda leading with a 1.49% increase, while Lianhong Xinke experienced a decline [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, Tianci Materials, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, Juhua Co., Baofeng Energy, Yuntianhua, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 44.82% of the index [2]

化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐。数据显示，该基金连续10日获 资金净流入，合计超13亿；最新基金规模攀升至16.31亿元。 截至9：54，中证石化产业指数（H11057）跌0.74%，权重股中，万华化学跌0.33%，中国石油跌 1.04%，中国石化跌1.08%，盐湖股份跌2.11%，中国海油跌0.59%，藏格矿业跌2.8%，巨化股份涨 0.13%，恒力石化跌1.01%，华鲁恒升跌1.34%，宝丰能源涨0.04%。截至2月4日，该指数近一年上涨 45.87%。 消息面上，欧洲化学工业理事会（Cefic）发布的报告显示，在2022年至2025年的短短四年间，欧洲化 工行业关闭产能激增6倍，累计关闭产能达3700万吨，约占欧洲化工总产能的9%。 与此同时，根据海关总署数据，2025年我国化学原料及化学制品制造业出口数量指数月均值约为 113.0，意味着2025年我国化学原料及化学制品月均出口量同比增长约13.0%。 光大证券指出，化工行业呈现"东升西落"，我国化工企业全球竞争力持续增强，助力国内企业消化新增 产能，也更为显著地提高了中国化工品在全球市场的份额和品牌影响力。 相 ...

西部证券认为，2026年全球油价有望大涨，带动化工品涨价重估，大炼化板块将复制有色板块的上涨路 径，且由于其位置更低、启动更晚，未来的上涨空间或将更大。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接C(020105.OF) 相关产品： 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 截至10：05，中证石化产业指数（H11057）跌1.2%，权重股中，万华化学跌0.8%，中国石油跌1.52%， 中国石化跌1.38%，盐湖股份跌2.98%，中国海油跌1.03%，藏格矿业跌3.22%，恒力石化跌1.61%，华鲁 恒升跌1.48%，宝丰能源跌0.13%。截至2月4日，该指数近一年上涨45.87%。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）覆盖"三桶油"，一键打包石化产业龙头，管理费率+托管费率合计仅 0.2%/年，助力投资者低成本布局传统能源产业机会。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐。数据显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is experiencing mixed performance, with the China Petrochemical Industry Index showing a slight decline, while certain stocks within the sector are performing well, indicating potential investment opportunities and market volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 5, 2026, the China Petrochemical Industry Index (H11057) decreased by 0.39%, with stocks like Sankeshu, Guangdong Hongda, and Huafeng Chemical leading the gains, while Lianhong Xinke, Cangge Mining, and Salt Lake Co. led the declines [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) fell by 0.50%, with the latest price at 1 yuan, and had an average daily trading volume of 314 million yuan over the past week [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows - The Petrochemical ETF attracted a total of 611 million yuan over the last five trading days, averaging a net inflow of 122 million yuan per day [2]. - Over the past month, the ETF's scale increased by 1.46 billion yuan, indicating significant growth [2]. Group 3: Price Trends - In January 2026, international oil prices saw substantial increases, with WTI crude oil rising by 13.57% to $65.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 16.17% to $70.69 per barrel [2]. - Among 319 tracked products, 207 experienced price increases, with notable rises in liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene, which saw increases of 71.43%, 44.10%, 32.86%, 25.58%, and 25.31% respectively [2]. - Conversely, 69 products declined in price, with the largest decreases in hydrogen peroxide, nitric acid, caustic soda, kerosene, and argon, which fell by 18.40%, 16.71%, 13.94%, 8.73%, and 8.33% respectively [2]. - Overall, the prices of basic chemical products are beginning to show signs of recovery [2]. Group 4: ETF Performance Metrics - As of February 4, 2026, the Petrochemical ETF's net value has increased by 69.98% over the past two years [2]. - The ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past year, as of January 30, 2026, is 2.52, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [2]. - The tracking error of the ETF over the past two months is 0.006%, the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [2]. Group 5: Index Composition - The Petrochemical ETF closely tracks the China Petrochemical Industry Index, with the top ten weighted stocks as of January 30, 2026, including Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, Salt Lake Co., Sinopec, CNOOC, Cangge Mining, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, Juhua Co., and Baofeng Energy, collectively accounting for 55.71% of the index [3].

2026 年 2 月 4 日 公司研究 实控人首次增持公司股份，彰显未来发展信心 ——恒力石化（600346.SH）公告点评 要点 事件：公司发布《关于实际控制人首次增持暨增持公司股份的进展公告》， 2026 年 2 月 3 日，公司实际控制人之一陈建华先生以自有资金，采取集中竞价交易 方式首次增持公司股份 13,447,369 股，占公司总股本的 0.19%，累计增持金额 为 32,997.02 万元（不含佣金、过户费等交易费用）。 点评： 实控人首次增持公司股份，彰显未来发展信心。公司 2025 年 4 月 9 日发布《关 于实际控制人增持公司股份计划的公告》，实际控制人之一陈建华先生计划自 2025 年 4 月 9 日起 12 个月内，以自有资金或自筹资金通过上海证券交易所交 易系统以集中竞价交易方式增持本公司股份，增持金额不低于人民币 5 亿元，不 超过人民币 10 亿元。2026 年 2 月 3 日，公司实际控制人首次增持公司股份。 公司作为国内领先的民营炼化一体化企业，其实际控制人之一陈建华先生此次增 持未导致公司控制权结构发生变化，公司治理结构保持稳定。自 2025 年 7 月中 下旬以来，随着 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS predicts that the Chinese chemical industry is likely to enter a new upward cycle from 2026 to 2028, driven by multiple positive factors, leading to profit recovery and valuation reassessment [1] Group 1: Core Drivers of Upward Cycle - Profit bottoming out with limited downside: After four years of adjustment, the chemical industry is nearing historical lows, with reduced capacity expansion pressure and marginal demand improvement providing support [2] - Deepening anti-involution policies reshaping industry ecology: China's "anti-involution" and "dual carbon" policies are key drivers for industry transformation, tightening new project approvals and optimizing standards for eliminating outdated capacity [3] - Accelerated exit of overseas capacity optimizing global supply structure: High-cost overseas chemical production is exiting the market, particularly in Europe and Japan, which will significantly improve global supply-demand balance [4][5] - Valuation and configuration at dual bottoms, highlighting cost-effectiveness: The current P/BV valuation of 1.5x for the Chinese chemical industry is at the 43rd percentile over the past 20 years, indicating strong investment potential [6][7] Group 2: Opportunities in Sub-sectors - Traditional chemicals: Price elasticity opportunities under tight supply-demand balance [8] - New materials: Rapid development in emerging industries like semiconductors and commercial aerospace opens up a trillion-dollar market for chemical new materials [9] - Key enterprise layouts: Companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Wanhua Chemical are positioned to benefit from price recovery in their respective sectors [10][11] - Downstream rapid development: Companies such as Zhongcai Technology and Tianqi Materials are set to benefit from the growth in satellite ceramic materials and battery materials [12] Group 3: Target Price Adjustments - UBS has raised target prices for several core stocks, reflecting strong confidence in the industry's upward cycle, with Asian Potash's target price increased from 54.10 to 78.30, Hengli Petrochemical from 25.60 to 35, and Wanhua Chemical from 94 to 120 [12]