Core Viewpoint - Samsung is initiating a price war in the 2nm semiconductor market to challenge TSMC's dominance, but industry experts believe that TSMC's advantages in technology, yield, and stable supply make it very difficult for Samsung to disrupt TSMC's leading position in the short term [1] Group 1: TSMC's Advantages - TSMC's initial yield for 2nm technology is reported to be between 64% and 66%, with SRAM yield exceeding 90%, indicating a promising outlook for mass production [1] - TSMC has the most production facilities for its 2nm process, spanning four major wafer fabs in Hsinchu, Baoshan, and Kaohsiung, with a monthly capacity of approximately 40,000 wafers by the end of this year [1] - TSMC's business model focuses solely on foundry services, avoiding competition with its customers, which has helped build strong trust with them [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Capacity Expansion - TSMC anticipates that demand for its 2nm technology will surpass that of previous generations based on current customer adoption willingness [1] - To meet the growing demand for next-generation high-performance chips, TSMC is continuously expanding its 2nm capacity, aiming for a monthly capacity of 100,000 wafers by 2026 [1]

半导体迈入2纳米制程世代之际，业界传出，三星近期喊出2纳米报价每片2万美元（约新台币60万 元），比台积电（2330）牌价3万美元（约新台币90万元）便宜33%，相当于打六七折抢市，争取英伟 达、高通、特斯拉等大厂下单，要挖台积电墙脚。 特斯拉已于7月宣布，与三星签署价值22.8兆韩元（约165亿美元、新台币5,000亿元）的长期芯片供应合 约，将透过三星第二代2纳米制程，生产特斯拉AI6芯片，用于全自动驾驶（FSD）系统与资料中心，这 笔订单被外界视为三星试图借助新制程，在高速运算领域PK台积电的关键一役。 另外，三星也积极布建美国2纳米产能，预计明年底月产能将达1.6万至1.7万片，争取更多美系客户下 单。 面对三星来势汹汹，台积电2纳米将如期在2025下半年进入量产。台积电先前透露，2纳米量产曲线与3 纳米相似，在持续强化的策略下，台积电也推出2纳米家族延伸的N2P制程技术，具备更佳的效能及功 耗优势，为智慧手机高速运算应用提供支持，预计2026下半年量产。 台积电2纳米将如期于下半年量产，手握苹果、超微、联发科、高通等大客户订单，涵盖智慧手机芯片 和电脑中央处理器（CPU）等高速运算领域。三星目前2纳 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The AI server market continues to grow, driven by demand for AI computing power and hardware upgrades [7]. - System assembly is emerging as a new driver for performance enhancement in AI servers, as traditional manufacturing processes may not keep pace with the rapid development of AI computing needs [8]. - Advanced packaging techniques are becoming crucial for improving chip performance, especially as traditional process upgrades slow down [8]. - Industry leaders are expected to benefit from the rising technical barriers and improved competitive environment in the system assembly sector [8]. Summary by Sections AI Server Market Dynamics - The demand for AI computing facilities is driving growth in the AI server market, with significant upgrades in hardware [7]. - The number of GPUs in AI servers is increasing dramatically, with projections for future upgrades to 144 GPUs per cabinet by 2027 [8]. Performance Enhancement Drivers - The report highlights that system assembly is becoming a key factor in enhancing AI server performance, as the number of GPUs per server increases [8]. - The complexity of system assembly is rising, which may limit production capacity for some companies [8]. Recommended Investment Targets - The report recommends several companies related to AI server system assembly, including: - Industrial Fulian (601138, Buy) - Haiguang Information (688041, Buy) - Lenovo Group (00992, Buy) - Huaqin Technology (603296, Buy) [8]. - Industrial Fulian is noted for significant improvements in product testing and production efficiency, with strong order growth expected [8]. - Haiguang Information is positioned to leverage vertical integration capabilities following its merger with Zhongke Shuguang [8]. - Lenovo Group is anticipated to launch various servers based on Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra starting in the second half of 2025 [8]. - Huaqin Technology is recognized as a core ODM supplier for AI servers, benefiting from increased capital expenditures by cloud service providers [8].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction index decreased by 1.67%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 0.74%, indicating that the construction sector underperformed the market by 2.42 percentage points. The cleanroom sector is expected to benefit from the rising production expectations in the U.S. and the upcoming third-quarter reports, which may exceed expectations [1][2][3] - The cleanroom sector is experiencing renewed benefits due to U.S. policies that may require semiconductor companies to match domestic production with imports, potentially benefiting companies like TSMC and Micron Technology [2][13] - The construction sector in Sichuan is seeing a significant increase in new bids, with a total of 218 new projects worth approximately 72.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.20% [3][23] - The cement shipment rate and asphalt operating rate have rebounded, indicating a positive outlook for the conversion of physical workloads in construction projects [4][24] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The construction index fell by 1.67% from September 22 to September 26, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.74%, with only the architectural design sub-sector recording a positive return of 1.02% [5][32] Investment Recommendations - Focus on infrastructure investment opportunities in regions with high growth potential, such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Tibet, as well as sectors like hydropower, coal chemical, and nuclear power [1][36] - Emphasize the cleanroom sector, particularly companies like Baicheng Co., Shenghui Integration, and Yaxiang Integration, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing semiconductor industry developments [17][38] Key Projects and Orders - Sichuan Road and Bridge has seen a significant increase in new bids, with a focus on major provincial projects and government special bond projects to accelerate construction progress [3][23] - The cleanroom sector's order volume remains robust, with Baicheng Co. and Shenghui Integration reporting significant year-on-year growth in new orders [18][19] Sector Performance - The cleanroom sector is expected to maintain a high level of activity, driven by domestic demand for new semiconductor production facilities and the ongoing transition of the semiconductor industry [17][21] - The construction sector is experiencing a structural recovery, with a focus on major transportation infrastructure projects and regional opportunities in high-demand areas [36][39]

特朗普政府，又想出了新的征税方式？ 针对上述消息，美国商务部没有立即回应。不过，当被问及相关细节时，白宫发言人库什·德赛回应 称，美国不能依赖外国进口来获取对国家和经济安全至关重要的半导体产品。"特朗普政府正采取细 致、多方面的策略，通过关税、减税、放松监管和充足能源供应，推动关键制造业回流美国本土。"库 什·德赛说道。 报道指出，若上述计划得以实施，将表明特朗普政府正寻求对从牙刷到笔记本电脑等各类消费品施加影 响。在努力扩大美国制造业规模的同时，这一举措可能会推高通货膨胀。 保守派智库、美国企业研究所的经济学家迈克尔·斯特莱恩表示："目前美国正面临通胀问题，通胀率明 显高于美联储目标(通胀率2%)且仍在上升，而该计划可能会在此时推高消费品价格。" 他补充道，由于生产这些商品所需的关键投入品被征收新关税，即便美国本土生产的产品也可能变得更 加昂贵。 据环球网援引路透社报道，消息人士透露，为推动企业将制造业转移至美国，特朗普政府正在考虑根据 每台外国电子设备中的芯片数量征收关税。根据该计划，美国商务部将对产品芯片价值的估算部分按一 定比例征收关税。 特朗普8月份曾表示，美国将对进口半导体征收约100%的关税，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is considering imposing tariffs based on the number of chips in foreign electronic devices to encourage domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on imports [3][4][5]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The proposed tariff plan would involve estimating the value of chips in products and applying tariffs accordingly [4][5]. - If implemented, this plan could affect a wide range of consumer goods, potentially increasing inflation as production costs rise due to new tariffs on essential inputs [5][6]. - The administration has previously indicated a willingness to impose significant tariffs on semiconductor imports, with rates potentially reaching 100% for certain products [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The plan aims to boost U.S. manufacturing while also posing risks of higher consumer prices, as the inflation rate is already above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5][6]. - The complexity of the proposed tariff system could create challenges for major tech companies like Apple and Dell, which rely on global supply chains [7][8]. - The administration's strategy includes a mix of tariffs, tax cuts, and regulatory relief to promote domestic production [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - Achieving a balance between domestic production and imports is expected to be difficult, as overseas products are often cheaper and supply chain adjustments take time [7][8]. - The actual implementation of tariffs based on chip counts raises questions about how these tariffs will be calculated and enforced [7][8]. - There are concerns that the proposed tariffs could complicate the already intricate U.S. tariff system, making compliance more challenging for companies [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is considering imposing tariffs based on the number of chips in foreign electronic devices to encourage domestic manufacturing [1][2][5] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The proposed plan involves estimating the value of chips in products and imposing tariffs accordingly [1][2] - Trump previously indicated a potential 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, with exemptions for companies manufacturing in the U.S. [1][5] - The administration is also contemplating a requirement for chip companies to maintain a 1:1 ratio of domestically produced chips to imported chips, with penalties for non-compliance [1][5][6] Group 2: Economic Implications - The implementation of these tariffs could lead to increased consumer prices, exacerbating existing inflation issues in the U.S. [2][5] - Economic experts warn that the tariffs may complicate the already intricate U.S. tariff system and could challenge major tech companies that rely on global supply chains [6] Group 3: Broader Tariff Measures - In addition to semiconductor tariffs, Trump announced new tariffs on various imported goods, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and a 30% tariff on furniture [3] - The administration's strategy includes a mix of tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation, and energy supply enhancements to boost domestic manufacturing [2][5]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 午后跳水，三大指数震荡走跌，截至收盘， 沪指跌0.65% ， 深成指跌1.76% ， 创业板指跌2.60% 。 沪深两市成交额2.15万亿 ， 较上一个交易日缩量2242亿， 全市场超3400只个股下跌 。 板块方面 ， 风电 、 保险等板块涨幅居前 ， 游戏 、 算力硬件 、 光刻机等板块跌幅居前。 港股也走低，恒生指数跌超1%，恒生科技指数跌近3%，小米集团、金山云跌超7%等。 特朗普，突发重磅！ AI、半导体大跌 以AI为主线的科技股今天集体走弱，工业富联大跌5%，寒武纪跌超3%，立讯精密大跌超6%，瑞芯微、芯原股份、 领益智造、景旺电子等 跌超6 %。 9月26日午后，突然传来重磅消息。据路透社报道，消息人士称，特朗普政府正在考虑一项新的半导体政策，要求芯片公司在国内制造的半导体数 量与其客户从海外生产商进口的半导体数量相同，如果公司未能长期保持这种1:1的比例，将面临大约100%的关税。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克与半导体行业高管讨论了这一概念，理由是美国科技公司严重依赖海外芯片生产，容易受到多重因素影响，对经济 安全形成威胁。 知情人士表示，根据新制度，如果一家 ...

【导读】美股三大股指录得三连跌；美联储官员密集发表讲话， 10 月降息 25 个基点概率下 降 个股方面，甲骨文跌超 5% ，特斯拉跌逾 4% ，美光科技跌超 3% 。 英特尔延续前一日上涨态势，截至收盘，股价报 33.99 美元 / 股，大涨 8.87% 。 消息面上，在前一交易日市场曝出英特尔可能正寻求苹果对其进行投资之后，英特尔股价单 日大涨 6.4% 。彼时消息称，该谈判仍处于早期阶段，不一定会达成协议。此外，英特尔还 可能与其他公司就投资和合作关系进行了接触。 中国基金报记者 张舟 美东时间 9 月 25 日周四，美国三大股指集体收跌，录得三连跌。多数科技股下跌，英特尔 逆市上涨。 昨夜今晨，多位美联储官员就降息及经济话题发表了讲话。美联储最新降息 25 个基点概率降 至 85.5% 。 三大股指录得三连跌 英特尔股价逆市涨近 9% 美国三大股指小幅收跌。截至收盘，道指跌 0.38% ，报 45947.32 点；标普 500 指数跌 0.5% ，报 6604.72 点；纳指跌 0.5% ，报 22384.7 点。 大型科技股多数下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌 0.34% 。 据报道，英特尔已接触的 ...

来源：中国基金报 【导读】美股三大股指录得三连跌；美联储官员密集发表讲话，10月降息25个基点概率下降 中国基金报记者张舟 有知情人士称，这些努力在特朗普总统上个月对英特尔表示兴趣之前就已经开始，但自从美国政府持有 英特尔10%的股份后，这些努力进入加速阶段。 中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.42%。 美东时间9月25日周四，美国三大股指集体收跌，录得三连跌。多数科技股下跌，英特尔逆市上涨。 昨夜今晨，多位美联储官员就降息及经济话题发表了讲话。美联储最新降息25个基点概率降至85.5%。 三大股指录得三连跌 英特尔股价逆市涨近9% 美国三大股指小幅收跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.38%，报45947.32点；标普500指数跌0.5%，报6604.72 点；纳指跌0.5%，报22384.7点。 大型科技股多数下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.34%。 个股方面，甲骨文跌超5%，特斯拉跌逾4%，美光科技跌超3%。 英特尔延续前一日上涨态势，截至收盘，股价报33.99美元/股，大涨8.87%。 消息面上，在前一交易日市场曝出英特尔可能正寻求苹果对其进行投资之后，英特尔股价单日大涨 6.4%。彼时消息称，该谈 ...