台积电（2330）受惠英伟达、AMD、博通等大客户订单涌入，法人看好今年AI相关营收将倍数成长， 蓄势挑战新台币兆元大关之余，明年持续看增，连续三年实现业绩突破，助力台积电2026年美元营收持 续飞越千亿美元关卡，订单能见度直达2028年。 台积电一贯不评论法人预估数字与单一客户。法人指出，台积电在2024年AI需求起飞期，当年度AI相 关营收首度突破百亿美元，立下营运新里程碑。 台积电提到，与客户及客户的客户密切合作，并规划产能。台积电目前拥有逾500个不同的客户，随着 制程技术复杂性增加，公司与客户接触启动专案的前置时间至少要提早二至三年。 台积电定义，AI相关需求包含AI加速器在资料中心执行AI训练和推论功能的AI GPUs、AI ASICs和首度 纳入高频宽记忆体（HBM）控制器等，看好AI加速器营收贡献2025年会再成长一倍。 技术应用上，台积电最先进的2nm已如期量产，公司看好随着智慧手机、高速运算和AI应用推动下， 2026年2nm业务将快速成长。 在上述基础上，法人分析，台积电客户群AI新创应用持续遍地开花，让台积电订单满手，估计2026年 AI相关营收可望突破400亿美元，站稳新台币兆元大关 ...

Core Points - The A-share market experienced a significant drop due to two major negative factors impacting global markets, leading to heightened risk aversion among investors [1][18] - The decline in Nvidia's stock price, which fell by 3.58%, negatively affected technology stocks globally, including major semiconductor companies like TSMC and Samsung [3] - China's central bank released disappointing social financing data, raising concerns about the strength of the economy and the sustainability of current policies, which further fueled market anxiety [3] Group 1: AI and Semiconductor Sector - The AI computing sector, previously a key driver of the bull market, saw core stocks like Cambrian and Haiguang Information break below critical support levels, indicating a loss of buying confidence [5] - Reports from the Financial Times raised doubts about the actual energy consumption of data centers, further questioning the viability of AI-related investments [7] - OpenAI's CFO disclosed a decline in user engagement with ChatGPT, which diminished market confidence in the commercialization of AI technologies [8] Group 2: Storage and Energy Sector - The storage sector faced significant declines following a 62% year-over-year drop in net profit reported by Kioxia, leading to a sell-off in related stocks like SanDisk and Seagate [10] - Concerns about demand in the consumer electronics sector were exacerbated by comments from SMIC regarding cautious procurement from mobile terminal clients, indicating a potential slowdown in storage chip demand [12] - The energy storage sector's growth expectations were challenged by the potential reduction in capital expenditures for data centers, which could diminish the narrative around energy storage investments [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Performance - The overall market sentiment was further dampened by statistics indicating that 81% of retail investors incurred losses in the first ten months of 2025, with an average loss of 21,000 yuan, amplifying the urgency to exit positions [14] - Despite the negative trends, the solid-state battery sector saw a surge in stock prices due to positive developments in research and potential large-scale orders, showcasing a contrasting narrative within the market [14] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down by 0.97%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 2.82%, reflecting widespread declines across various sectors, particularly electronics and communications [16]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the critical role of semiconductor silicon wafers in modern technology, highlighting their importance in the global tech competition and national security [2][5][12] - It provides a comprehensive overview of the semiconductor industry, including market trends, technological barriers, and future opportunities driven by AI and self-sufficiency [8][12][61] Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is foundational to the information industry, characterized by high production complexity, rapid technological iteration, and significant investment risks [5][7] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow from $335.2 billion in 2015 to $627.6 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.22% [10] - China's semiconductor market is expected to expand from $98.2 billion in 2015 to $182.2 billion by 2024, driven by national policies and increasing domestic demand [11][12] Semiconductor Materials Overview - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to grow from $43.3 billion in 2015 to $67.5 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.06% [14] - China's semiconductor materials market is expected to grow from $6.8 billion in 2016 to $13.5 billion by 2024, outpacing global growth [19] Semiconductor Silicon Wafers - Semiconductor silicon wafers are essential for producing integrated circuits and sensors, with a complex manufacturing process involving multiple scientific disciplines [22][23] - The main types of silicon wafers include 2-inch, 3-inch, 4-inch, 6-inch, 8-inch, and 12-inch, with 12-inch wafers being the most prevalent due to cost advantages [26][28] - The demand for 12-inch wafers has increased significantly, with their market share rising from 1.69% in 2000 to 76.39% in 2024 [51] Market Dynamics - The global silicon wafer market is expected to experience a downturn in 2024, with a projected decline of 7.50% to $11.5 billion, but is anticipated to recover in 2025 due to demand from sectors like AI and electric vehicles [55][57] - The market for silicon epitaxial wafers is also growing, driven by applications in high-performance devices, with the market size increasing from $3.68 billion in 2015 to $6.06 billion in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of 7.39% [59] Challenges and Barriers - The semiconductor silicon wafer industry faces significant barriers, including customer onboarding challenges, technological complexities, talent shortages, and high capital investment requirements [41][45][46] - The industry is characterized by a high concentration of market share among a few key players, particularly in advanced wafer sizes [63] Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to enter a golden period of growth in the next decade, driven by advancements in 5G, AI, and other emerging technologies [12][67] - China's semiconductor industry is poised for rapid growth, with a projected market size increase from $0.5 billion in 2016 to $1.7 billion in 2023, indicating a robust development trajectory [62]

Core Insights - SMIC's Q3 2025 financial report shows record revenue and profit growth, indicating strong performance in the semiconductor industry [1][9] - Despite impressive results, SMIC still lags significantly behind TSMC in terms of revenue and profit, highlighting the competitive landscape [3] - The market share gap between SMIC and Samsung is narrowing, suggesting potential for SMIC to become the second-largest pure-play foundry [5][9] Financial Performance - SMIC's Q3 2025 revenue reached 17.162 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [1] - Net profit for the same period was 1.517 billion RMB, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 43.1% [1] - Gross margin improved to 25.5%, up 4.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] Competitive Landscape - TSMC's revenue for the same period was approximately 230 billion RMB, making it 13.4 times larger than SMIC, with net profit around 105 billion RMB, 69 times that of SMIC [3] - Samsung's market share gap with SMIC has decreased from 5 percentage points to around 2-3 percentage points, indicating a tightening competition [5] - Samsung faces challenges in advanced process technology, with TSMC dominating the 3nm market, which could allow SMIC to surpass Samsung in the near future [7][9] Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant shifts, with SMIC's growth reflecting broader changes in technology, market demand, and geopolitical factors [9] - The competition in the mature process segment is intensifying, particularly against Chinese manufacturers, which may further impact Samsung's market position [7][9] - Observers are encouraged to monitor these developments as they signal important trends in the global semiconductor landscape [9]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term performance of the A-share market is significantly lagging behind that of the US stock market, primarily due to the lack of high-growth technology companies in the A-share market compared to the US market [1][5][11]. Group 1: Market Performance Comparison - As of November 13, 2025, the A-share market showed strong short-term performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index up 20%, the Sci-Tech 50 up 40%, and the ChiNext Index up 50% [1]. - However, over a ten-year period from early 2016 to November 13, 2025, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices saw cumulative gains of 237% and 360%, respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index only gained about 15% [3][5]. Group 2: Company Composition and Growth - The top ten companies in the US stock market are predominantly high-tech firms, including Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, which have shown profit growth rates of 20% to 30%, with some even reaching 100% to 200% [5][7]. - In contrast, the A-share market's top ten companies are mainly traditional industries, with major banks and state-owned enterprises, which have experienced minimal profit growth, often in single digits [5][6]. Group 3: Global Market Reach - US tech companies earn revenue globally, contributing to their high market valuations, while A-share companies primarily generate revenue from the domestic market, limiting their growth potential [7][9]. - Nvidia's revenue grew from $26.9 billion in 2022 to $60.9 billion in 2024, showcasing a growth rate of 126%, while Agricultural Bank of China's profit growth was only 8.5% during the same period [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For the A-share market to improve its long-term wealth effect, it needs to develop more companies like Ningde Times and Industrial Fulian, which have global revenue streams and sustainable growth potential [11]. - The structural difference in market composition, with a high proportion of financial and energy sectors in A-shares compared to the tech sector in the US, poses a challenge for A-shares to achieve comparable long-term returns [11].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report highlights the increasing demand for 3nm capacity from major AI companies and Tesla, leading to a shortage and urgent capacity expansion by TSMC [2][3]. Group 1: Capacity Expansion - TSMC is expected to increase its 3nm capacity by an additional 20,000 wafers per month by the end of this year, raising the total to 110,000-120,000 wafers per month, exceeding previous expectations [2]. - By 2026, TSMC's 3nm capacity is projected to further expand to 140,000-150,000 wafers per month, primarily from the second phase of the Arizona plant and the conversion of existing 4/5nm lines in Taiwan [3]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for next year is anticipated to rise from the original plan of $43 billion to a range of $48-50 billion due to the increased capacity expansion [2][3]. - The capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to reach $48-50 billion, with a significant portion allocated to advanced process technologies [3]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The expansion of TSMC's 3nm capacity and increased capital expenditure is expected to have a positive catalytic effect on semiconductor equipment manufacturers [3]. - Tesla's future AI6 chip, utilizing 2nm technology, is projected to generate approximately $2 billion in foundry opportunities for TSMC annually [3].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is expected to report earnings on November 19, with performance in line with expectations and guidance stronger than anticipated, driven by Blackwell and RTXPro [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Estimated revenue for the January quarter is $64.5 billion, with guidance of $62.5 billion, compared to consensus of $61.7 billion, driven by continued demand for Blackwell [2] - For the October quarter, revenue is estimated at $55.9 billion, exceeding consensus of $55 billion, based on the sales of 1.4 million Blackwell units and a small contribution from Hopper [2] Group 2: Business Growth Potential - Nvidia's Networking business is projected to grow over 90% year-on-year in FY27, supported by aggressive plans for Spectrum-X and NVLinkFabric [3] - The company has set ambitious deployment plans for its CY26 Ethernet switches, with Spectrum-X ARR reaching $10 billion [3] Group 3: Product Development and Client Base - The company anticipates strong demand from clients such as P, Neocloud, and startups, despite potential competition from Google and AWS [2] - Progress on Rubin and VR200NVL144 is on track, with expected production capacity of 377,000 and 630,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in the U.S. is experiencing a significant rally, driven by optimistic market sentiment regarding AI and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts due to weak employment data [2][3]. Semiconductor Market Performance - On November 12, U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the semiconductor sector leading the gains; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose nearly 2%, and AMD surged nearly 9% at one point [2]. - Major semiconductor companies such as AMD, GlobalFoundries, Broadcom, and Micron all saw substantial increases in their stock prices, with AMD rising over 7% and GlobalFoundries over 5% [3]. Economic and Policy Factors - Analysts suggest that the potential reopening of the U.S. government and the resumption of economic data releases could further solidify market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [4]. - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on a bill to end the government shutdown, which is contributing to positive market sentiment [3]. AI Market Outlook - AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, provided an optimistic forecast for the AI market, predicting that the global AI chip market will reach $1 trillion by 2030, up from approximately $200 billion this year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 40% [5]. - AMD aims to capture a "double-digit" market share in the AI data center chip market, with projected annual revenue from AI data center chips reaching $100 billion within five years [5]. Morgan Stanley's Insights - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that concerns about an "AI bubble" are rising, but the semiconductor upcycle driven by AI is far from peaking, with expectations of continuation until 2027 [6]. - Global semiconductor revenue is forecasted to grow by 18% in 2026 and 11% in 2027 [7]. K-shaped Recovery in Semiconductor Sector - The current semiconductor upcycle is characterized as a "K-shaped recovery," with strong demand for AI-related products while other tech sectors face adjustments [8]. - The trajectory of this semiconductor recovery is likened to the early stages of smartphones and public cloud services, with generative AI still having significant growth potential [8]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Key cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to maintain strong capital expenditures, with the top six CSPs projected to increase spending by 67% in 2025 and about 32% in 2026 [8]. - Supply shortages in critical areas such as 3nm processes and high bandwidth memory (HBM) are anticipated to persist until 2026, extending the semiconductor upcycle [8]. NAND Flash Market Developments - Major players like Samsung and SK Hynix are planning to increase NAND prices by 20% to 30% as they reduce supply to drive price increases [9]. - Analysts predict that DRAM prices will continue to rise significantly in the coming weeks, with NAND contract prices potentially increasing by 20% to 30% in the fourth quarter [9].

Market Performance - The main board led the gains with notable increases in stocks such as Tianxiaxiu (+10.06%), Dagang Co. (+10.01%), and Zhongankey (+10.00%) [1] - The ChiNext board saw significant growth with Kexiang Co. (+19.98%), Aerospace Zhizhuang (+16.57%), and Aoni Electronics (+12.70%) [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board was also strong, highlighted by Dekeli (+11.93%), Ruikeda (+11.00%), and Yingfang Software (+8.61%) [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Communication Network Equipment and Devices (+1.51%) and SW Other Electronics III (+1.23%) [1] Domestic News - Hezhima Intelligent announced that its flagship product, the Huashan A1000 automotive-grade high-performance auxiliary driving chip, has been successfully integrated into Desay SV's new low-speed unmanned vehicle brand "Chuanxing Zhiyuan" S6 series, establishing a dual-brain redundancy architecture for enhanced safety in logistics automation [1] - CINNO reported that TCL Huaxing's Vietnam base has officially commenced mass production of IT products, with an annual capacity of 4.8 million for both display and notebook computer modules, marking a significant step in TCL Huaxing's global supply chain and Vietnam market strategy [1] - Lanke Technology launched a new generation DDR5 clock driver (CKD) chip, supporting data transfer rates of up to 9200 MT/s, which optimizes client memory subsystem performance for next-generation high-performance PCs, laptops, and workstations [1] - According to reports from South Korean media, Sunic System has received a letter of intent from BOE worth approximately $300 million (about 2.135 billion yuan) for subsequent orders related to OLED evaporation equipment [1] Company Announcements - Dahua Technology announced the repurchase of 33,300,901 shares, accounting for 1.01% of the total share capital, meeting the disclosure standard [3] - Dazhu CNC announced an increase in the expected amount of related party transactions for 2025 by 26 million yuan with Dazhu Laser and its controlling entity [3] - Yidao Information reported its first share repurchase of 22,400 shares, representing 0.02% of total share capital, with a transaction amount of 1,029,221 yuan (excluding transaction fees) [3] - Mingpu Optical Magnetic announced the acquisition of a patent for a vehicle-mounted cold-press integrated inductor and its preparation method, which enhances production efficiency through improved granule uniformity and flowability [3] International News - An international research team successfully developed the world's smallest organic light-emitting diode (OLED) pixel, measuring only 300 nm × 300 nm, achieving 1% external quantum efficiency and a maximum brightness of 3000 cd/m², paving the way for next-generation ultra-high-resolution AR/VR displays [4] - AMD's CTO emphasized that the Zen 6 architecture will cover both standard and high-density core versions, benefiting from significant IPC improvements, enabling generational performance leaps and enriching AI capabilities in Ryzen and EPYC processors [4] - SK Keyfoundry announced the acceleration of research on silicon carbide (SiC) based power semiconductor technology to strengthen its position in the global power semiconductor market, following the acquisition of SK Powertech [4] - GlobalFoundries announced a technology licensing agreement with TSMC for GaN technology, aiming to expedite mass production of next-generation power devices, with production expected to begin in late 2026 [4]

Core Insights - Nvidia's GTC conference in Washington D.C. marked a significant event where CEO Jensen Huang announced the next-generation Vera Rubin superchip and a $1 billion investment in Nokia, leading to a surge in Nvidia's stock price, which crossed $200 for the first time and made it the first company to reach a $5 trillion market cap [1][2] Stock Performance - Following the initial surge, Nvidia's stock experienced a decline from October 30 to November 6, with a maximum single-day drop of 3.7%, resulting in a market cap reduction of over $460 billion [2] - On November 10, Nvidia's stock rebounded with a 5.8% increase, marking the largest single-day gain since April [2] SoftBank's Actions - SoftBank announced it sold all its Nvidia shares in October, a move that sparked negative market sentiment, leading to a nearly 3% drop in Nvidia's stock price on the announcement day [3] - The sale, amounting to $5.83 billion, was interpreted as a signal of SoftBank's shift in focus towards investing in OpenAI, which SoftBank views as a future leader in the AI space [3][4] OpenAI Investment - SoftBank's investment in OpenAI, potentially up to $30 billion for a 5%-10% stake, indicates a strategic pivot towards AI, with OpenAI being a significant contributor to SoftBank's profits [4] - The anticipated IPO of OpenAI in 2027 could reach a valuation of $1 trillion, further emphasizing the potential of AI investments [4] Market Sentiment and Concerns - The market is experiencing heightened anxiety regarding the sustainability of AI valuations, drawing parallels to the internet bubble of the late 1990s [7] - Concerns are growing over potential oversupply in the AI chip market, as highlighted by recent underperformance from key players like TSMC and CoreWeave [8] - The competitive landscape is intensifying with the emergence of Chinese companies in the AI chip sector, posing a challenge to Nvidia's market position [8] Future Outlook - The ongoing debate about whether Nvidia will face a "big but not falling" scenario or a "prosperity followed by decline" situation is central to current market discussions [9] - Nvidia's future trajectory remains uncertain amid these market dynamics, with significant implications for investors and the broader tech industry [9]