证券代码：600782 证券简称：新钢股份 公告编号：临2025-071 新余钢铁股份有限公司 关于召开2025年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 二、说明会召开的时间、地点和方式 会议召开时间：2025 年 11 月 26 日（星期三）15:00-16:00 会议召开地点：价值在线（www.ir-online.cn） 会议召开方式：网络互动方式 三、参加人员 会议召开时间：2025 年 11 月 26 日（星期三）15:00-16:00 会议召开地点：价值在线（www.ir-online.cn） 会议召开方式：网络互动方式 在"价值在线"（www.ir-online.cn）举办新余钢铁股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度业绩说明会，与投资者进行沟通和交流，广泛听取 投资者的意见和建议。 重要内容提示： 会议问题征集：投资者可于 2025 年 11 月 26 日前访问网址 https://eseb.cn/1tkwfo6vs1G或使用微信扫描下方小程序码进行会 前提问，公司将通过本次业绩说明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in profits due to unexpected demand from manufacturing and direct exports, alongside the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, leading to an increase in supply optimization expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the SW steel index rose by 24.00%, ranking 17th among Shenwan industries, driven by improved manufacturing and export demand [1][2]. - From October 2025 to present, the SW steel index has continued to rise by 14.19%, ranking 4th among Shenwan industries [1][2]. - In Q3 2025, the profitability of the rebar sector turned positive, with a 102.59% increase in special steel profits year-on-year, while the gross profit margin rose to 7.59% and net profit margin increased to 2.19% [3]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The steel industry is focusing on differentiated production restrictions and classified management to promote high-value, low-carbon, and intelligent transformations, enhancing industry concentration and optimizing structural layout [3]. - Policies such as ultra-low emission upgrades and dual control of energy consumption are expected to drive capacity optimization and accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity [3]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - The manufacturing sector, particularly in machine tools, excavators, and commercial vehicles, remains resilient, with direct exports showing significant year-on-year growth, supporting steel demand [3]. - The construction sector is experiencing weak new starts, but forward-looking indicators like sales and land acquisition are showing reduced declines, stabilizing demand for construction steel [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Steel capacity optimization is expected to be a key focus moving forward, with a push for differentiated management to support competitive enterprises [4]. - Attention is recommended for leading steel companies such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel, as well as flexible stocks like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4]. - The special steel sector is projected to benefit from downstream demand in automotive, nuclear power, and oil and gas extraction, with companies like Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials highlighted for stable growth [4]. - In the raw materials sector, companies with clear non-ferrous resource increments, such as Dazhong Mining and Hebei Steel Resources, are recommended for investment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the "anti-involution" policy, supply optimization, and robust demand from manufacturing and direct exports, leading to a year-on-year profit recovery and significant stock price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Steel Sector Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the steel industry saw a 24% increase in the SW steel index, ranking 17th among all industries in the Shenwan classification [1]. - From October 2025 to the present, the SW steel index has risen by 14.19%, ranking 4th among Shenwan industries [1][2]. - In Q3 2025, the net profit of the general steel sector turned positive, while special steel profits grew by 102.59% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The introduction of differentiated production restrictions aims to promote high-value-added, low-carbon, and intelligent transformations in the steel industry, enhancing industry concentration and optimizing structural layout [3]. - Manufacturing sectors such as machine tools, excavators, and commercial vehicles remain resilient, with direct exports showing significant year-on-year growth, supporting steel demand [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The optimization of steel production capacity is expected to be a key investment theme, focusing on supporting superior companies and implementing differentiated management [5]. - Key steel leaders such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel are recommended for their advantages in capacity standardization and green transformation [5]. - In the special steel sector, companies benefiting from downstream industries like automotive and nuclear power are highlighted for their growth potential [5]. Group 4: Raw Material Sector - Companies with clear incremental non-ferrous resources, such as Dazhong Mining and Hebei Steel Resources, are recommended due to their diversified resource strategies [6].

Core Viewpoint - New Steel Co., Ltd. experienced a decline in stock price, with a current trading price of 4.03 CNY per share, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 21.02% but a recent drop of 5.40% over the last five trading days [1] Company Overview - New Steel Co., Ltd. is located in Xinyu City, Jiangxi Province, and was established on October 10, 2003, with its shares listed on December 25, 1996. The company primarily engages in steel smelting, steel rolling, and the manufacturing and sales of related products [1] - The main revenue sources for the company are steel and steel strand income, accounting for 89.63%, while other income constitutes 10.37% [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Steel Co., Ltd. reported an operating income of 27.225 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.68%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 162.21% to 360 million CNY [2] - The company has distributed a total of 5.584 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 816 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for New Steel Co., Ltd. was 38,200, a decrease of 11.78% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person increased by 13.35% to 82,368 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant new entrants such as Invesco Great Wall Jing Sheng Dual Income Bond A (002065) and various ETFs, indicating a shift in institutional holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a decline in demand and inventory, with expectations of a gradual recovery in profitability as supply-side constraints persist [1][3]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Analysis - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.606 million tons, a decrease of 63,300 tons week-on-week; construction materials consumption was 3.0335 million tons, down 40,200 tons; and sheet materials consumption was 5.5725 million tons, down 23,100 tons [1]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.3438 million tons, a decrease of 223,600 tons week-on-week, while total inventory stood at 14.7735 million tons, down 262,200 tons [1]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces at 247 steel mills was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace operating rate was 60.9%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Profitability Trends - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 81.4 CNY, an increase of 4.3 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil showed a negative gross profit of -16.6 CNY, also up by 4.3 CNY [2]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 38.96%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points week-on-week [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The real estate sector's ongoing decline is expected to reduce its negative impact on steel demand, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is anticipated to stabilize [3]. - The steel industry has been in a loss phase since Q3 2022, with nearly 60% of steel companies still reporting losses, indicating a market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur [3]. - The recently released "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes continued production reduction policies to promote dynamic supply-demand balance [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Long-term trends indicate that increased industry concentration and high-quality development will benefit steel companies with product structure and cost advantages [4]. - Key recommendations include Baosteel (600019.SH), Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), and Shougang (000959.SZ) for their leading technology and product structures, as well as CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ) and Yongjin Co. (603995.SH) for their competitive advantages [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [10] Core Views - The successful commissioning of the Simandou project and the gradual emergence of a relaxed iron ore trend are significant developments. Despite limited actual supply-demand impact on iron ore by 2025, the project's capacity of 120 million tons and the push for "anti-involution" suggest that global iron ore demand may not see significant growth. The trend towards relaxation in iron ore supply is becoming clearer [2][6] - Current global iron ore cash costs are around $90 per ton, and as the surplus increases, iron ore prices may gradually return to cost support levels. In the short term, high iron output and strong macroeconomic growth expectations at year-end support iron ore prices. However, as Simandou's capacity ramps up next year, prices may begin a smoother downward trend after the seasonal peak in April [2][6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The seasonal effect has deepened, with apparent steel demand continuing to weaken. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 3.13% year-on-year and 0.82% month-on-month. The average daily pig iron output increased to 2.3688 million tons, up by 2.66 thousand tons per day [4] - Steel inventory continues to decrease, maintaining a median level. Total steel inventory decreased by 1.88% week-on-week and increased by 20.48% year-on-year. Prices for rebar and hot-rolled steel have also seen slight declines [4] Section 2: Simandou Project - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea officially commenced operations on November 11, with a total investment exceeding $20 billion. The project includes over 600 kilometers of newly built multi-purpose railway and supporting port facilities, with an annual export capacity of up to 120 million tons [5][6] Section 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the main trading theme in the steel sector may be "iron ore concessions + the realization of steel production cuts under anti-involution." The profit distribution in the black industry chain shows that iron ore occupies a significant share, indicating ample room for concessions. Major steel companies like Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel may see further performance elasticity due to cost relaxation and resilient steel sales prices [7][27]

Market Overview - On November 17, the general steel sector rose by 0.01% compared to the previous trading day, with Hangzhou Iron & Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03, down 0.46%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13202.0, down 0.11% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Hangzhou Iron & Steel (600126) closed at 9.25, up 2.21% with a trading volume of 1,096,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.013 billion [1] - Shougang Group (000959) closed at 4.63, up 1.76% with a trading volume of 516,500 shares [1] - Other notable performers include Nanjing Steel (600282) up 1.25%, Linggang Steel (600231) up 0.78%, and Baosteel (600581) up 0.77% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The general steel sector experienced a net outflow of 44.86 million from institutional funds and 90.84 million from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 136 million [2] - Hangzhou Iron & Steel had a net inflow of 15 million from institutional funds, but a net outflow of 69.36 million from speculative funds [3] - Other companies like Hualing Steel (000932) and Shandong Steel (600022) also showed mixed fund flows, with Hualing Steel experiencing a net inflow of 30.44 million from institutional funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth and current state of the black metal smelting and rolling industry in China, indicating a slight increase in the number of enterprises in this sector from the previous year [1] Industry Overview - As of January to September 2025, there are 6,290 enterprises in the black metal smelting and rolling industry, which is an increase of 44 enterprises compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [1] - The black metal smelting and rolling industry accounts for 1.2% of the total industrial enterprises in China [1] Statistical Data - The data regarding the number of enterprises in the black metal smelting and rolling industry has been compiled from the National Bureau of Statistics and organized by Zhiyan Consulting [1] - The threshold for scale industrial enterprises was raised from an annual main business income of 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan starting from 2011 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing fluctuations in production and demand, with a notable increase in capacity utilization rates, while prices and profits remain under pressure. The overall outlook suggests potential for recovery driven by government policies and market stabilization efforts. Supply Situation - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 88.8%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [2][3] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces is 53.2%, up by 2.31 percentage points week-on-week [2][3] - The production of five major steel products is 7.261 million tons, a decrease of 229,800 tons or 3.07% week-on-week [2][3] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons week-on-week and 28,200 tons year-on-year [2][5] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products is 8.606 million tons, down by 63,300 tons or 0.73% week-on-week [2][3] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 100,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons or 3.87% week-on-week [2][3] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.614 million tons, a decrease of 136,100 tons or 1.27% week-on-week, but an increase of 306,100 tons year-on-year [3] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.16 million tons, down by 126,100 tons or 2.94% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 6.35% [3] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,422.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47 yuan/ton or 0.07% week-on-week, but down by 6.85% year-on-year [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,581.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.59 yuan/ton or 0.16% week-on-week, and down by 3.37% year-on-year [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces is -29 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.0 yuan/ton or 25.64% week-on-week [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces is -155 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.0 yuan/ton or 4.32% week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port is 786 yuan/ton, up by 10.0 yuan/ton or 1.29% week-on-week [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4] Market Outlook - The initiation of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment is expected to stabilize market confidence and positively impact steel prices [5] - The steel industry is anticipated to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, supported by government "stability growth" policies, with potential improvements in demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors [6] - The industry is expected to see structural investment opportunities, particularly in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8][9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a strong performance this year, with a year-to-date increase of over 30%, ranking 7th among Shenwan's primary industries [2]. - The report highlights that the average daily pig iron production has increased to 236.9 thousand tons, while steel production has decreased [11]. - The total inventory of steel has decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 1.7%, indicating a tightening supply [23]. - Apparent steel consumption has shown a slight decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.7% [52]. - The report notes that iron ore prices have strengthened, influenced by reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil [49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Steel Index closed at 1,999.70 points, up 0.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.91 percentage points [1][94]. Supply Analysis - Daily pig iron production increased by 2.8 thousand tons, while steel production has decreased, particularly in rebar [11][17]. - The capacity utilization rate for 247 steel mills is reported at 88.8%, reflecting a slight increase [17]. Inventory Analysis - The total inventory of five major steel products decreased to 1,061.4 million tons, down 1.3% week-on-week [25]. - Steel mill inventories also saw a decline, with a 2.9% reduction [25]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, with rebar demand dropping more significantly [40][52]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel was 100 thousand tons, reflecting a 3.9% increase [41]. Price and Profitability - The report indicates a slight increase in steel prices, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising to 121.2, up 0.1% week-on-week [75]. - Current costs for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are reported at 3,518 yuan/ton and 3,744 yuan/ton, respectively, with negative margins [75][76].