柳工挖掘机智慧工厂于2023年11月正式投产，作为柳工智能国际工业园的先行项目， 广泛融合机器人、人工智能、物联网等先进技术，实现生产流程的自动化、数字化与智 能化管理，显著提升生产效率和资源利用水平。展望未来，挖掘机业务将持续弘扬柳工 文化，以技术创新驱动产业升级，为实现规模与盈利双增长、在全球工程机械市场谱写 新篇章而全力奋进。 【行业热点】 1 业绩改观，工程机械行业复苏或已在路上？ 1 2月29日下午，柳工挖掘机智慧工厂迎来里程碑时刻—— 2 0 2 5年第1 0 0 0 0台挖掘机 正式下线 。股份公司党委副书记、副董事长、总裁罗国兵，股份公司副总裁、挖掘机 事业部党委书记、总经理袁世国，股份公司副总裁、首席质量官肖小磊等领导，与优 秀供应商代表及员工代表共同出席仪式，见证这一重要成就。 柳工柳州挖掘机业务已实现 13- 200吨全系列产品 的柔性智能化生产，年产突破一万 台，创下历史新高。这一成绩得益于公司领导的战略指引、供应商伙伴的协同支持以及 全体员工的辛勤付出。未来，挖掘机业务将继续秉持 "上下一致、内外对齐、靠前指 挥、同频共振、快人一步" 的工作理念，全力完成"十四五"收官任务，积极备战 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic engineering machinery sector, with a strategic goal to achieve revenue of 60 billion yuan by 2030, focusing on comprehensive solutions, full automation, and internationalization [7][29]. - The company has experienced a significant recovery in the domestic market, with a 21.5% year-on-year growth in excavator sales in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by infrastructure projects and equipment renewal policies [7][9]. - The mixed-ownership reform has revitalized the company's operational vitality, leading to a 52.9% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, indicating a shift towards high-quality growth [9][31]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 30,063 million, 34,258 million, 39,887 million, and 45,801 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 14.0%, 16.4%, and 14.8% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,327 million, 1,627 million, 2,237 million, and 2,773 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 52.9%, 22.6%, 37.5%, and 24.0% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.65, 0.80, 1.10, and 1.36 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [3]. Business Overview - The company has established a comprehensive product system covering various machinery types, including excavators, loaders, and industrial vehicles, with a global presence in over 180 countries [14][16]. - The company has implemented a "three major growth curves" strategy, focusing on stabilizing its core earth-moving machinery business, accelerating growth in emerging sectors, and enhancing its international presence [7][29]. - The company is transitioning from a product-centric approach to a customer-centric model, providing integrated solutions that encompass the entire lifecycle of equipment [30]. Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 46.9% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, serving as a stabilizing force against domestic market fluctuations [7][34]. - The company’s profitability has improved, with a gross margin stabilizing above 22% and a net margin increasing from 2.44% in 2022 to 4.93% in the first three quarters of 2025 [36]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a convertible bond issuance to fund smart manufacturing and production upgrades, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and risk resilience [27]. - The mixed-ownership reform has led to a diversified shareholding structure, which is expected to facilitate further integration of resources and innovation [19][21]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 60 billion yuan by 2030, with a focus on increasing the international revenue share to over 60% and improving net profit margins [29]. - The strategic emphasis on electric and high-margin products is expected to enhance competitiveness and profitability in the face of domestic price pressures [36].

公 司 研 究 混改效果持续体现，收入和净利润维持增长 柳工(000528) 公司 2026 年年度财务预算议案点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵靖博(分析师) | 021-23185625 | zhaojingbo@gtht.com | S0880525040056 | 本报告导读： 目前挖机内销温和复苏，海外销售结构性改善，公司智能化、电动化、全球化布局 完善，混改效果突出，业绩有望持续释放。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 27,519 | 30,063 | 34,368 | 39,305 | 43,184 | | (+/-)% | 3.9% | 9.2 ...

柳工(000528)12月29日在分析师会议上表示，2025年公司矿山业务受煤炭价格下行的影响，国内矿山开 工不足，导致收入、毛利率增速不及预期。随着全球矿产品价格持续回暖，市场需求稳步恢复，以及公 司强化研发力度，超大型、智慧型矿山产品落地，升级后的全面解决方案推向市场，2026年起矿山业务 预计将迎来恢复性增长。矿山业务是公司"十五五"战略重点突破的关键业务，公司未来将加强与国内外 大型矿山企业建立长期战略合作，并投入更多资源推动市场开拓和战略落地，将矿山业务打造成为装载 机、挖掘机后的第三大核心业务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - LiuGong Machinery held an analyst meeting on December 29, 2025, discussing its 2026 operational plans, overseas market strategies, and key business developments with 122 participating institutions and analysts [1][2]. Group 1: 2026 Operational Plans - LiuGong Machinery plans to significantly increase R&D and marketing investments in 2026, focusing on long-term strategic implementation and enhancing global competitiveness [3]. - The company expects improved asset quality in 2026 due to asset disposals in 2025, leading to a substantial reduction in impairment provisions [3]. Group 2: Overseas Market Strategy - LiuGong Machinery aims for balanced development across nine overseas regions, with historical highs in revenue, sales, and profits in the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - The company plans to increase resource investment in overseas markets in 2026, targeting high-quality growth and outperforming the industry [4]. Group 3: Mining Machinery Business - The mining machinery segment is a key focus for LiuGong's "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for recovery in 2026 due to rising global mineral prices and market demand [5]. - LiuGong aims to establish mining machinery as its third core business after loaders and excavators, enhancing partnerships with major mining companies [5]. Group 4: Agricultural Machinery Business - LiuGong positions its agricultural machinery segment as a strategic emerging business, which, despite its smaller size, has significant growth potential and can mitigate cyclical risks from the main business [6]. - The company is currently not assessing agricultural machinery performance but aims to enhance product technology and quality [6]. Group 5: Share Buyback and Global Manufacturing Capacity - LiuGong has implemented two phases of share buybacks totaling approximately 55.23 million shares for future employee incentive plans [7]. - The company is advancing its global manufacturing layout, with ongoing projects in South Asia and Indonesia expected to be operational in the coming years [8].

Group 1: Financial Goals and Performance - The company's net profit margin target for 2025 is set to increase by over 1 percentage point, while the target for 2026 is adjusted to over 0.5 percentage points, balancing practicality and ambition [2][3] - The company anticipates significant challenges in achieving the 2025 profit margin growth due to intense domestic competition and impairment provisions [3] Group 2: Overseas Market Strategy - The company has a balanced revenue distribution across nine overseas regions, with overall income, sales, and profits reaching new highs in the first three quarters [3][4] - The overseas construction machinery market is expected to see positive growth in 2026, with the company planning to increase resource investment in overseas markets [4] Group 3: Mining Machinery Outlook - The mining business is projected to recover starting in 2026, driven by rising global mineral prices and enhanced product offerings [4] - The company aims to establish long-term strategic partnerships with major mining enterprises to strengthen its market position [4] Group 4: Agricultural Machinery Development - The agricultural machinery sector is positioned as a strategic emerging business, with plans to enhance product technology and quality [5] - The company has initiated small-scale sales of high-power tractors and expects to launch them in larger volumes starting in 2026 [5] Group 5: Shareholder Incentives - The company has repurchased approximately 55.23 million shares for a new round of equity incentives or employee stock ownership plans [6] - A detailed incentive plan is being developed, pending approval from regulatory authorities [6] Group 6: Global Production Capacity - The company is enhancing its global production capacity, with ongoing projects in South Asia and Indonesia expected to be operational in the coming years [8] - Plans for low-cost manufacturing overseas are in place to mitigate risks from geopolitical tensions and trade disputes [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan forecasts significant revenue and profit growth for Zoomlion (000157) from 2025 to 2027, indicating a strong investment opportunity due to undervaluation compared to peers [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Projections - Expected revenue for Zoomlion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 53.264 billion, 61.667 billion, and 70.777 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 17.12%, 15.78%, and 14.77% respectively [1]. - Anticipated net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is forecasted at 4.849 billion, 6.30078 billion, and 7.841 billion yuan, with growth rates of 37.72%, 29.93%, and 24.46% respectively [1]. - The report suggests a target market capitalization of 92.1 billion yuan for 2026 based on a 15x PE ratio, indicating a potential upside of 57% from the current market cap of 58.8 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Zoomlion, originally established as Changsha Construction Machinery Research Institute, has evolved into a leading brand in the engineering machinery sector, with a diversified business model that includes concrete machinery, lifting machinery, and agricultural machinery [2]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product portfolio that includes 15 major categories and 745 product models, supported by 29 domestic industrial parks and 10 overseas R&D and manufacturing bases [2]. - Zoomlion has pursued globalization through overall listing, overseas factories, and quality asset acquisitions, positioning itself as a pioneer in the internationalization of Chinese engineering machinery [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - In the domestic market, there are signs of recovery in the real estate sector, with construction equipment utilization rates improving, indicating a potential stabilization in infrastructure investment growth starting in 2026 [3]. - The overseas market shows positive trends, with North America nearing the end of inventory reduction and improved new orders, while demand in Europe remains stable, driven by electric products [3]. - Strong demand for mining, infrastructure, and real estate in regions like Africa and Latin America is expected to contribute to sales growth, with a potential resonance between domestic and international markets in 2026 [3]. Group 4: Product and Market Strategy - Zoomlion is diversifying its revenue sources, with the share of income from cranes and concrete machinery decreasing from over 75% to around 50%, while other products like earth-moving machinery and agricultural equipment are contributing to growth [4]. - The company is implementing a comprehensive overseas strategy that includes establishing over 30 primary business hubs and more than 430 secondary and tertiary outlets, employing around 5,000 local staff [4]. - Embracing the trend of general artificial intelligence, Zoomlion is advancing the application of embodied intelligence in engineering machinery, agricultural machinery, and special equipment, aiming to create a third growth curve [4].

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd. has launched Smart Butler 2.0, leveraging AI for equipment lifecycle management, driving the industry's intelligent transformation [1] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The construction machinery industry is accelerating its transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green solutions, with increasing customer demands for precision and efficiency in equipment operation [1] - Liugong is evolving from a traditional equipment manufacturer to a provider of smart green equipment and technical solutions, enhancing its production capabilities and order intake [1] Group 2: Smart Manufacturing Enhancements - Liugong's intelligent factory features advanced automation, including robotic arms and automated guided vehicles (AGVs), significantly improving safety, product quality, work environment, and production efficiency [2] - The factory has achieved a production efficiency increase of 27% and a capacity increase of 18% due to the implementation of smart manufacturing solutions [3] Group 3: Market Performance - In the first half of the year, Liugong's domestic sales of new energy equipment grew by over 260%, with the company holding the top market share in electric loaders [3] - International sales in the first half of the year nearly matched the total sales of the previous year, with a growth of over 200%, particularly in high-end markets like Europe [3] Group 4: Customer-Centric Innovations - Liugong developed a dual-function electric loader for an Indian client, showcasing its commitment to customer needs and problem-solving capabilities [4] - The company emphasizes a principle of addressing challenges directly and efficiently, leading to improved product performance and customer satisfaction [6] Group 5: Commitment to Electrification and Automation - Liugong has delivered over 40 electric devices to a major client, enhancing production support and green logistics [6] - The company is focused on integrating electrification, intelligence, and automation technologies, establishing a comprehensive electric product line to meet diverse operational needs [6][7] Group 6: Global Competitive Strategy - Liugong aims to strengthen its position in high-end markets by offering a series of intelligent, digital, and lifecycle cost-optimized products, enhancing after-sales support for improved customer service [7] - The company is committed to building a sustainable ecosystem for electrification through global collaboration and innovative marketing strategies [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the advancement of intelligent machinery in China's engineering sector, particularly in emergency rescue operations and mining environments [1][4][5] - A new batch of unmanned emergency rescue equipment was launched by a leading Chinese engineering machinery company, showcasing a 2-ton electric intelligent excavator capable of operating in confined spaces and hazardous conditions [3][4] - The evolution from single-machine operation to collaborative group operation is emphasized, with examples of coordinated efforts in construction sites and mining operations, enhancing efficiency and safety [3][5] Group 2 - The integration of autonomous vehicles and intelligent scheduling systems in mining operations is presented, demonstrating real-time adjustments and collision prevention capabilities [4][5] - The industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation, shifting from hardware performance metrics to software-defined, data-driven, and system integration capabilities as the new competitive dimensions [5] - Companies are evolving from mere equipment manufacturers to providers of intelligent construction solutions and ecosystem builders in specific scenarios such as emergency rescue and mining [5]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The US real estate market is currently in a "weak supply and demand" state, with expectations of a weak recovery by 2026 due to challenges in policy transmission and external risks [2] - Industrial profits in November continued to decline year-on-year, with only the midstream equipment sector showing stable growth, while upstream and downstream sectors weakened [3] - The A-share market has not shown clear signs of a bull market peak, indicating continued potential for market performance [4] Group 2: Market Strategies - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally supported by ongoing policy efforts and capital inflows, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors [5] - The REITs market has shown signs of price recovery after five weeks of decline, with notable returns compared to other asset classes [6] - Credit bond issuance increased by 15.42% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in the credit market [7] Group 3: Industry Research - The green methanol sector is rapidly growing under the "carbon neutrality" initiative, with a focus on companies that have established a complete supply chain [10] - The engineering machinery industry is witnessing a recovery in domestic demand and accelerated overseas growth, with several key manufacturers recommended for investment [11] - Strategic metals are expected to see investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [12] Group 4: Company Research - Sinopec Engineering's acquisition of the East China Pipeline Design Institute is expected to enhance its competitive edge in pipeline transportation [19] - China Oil Engineering has signed a $424 million EPC contract for a pipeline project in Kazakhstan, indicating its proactive expansion into overseas markets [20] - Jinhui Liquor is positioned to benefit from regional brand advantages and market expansion, with strong revenue and profit growth projections [21]