2026 年 01 月 11 日 有色金属 宏观升温板块大涨，重视稀土涨价行情 本周全球宏观情绪升温，有色商品、股票均出现不同程度涨幅，其锂、 银、锡、铝领涨。周五晚美国公布数据，12 月失业率 4.4%，超预期 回落，市场定价 1 月美联储不降息。美国最高法院暂未公布对特朗普 关税的判决，下周三将是下一次公布裁决日，市场对于精炼铜等关税 预期有所降温，后续可能回归基本面。短期受全球宏观影响的有色商 品可能震荡为主，而独立于产业供需逻辑的品种（如稀土、钽等）可 能持续上涨。中长期持续看好铜铝稀土锡锂金银钽铌锑铀等金属。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4473、79.4 美元/盎司，环比分别 +3.68%、+2.75%.美国 12 月非农就业人数新增 5 万人略低于预期，失 业率小幅下降至 4.4%，市场普遍预期 1 月美联储会议将不降息.美联 储理事米兰表示，预计 2026 年将降息约 150bp.中国央行连续第 14 个月增持黄金，黄金储备 7415 万盎司，环比+3 万盎司.彭博大宗商 品指数年度权重再平衡 8 日启动 14 日结束，对贵金属价格影响预计 将逐渐减弱.央行和 ETF 资金积 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The US real estate market is currently in a "weak supply and demand" state, with expectations of a weak recovery by 2026 due to challenges in policy transmission and external risks [2] - Industrial profits in November continued to decline year-on-year, with only the midstream equipment sector showing stable growth, while upstream and downstream sectors weakened [3] - The A-share market has not shown clear signs of a bull market peak, indicating continued potential for market performance [4] Group 2: Market Strategies - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally supported by ongoing policy efforts and capital inflows, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors [5] - The REITs market has shown signs of price recovery after five weeks of decline, with notable returns compared to other asset classes [6] - Credit bond issuance increased by 15.42% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in the credit market [7] Group 3: Industry Research - The green methanol sector is rapidly growing under the "carbon neutrality" initiative, with a focus on companies that have established a complete supply chain [10] - The engineering machinery industry is witnessing a recovery in domestic demand and accelerated overseas growth, with several key manufacturers recommended for investment [11] - Strategic metals are expected to see investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [12] Group 4: Company Research - Sinopec Engineering's acquisition of the East China Pipeline Design Institute is expected to enhance its competitive edge in pipeline transportation [19] - China Oil Engineering has signed a $424 million EPC contract for a pipeline project in Kazakhstan, indicating its proactive expansion into overseas markets [20] - Jinhui Liquor is positioned to benefit from regional brand advantages and market expansion, with strong revenue and profit growth projections [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-A" [4] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant weekly increase of 6.3%, driven by rising prices of lithium, copper, gold, and silver, although stock prices remain stagnant compared to commodity price increases. The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could benefit non-ferrous metals as they are expected to gain from overseas inflation [1] - The report expresses optimism about the valuation recovery potential in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly for lithium, copper, silver, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium [1] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have increased, with COMEX gold at $4540.1 per ounce (+4.10%) and silver at $79.0 per ounce (+18.14%). The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have contributed to this rise, alongside strong demand from central banks and ETFs [2] - Recommended stocks include Shandong Gold, Shandong International, China Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have risen, with LME copper at $12133.0 per ton (+3.46%) and SHFE copper at ¥98600 per ton (+6.53%). Supply constraints and reduced processing fees are influencing the market, while demand from downstream industries is currently subdued [3] - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, HeSteel Resources, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous, and Yunnan Copper [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices have shown a slight increase, with LME aluminum at $2956.5 per ton (+1.35%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥22335.0 per ton (+1.66%). The macroeconomic environment and liquidity are supporting prices, despite a trend towards seasonal weakness in demand [8] Tin - Tin prices have seen fluctuations, with SHFE tin at ¥337560 per ton (-0.4%). Supply remains tight, and concerns about imports from key regions persist, while demand is expected to rise due to the electronics sector [9] Energy Metals - Lithium prices have surged, with carbonate lithium futures at ¥130520 per ton (+17.2%). The market anticipates increased demand for energy storage and power batteries, with a positive outlook for lithium prices in 2026 [10] - Recommended stocks include Dazhong Mining, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Zhongmin Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Tianhua New Energy, Yahua Group, and Yongxing Materials [10] Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices are showing mixed trends, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide at ¥595500 and ¥607500 per ton, respectively. The approval of export licenses may boost demand [13] - Recommended stocks include Huahong Technology, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, and Guangsheng Nonferrous [13]

2025年，全球金属市场迎来"载入史册"的一年：黄金、白银、铜自1980年以来首次同创历史新高，A股 有色板块以超70%涨幅领跑；白银年内翻倍、钴价飙涨130%、镓价掌控全球定价权……这场贯穿全年 的涨价潮，不是短期炒作，而是"供需矛盾+政策调控+产业升级"三重力量共振的结果——金属行业正 从"周期波动"迈入"新质生产力驱动的价值重估周期"，一场由供需重构引发的超级周期，已然开启。 一、贵金属：黄金破4500美元，白银翻倍成"黑马" 2025年贵金属市场堪称"疯狂"，四大品种集体站上历史巅峰，核心逻辑是"避险+工业"双轮驱动： 黄金：4400美元"压舱石"：国际金价一度突破4500美元/盎司，年内涨幅超60%，50次刷新纪录。背后 是"全球不确定性+央行增持"的双重支撑——地缘冲突、美元信用弱化催生避险需求，各国央行持续购 金（2025年全球央行净购金超1000吨），黄金的"货币属性"与"战略储备价值"被重新定义。 白银：翻倍"黑马"：年内涨幅超100%，光伏银浆是核心引擎——全球光伏装机量爆发，1GW组件需银 约10吨，2025年光伏用银量同比增50%，工业需求直接"点燃"银价；同时，黄金上涨的"估值联动" ...

2025 年 12 月 21 日 有色金属 铜矿长协加工费降至 0，铜价或迎来新 一轮上涨 特朗普称下一任美联储主席候选人需支撑大幅降低利率，向市场传 达了 26 年有超预期降息的可能。本周五日本央行加息 25 基点，符 合市场预期。考虑到市场已提前交易加息带来的流动性影响，加息落 地后全球股市、金属情绪升温，贵金属、工业金属价格迎来普涨，未 来美元指数仍有下行空间。本周中国铜冶炼厂与 Antofagasta 敲定 了 26 年铜矿长协加工费为 0 美元/吨，冶炼减产预期上升，铜价或 迎来新一轮上涨。持续看好金银铜铝锡稀土锑锂钴钽铀等金属。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4354.0、66.8 美元/盎司,环比分别 +1.25%、+8.85%。美国 11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，创 2021 年以 来最低水平。美联储主席候选人哈塞特表示美联储将有很大空间可以 降息。日本央行加息 25bp 落地，市场影响有限。特朗普称下一任美 联储主席候选人需支撑大幅降低利率。央行和 etf 资金积极增持驱 动延续，持续看好金价中长期上涨趋势。伦敦和国内白银库存紧张， 现货紧张对价格有助推，看好白银 ...

行业周报 | 有色金属 2026 经济开局定调+美联储降息扩表，看好有色景气上行 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 有色金属行业周报（2025.12.8 -2025.12.14） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：政治局会议定调明年经济工作，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策 2026 年经济工作的政策基调已经明确，会议指出，做好明年经济 工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协 同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜 发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重 点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实 现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五 五"良好开局。2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，政策取向将直接 影响未来五年经济发展的节奏与质量。政策基调将更为积极，重点 解决经济运行中的结构性矛盾，通过更加精准有效的政策组合拳， 激发经济增长新动能。 本周核心关注二：美联储继续降息，同时重启扩表 12 月 11 日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 0.25 个百分点至 3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。其中声明新 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the strategic metals industry. Core Insights - Strategic metals are critical for national economic security, defense, and the development of strategic emerging industries, with supply facing high risks due to scarcity, geographical concentration, and geopolitical instability [2][13]. - The competition for strategic metal resources is intensifying due to their essential role in technology, economy, and military applications, leading to increased demand and supply chain security concerns [13][14][15]. Summary by Sections Definition and Importance of Strategic Metals - Strategic metals are defined as key minerals crucial for a country's economic and defense security, with high supply risks and irreplaceability [2]. - China has identified 24 strategic minerals, including tungsten, lithium, and rare earth elements, as essential for national interests [2][6]. Global Developments and Policies - On September 5, 2025, an executive order by Trump confirmed the importance of strategic metals by implementing tariff exemptions on several key metals, reaffirming their critical status [3]. - The global landscape for strategic metals has evolved, with various countries, including the EU and Japan, establishing their own critical mineral lists and strategies [4]. China's Strategic Metal Advantages - China holds significant advantages in tungsten, antimony, tin, and molybdenum, with global production shares of 80.8%, 48.2%, 23.4%, and 42.3% respectively [7][9]. - Despite its production capabilities, China still relies on imports for high-value applications in advanced manufacturing [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance for strategic metals is exacerbated by their scarcity and concentrated geographical distribution, with increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [14]. - The U.S. and China are engaged in a strategic competition over these resources, with both countries enhancing their policies to secure supply chains [15][16]. Innovations and Breakthroughs in Applications - Chinese companies are making significant advancements in strategic metal applications, such as the production of 80-nanometer nickel powder and the development of high-efficiency rare earth permanent magnet motors [25][26]. - New technologies, including lithium sulfide preparation for solid-state batteries, are being pioneered by Chinese firms, enhancing energy density and safety [30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market-A" [3] Core Views - Metal prices are accelerating, with a focus on the performance elasticity of the sector. The increase in prices for precious metals (silver, gold), industrial metals (copper, tin, aluminum), and rare earths is attributed to both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has reached 86.4%, leading to improved risk appetite and liquidity in the global market. Various favorable factors for metals like silver, copper, tin, and rare earths have contributed to further price increases. The report maintains a positive outlook on metals such as gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, lithium, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium, indicating potential for price increases and emphasizing the importance of stock valuation recovery [1][4][9]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have risen, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4223.9 and $56.4 per ounce, reflecting increases of 3.54% and 6.49% respectively. The Federal Reserve's support for a rate cut in December is driven by concerns over the labor market and recruitment slowdown, with expectations that the rate cut process may not halt soon. The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in gold prices, supported by central bank and ETF purchases, and highlights tight silver inventories in London and domestically, which could boost prices [4][8]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have also increased, with LME copper closing at $11175.5 per ton, up 3.65% week-on-week. Supply-side discussions during the CESCO conference have led to agreements on reducing copper production capacity by over 10% by 2026. Demand from copper rod and wire cable manufacturers shows slight fluctuations in operating rates. As of November 28, social copper inventories were at 173,500 tons, down 2,100 tons from the previous week, indicating a positive outlook for copper prices under supply constraints [4][5][6]. Tin - Tin prices have risen to 304,060 yuan per ton, up 4.09%. Supply issues are exacerbated by conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which may impact production and exports. The report suggests that short-term tin prices could exceed 300,000 yuan, potentially stimulating further supply from Myanmar, but overall supply tightness is expected to persist. The demand side is anticipated to remain strong due to ongoing needs in the electronics sector [8][9]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown divergence, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and terbium oxide at 579,000 and 6,425,000 yuan respectively. Following a period of inventory depletion, a potential supply shortage is expected due to stricter regulatory adjustments in December. The report indicates that if export licenses and white list policies are implemented, a new price increase cycle for rare earths may commence [9][10]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are around 401,500 yuan per ton, with ongoing tightness in supply due to delays in export approvals from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The market is experiencing a "price without market" scenario, with demand remaining stable. The report maintains a positive outlook for cobalt prices in the medium to long term due to expected supply constraints [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in antimony prices, suggesting potential investment opportunities in antimony-related sectors [47][49] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes indicate a considerable division among policymakers regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, which could impact market conditions [16][19] - U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a notable increase of 119,000 jobs in September, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, which may temper rate cut expectations [18] - The extension of the artisanal mining trade ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo adds pressure to global supplies of tin, tantalum, and tungsten, critical materials for various industries [20][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 6.75%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.85 percentage points [10][11] - Key stocks showed varied performance, with Shengxin Lithium Energy leading with a gain of 12.16%, while Minfa Aluminum faced a significant drop of 25.40% [10][12] Metal Prices and Inventory Changes - Copper prices on the LME were reported at $10,778 per ton, down 0.63% week-on-week, with COMEX inventories rising by 5.66% [22][24] - Aluminum prices decreased to $2,808 per ton on the LME, with SHFE inventories increasing by 7.67% [22][24] - Zinc prices fell to $2,992 per ton, while LME inventories surged by 18.39% [23][24] Strategic Metals - Antimony prices have shown a significant increase, with the average price reaching 165,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a 16.59% rise week-on-week [47][49] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in strategic metals, particularly in light of China's easing of export restrictions on certain rare earth materials [61]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Views - The report highlights a favorable macroeconomic environment for industrial and precious metals due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the suspension of export controls by the U.S. and China, which is expected to boost demand for rare earths and other metals [1][2][8] - There is an optimistic outlook for metals such as rare earths, copper, aluminum, tin, silver, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium, driven by low inventory levels and anticipated replenishment demand [1][8] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown fluctuations, with COMEX gold at $3995.7/oz and silver at $48.7/oz, reflecting a -3.08% and +0.57% change respectively [2] - Global gold demand reached 1313 tons in Q3 2025, with investment demand up by 47% year-on-year [2] - The report suggests a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, supported by central bank and ETF buying [2] Industrial Metals Copper - LME copper closed at $10,892/ton, with a slight decrease of 1% from the previous week [2] - The report notes a stable supply situation with controlled production capacity and a demand-side focus on essential procurement [2][3] - Social copper inventory stood at 182,600 tons, with a slight increase, while LME inventory decreased [2] Aluminum - LME aluminum was priced at $2888.0/ton, showing a 0.33% increase [3] - The report indicates limited changes in domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity, with overseas production cuts contributing to supply tightness [3][7] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased to 619,000 tons [7] Tin - The report mentions that tin prices remained stable, with the main contract at 283,910 yuan/ton [7] - There is an expectation of increased demand from the electronics sector due to the Fed's rate cuts [7] Strategic Metals Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides were reported at 536,500 yuan and 6,625,000 yuan respectively, with a 7% increase for praseodymium [8] - The suspension of export controls is expected to enhance demand for rare earths, leading to a potential price recovery [8] - The report anticipates a gradual bullish trend for rare earths driven by replenishment demand [8] Cobalt - Cobalt prices remain around 400,000 yuan/ton, with a tight supply situation expected to persist [8] - The report highlights a bullish outlook for cobalt prices due to ongoing supply constraints [8]