2025 年 12 月 12 日 【趋势强度】 趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 生猪：降温提涨不及预期，仓单增量 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11430 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11900 | | 50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12210 | | -200 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2601 ...

Group 1 - The company, Shennong Group, reported that as of December 10, the number of its shareholders reached 19,135 [2]

宠物食品 行业增长动力发生根本性转变——从单纯依赖宠物数量增长，转向以"宠均消费提升"为核心驱动力。海 外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续提升，龙头企业成长持续兑现。 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）生猪养殖板块，优质公司持续盈利和分红率提升依然是推动板块长期业绩和估值提升 的核心驱动；近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化，助力未来板块业绩长期提升，相关标 的：牧原股份、新希望、温氏股份、神农集团、巨星农牧等。（2）禽板块：产能缓增，价格有望维持 低波动，关注品种间节奏差异。中期黄鸡价格仍可观，远端引种受阻影响下，白鸡苗与肉鸡价格有望上 行，相关标的：圣农发展、益生股份、立华股份。（3）后周期板块，生猪存栏量回升提振饲料、动保 需求，若本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步向下游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大 集团、瑞普生物等。（4）种植链，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植与种业基本面向好，大种植投资机 会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发、北大荒、海南橡胶、隆平高科、荃银高科等。（5）宠物板块，宠食行 业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续提升，龙头企业成 长持续兑现 ...

| 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11330 | | 50 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11850 | | 200 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12410 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11535 | | -40 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11310 | | -140 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11840 | | -140 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓量 ...

Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is currently facing losses for both fat and piglet sales, indicating conditions for capacity reduction. The industry is expected to accelerate capacity reduction, presenting a left-side layout opportunity for the pig farming sector. A price turning point is anticipated in mid-2026 [16][20][34] - Major pig farming companies recommended include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with attention to Dekang Agriculture and New Hope. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller farming enterprises to watch include Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [16][34] Pig Industry Analysis - In 2025, the pig price fell below the cost line, leading to overall industry losses. By November, the average loss per self-breeding pig was 122 CNY per head, with an estimated annual profit of 30-80 CNY per head [20][23] - The industry is experiencing a significant reduction in breeding sow inventory, with a decrease to 39.9 million heads by October 2025, down 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [28][36] Dairy Industry Analysis - The raw milk price continued to decline in 2025, leading to a reduction in dairy cow inventory. As the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices are expected to rise in 2026-2027 [16][18] - The beef supply is also entering a contraction phase, with expectations for beef prices to rise in 2026, enhancing the performance elasticity of livestock companies [16][18] Feed Industry Analysis - The feed sector is expected to see stable water aquaculture production in 2026, while demand for livestock feed is projected to decline due to reduced breeding capacity. Domestic feed leaders are positioned to benefit from overseas expansion opportunities [17][18] - The global feed industry is undergoing structural changes, providing opportunities for Chinese feed companies to expand internationally [17] Animal Health Industry Analysis - The animal health sector faces intensified competition, with traditional vaccine product margins declining. Companies are shifting towards multi-business models, including pet health products, to open new growth avenues [17][18] Pet Food Industry Analysis - The pet food market is showing signs of consolidation, with leading companies like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. performing well. The long-term growth logic for the industry remains strong, supported by the rise of domestic brands [17][18] - Companies are also expanding their global production capabilities to mitigate trade friction impacts [17] Crop Industry Analysis - Corn prices are expected to rebound in 2025, with a potential strong performance in 2026. The seed industry is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with opportunities arising from transgenic innovations and industry consolidation [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The sales volume of major pig farming companies in China has generally declined in November, with some companies experiencing significant drops, while the industry is focusing on reducing production capacity and costs to improve supply-demand dynamics [1][2][7]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Major pig farming companies, including Tangrenshen and Zhengbang Technology, reported a decline in November sales, with Tangrenshen's sales volume dropping by 26.28% to 456,500 pigs [2]. - Other companies like Muyuan Foods and New Hope also saw sales declines of over 6%, while Wens Foodstuff and Shennong Group maintained stable sales compared to October [1][3]. - The overall sales volume in October was high, and the industry is expected to meet annual targets despite the recent declines [1][4]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - The average price of pork in China as of the end of November was 22.86 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%, but the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous weeks [5]. - Prices remained stable from October to November, with Muyuan Foods reporting prices of 11.55 yuan/kg and 11.56 yuan/kg respectively [4]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Cost Management - The number of breeding sows has decreased to below 40 million, indicating a trend towards reduced production capacity in the industry [7]. - Several companies, including Tangrenshen and Tianbang Foods, have halted new capacity projects to focus on cost reduction and efficiency [8][9]. - The government and market forces are working together to stabilize the supply-demand situation in the pig market, which is expected to lead to more stable prices in the long term [9].

Core Viewpoint - Shennong Group announced the transfer of 100% equity of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Yunnan Shennong Qujing Pig Industry Co., Ltd., to Luo Jiao for a price of 7.6168 million yuan, as the subsidiary has become a performance drag in recent years [1][2]. Financial Performance - Yunnan Shennong Qujing Pig Industry was established in 2009 with a registered capital of 5 million yuan, focusing on commodity pig production, breeding, and technical consulting [1][2]. - The subsidiary reported zero revenue for 2024 and a net loss of 300,700 yuan; in the third quarter of 2025, it incurred a loss of 176,400 yuan, continuing to show no revenue [4]. - As of September 30, 2025, the net asset value decreased from 16.0975 million yuan at the end of 2024 to 7.3332 million yuan [4]. Transaction Details - The transaction price was determined based on the book value of Yunnan Shennong Qujing Pig Industry as of September 30, 2025, following mutual agreement between both parties [5]. - The company stated that the sale of the subsidiary's equity is a comprehensive consideration of its development situation, aiming to improve asset operation efficiency, reduce management costs, and enhance ongoing operational capability [5]. - Upon completion of the transaction, Yunnan Shennong Qujing Pig Industry will no longer be included in the company's consolidated financial statements, with the final impact on the company's profit and loss to be confirmed after annual audit [5].

2025 年 12 月 10 日 生猪：提前交易冬至预期 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11280 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11650 | | 150 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12410 | | 250 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11575 | | 0 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11450 | | 65 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11980 | | 25 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pig farming industry is experiencing accelerated capacity reduction due to weak prices and policy-driven factors, with current prices for fat pigs around 11 yuan/kg and weaned piglets at approximately 200 yuan/head, leading to widespread losses in the industry [1][2] - Historical experience suggests that when fat pig and piglet prices are at low levels, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which is expected to support long-term price increases for pigs [1][2] - The current trend shows a continued reduction in the breeding sow population, with a slight decrease of 0.14% reported by one third-party agency, indicating that large-scale farms are primarily eliminating inefficient capacity while smallholders are exiting the market [2] Group 2 - Investment recommendations include a positive outlook on the pig farming sector, driven by policy and market forces that promote capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance for related companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group [4] - The post-cycle sector is anticipated to benefit from a rebound in pig inventory, which will boost demand for feed and animal health products, with potential profit transmission down the supply chain, highlighting companies like Haida Group and Reap Bio [4] - In the planting sector, the upward trend in grain prices is established, indicating favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, with investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 9, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "Pigs: Basis Logic Regression" [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - No information provided Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 11,380 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; Sichuan's is 11,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; Guangdong's is 12,160 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" are 11,575 yuan/ton, 11,385 yuan/ton, and 11,955 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 190 yuan, 300 yuan, and 150 yuan [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" is 51,761 lots, 108,904 lots, and 25,905 lots respectively, with increases of 17,755 lots, 69,636 lots, and 11,074 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest is 70,601 lots, 151,512 lots, and 78,481 lots respectively, with changes of - 12,739 lots, + 3,297 lots, and + 1,344 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" is - 195 yuan/ton, - 5 yuan/ton, and - 575 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 340 yuan, - 450 yuan, and - 300 yuan. The spread between "Pig 1 - 3" is 190 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan year - on - year; the spread between "Pig 3 - 5" is - 570 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan year - on - year [2] 2. Market Information - Yunnan Shennong registered 85 lots of warehouse receipts on December 4; Guizhou Fuyuan registered 23 lots of warehouse receipts on December 5 [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4]