Stocks close the day higher; Nike earnings top estimates Market Domination Overtime anchor Josh Lipton breaks down the day's trading action for June 26, 2025. S&P 500 and Nasdaq close just a hair shy of all-time records. We break down the market rally, sector action, and what drove stocks higher. Nike reported Q4 earnings. Revenue and earnings per share slightly beat Wall Street expectations, with the stock trading flat after hours. Gross margin decreased by 440 basis points because of tariffs and excess in ...

Core Viewpoint - Nike is set to report earnings, with expectations of a gain of $0.12/share on $10.67 billion in revenue, while the Whisper number suggests a gain of $0.21/share [3] Financial Performance - Nike's earnings have fluctuated over the past few years, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.84 in 2020, $3.56 in 2021, $3.75 in 2022, $3.23 in 2023, and projected EPS of $3.95 in 2024, $2.15 in 2025, and $1.85 in 2026 [4] - The stock has a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 20, which is 0.8x lower than the benchmark S&P 500 [4] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The stock is currently in a long downtrend and trading below its 200-day moving average, indicating a potentially unhealthy market position [6] - The relative strength (RS) rating of the stock is only 14, suggesting very low market performance [6] Tariff Impact - The upcoming earnings report may address the impact of tariffs, as Nike imports its sneakers from abroad, which could significantly affect future guidance [5]

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded several companies' ratings, with Makalot Industrial moving from Equal-weight to Underweight, and Lai Yih Footwear Co Ltd from Equal-weight to Underweight. Conversely, Stella International Holdings Ltd and Crystal International Group Ltd have been downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight [1][28]. Core Insights - The report indicates that US tariffs on apparel and footwear are not finalized, creating uncertainties in the supply chain. However, the risk-reward profile for apparel and footwear OEMs has become more attractive following recent stock corrections, alongside persistent structural positives [1][10]. - A scenario analysis suggests that the apparel and footwear OEMs could face an 8-11% downside risk to 2025 earnings and a 4-5% downside for 2026 earnings under the base case scenario, which factors in a 20% tariff [9][15]. - The long-term competitive edge of OEMs remains intact due to supply-side consolidation, driven by brands' demand for multi-location production and strong customer relationships [11][24]. Summary by Company - **Eclat Textile (1476.TW)**: Maintains Overweight rating with a price target reduced from NT$640 to NT$550. The company has strong exposure to niche and premium products, which are expected to sustain demand [1][33]. - **Makalot Industrial (1477.TW)**: Downgraded to Underweight with a price target reduced from NT$310 to NT$250. The company faces challenges amid tariff uncertainties [1][28]. - **Feng Tay (9910.TW)**: Retains Overweight rating with a price target reduced from NT$168 to NT$145. The company is seen as a proxy for Nike and may benefit from potential brand momentum [1][33]. - **Stella International Holdings Ltd (1836.HK)**: Downgraded to Equal-weight with a price target reduced from HK$20.50 to HK$15.60. Despite structural advantages, the stock has rallied significantly, prompting the downgrade [1][28]. - **Crystal International Group Ltd. (2232.HK)**: Downgraded to Equal-weight with a price target reduced from HK$6.25 to HK$5.30. The company is viewed as fairly valued after a significant price increase [1][28]. - **Lai Yih Footwear Co Ltd (6890.TW)**: Downgraded to Underweight with a price target reduced from NT$320 to NT$270. The company faces competitive pressures that may impact margins [1][28]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the probability of moving supply chains to the US is low due to higher construction costs and a lack of skilled workforce. This suggests that OEMs with diversified production exposure will likely gain market share [12][24]. - The analysis indicates that apparel OEMs are preferred over footwear OEMs due to lower wage costs as a percentage of COGS, providing more flexibility amid order volatility [25][27].

核心观点 【市场回顾】周四 A 股三大指数涨跌互现。截至收盘，上证综指涨 0.01%，深成指跌 0.11%，创业板指涨 0.26%。全市场成交额 13,035 亿元，较上日增加 169 亿元。全市场超 2,300 只个股上涨。板块题材 上，稀土永磁、量子科技、IP 经济、汽车零部件板块涨幅居前；农 业、猪肉板块跌幅居前。 【重要新闻】 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 13 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 【商务部召开新闻发布会介绍中美经贸磋商机制首次会议情况】2025 年 6 月 12 日商务部召开新闻发布会。商务部介绍了中美经贸团队在 英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方就落实两国元首 6 月 5 日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则 一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于稀土问题，中国作 为负责任的大国，充分考虑各国在民用领域的合理需求与关切，依法 依规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审查，已依法批准一定数量的 合规申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作。 研报精选 华 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Huali Group (300979) [4]. Core Insights - Huali Group is a leading global manufacturer of sports shoes, collaborating with renowned brands such as Nike, Converse, and Puma. The company has a strong competitive advantage in the footwear manufacturing sector, with a concentrated ownership structure controlled by the Zhang family, holding 87.48% of the shares. The company has shown steady growth in revenue and net profit, with a CAGR of +13.31% and +19.47% respectively from 2017 to 2024 [1][25]. Company Overview - Huali Group is a global leader in sports shoe manufacturing, established in 1990, and has developed a strong competitive edge in the industry. The company operates production facilities primarily in Vietnam, with additional locations in Indonesia and China. The company’s revenue has increased from 10.01 billion yuan in 2017 to 24.01 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit rising from 1.11 billion yuan to 3.84 billion yuan during the same period [1][25][16]. Industry Analysis - The global sports footwear market is expected to grow steadily, with sales projected to rise from $95.25 billion in 2011 to $168.65 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 4.49%. Factors driving this growth include increased consumer health awareness, technological innovations in products, and the promotion of sports events [2][35]. Company Highlights - **Client Base**: The company has established strong relationships with major clients, with over 80% of sales coming from the top five customers. This high customer concentration creates a strong barrier to entry due to the high switching costs for brands [3]. - **Production Capacity**: Huali Group benefits from cost advantages and plans to expand production capacity, with a projected sale of 223 million pairs of shoes in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.53% [3][10]. - **Efficiency**: The company maintains a leading profitability level compared to peers, with a gross margin of 26.80% and a net margin of 15.98% in 2024, benefiting from low costs and high operational efficiency [10][27]. - **Product Quality**: The company boasts a product quality rate of 99.99% from 2020 to 2024, indicating stable quality and strong delivery capabilities [10]. - **Dividends**: The company has significantly increased its cash dividend payout ratio in recent years, with a projected dividend yield of 4.40% for 2024 [11]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in net profit, with projections of 4.21 billion yuan, 4.84 billion yuan, and 5.50 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The report anticipates a stable dividend payout, supported by strong cash flow and a solid market position [12].

Core Insights - DICK'S Sporting Goods has partnered with Fanatics as the Official Sporting Goods Retail Partner for Fanatics Fest NYC, scheduled for June 20-22, 2025, at the Javits Center [1][2][3] - The collaboration aims to enhance the festival experience with various fan-centered activities, including athlete meet-and-greets and interactive games [3][7] Company Overview - DICK'S Sporting Goods, founded in 1948 and headquartered in Pittsburgh, operates over 850 stores and offers a wide range of sporting goods and outdoor equipment [6] - The company is committed to supporting youth sports through its foundation, donating millions to under-resourced teams and athletes [7] Event Details - Fanatics Fest is described as an immersive festival celebrating sports culture, featuring expanded programming, larger superstores, and exclusive collaborations [4] - DICK'S will present a Kids Zone at the event, offering activities like open play, training sessions, and opportunities to meet professional athletes [3][4] Marketing and Promotion - DICK'S brand ambassador, IShowSpeed, will create content for his YouTube series during the event, highlighting the partnership's promotional efforts [2][3] - The festival will include various giveaways, competitions, and live podcast tapings, enhancing the overall fan experience [7]

Core Insights - Kaltura has won five gold awards at the 2025 Eventex Awards, achieving recognition in every category it entered, highlighting its leadership in AI-driven digital events [1][2] - This marks the third consecutive year that Kaltura Events has received top honors, showcasing its continuous innovation in personalized and impactful digital engagement [2][5] Company Achievements - Kaltura Events is recognized for its all-in-one AI-powered platform that facilitates the creation, hosting, management, and promotion of webinars and virtual events [2][3] - The platform's real-time AI assistant and sentiment analysis features provide actionable insights to enhance attendee engagement [2][3] Key Innovations - The introduction of Kaltura Genie, an AI-powered agent, enhances event engagement by delivering hyper-personalized experiences and responding to attendee inquiries during hybrid events [3][4] - The AI-powered Content Lab identifies key moments from recorded events, generating highlight reels, chaptered summaries, and interactive video quizzes to maximize content ROI [4] Industry Context - The 15th edition of the Eventex Awards received a record 1239 entries from over 50 countries, indicating the growing creativity and innovation within the events industry [5][6] - Major brands such as Volvo, L'Oreal, and Netflix were among the winning entries, reflecting the competitive landscape of event technology [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its FY25 performance, with a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit drop of 41.9% [8] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 134%, exceeding market expectations [8] - The company is adjusting its revenue and gross margin forecasts for FY26-27 and introducing FY28 projections, with expected earnings per share of 0.21, 0.25, and 0.30 RMB respectively [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - FY24A revenue was 28,933 million RMB, while FY25A revenue decreased to 27,013 million RMB, with a projected FY26E revenue of 26,428 million RMB [3] - The gross profit margin for FY25A was 38.4%, down from 41.8% in FY24A, primarily due to increased retail discounts [8] - The net profit margin for FY25A was 4.8%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the previous year [8] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 3,129 million RMB in FY23, with a net cash position of 25.9 million RMB at the end of FY25 [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company has been actively adjusting its store strategy, closing 1,124 stores while opening 258 new ones, resulting in a total of 5,020 stores by the end of FY25 [8] - New brand collaborations are being established, including partnerships with SOAR running and Norrøna, aimed at enhancing market presence in high-end segments [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure on its FY25 performance, with a projected revenue decline of 6.6% to 27,013 million RMB and a significant drop in net profit by 41.9% to 1,286 million RMB [8] - Despite the challenges, the company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, estimated at 134%, exceeding market expectations [8] - The company has introduced new brand collaborations and is adjusting its store strategy to improve sales performance [8] Financial Performance Summary - FY24A revenue was 28,933 million RMB, with a 6.9% year-on-year growth, while FY25A revenue is projected at 27,013 million RMB, reflecting a 6.6% decline [3] - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4% in FY25, primarily due to increased retail discounts [8] - The net profit margin for FY25 is expected to decline to 4.8%, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous year [8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for FY26 is projected to be 0.21 RMB, with a target price of 3.45 HKD based on a 15x PE valuation [3][9] Operational Insights - The company closed 1,124 stores in FY25, ending the year with 5,020 stores, while the total sales area decreased by 12.4% [8] - The company has initiated new brand partnerships, including SOAR running and Norrøna, to enhance its market presence [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise to 24,300 points due to improved trade relations between China and the US, with tariffs on US imports from China reduced from 145% to 30% and on Chinese imports from the US reduced from 125% to 10% for a period of 90 days [2] - The Chinese government is set to introduce a series of financial policies in May to stabilize the market and boost investor confidence, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools [2] Macro Focus - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority and eight other departments proposed increasing financing support for small and micro enterprises [4] - The US 20-year Treasury auction showed weak demand, with the yield reaching a record high of 5.047% [11] - The European Central Bank noted a fundamental shift in market perceptions regarding US dollar assets [11] Corporate News - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (1276) priced its shares at a maximum of 44.05 HKD, raising approximately 9.9 billion HKD [12] - Baidu Group (9888) reported an 8% decline in adjusted profit for Q1, which was better than expected, with total revenue of 32.45 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.98% [12] - Xiaopeng Motors (9868) narrowed its adjusted loss to 430 million RMB in Q1, exceeding expectations, with total revenue of 15.811 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 141% [12] - Bilibili (9626) plans to issue 500 million USD in convertible senior notes [12] Sector Outlook - The shipping and export sectors are expected to benefit from the reduction of tariffs between China and the US, leading to increased shipping activity [9] - Chinese financial stocks are likely to see positive impacts from new public fund regulations that guide asset allocation closer to the CSI 300 index [9] - Domestic demand stocks are anticipated to improve as the trade war eases, potentially boosting economic growth in China [9] Economic Indicators - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by 32% year-on-year in the first 18 days of May, with a market penetration rate of 52% [10] - Macau saw a year-on-year increase of 18.9% in inbound tourists in April, totaling approximately 3.09 million visitors [10]