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Global Markets Strategy 24 February 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy Eye on "Brittle Youth" spending The term "Brittle Youth" (脆皮青年) broadly refers to young adults in Mainland China facing stressful work-life balance ...

Summary of Haidilao International Holding Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Current Stock Price**: HK$17.51 (as of February 25, 2026) - **New Price Target**: HK$21.50 (up from HK$17.50) [4][5] Key Points Growth Outlook - Haidilao is entering a new growth cycle after a multi-year stabilization phase since 2022, with signs of stronger earnings potential and room for multiple expansion [3][10] - Expected same-store sales growth (SSSG) to turn positive in 2026, driven by recovery in average selling price (ASP) and table turnover [4][10] - Store expansion is anticipated to resume, with a long-term goal of a 2,000 store network, representing a 40% increase from current levels [12][10] Financial Projections - Base case EPS CAGR projected at 27% through 2027, with revenue growth of approximately 10% annually [4][28] - Bull case scenario suggests a 44% EPS CAGR through 2027, with a potential stock price of HK$42, indicating ~140% upside [5][29] - Bear case estimates a stock value of HK$11, indicating ~35% downside, but still a solid cash generation [30] Macro and Competitive Environment - China's macroeconomic backdrop is improving, transitioning from deflation to "lowflation," which supports consumer spending [10][18] - Easing competition in the hotpot segment, with a 14% decline in total hotpot restaurant count in 2025, reducing low-end competition [21][20] - Government policies are prioritizing consumption growth, particularly in services and offline retail, which benefits mid-price dining brands like Haidilao [19][59] Management Changes - Founder Zhang Yong's return as CEO in January 2026 marks a strategic pivot towards faster execution and renewed expansion [10][22] - Zhang's leadership is expected to enhance growth and innovation, focusing on a multi-brand strategy and new brand incubation [23][65] Operational Efficiency - Haidilao has implemented cost control measures that have improved operating margins, with restaurant-level operating margins recovering to 13-14% [24][87] - The company has room for further margin enhancement, as its gross margin is still lower than that of peers despite its larger scale [92][94] - Strong operating leverage is evident, with a 1% increase in ASP potentially leading to a 4-5% increase in net profit [80][81] Risks and Considerations - External risks include CPI trends and competition from delivery platforms, which may impact dine-in traffic [36] - Internal risks involve monitoring same-store sales growth and management's strategic execution [36] Conclusion - Haidilao is positioned for a significant turnaround with a compelling risk-reward profile, driven by macroeconomic improvements, management changes, and operational efficiencies. The stock is recommended as a preferred pick within the China consumer sector [5][10][72]

大摩闭门会-春节消费是分化起点还是整体拐点？ 20260227 摘要 春节期间零售餐饮消费同比提升 5.7%，但"人气旺、理性消费"特征 依旧，价格敏感度高，"以价换量"仍是主线。宏观上，通缩缓慢修复， 地产负财富效应持续，消费反弹受限。 市场预期消费板块盈利与估值触底，2026 年销售收入增速预期与 2025 年持平，估值稳定在 16 倍左右。盈利预期或有小幅下修，但整体趋稳， 部分子板块盈利有望在一季报后上修。 2026 年关注四类结构性机会：线下服务消费修复（旅行、酒店、餐饮、 啤酒），价格触底后边际修复（餐饮、啤酒、体育用品、化妆品、白 酒），上游供给收缩带来的供需再平衡（乳制品），以及海外增长机会 （内容出海、传统服饰 OEM）。 海底捞春节翻台率超预期，同比增长 5%，中期看好同店销售改善与经 营杠杆释放。宏观环境改善叠加出游需求，行业有望回归开店与经营正 循环，EPS CAGR 预计 2025-2027 年达 27%，股息率约 5%提供底部 保护。 Q&A 2026 年春节假期消费数据整体呈现何种特征，是否意味着 2026 年消费进入 向上拐点？ 2026 年下半年有望出现边际价格改善。第三，上 ...

股 票 研 究 重申黄金珠宝和旅游出行的投资机会 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 商社行业周报（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 赵国振(分析师) | 021-38031044 | zhaoguozhen@gtht.com | S0880524030006 | 本报告导读： 国际局势动荡，黄金珠宝与部分大宗交易公司有望重估。继续看好旅游出行景气恢 复。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 风险提示：消费复苏不及预期、宏观经济波动风险、市场竞争加剧。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情 绪价值和体验》2026.02.26 社会服务业《史上最长春节假期，文旅板块景气 度高》2026.02.23 社会服务业《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋 缓》2026 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 重申黄金珠宝和旅游出行的投资机会 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 商社行业周报（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 赵国振(分析师) | 021-38031044 | zhaoguozhen@gtht.com | S0880524030006 | 本报告导读： 国际局势动荡，黄金珠宝与部分大宗交易公司有望重估。继续看好旅游出行景气恢 复。 业 投资要点： 风险提示：消费复苏不及预期、宏观经济波动风险、市场竞争加剧。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情 绪价值和体验》2026.02.26 社会服务业《史上最长春节假期，文旅板块景气 度高》2026.02.23 社会服务业《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋 缓》20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the hot pot industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [5]. Core Insights - The hot pot industry is experiencing a shift towards value growth, with regional flavors and small hot pot formats driving new growth [1]. - The industry is projected to grow from approximately 619.9 billion yuan in 2024 to 659.9 billion yuan in 2025, and is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan by 2029 [7][8]. - Consumer behavior is becoming more rational, with a focus on "value for money," leading to a shift in average spending towards mid-range price points [13][14]. - The rise of the "lonely economy" is contributing to the growth of small hot pot formats, with the market expected to reach 40 billion yuan by 2025 [15][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The hot pot industry is the leading category in restaurant innovation and growth, with a steady expansion in scale [7]. - The number of hot pot outlets is expected to peak at 545,000 in 2024 before declining to 470,000 in 2025 due to increased competition [8]. Consumer Trends - The average spending on hot pot is shifting towards lower price ranges, with the mainstream price range (61-100 yuan) expected to account for 51% of consumption by 2025 [13]. - The demand for diverse ingredients and flavors is driving changes in supply, with new types of hot pot bases and regional ingredients becoming popular [14]. Market Dynamics - The emergence of new hot pot categories, such as Yunnan wild mountain hot pot and seafood market hot pot, is diversifying the market [11]. - The small hot pot segment is gaining traction, with a projected market size of 40 billion yuan and an estimated 48,000 outlets by 2025 [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities that can offer diverse bases and pre-prepared products, specifically highlighting Yihai International and Anjuke Foods as key players [7][22].

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain a balanced growth and value style as it approaches the "Two Sessions" in March, with sectors sensitive to macro policies like real estate and cyclical industries showing potential for marginal improvement [1] - The market is projected to transition from a policy-driven phase to a fundamental-driven phase by mid to late April, with potential pressure on market sentiment if corporate earnings reports fall short of expectations [1] - Current market conditions indicate ample liquidity and rising policy expectations, making it suitable to moderately position in sectors with safety margins and high sensitivity to policy changes while awaiting new catalysts [1] Group 2 - The recommended stocks for March 2026 include Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, which is expected to benefit from rising tin and antimony prices due to its strong resource endowment and clear growth path [18] - Lu'an Huanneng is highlighted for its high proportion of spot coal sales, which provides good earnings elasticity during coal price upcycles, alongside low current industry inventory levels [18] - Industrial Fulian is noted for its deep ties with leading clients and its role as a core manufacturer for AI server OEMs, with expected high growth rates in earnings [18] Group 3 - Key financial data for the recommended stocks includes Huaxi Nonferrous Metals with an EPS forecast of 2.45 yuan for 2026 and a PE ratio of 26, indicating a strong growth outlook [21] - Lu'an Huanneng is projected to have an EPS of 1.01 yuan for 2026 with a PE ratio of 15, reflecting its favorable valuation [21] - Ningde Times is expected to achieve an EPS of 19.99 yuan for 2026 with a PE ratio of 17, indicating significant growth potential in the power equipment sector [21]

现在的深圳，含"港"量已经严重超标了！ 如果你周末去龙华山姆或者是福田星河COCO Park走一圈，闭上眼，满耳朵都是熟悉的港式粤语；睁开 眼，满大街都是拉着超大号行李箱、背着双肩包、走路生风的"特种兵"。 行李箱里的"差价战争" 如果你在深圳北站或者福田口岸观察那些步履匆匆的港人，你会发现某种奇特的统一性：每个人手里几 乎都攥着山姆的烤鸡、整箱的瑞士卷，或者那桶标志性的大青柠汁。 行李箱里塞满的不是名表皮包，而是鲍师傅的糕点、卷纸，甚至是沉甸甸的洗洁精。 为什么？因为差价在尖锐地咆哮。 周五下午5点下班，5点半就能坐在深圳的海底捞里逗弄着送给小朋友的玩偶。 几十块钱的洗牙，一百块出头的美甲，两三百块就能泡上一整天的洗浴中心——这在动辄两三百港币起 步的香港美甲店面前，简直是降维打击。 这不仅仅是"贪便宜"，而是一种久违的"获得感"。 当香港居民发现同样的港币购买力，在深圳能从"缩手缩脚"变成"闭眼盲入"，消费行为的变迁就成了不 可逆的物理反应。 深圳的商家早已看透了这一点，跨境巴士专线直接拉到超市门口，这种定向捕获的姿态，精准地击中了 港人的心。 在香港，一份普通的牙齿CT检查可能要花掉你800到1000港 ...

Famous ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry has issued a stark warning regarding the structural integrity of Chinese technology stocks, cautioning that most investors do not actually own the companies they believe they are betting on.The ‘Cayman Shell’ VulnerabilityIn a series of recent posts on X and his Substack, Burry—who famously predicted the 2008 housing market crash—detailed a critical legal flaw in the Hong Kong market.He noted that for nearly all major Chinese firms, excluding outliers like BYD or Ha ...