执业证书编号：S0740522030001 Email：hect@zts.com.cn 分析师：赖思琪 火锅行业：全面转向价值增长，地域风味及小火锅带动新增量 执业证书编号：S0740525090001 Email：laisq@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 128 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 44,614.24 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 44,003.89 | 食品饮料 证券研究报告/行业专题报告 2026 年 02 月 27 日 | 评级： 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：何长天 | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 20 ...

春节过后，星光夜市的人流依旧热闹非常。 与熙攘嘈杂的客流形成鲜明对比的是，春节后的西双版纳告庄西双景，民宿价格正在经历一场自由落 体。 "上周1000多元的房价，昨天跌到了400多元，再过几天就100出头了。生意实在太难干了。"跟一旁的网 红餐厅排队100米的"盛况"相比，这位从业者的感慨，"人家在线上投入得多，砸了钱去投流，我们春节 期间有好多差评，因为客人太多我们只有2个人服务不过来，引来了用户的吐槽。"，老板短短几句话就 道尽了旅游目的地的季节性焦虑。 而在海南，另一幕荒诞剧正在上演：返程机票价格从入岛的300多元暴涨至万元的天价，经济舱售罄、 公务舱难求，游客戏称有去无回。 春节后的西双版纳和海南，实则构成了同一枚硬币的两面。旅游消费的"口红效应"正在显现，但消费逻 辑已发生根本性迁移，人们不再为占有买单，却愿意为体验支付溢价。在经济下行周期，人们压缩了房 车等大宗消费，却在短途旅行上展现出惊人的支付意愿。 01 现象与悖论，当高储蓄遇见报复性出游 高储蓄与旅游热的悖论背后，是一个被忽视的事实，中国人的消费篮子正在经历一场静默的革命。这场 革命的第一个战场，就是住与行的脱钩。 公开数据显示，2024年 ...

■财 神爷拼豆。 为棉花娃娃买新衣，给偶像做周边，年轻人买年货有了新逻辑 新年主题盲盒、"骏马鸿图"造型乐高、财神爷手工拼豆、棉花娃娃的新衣、各式自制周边……这些新颖 别致的商品与物件，正悄然跻身当代年轻人的春节年货清单。如今，春节被注入了鲜明的时代气 息，"情价比"正悄然超越性价比，成为新的消费风向标。 ■棉 花娃娃的新衣服。 种种迹象表明，在当下年轻人买年货时，"情价比"——即情感共鸣、个性彰显与社交满足所带来的价值 ——正悄然超越传统的"性价比"。情绪价值、社交体验与个性表达，共同构筑起这一轮消费新潮流的核 心。 ■阿琳为棉花娃娃买了新衣服。 ■阿琳为棉花娃娃打造了"新房子"。 新观察 "所爱"即年货，年轻人春节消费看重"情价比" 新快报记者在春节前走访广州街头发现，商场货架与线上平台中出现了大批充满创意与个性的新潮"年 货"：红色喜庆包装的IP盲盒、寓意吉祥的"财神爷"手工拼豆、契合马年主题的"骏马鸿图"乐高、印 有"心想事成""逢考必过""顺"等祝福语的新年贺卡，共同烘托出别具一格的年味。 这股新风不仅体现在实体商品上，更延伸至年轻人的数字化生活与个性化表达中。购买游戏中的马年限 定皮肤、挑选精致的 ...

报告预测了2026年中国快消品产业趋势：政策托底发力增速稳中趋慢，2026年将是快消品慢增长的一 年，市场存在诸多挑战；产品聚焦健康和功能，随着消费者对健康意识的提升，低负担、功能性产品的 需求持续增长，产品创新也聚焦"健康属性+功能价值"，力求满足消费者日益多样化和精细化的需 求。"情价比"当道解锁消费新内核，"情价比"成为核心消费标尺，近六成青年明确表示愿意为情绪价值 买单。分渠分品与大单品协同发力，在强势渠道做好分渠分品之外，快消品品牌还是要在全渠道打造黄 金大单品，从而维护品牌声誉，展现规模优势，巩固市场地位。 记者日前从"前瞻2026第26届快消品高层年会"上获悉，东方快消品中心发布了《2026中国快消品产业年 度报告》，揭示了2026年中国快消品行业发展的10大发展新趋势。 报告显示，2025年营收增长的大快消企业占比为34.8%；有28.2%的被调查企业表示2025年营收与上年 同期基本持平；剩下的37.0%快消品企业2025年的营收少于上年同期，营收下降的企业数量较上年多了 1.2个百分点；2025年中国快消品行业总体呈现温和增长的态势。 此外，即时零售最受青睐零食集合、会员店、折扣店共塑渠道 ...

《2026中国快消品产业年度报告》发布。 "前瞻2026：第26届快消品高层年会"2月10日在沪举行。东方快消品中心在会上发布的《2026中国快消品产业年度报告》（以下简称《报告》）显示，据 调查，2025年营收增长的快消品企业占比为34.8%，28.2%的被调查企业表示2025年营收与上年同期基本持平，37%快消品企业2025年的营收少于上年同 期。总体上看，去年国内快消品行业呈现温和增长的态势。 《报告》提到，39.2%的受访快消品企业高管对2026年的发展保持乐观，47.1%的高管对2026年持中性谨慎态度，13.7%的高管对2026年行业预期不乐观。 许多受访高管认为，2026年将是快消品慢增长的一年，市场存在诸多挑战。 《报告》还提到，2026年即时零售行业规模或破万亿元，抖音入局使竞争升级为持久战，消费者需求从"快、省"转向"快、省、好"。零食集合店正以爆发 式态势成为快消品市场的重要增长渠道。以山姆、麦德龙、开市客为代表的会员店体系也增长迅速。 从流量驱动转向心智驱动 《报告》提出了2026中国快消品10大发展趋势，分别是：政策托底发力，增速稳中趋慢；产品聚焦健康和功能；"情价比"当道，解锁消费 ...

过年新选择□四川日报全媒体记者 赵张冬"正月初二带爸妈去自贡看灯会。"今年春节，成都市民 张先生准备把父母从老家接到身边，陪他们来一场川南春节民俗光影之旅。他的选择，是当下反 向旅游热潮的生动缩影——传统"子女返乡"的单向团圆格局正在被"反向过年""异地团圆"模式打 破。随着马年春节临近，越来越多家庭选择告别同质化过年，或接长辈团圆，或与亲朋好友奔赴 他乡反向旅游，勾勒出一幅兼具烟火气与新鲜感的旅游出行消费新图景。"反向过年"打破传统格 局美团旅行数据显示，2月，"反向过年"的机票预订量同比增长84%，北京、上海、成都等城市跻 身热门目的地前列。不少四川游客放弃传统旅游路线，选择小众目的地解锁新体验。"在网上看到 揭阳的英歌舞非遗表演，很有感染力。"成都市民袁女士一家选择春节期间前往广东揭阳，"不仅 机票价格划算，还能深度感受当地文化。"数据显示，春节期间揭阳的机票预订量同比增长 166%，成都正是主要客源地之一。冰雪旅游是今年春节出行的另一热点，"南北互换"的出行格局 愈发明显。携程发布的预测报告显示，用户近期关于春节旅游的提问中，以哈尔滨、雪乡、长白 山、漠河为代表的北方城市/景区相关提问占比较去年春节前 ...

Core Insights - The report by Hema outlines a significant shift in China's consumption landscape, highlighting the movement of consumer spending from first-tier cities to emerging markets, indicating a trend of "consumption equality" and a redefinition of quality of life [1][7] Group 1: Emerging Market Trends - Emerging cities are experiencing a transformation in consumption patterns, with a growing interest in health foods, coffee culture, outdoor activities, and artistic pursuits, which were previously associated with first-tier cities [3][5] - The "Box District Index" introduced in the report measures commercial vitality in emerging cities, showing indices like 171 for Shijiazhuang, 141 for Xuzhou, and 127 for Linyi, all significantly above the national average [7] - The demand for quality consumption in emerging cities is surging, with consumers seeking products and services that enhance their lifestyle and reflect individuality [6][12] Group 2: Health and Emotional Value in Consumption - Consumers are increasingly purchasing items that carry emotional significance, health benefits, and aesthetic appeal, moving beyond basic necessities [8][10] - The concept of "emotional value" is becoming a new standard for consumption, with consumers seeking products that provide comfort and self-affirmation in their busy lives [10][11] - Health-conscious products are gaining traction, with organic tea oil sales increasing by 40% in certain regions, reflecting a shift towards actionable health consumption [11] Group 3: Evolution of Consumption Spaces - The nature of consumption spaces is evolving from mere transaction points to multifaceted environments that blend shopping, experience, and social interaction [13][15] - Retail giants are adapting to the demand for experiential and social shopping environments, with traditional malls incorporating diverse activities to enhance customer engagement [15][16] - Hema is leveraging innovative service systems to integrate online and offline experiences, transforming physical spaces into vibrant commercial hubs [16]

Core Insights - The hot pot industry is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated market size of approximately 619.9 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 659.9 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a sustained high growth rate [1] - The number of hot pot establishments in China has reached 431,000 as of December 4, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.59% [3] - Regional hot pot varieties are gaining traction, with platforms like Douyin amplifying local flavors through short videos and live streaming, leading to a nationwide consumption trend [5] Market Growth and Trends - The Sichuan-Chongqing hot pot remains dominant, holding a 57.8% market share, although its overall share has decreased by 3% due to the emergence of niche categories [3] - The rise of regional hot pot opportunities is evident, with specific orders from Yunnan, Beijing, and seafood hot pots increasing by 0.49%, 0.61%, and 0.41% respectively [5] - The hot pot industry is entering a new phase of refined and value-driven growth, with consumer preferences shifting towards mid-range pricing and a focus on emotional value [14][16] Consumer Behavior - The concept of "emotional price ratio" is becoming a key driver in consumer choices, with social needs accounting for 46.72% of hot pot consumption demand [16] - There is a notable increase in "one-person meal" scenarios, with small hot pot orders growing from approximately 1.57 million in January 2025 to about 2.9 million by October 2025 [18] - The average spending in the hot pot sector is shifting towards more affordable options, with the mainstream price range (61-100 yuan) expected to reach 51% by 2025 [14] Digital Transformation - Douyin has become an essential platform for hot pot businesses, with a 69% increase in transaction value and a 78% rise in order volume from January to October 2025 [20] - Live streaming has emerged as a significant growth engine, with exposure rates increasing by 150.37% and transaction values rising by 53.21% during the same period [22] - Hot pot brands are leveraging Douyin's resources for brand exposure, influencer partnerships, and participation in platform events to drive sales [24][26] Industry Evolution - The hot pot industry is transitioning from homogeneous competition to value-driven differentiation, focusing on product quality, cultural significance, and consumer experience [28] - The integration of hot pot with cultural tourism is enhancing local economies and promoting cultural heritage, as seen in events like the "Kunming Mushroom Festival" [29] - The industry's growth is characterized by a comprehensive competition model that includes ingredient quality, cultural depth, experiential dining, and collaborative industry efforts [29]

Core Insights - The article highlights the unexpected success of KAYOU, a leading card game manufacturer in China, in the stationery market, particularly with its neutral pens that have received positive user feedback [1][4] - The rise of KAYOU's pen products reflects a broader trend in the Chinese market towards consumption upgrades, where consumers seek products that combine aesthetic appeal and practical functionality [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The Z generation's consumption preferences have shifted from "cost-performance ratio" to "emotional value," emphasizing the importance of obtaining emotional satisfaction from purchases [2] - The stationery market in China is projected to reach a scale of 132.2 billion yuan in 2024, showing significant growth from 71.2 billion yuan in 2019, with expectations to exceed 150 billion yuan by 2025 [5] Group 2: KAYOU's Strategy - KAYOU's strategy involves deep development of its IP (intellectual property) in its card products, enhancing aesthetic appeal and offering diverse gameplay, which has become a symbol of identity for consumers [3][4] - The company has successfully integrated its brand identity with quality stationery products, leveraging its established IP connections to penetrate the stationery market [4][5] Group 3: Product Quality and Production - KAYOU's neutral pens are produced with high precision, requiring 5-6 sets of molds and over 1,000 high-precision parts, ensuring superior product quality [8] - The production process includes 24 steps for the pen tip alone, which helps prevent issues like ink skipping, thereby enhancing user experience [8] Group 4: Distribution and Marketing - KAYOU has built a robust retail distribution network that includes supermarkets, specialty stores, and campus shops, facilitating effective product placement and consumer reach [9] - The company has developed a mature online marketing system that supports social media promotion and sales for its stationery products, aligning with the preferences of the Z generation [9][10] Group 5: Brand Positioning - KAYOU aims to establish a strong brand identity that resonates with young consumers, focusing on high-quality, stylish, and emotionally engaging products [9][10] - The company’s approach combines aesthetics, functionality, and emotional value, positioning it well in the evolving consumer landscape [10]

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful entry of KAYOU, a leading card game manufacturer in China, into the stationery market with its neutral pen products, which have received positive user feedback and are seen as a reflection of consumer demand for quality and cultural value in everyday items [1][4][6] Group 1: Market Trends and Consumer Preferences - The Z generation's consumption preferences have shifted from "cost-performance ratio" to "emotional value," emphasizing the importance of aesthetics, functionality, and emotional satisfaction in products [2][3] - KAYOU's strategy involves leveraging its established IP card business to enhance the appeal of its stationery products, creating a multi-dimensional emotional value for consumers through aesthetic and functional design [3][4] Group 2: Product Quality and Manufacturing - KAYOU's neutral pen production involves a complex manufacturing process requiring 5-6 sets of molds and over 1,000 high-precision components, ensuring high product quality that can compete with leading brands [9][11] - The meticulous production process, including 24 production steps for the pen tip, is crucial for achieving a reliable writing experience, which has contributed to KAYOU's positive market reputation [11] Group 3: Distribution and Brand Strategy - KAYOU has established a robust distribution network through its card game business, allowing for effective market penetration and product visibility in both offline and online channels [11][12] - The brand's focus on high-quality, youthful, and companion-like products aligns with the preferences of the Z generation, fostering a strong emotional connection with consumers [11][12] Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - The stationery market in China is projected to reach 132.2 billion yuan in 2024, with KAYOU holding significant market shares in both collectible card and stationery sectors, at 71.1% and 24.3% respectively [4][7] - KAYOU aims to expand its market presence by integrating its product offerings with the evolving demands of consumers, focusing on aesthetics, functionality, and emotional engagement [12]