综合来看，A股地产板块2025年归母净亏损预计在1984.2亿元—1455.0亿元之间，2024年为归母净亏损 1614.0亿元。 连日来，2025年业绩预告进入集中披露期。万科A、招商蛇口等多家地产公司也预告了2025年的整体经 营表现。 记者注意到，多家券商机构在点评房地产业绩预告时指出，尽管2025年房企利润表现仍承压，但市场已 出现积极信号，预计2026年房地产市场有望逐步止跌回稳。 根据中信证券房地产开发和运营板块统计（剔除B股），A股地产板块共有78家企业发布业绩预告或快 报，其中58家公司公告预亏（首亏或续亏），6家公司公告业绩预增，其余18家公司没有发布业绩预 告。 此外，多层次REITs市场建设对房地产板块也形成整体利好。 总结来看，中信证券指出，我国居民部门的现金流量表保持良好，净流入健康向上，这也是未来企业经 营性现金流净流入可能持续修复的底气。政策力推住宅价格止跌，加上商业地产资产增值，相信房地产 板块的主体信用风险已经开始退潮。当行业的主要融资性现金流入，从以信用债（主体负债）为主转向 以项目融资（REITs和物业经营贷等）为主之际，企业资产和负债错配的矛盾就正在得到解决。 投资策略 ...

证券研究报告 关注节后成交走势，三重对比港资房企 向上空间仍存 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：春节后到3月为楼市下一个重要观察节点，优质房企中期维度仍具备性价比。随着近期二手房市场成交回暖，本周市场对地产 关注度仍在升温，但对后续看法呈现分化。我们认为短期随着春节逐步临近，市场成交或趋于回落，节后到3月将是楼市下一个重要观察 节点。从板块投资来看，我们仍维持上周观点，在短期二手房成交淡季不淡、房企业绩压力提前释放、政策端不断释放积极信号等背景 下，中期维度来看优质房企已有一定配置价值。 全年看好港资房企，三重维度对比向上仍有空间。1月港资房企表现靓丽，我们持续提示的新鸿基地产、恒基地产、信和置业单月涨幅达 32.7%、10.6%、15.3%，市场对于香港楼市延续上行逐步形成共识，更关注后续个股空间，我们认为港资房企上行空间仍存：1）以新鸿 基地产为例，目前PB为0.59倍，仍低于业务模式（开发+持有）类似的华润置地（0.72PB），但香港楼市已经企稳，内地楼市仍在探底； 2）上轮香港楼市调整于2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in new home sales, with a significant increase in transaction volumes and areas sold in key cities, indicating a recovery in market demand [5][7] - Local government policies in Guangdong and Nanjing aim to stabilize the real estate market and enhance housing quality, which is expected to support sales growth [14][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of financially stable real estate companies and suggests focusing on leading firms that can effectively navigate market fluctuations [7] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 2.21%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.08%, indicating underperformance of the real estate sector compared to the broader market [4][12] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 23-29, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities reached 23,510 units, a year-on-year increase of 75.2% and a month-on-month increase of 17.1% [5][21] - The total area sold was 2.21 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% and a month-on-month increase of 19.4% [21] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 20,208 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 170.8% but a month-on-month decrease of 3% [32][35] 3. Land Market Supply and Transactions - Land supply for the week was 2,166.4 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, while the average supply price was 1,636 yuan per square meter, up 110.3% year-on-year [6] - Land transactions totaled 1,183.6 million square meters, down 34% year-on-year, with a transaction value of 16.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.7% year-on-year [6] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 5.55 billion yuan in credit bonds during the week, marking a year-on-year increase of 224.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 56.4% [6]

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 01 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 国务院支持旅居项目建设，关注地产板块配置价值 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/1/24-26/1/30） | | | 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.4%、深证成指下跌 1.6%、创业板指下跌 0.1%、沪深 300 上 升 0.1%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：大悦城(+17.1%)、 京能置业(+12.5%)、新城控股(+11.4%)、京投发展(+7.7%)、招商蛇口(+7.1%)，涨跌幅后五 的分别为：华联控股(-14.9%)、西藏城投(-13.6%)、城建发展(-12.9%)、华夏幸福(-11.9%)、 万通发展(-11.5%)。 联系人 板块表现： ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector in A-shares and Hong Kong has shown strong performance, with A-share real estate index rising over 5% during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2025. Despite profit pressures for 2025, there are positive signals indicating a potential stabilization in the market by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Forecast - A total of 78 A-share real estate companies released performance forecasts, with 58 companies expecting losses, 6 companies projecting profit increases, and 18 companies not providing forecasts. The estimated net loss for the A-share real estate sector in 2025 is projected to be between 198.42 billion and 145.5 billion yuan, compared to a net loss of 161.4 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - According to CITIC Securities, the decline in performance reflects the market adjustments over the past few years, but there are emerging positive signals, such as a slight decrease in second-hand housing listings in major cities and increased buyer confidence due to supportive media coverage [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Recovery Signals - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities suggests that the most challenging period for real estate companies may be coming to an end, as the fundamentals of the real estate market are nearing a bottom after over four years of adjustment. New construction starts have decreased by 75% since the peak in 2021, and second-hand housing prices have dropped by 40% since the same peak [2]. - The construction of a multi-level REITs market is seen as a positive factor for the real estate sector, potentially alleviating some of the financial pressures faced by companies [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - CITIC Securities recommends focusing on "operating assets" and emphasizes the advantages of developers with core resources and operational capabilities. The report indicates that the industry is likely to see a recovery in profitability for quality real estate companies sooner and with greater elasticity due to improved market conditions and historical low valuations [5]. - The central government's recent emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market and the positive media coverage are expected to contribute to a more favorable policy environment, further supporting the recovery of the sector [5].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 不动产的价值和价格 ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 核心城市住房不存在系统性过剩，也不仅仅是商品，我们可以从资产视角去探讨定价问题，关 键矛盾在于价值和价格的关系。在低租售比背景下，租金涨幅对持有回报率有决定性作用，如 果中短期内没有明显的租金上涨，那么持有住房资产的回报率仍不及可比利率。房价的短期变 化跟合理价值关系不大，主要取决于边际，尤其是产业政策的扰动，社会预期是分层的，对合 理价值的判断也有差异；在房价经历较长时间和较大幅度的调整之后，自然需求和政策干预， 都有可能带来房价的缓和甚至一定修复。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 不动产的价值和价格 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标对市场 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 杨坪 据中信证券统计，2026年1月29日- 30日，8单总计估值321亿元商业不动产REITs发行挂网，预计涉及募集规模总计315亿元，涉及资本化率在 4.3%-7.2%区间内，涉及运营净收益（NOI）总计16.5亿元（2025年数据，部分项目为年化值）。 连日来，2025年业绩预告进入集中披露期。万科A、招商蛇口等多家地产公司也预告了2025年的整体经营表现。 中信证券认为，在商业不动产REITs推出之后，REITs市场发行审批效率明显提升，优质资产证券化速度明显加快。房地产企业资产负债表得 到夯实，债务负担有所减轻，广大投资者也得以配置优质低波权益资产，分享中国经济增长红利。 本报记者注意到，多家券商机构在点评房地产业绩预告时指出，尽管2025年房企利润表现仍承压，但市场已出现积极信号，预计2026年房地产 市场有望逐步止跌回稳。 总结来看，中信证券指出，我国居民部门的现金流量表保持良好，净流入健康向上，这也是未来企业经营性现金流净流入可能持续修复的底 气。政策力推住宅价格止跌，加上商业地产资产增值，相信房地产板块的主体信用风险已经开始退潮。当行业的主要融资性现金流入，从以信 用债 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The real estate market is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations for stronger policy support [3] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes outperformed new homes, indicating a preference for second-hand properties due to better value [8] - The performance of the real estate sector has improved recently, driven by marginal improvements in transaction data and expectations for policy changes [8] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return compared to the CSI 300 index has been -9%, while the absolute return has been +15% [4] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in core cities showed significant year-on-year growth, while new home transactions remained weak [5][6] Key City Insights - Beijing: Second-hand home transactions increased by 397% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 565% [5] - Shanghai: Second-hand home transactions increased by 806% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 525% [6] - Shenzhen: Second-hand home transactions increased by 15% year-on-year, but new home transactions decreased by 64% [6] National Trends - In 30 major cities, the transaction area for new homes increased by 109% year-on-year, but decreased by 26.66% when adjusted for the Spring Festival [7] - The transaction area for second-hand homes increased by 309% year-on-year, with a 12% increase in cumulative transactions for January [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [8] - It also recommends head intermediary firms like I Love My Home, which are expected to benefit from the increasing share of second-hand home transactions [8]

房地产 2026 年 02 月 01 日 相关研究 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，三条红线政策逐步退场 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/1/24-2026/1/30） 本期投资提示： 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房成交环比回升、二手房环比下降，新房成交推盘比回落。上周 (1.24-1.30)34 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector despite current performance pressures [3][4]. Core Insights - Mainstream real estate companies are forecasting a decline or losses in 2025, but the report suggests that the most challenging period may be coming to an end. The report highlights significant declines in new construction and second-hand housing prices, indicating that the industry is nearing a bottom [3][4]. - The central government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with recent policy statements reflecting a more proactive approach to addressing risks and supporting the sector [3][4]. - While overall performance for mainstream real estate companies is expected to remain under pressure in 2025, the report anticipates a recovery in profitability for quality firms, driven by improved sales and operational performance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report significant losses in 2025, with Vanke A forecasting a loss of 82 billion RMB and China Overseas Development projecting a decline of 20% to 0% in net profit [4][6]. - The report categorizes companies based on expected profit growth rates, with some firms like Binjiang Group and New Town Holdings expected to see slight growth, while others like China Jinmao and Vanke A are projected to incur substantial losses [6][7]. Asset and Credit Impairment - The report details the cumulative asset and credit impairment losses for major firms, indicating that some companies have experienced significant write-downs, with New Town Holdings at 27% and Goldfield Group at 25% of their inventory [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for major real estate companies, showing that many are trading at historical lows in terms of price-to-book ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities [7][8]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the sector is noted, with some companies like Poly Development and Binjiang Group showing varying earnings per share forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7][8].