1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, without the disturbance of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the nickel surplus is expected to slightly narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by another 30,000 tons, intensifying inventory pressure [5][13][98]. - The surplus is concentrating on low - cost deliverable products, which may force nickel prices down to seek support from the cost of the wet - process production line [5][13][98]. - There are potential upward risks in stages. If the macro and industrial sectors resonate in the first half of the year and are accompanied by capital inflows, the upward trend at the end of 2025 may continue. However, if the nickel ore quota increases or the inventory becomes explicit, there may be opportunities for high - altitude short - selling in the second half of the year [5][98] - The recommended trading strategies are a unilateral strategy of rising first and then falling with a rising bottom, and a bull spread strategy for options [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the nickel price shock center shifted down after the trade war, hitting a five - year low in December and then rebounding due to Indonesia's policy. The volatility significantly narrowed compared to the previous year. The annual high - low difference was about 20% [4][9]. - Stainless steel prices followed nickel prices but were more rigidly supported by the cost of Indonesian nickel iron. The terminal demand was weak, showing a narrow - range shock trend with a high - low difference of about 12% throughout the year [4][10] 3.2 Excess Concentration on Low - Cost Deliverable Products, Beware of Indonesia's Policy Risks - **Supply - Side Growth Concentrates on Wet - Process Production Lines, with Fire - Process Production Almost Stagnant** - In 2026, the growth rate of refined nickel is expected to increase to 6.8%, becoming the highest - growth category. China and Indonesia will have new production capacity, while some European and American enterprises will also expand production [18][19]. - The expansion of MHP production capacity conforms to the new - energy orientation, helping to expand production and reduce costs for refined nickel and nickel sulfate. It is conservatively estimated that Indonesia's MHP output will increase by 28% to 570,000 tons in 2026 [27]. - The growth of nickel pig iron (NPI) is almost stagnant. Affected by Indonesia's policy and low profits, the growth rate of Indonesian NPI in 2026 is only expected to be 2.4% [18][34][36]. - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Quota Policy Risks Still Need Attention** - The supply forecast for 2026 is based on the assumption of sufficient nickel ore. In 2026, the quota may be set at 250 million tons, which is lower than the demand. However, there is still flexibility in the later stage [46][49]. - If the quota remains at 250 million tons, Indonesia needs to import 70 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, which will increase the cost of nickel products and may support the bottom of nickel prices [49][52] 3.3 Demand Hard to Find Drivers, with Potential Bright Spots - **Economic Growth Slows, Interest Rate Cuts Benefit the Non - Ferrous Metals Sector** - In 2026, the global economic growth will further slow down. The growth rate of developed economies is expected to be around 1.5%, and that of emerging markets and developing economies is slightly higher than 4% [59]. - China's economy is still at the bottom, and it is expected that fiscal policy tools will play a role in the "15th Five - Year Plan" [59]. - **Stainless Steel Supply and Demand in Tight Balance, Cost Expected to Increase** - In terms of demand, China's stainless steel demand is expected to grow by 4% in 2026. Domestic consumption may be supported by subsidies, while exports may decline [64][65]. - In terms of supply, new production capacity is limited. In 2026, nickel and chromium raw materials may rise, increasing the cost of stainless steel. If demand improves, the price center may move up; otherwise, it may suppress production capacity utilization [68][71] - **The Proportion of Ternary Batteries Stabilizes, and New Productivity Provides Potential Growth Points** - The growth rate of the new - energy vehicle market slows down. In China, due to subsidy withdrawal, the growth rate of new - energy passenger vehicle sales is expected to be 16%. In the overseas market, the US market is weak, while the European market is expected to maintain growth [78][79][83]. - The proportion of ternary batteries has fallen below 20%. Although it faces challenges, it may become a potential growth point from 2027 - 2030 [88][91][93] 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance and Trading Strategy - In 2025, the estimated surplus of primary nickel is 277,000 tons. In 2026, without the impact of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, the surplus is expected to narrow to 245,000 tons, but the refined nickel surplus will increase by 30,000 tons [98][99]. - The trading logic is to consider the continuation of the upward trend at the end of 2025 in the first half of 2026 if the macro and industry resonate. In the second half, consider high - altitude short - selling if the nickel ore quota increases or the inventory becomes explicit [5][98]

Core Viewpoint - Minmetals Resources (01208) has seen a stock price increase of over 5%, currently at HKD 9.11, following the announcement of a significant expansion project at the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana [1] Group 1: Project Announcement - On December 29, Minmetals Resources announced the approval of the feasibility study for the major expansion project at the Khoemacau copper mine [1] - The project aims to increase annual production capacity to 130,000 tons of copper concentrate and over 4 million ounces of associated silver [1] - The expansion will include extending the mining area to the northern part of Zone 5, as well as the Mango and Zeta northeastern deposits, and constructing a new processing plant with an annual capacity of 4.5 million tons [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The total capital expenditure for the project is estimated to be approximately USD 900 million, including related expenditures before 2026 [1] - The expansion is expected to optimize the average C1 cost to below USD 1.60 per pound, a significant reduction from the actual C1 cost of USD 2.05 per pound recorded for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] Group 3: Strategic Importance - This expansion project is a crucial strategic initiative aimed at enhancing the long-term profitability and production capacity of the company's copper asset portfolio [1]

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Securities initiates coverage on China Molybdenum with a "Buy" rating, projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] Company Summary - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of HKD 48.3 billion, HKD 64.5 billion, and HKD 68.7 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 5.6 billion, HKD 10.4 billion, and HKD 12.1 billion for the same years [1] - The company possesses high-quality mining resources, with production capacity from its three major copper mines expected to continue increasing [1] Industry Summary - The copper industry is anticipated to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, driven by declining global copper mine capital expenditure and uncertainties in resource-rich countries' policies [1] - Traditional sectors show resilience, while the rapid development of AI data centers is expected to generate sustained new demand for copper [1] - The copper supply-demand landscape is projected to improve by 2026, alongside expectations of liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve, contributing to a steady rise in copper prices [1]

Group 1 - Jiangxi Copper Company (00358) saw its stock price rise over 9% in early trading, reaching a new high of 44.62 HKD, and is currently trading at 43.78 HKD with a transaction volume of 553 million HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangxi Copper Hong Kong Investment, will acquire all issued and to-be-issued ordinary shares of SolGold plc for a maximum total consideration of up to 764 million GBP, pending shareholder approval and other conditions [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to strengthen the management and optimization of the alumina and copper smelting industries, encouraging mergers and reorganizations among major enterprises in these sectors [2] - Morgan Stanley noted that lower annual copper concentrate processing and refining fees, along with long-term contract concentrate volumes, may lead to a reduction in refined copper production by 2026, which, combined with stable demand, is expected to support copper prices at high levels, benefiting companies like Jiangxi Copper [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of zinc are gradually improving, and zinc prices may recover in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: Overseas, the total production of some overseas mining enterprises from Q1 to Q3 in 2025 was 34.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.24%. The total production in 2024 was 41.928 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.42%. The production of some overseas mining enterprises in the future is expected to have a total increase of 23.27 million tons in 2026 compared with 2025. Domestically, the total production of some domestic mining enterprises is expected to increase by 20.7 million tons in 2026 compared with 2025 [16][34][35]. - **Refined Zinc Supply and Demand**: - **Global**: In 2025E, the global refined zinc production was 14.05 million tons, and the consumption was 13.9 million tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 150,000 tons. In 2026E, the production is expected to be 14.2 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be 14.109 million tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 91,000 tons [116]. - **Domestic**: In 2025E, China's refined zinc production was 6.852 million tons, and the consumption was 7 million tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 107,000 tons. In 2026E, the production is expected to be 6.93 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be 7.05 million tons, with a supply - demand surplus of 80,000 tons [115]. - **Zinc Smelter Capacity**: - **Domestic**: From 2025 - 2026, the total new capacity of domestic mineral zinc smelters was 1.57 million tons, and the total new capacity of recycled zinc smelters was 501,000 tons. The new capacity in 2025 was 1.146 million tons, and the expected new capacity in 2026 was 1.225 million tons [69]. - **Overseas**: The total production of some overseas zinc smelters is expected to increase by 1.88 million tons in 2026 compared with 2025 [71]. 3.2 Market Demand - **Real Estate**: The report presents data on real - estate development investment, commercial housing transaction area, new construction area, and completion area, but no clear trend analysis is provided [75][76]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2025, from January to November, the cumulative fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction was 2.2413413 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.13%. Among them, the power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 10.70%, the transportation, warehousing, and postal industry decreased by 0.10%, and the water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management industry decreased by 6.30% [86]. - **Automobile**: The report shows data on automobile production, new - energy vehicle production, and automobile exports, but no clear trend analysis is provided [94][97][99]. - **White Goods**: In 2025, from January to November, the cumulative production of white goods was 45.78 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.03%. Among them, the air - conditioner production was 24.5361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.60%; the refrigerator production was 9.9342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.20%; and the washing - machine production was 11.3097 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.30% [101]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation No specific content on future outlook and strategy recommendation is provided in the part that meets the requirements.

Core Viewpoint - Minmetals Resources (01208) has seen a significant stock increase of over 5% following the approval of the major expansion project for the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana, which aims to enhance production capacity and optimize costs [1] Group 1: Project Approval and Details - On December 29, Minmetals Resources announced the approval of the feasibility study for the Khoemacau copper mine expansion project and has officially commenced construction [1] - The project aims to increase annual production capacity to 130,000 tons of copper concentrate and over 4 million ounces of associated silver [1] - The expansion will involve extending the mining area to the northern part of Zone 5, as well as the Mango and Zeta northeastern deposits, and constructing a new processing plant with an annual capacity of 4.5 million tons [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The total capital expenditure for the project is estimated to be approximately $900 million, including related expenditures before 2026 [1] - The expansion is expected to enhance the total processing capacity of the mine to over 8 million tons per year [1] - The average C1 cost during the mine's lifespan is projected to be optimized to below $1.60 per pound, a significant reduction from the actual C1 cost of $2.05 per pound recorded for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] Group 3: Strategic Importance - This expansion project is considered a crucial strategic initiative aimed at improving the long-term profitability and production scale of the company's copper asset portfolio [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Minmetals Resources (01208.HK) has increased by over 5%, currently up 5.68% at HKD 9.11 [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 146 million [1]

智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)早盘涨超9%，高见44.62港元，再创上市新高。截至发稿，涨 7.57%，报43.78港元，成交额5.53亿港元。 值得注意的是，国家发改委12月26日发表以《大力推动传统产业优化提升》为题的文章，提及强化氧化 铝与铜冶炼产业的管理及优化布局，并鼓励氧化铝及铜冶炼大型骨干企业实施兼并重组。大摩认为，更 低的年度铜精矿加工费/提炼费价格和长期合同精矿量可能意味着2026年精炼铜产量削减。这些因素结 合需求仍较为稳固，应支撑铜价在高位波动，有利于紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、五矿资源以及江西铜业。 消息面上，江西铜业股份宣布，其全资附属江铜香港投资将以全现金收购索尔黄金（SolGold plc）全部 已发行及将要发行之普通股股本，基于公告日期已发行之索尔黄金股份总数及已授出之购股权（惟江铜 香港投资已持有的索尔黄金股份除外）计算，江铜香港投资根据收购事项将可能支付之最高总对价将不 超过7.64亿英镑。收购事项的完成仍须待索尔黄金股东批准，并须满足或豁免其他条件。 ...

Group 1 - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares rose over 9% in early trading, reaching a new high of 44.62 HKD, and currently trading at 43.78 HKD with a transaction volume of 553 million HKD [1] - Jiangxi Copper's wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangxi Copper Hong Kong Investment, announced a cash acquisition of all issued and to-be-issued ordinary shares of SolGold plc, with a maximum total consideration of up to 764 million GBP [1] - The completion of the acquisition is subject to approval from SolGold shareholders and must meet or be exempt from other conditions [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission published an article emphasizing the optimization and management of the alumina and copper smelting industries, encouraging mergers and reorganizations among major enterprises in these sectors [1] - Morgan Stanley noted that lower annual copper concentrate processing and refining fees, along with long-term contract concentrate volumes, may lead to a reduction in refined copper output by 2026 [1] - These factors, combined with stable demand, are expected to support copper prices at high levels, benefiting companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Minmetals Resources, and Jiangxi Copper [1]

Core Viewpoint - Minmetals Resources (01208) has approved the feasibility study for the significant expansion project at the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana, aiming to enhance annual production capacity to 130,000 tons of copper concentrate and over 4 million ounces of associated silver [1] Group 1: Project Details - The expansion project will extend the mining area to the northern part of Zone 5, as well as the Mango and Zeta northeastern deposits [1] - A new processing plant with an annual capacity of 4.5 million tons will be constructed, increasing the total processing capacity of the mine to over 8 million tons per year [1] - The total capital expenditure for the project is estimated at approximately $900 million, including related expenditures before 2026 [1] Group 2: Financial Impact - The project is expected to produce the first batch of copper concentrate in the first half of 2028 [1] - The average C1 cost during the mine's lifespan is projected to be optimized to below $1.60 per pound, a significant reduction from the actual C1 cost of $2.05 per pound recorded for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] - This expansion is a strategic initiative aimed at enhancing the long-term profitability and production capacity of the company's copper asset portfolio [1]