消息面上，江西铜业股份宣布，其全资附属江铜香港投资将以全现金收购索尔黄金（SolGold plc）全部 已发行及将要发行之普通股股本，基于公告日期已发行之索尔黄金股份总数及已授出之购股权（惟江铜 香港投资已持有的索尔黄金股份除外）计算，江铜香港投资根据收购事项将可能支付之最高总对价将不 超过7.64亿英镑。收购事项的完成仍须待索尔黄金股东批准，并须满足或豁免其他条件。 值得注意的是，国家发改委12月26日发表以《大力推动传统产业优化提升》为题的文章，提及强化氧化 铝与铜冶炼产业的管理及优化布局，并鼓励氧化铝及铜冶炼大型骨干企业实施兼并重组。大摩认为，更 低的年度铜精矿加工费/提炼费价格和长期合同精矿量可能意味着2026年精炼铜产量削减。这些因素结 合需求仍较为稳固，应支撑铜价在高位波动，有利于紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、五矿资源以及江西铜业。 江西铜业股份(00358)早盘涨超9%，高见44.62港元，再创上市新高。截至发稿，涨7.57%，报43.78港 元，成交额5.53亿港元。 智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)早盘涨超9%，高见44.62港元，再创上市新高。截至发稿，涨 7.57%，报43.78港元 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 市场缺乏进一步指引，贵金属动量趋势强劲 价格再创新高 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（12 月 22 日-12 月 26 日），有色板块本周上涨 6.43%，在全部一级 行业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中工业金属板块上 涨 7.07%，能源金属板块上涨 6.66%，小金属板块上涨 6.16%，金属新材料板块上 涨 4.93%，贵金属板块上涨 4.06%。工业金属方面，本周海外受到圣诞假期影响流 动性低迷，数据层面好坏参半，市场缺乏进一步有效指引，本周市场交易更多跟随 惯性动量，受美元继续下行支撑，本周工业金属价格维持上行驱动。贵金属方面， 本周贵金属价格维持上行驱动。基于上述流动性低迷的现状，以及 LME 白银租赁 利率的持续高企，沪银同时出现了期现溢价以及内外盘溢价，投资者需警惕随着海 外流动性回归，以及 26 年 1 月 8 日至 1 月 15 日彭博 BCOM 商品指数调仓引发的 潜在回调风险。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：TC 价格落地沪铜维持惯性上涨突破 10 ...

2025 年 12 月 29 日 烧碱：短期反弹高度有限，关注 1 月交割压力 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 | 山东现货32碱折盘面 | 基差 | | 2268 | 710 | 2219 | -49 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，12 月 26 日山东市场整体表现一般，部分企业走货不佳，价格继续走跌。 【市场状况分析】 12 月 26 日国家发展改革委产业发展司在《大力推动传统产业优化提升》一文中指出，对氧化铝、铜冶 炼等强资源约束型产业，强化管理、优化布局，防止盲目投资和无序建设；并鼓励大型骨干企业实施兼并重 组等。消息带动氧化铝大幅反弹，烧碱作为氧化铝的原料之一，跟随反弹。 从基本面看，烧碱仍是高产量、高库存格局。需求端，氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压 制对烧碱的囤货，同时非铝下游面临季节性刚需 ...

本公司控股股东、实际控制人、董事、高级管理人员承诺：如本次交易所披露或提供的信息涉嫌虚假记 载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，被司法机关立案侦查或者被中国证监会立案调查的，在形成调查结论以 前，不转让在该上市公司拥有权益的股份，并于收到立案稽查通知的两个交易日内将暂停转让的书面申 请和股票账户提交上市公司董事会，由董事会代其向证券交易所和证券登记结算机构申请锁定；未在两 个交易日内提交锁定申请的，授权董事会核实后直接向证券交易所和证券登记结算机构报送本人或本公 司的身份信息和账户信息并申请锁定；董事会未向证券交易所和证券登记结算机构报送本人或本公司的 身份信息和账户信息的，授权证券交易所和证券登记结算机构直接锁定相关股份。如调查结论发现存在 违法违规情节，本人或本公司承诺锁定股份自愿用于相关投资者赔偿安排。 截至本预案摘要签署日，与本次交易相关的审计、评估工作尚未完成。本公司全体董事、高级管理人员 保证本预案摘要所引用的相关数据的真实性和合理性。相关资产经审计的财务数据和经备案的评估结果 将在本次交易的重组报告书中予以披露。 本预案摘要所述事项并不代表中国证监会、上海证券交易所对该证券的投资价值或者投资者收益作出实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry in Anhui Province (2025-2027) (Draft for Comments)" emphasizes a market-driven approach with government guidance, aiming to enhance the gold industry through various strategic initiatives [1] Group 1 - The plan focuses on building a "strong gold province" by strengthening exploration, increasing reserves, and boosting production [1] - It promotes the integration of mining operations and encourages mergers and acquisitions within the industry [1] - The initiative aims to enhance technological innovation and smart transformation in the gold sector [1] Group 2 - The plan seeks to improve resource security, high-end supply levels, and the efficiency of green development and utilization [1] - It emphasizes the importance of ensuring essential safety measures within the industry [1] - The overall goal is to promote the scale, high-end, intelligent, green, and safe development of the gold industry, leading to improved quality and efficiency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by government policies aimed at regulating competition and promoting value reconstruction, with Tongwei Co., Ltd. positioned as a leading player in this shift [1][3][9]. Industry Overview - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with multiple departments, held a meeting to address the photovoltaic industry's competitive order, aiming to eliminate outdated production capacity and establish a pricing monitoring mechanism [1]. - The implementation of the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Central Financial Committee's stance against "disorderly low-price competition" marks a critical turning point for the industry, shifting focus from price wars to value enhancement [1][3]. Company Performance - Tongwei Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 40.509 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a significant market share in polysilicon and solar cells, maintaining its position as the industry leader [2]. - The company achieved a polysilicon sales volume of 161,300 tons and a solar cell sales volume of 49.89 GW, continuing to lead globally [2]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry has experienced a "price avalanche," with prices falling below cash costs, leading to a situation where increased production results in losses [3]. - Recent policies have established a price floor for products like silicon materials and modules, aiming to curb "suicidal pricing" and restore reasonable price levels [3][4]. Policy Impact - The government's focus on "regulating competition and encouraging consolidation" is expected to accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacity and create a new market structure driven by leading companies and technological advancements [4]. - The policies are anticipated to benefit Tongwei by reducing low-quality competition and supporting its market share consolidation [4]. Price Recovery - Since the second quarter of 2025, the photovoltaic industry has seen a recovery in prices across the supply chain, supported by policies limiting low prices and inventory reduction [6]. - The price of polysilicon has shown a significant increase, with the latest data indicating a price range of 45,000 to 52,000 yuan per ton, marking an increase of 3.37% [6]. Capital Market Response - The positive changes in the photovoltaic industry have been reflected in the capital markets, with significant stock price increases for leading companies like Tongwei [8]. - The concentration of market share among the top five silicon material companies has reached nearly 80%, which is expected to stabilize industry volatility and enhance profitability for leading firms [8]. Future Outlook - The ongoing value reconstruction driven by policies, market dynamics, and company strategies positions Tongwei as a key player in defining the new cycle of the photovoltaic industry [9]. - The company's dual focus on "green agriculture and green energy" allows it to benefit from the long-term growth of the photovoltaic sector while providing stable cash flow to mitigate cyclical fluctuations [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chongqing Municipal Economic and Information Commission is soliciting opinions on the "Chongqing Intelligent Connected New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain 'Yuchain Zhqing' Action Plan (2025-2027)" aimed at fostering a robust ecosystem for the intelligent connected new energy vehicle sector [1] Group 1: Industry Development Initiatives - The plan emphasizes the acceleration of nurturing quality entities within the industry [1] - A tripartite service mechanism involving the city, districts, and vehicle manufacturers will be established to support key component enterprises in market expansion, technology research and development, and corporate financing [1] - Encouragement is given to leading companies in areas such as intelligent cockpits, electric drive, thermal management, electric steering, electric braking, and range extenders to pursue investments, mergers, and acquisitions to expand the industry chain and enhance product variety [1] Group 2: Focus on Small and Medium Enterprises - The initiative aims to promote quality small and medium enterprises to focus on their strengths in technology innovation, product upgrades, and brand building [1] - The goal is to cultivate a number of "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" small giant enterprises within the sector [1] - By 2027, the plan targets the formation of 400 specialized and innovative enterprises and 80 small giant enterprises in the intelligent connected new energy vehicle field in Chongqing [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing increasing concentration, driven by government policies aimed at regulating competition and halting high-interest financial practices [1][2] - The market has entered a phase of stock competition, with leading companies like BYD and Tesla China benefiting from technological and brand advantages, while weaker firms face shrinking survival space [1][2] - Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are seen as essential for enhancing competitiveness and addressing the fragmented nature of the industry, drawing lessons from international experiences [2][3] Group 1 - The government is implementing strict regulations to curb disorderly price competition and has halted high-interest financial policies, reshaping the competitive landscape of the automotive industry [1] - The "Matthew Effect" is evident, where stronger companies continue to grow while weaker ones struggle, highlighting the urgency for structural adjustments within the industry [1] - M&A is viewed as a necessary strategy for companies to overcome development bottlenecks and optimize resource allocation [1][2] Group 2 - Historical examples from the U.S. and Europe show that M&A can significantly enhance market concentration and competitiveness, suggesting that China should adopt similar strategies [2] - Challenges such as cultural clashes and management conflicts can hinder successful M&A, as illustrated by the Daimler-Chrysler merger [2][3] - Chinese companies must focus on cultural integration and management collaboration during M&A to avoid negative outcomes [2][3] Group 3 - Companies should refine their core competencies and strategically seek partners with complementary strengths in technology and market channels [3] - It is crucial for firms to divest non-core businesses and concentrate resources on core technology and brand development to improve integration efficiency [3] - The government plays a vital role in creating a fair market environment and should establish effective bankruptcy exit mechanisms to eliminate inefficient enterprises [3][4] Group 4 - Local protectionism has been identified as a barrier to industry consolidation, necessitating a shift in government attitudes to promote cross-regional cooperation [4] - The M&A wave presents strategic opportunities for leading companies to expand and for weaker firms to avoid market elimination through partnerships [4] - The future of the global automotive industry will favor those companies that can effectively seize M&A opportunities and achieve successful integration [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry mirrors that of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, with both sectors facing challenges from price wars and cost-cutting measures that threaten innovation and overall industry health [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The price war in the PV sector has led to a significant decline in prices across the supply chain, with prices for polysilicon and components dropping nearly 30%, despite a 28.3% year-on-year increase in new installations [2][3]. - Major PV companies, including Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., have reported substantial revenue declines and losses, indicating that the aggressive pricing strategies are unsustainable [2][3]. - The NEV industry is currently experiencing a similar price war, with many companies unable to differentiate their products, leading to increased losses and cash flow issues [2][3]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Market Dynamics - The PV industry has faced severe overcapacity, driven by both market competition and local government incentives, which has historically led to inefficiencies and a poor market experience [3][4]. - The NEV sector is beginning to see similar patterns, with calls from industry leaders to halt new factory constructions and instead utilize existing overcapacity [3][4]. - The PV industry is now encouraging mergers and acquisitions to consolidate and eliminate low-quality capacity, a trend that is expected to emerge in the NEV sector as well [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Intellectual Property - The lack of intellectual property protection has hindered innovation in the PV sector, with new technologies quickly becoming common knowledge and not providing competitive advantages to early innovators [5][6]. - The NEV industry is undergoing a transformation that emphasizes the importance of innovation, particularly in software and artificial intelligence, necessitating both investment in R&D and protection of innovative outcomes [5][6]. - A supportive market environment that encourages and protects innovation is essential for the long-term success of both the PV and NEV industries in the global market [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry mirrors that of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, with both sectors facing challenges from price wars and cost-cutting measures that threaten innovation and overall profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The price war in the PV sector has led to a significant decline in prices across the supply chain, with prices for polysilicon and components dropping nearly 30%, despite a 28.3% year-on-year increase in new installations [2]. - Major PV companies, including Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., have reported substantial revenue declines and losses, indicating that the aggressive pricing strategies are unsustainable [2][3]. - The NEV industry is experiencing similar pressures, with some companies facing increasing losses and cash flow issues, highlighting the risks of relying solely on price competition [2][3]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Market Dynamics - The PV industry has seen severe overcapacity, driven by both market competition and local government incentives, which has historically led to inefficiencies and market saturation [4]. - The NEV sector is beginning to echo these patterns, with calls from industry leaders for a halt to new factory constructions in favor of utilizing existing overcapacity [4][5]. - Mergers and acquisitions are being encouraged in both industries as a means to consolidate and eliminate low-quality capacity, supported by recent regulatory changes [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Intellectual Property - The lack of intellectual property protection has hindered innovation in the PV sector, where new technologies quickly become widely adopted without adequate rewards for the original innovators [6][7]. - The NEV industry must prioritize protecting innovation and fostering a supportive environment for technological advancements to avoid repeating the mistakes of the PV sector [6][7]. - A collaborative approach involving policy support is essential for creating a market environment that encourages and protects innovation across both industries [7][8].